4.40 4.

41
Probability and Queueing Thcory", Queueing Theory
Probability a custorner ytaås for more than queue,
12 mintnes is 1 —0.90=0.1. Note : In the above problem instead of waiting time in the
the waiting time in the system is öven then it becomes simple because
Let g be the rate of service
P (WT 12) = 0.1
We have to find g.
= 0.1
Given 12) = 0.1
12 = 0.1

= 0.1 e3 = 0.1
12

3- 12B log 0.1 = log—

10
= 0.1
12
3-12/1 = —log10 = -23026
12B = 3+2.3026
0.1
5.3026
12 — 0.44 customers per minute

(8 —A)12 = 0.44x 60 customersper hour = 26.40

- 0.1
26 customers per hour nearly.
_ e— —1) 12
= 0.1
Example7 Customers arrive at a one window drive-in bank according
to poisson distribution with mean 10 per hour. Service time pec
e- 0.1 customeris exponentialwith mean 5 minutes. The space in front of
'thewindowincluding that for a serviced car can accomodate a maximum
- 12B+3 = 0.4 ot three cars. Others can wait outside this space.
(i) is the probability that an arriving customer can drive directly
Solving using numerical method, the
'(it) What is the probability that an arriving customer will have to
we find 0.4 customer per minute wait outside the indicated space ?
(Lii)How long is an arriving customer expected to wait before being
= 0.4 x 60 customer per hour (ÅU 20111
served ?
= 24 customer per hour Solution: It is an MIMII type infinite capacity model.

the clerk must serve at the rate of 24 customersper hour. GivenI = 10 per hour
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 4.45
o Probabilityand Queueing Th eueing Theory

Example 9 : On average 96 patients per 24 hour day req

service of an emergency clinic. Also on average a patient require<.t
minutes of active attention. Assume that the facilitycan handle
one emergencyat a time. Supposethat it costs the clinic R.s.
patient treated to obtain an average servicingtime of 10 minutes
that each minute of in this average time would cost Rss,
per patient treated. How much would haye to be budgeted by the
to decrease the average size of the queue from 1! patient to 16
patient? [M.U-95, A.U-2003
Solution : It is a MIMI1 model I. 16
(u') 2 —4}"
Given1 = = 4 patientsLour 16

Mean service rate — = 10 minutes

= — = 6 patients/houi (u') 2 —4/ —32

10

Now waiting time is W

g = 8 or
g cannotbe —vel
s It ¯ 26
Service rate should be 8 patients per hour.
Average number of patients in the queue is L
. service time pcr patient = —brs
The number is to be reduced from 1—to —
= — X 60 minutes = 7.5 minutes.

Let L be the number of patients in the queue

decrease in time for each patient = 10 —7.5
minutes

= 2.5
 4.47
Theory
Queueing time taken is 1.5 minutes)
reach the correct
that to
(It is can be seated at the
10) minutes before
The budget required (or each patient = Rs. (ICO+ 2.5 X arrivesjust 2
personwho
film.
= Rs. 125
start of the
Thus to decrease the size of the queue, the budget per patient P (W i)
time 2 minutes)
should be increased from Rs. 100 to Rs. 125. (ii) P (total

Example 10 : In a cinema theatre people arrive to purchasetickets

at the average rate of 6 per minute and it takes 7.Ssecondson the - (g —1)1/2
average to purchase a ticket. If a person arrivesjust 2 minutesbefore
the picture starts and it takes exactlyIS minutesto reachthe correct 4; -(8-6) 1/2
seat after purchasing the ticket.
(i) Can be expect to be seated for the start of tbe picture? = 0.6321
(ii) What is the probability that he will be seated when the film starts?
be the time of arrival so that he is
(iii) How early should he arrive to ensure a 99%chanceof being Il(iii) Supposet minutesearlier
seated at the start of the film ? seated 99%, then
(tv) Vtmat is the probability that there is no customerin the system? = 0.99
[A.U 2010]

Solution . Given arrival rate — 6 people per minute

= 1 -.99 = 0.01
Service rate is g = secs/ ticket/ person
7.5 = 0.01
= — persons / minute e-2t = 0.01
-2 log (0.01) = -4.605
= 8 persons/ minute
= 2.3 minutes.
(i) Expected waiting time in the system is ws
This is the waiting time in the system.
That is to purchase ticket.
takes1.5 minutesto reach the seat after
f
minute; purchasing ticket.
•4/..Total time = 2.3 + . 1.5
3.8 minutes.
expected total time to purchase and reach the seat
*Hencehe must arrive atleast
= — + 1 — minutes 3.8 minutes earlier so as
is$ureof •seeingthe start to be 99%
of the film.
it.t
= 2 minutes.
F'.(no customer in
the system) = P
= 0.25.
4.48
e Probability and Queueing
Oueueing Theory 4.49
le li : Giventhe folloying
information
Machines at the averagerate of 3 per 1
Numberof idle machine hours = —x 24 = 8 hours
(ii) The hour. 3
breakdown follows poisson
process.
(iii) Cost ot idle' machine Total work is for 8 hrs.
hour is Rs. 10
(iv) Repairman A charges
R.s.S .per hour and services at the
rate of Idle machine hours cost - Rs. 10x8 80
4 per hour.
(v) Repairman B charges Rs.
7 per hour and servicesat the rate of
and Repairman charges = Rs. 7 x8 = 56
6 per hour. Assumingthe work Total cost = Rs. (80 + 56) - Rs. 136
shift for 8 hours, which repairman
should be hired ?
Since the total cost is less in the case of repairmanB, repairman
Solution : Mean breakdown rate =
A 3 per hour B shouldbe hired.
For repairman A Example12 : At a petrol pump, customers arrive in a poisson process
Mean servicerate g = 4 per hour an average time of 5 minutes betweenarrivals. time-inter-vals
betweenservices follow exponential distribution with a mean time of
Waitingtime of the machinein the system $ •2 minutes. By how much should the now of customers be increased
is
to justify the openingof a second service point if the managementis
w 1 1 willingto open the same provided the customer has to wait for S
= 1 hour.
minutes for the service ?
The work is for 8 hrs.
Solution : Give -average arrival rate A = — per hour
Number of machinesarrivingper day —8 x 3=24
Number of idle machine hours — 12 per hour
= 24 hrs
Servicetime is exponentialwith mean 2 minutes
Idle machinehours cost = Rs. 10x 24 = Rs.240
• 1
= — 60
Repair charges per minute = — per hour = 30 per hour
- Rs. 40 2 2
Total cost Rs. Rs. 280 Let A' be the new arrivalratc so that a second senice point can
{4be open.
For repairman B
1 1
= 3 per hour Now
30 —1'
— 6 per hour Given that the customer's waiting time is 5 minutes.
1 1 1
w 5
s 3.0.; W = 5 minutes= — hours
6-3 3 60
4. SO 4.51
•Queueing '17teory
Probability and Queueing would have to be requested only once in twenty
out of order
t.•wq ws-hl mes ?
IJ model.
olution: It is [MIMI
30—1' ¯ Given
20 per hour

60 per hour in good weather

¯
30 —A' 30 60
301 30 per hour in bad weather

that the servicing Éme is landing time, and

We should consider
30 —A ' field in the stack as waiting in the queue.
60 30 60 planesflyingover the
7(30 — ') = 60 202
= good weather
7 x 30 -71' = 60 60 (60 - 20)
202 = — in bad weather
71' = 210—60= 150 30 (30 - 20) 3

150
= 21.43 Waiting time

New arrival rate of customer is 21.43per hour. — hr in good weather

60 - 20 ¯ 40
In order to open a second service point the flowof hr in.bad weather
30-20 - 10
should bc increased from 12 per hour to atleast21 per hour.

Example 13 : mean rate of arrival of planes at an airport during' — X 60 = 1.5 min in good weather
the peak period is 20 per hour, but the actual numberof arrivalsink
any hour follows a poisson distribution. In good weatheran average — X 60 = 6 min in bad weather
10
or 60 planes per hour can land and in bad weatheran averageof 30,
planes per hour can land, but the actual number landedin any bout If to is the mædmumstack and landing time to be allowed,
follows a poisson distribution with respectiveaverages. thereis beyondwhichpriorityout of order is to be requested.
congestion, the planes are forced to fly over the field in the stack'
waiting the landing of other planes tbat arrivedearlier. 0.05
20
(i) How many planes would be flying over the field in the stack
an average in good weather and in bad weather? 40 to =
.05 in good weathcr
(ii) 110"' long plane would be in the stack and in the process 10 to = .05 in bad weather
landing in good and bad weather ?
(iii) How much stack and landing time to allowso that prioritytiff," 0.075hr = 4.5 min in good weather
0.299hr = 18 rnin in bad weather
 452
e Probability and Queueing
Thcoryo Queueing Theory•
Example 14. Customers 4.5.3
arrive at a one-man
a Poisson process barbershop according
with a mean inter-arrival (ii) ws = 60 minutes
Customers spend an time of 12 minutes...
average of 10 minutes in
the barber's chair.
(i) the expected number (iii) W = Ws -p 1 = 60-10 = 50 minutes
of customers in the
barbershop and.
(ii) How much time (iv) p (WT> t)
can a customer expect
to spend in the barber's
1 x30
(iii) is the average time p (WT> 30) = e- 10- L)
12 - 0.6065
customers spend in the queue
(iv) ?
is the probability that 4 4
greater than 30 the waiting time in the system is 10
min? (v) = 0.4823
12
(v) is the probability that
more than 3 customers are Example 15. A telephone exc.hangereceives one call every 4 minutes
I in the
[AU 2008,20091 and connects one call every 3 minutes. If the rate of arrivals follows
Solution : Since it is a
one-man barber-shop,it is a Poisson distribution, find
(M/M/I) : (m/FIFO) model. (i) the average waiting time for a call in the queue.
Given mean inter arrival (ii) the average waiting for a call in the queueing system. (AU 20091
time = 12 minutes.
Solution: It is a singleserver model.
Since it follows exponential, 1
12 1 1
Given A = —
4 per minute, g = — per minute.
3
1
= 12 customer peraminute.
Now (i) wq = ws-å = 12 3 = 9 minutes
Senice rate is exponemial
with mean 10 minutes. 1 1
— 12 minutes
1 1 1
= 10mt g = —
10 customer per minute.
Example 16.A concentrator receives messages from a group of terminals
(i) Now ws 1 1 10 x 12
= 60 minutes. and transmits then over a single transmission line. Suppose that
1 1 2
10 12 messagesarrive according to a Poisson process at a rate of one
message every 4 milliseconds and suppose that message transmission
Required 1 times are exponentially distributed with mean 3 millisecond. Find the
= X 60 — 5 customers
12
mean total delay in the system. What percentage increase iu arrival
and 1 10 rate results in a doubling of the above mean total delay? (AU 20081
q 4.17 customers
12 Note ; Mean total delay •means average waiting time in the system,
 neory•
and Queueing
o Probability

for
Solution : Given arrival rate, A = messagesper ms. Derive the formula customers in the queue.
1. number of Lg of
(i) Average the queue for
SerGce time is exponentialwith mean 3 ms. waitingtime of a customer in
(ii) Average model.
(MIM[I) : (ØIFIFO)
—= 3 = — messageper ms.
the time spent on his jobs has an
fmds that
repairman•
.2. A TV with mean 30 minutes. If he repairs sets
Mean total delay in the systemis Ws = 11 = 12 ms
exponentialdistribution and if the arrival of sets is
which they came in
in the order in
an average of rate of 10 sets per 8
approüately poissonwith
repairman's expected idle time each day?
Double the mean waiting time = 2 X 12 = 24 ms hours day (i)what is the
head of the average set first brought
(ii)How many jobs are a
L.et A be the new arrival rate, then [MKU-97J [AU 20121

24 =
[Ans. (i) 3 hrs (ii) 2 sets]

A duplicatingmachinemaintained for office use is operated by

24
an officeassistantwho earns Rs. 5 per hour. The time to complete
24
eachjob variesaccordingto an exponential distribution with mean
6 minutes.Assumingthat arrivals are poisson with A = 5/hr and
Increase in arrival rate = 1 24 24 an 8-hr day is used as a base, determine [AU 20081
(i) the percentageidle time of the machine
24
Of increase (ii) the averagetime a job is in the system
(iii) averageearning of the assistant per day.
[Ans. (i) 50%, (ii) 12 min (iii) Rs. 40]
% increase in arrival = —X 100 = 16.6 17%
[Yint: Averageearningper day = 8 X 5
X(average time per job)
Note : In this problem an increase of nearly 17%in the arrival
rate results in an increase of 100% in the mean waitingtime in
system. -4. Coasideca self service
store with one cashier. Assume
arrivalsand exponential poisson
service times. Suppose that nine
arriveon the average customers
every 5 minutes and the
10 in 5 cashier can serve
minutes. Find
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