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Subject PSYCHOLOGY

Paper No and Title Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No and Title Module No. 26: Multiple Regression

Module Tag PSY_P2_M26

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Learning Outcomes
2. Introduction
2.1 Need for multiple regression
2.2 Purpose of Multiple regression
3. Multiple Regression
3.1 What is multiple regression
3.2 Model for multiple regression
3.3 Assumptions of multiple regression
4. Applications of multiple regression analysis
4.1 Numerical example for Multiple Regression Analysis
4.2 Practical Applications of Multiple Regression Analysis
4.3 Using SPSS for regression analysis
4.4 Multiple Regression Analysis SPSS (IBM SPSS 20) commands
5. Summary

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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1. Learning Outcomes
After studying this module, you shall be able to

 Understand the concept of multiple regression,

 Differentiate simple regression from multiple regression
 Learn the method of making predictions as in how does the outcome change if there are
many predictors
 Analyze the relationship among variables as to how strong is the influence of each
predictor on the outcome as well as how does the outcome change over a period of time
 Identify situations in which one can apply multiple regression

2. Introduction

2.1 Need for Multiple Regression

The fate of a movie is counted in terms of the money it earns through the number of people it
attracts. A movie becomes a hit and the masses come when all the ingredients of the film fall in
place. At the same time, it is quite possible that one component like the music may have had an
important role in drawing the audience to the theatres even if the story was not that interesting. At
the same time, a good story can make a small budget film without big stars also a huge success.
Thus, it would be interesting to see whether and how measures like star cast, story, music, dialogs
and publicity relate to the success of the film.

So, out of the number of available variables influencing the fate of a movie which ones have
contributed significantly would be interesting to know. This would perhaps be useful for other film
makers too, as to how to prepare a perfect recipe for a successful film in future.

2.2 Purpose of Multiple Regression

Multiple regression is a term used first by Pearson in 1908. His aim was to understand more about
the relationships between many independent or predictor variables like the components of the film,
discussed in the example above, and a dependent or a criterion variable that is the audience response
to the released film. The social and natural sciences use multiple regression procedures widely as
they allow the researcher to ask ‘what is the best predictor of ….’. For instance educational
researhcer would want to know what predicts success in high school or a clinical psychologist
wanting to know what predicts a good quality of life for an individual.

3. Multiple Regression

3.1 What is Multiple Regression?

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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Multiple regression is a statistical tool that allows one to examine how multiple independent
variables relate to a dependent variable. Once this identification is made, information from all the
independent variables can be taken and used to make more powerful and accurate predictions about
the way things are and why they are like that.

In order to calculate the effects of two or more independent variables on a dependent variable,
multiple regression method is used. It enables one to predict and weigh the relationship between
two or more explanatory or independent variables and an explained dependent variable.

For instance, level of achievement in an examination may not just be affected by the study time,
quality of teaching, amount of practice only but also the level of intelligence possessed by the
student. Now, if one wishes to see how much marks a student would obtain if he/she studies for 30
hours per week and has an intelligence score of 110 can be carried out only with multiple regression
method.

Thus, multiple regression help the researcher to see the predicted effects of a particular independent
variable on a dependent variable, when other independent variables are also present. It takes in a
range of variables and enables one to calculate the relative weightings of independent variables on
a dependent variable. But one must be cautious in the sense that variables may interact with each
other and may be inter-correlated.

3.2 Model for Multiple Regression

A reading of the modules on regression and simple regression analysis would make the readers
realize the importance of “the line of best fit” in regression and prediction. The relationship between
variables can be best described by fitting a straight line running through the data points with
minimal deviances, as functioning on the least square criterion thus, leaving the scope for minimal
residuals .

The straight line becomes our model which is used to predict the values of Y (criterion variable)
from values of X (predictor variables). This straight line assesses the fit of the model by looking at
the deviations between the model which is largely the mean model and the actual data collected.
The mean model is the simplest model available because on an average, it will be a fairly good
guess of an outcome. These deviations are the vertical distances between what the model predicted
and each data point that was actually observed. The differences mentioned here are called residuals.
The data points fall both above which shows that the model underestimates their value and below
the model which shows that the model overestimates their value, resulting in both positive and
negative differences. Since these differences cancel each other on summing them up, the
differences are squared to overcome this problem. The squared differences give an assessment of
how well a line fits the data. Multiple regression becomes an extension of the linear regression
model studied earlier just that the situation has several predictors now. However, the basic equation
remains the same.

Outcomei = (model) + errori

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

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But here, for every extra predictor included, a coefficient is added. Hence, each predictor variable
has its own coefficient and the outcome variable is predicted from a combination of all the variables
multiplied by their respective coefficients and a residual term. Hence, the new equation for multiple
regression analysis turns out to be..

where,

Yi= outcome variable

b1 = coefficient of the first predictor X1
b2 = coefficient of the second predictor X2
bn = coefficient of the nth predictor Xn
€I = difference between predicted and observed value of Y for the
ith participant
X = scores of independent variables

Hence, we are trying to find the linear combination of predictors that correlate maximally
with the outcome variable.

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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3.3 Assumptions in Multiple regression

Multiple regression models assumes:

 Relationship between variables is linear and if curvature is evident in relationships, then

transforming the variables needs to be considered.

 Residuals that is the predicted and observed values’ differences are distributed normally or
follow the normal distribution.

4. APPLICATIONS FOR MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS

4.1 Numerical example

There are some mammals that burrow into the ground for some time to survive. Since the quality
of the air in the burrows is not the same and as good as the air above the ground, some mammals
change the way they breathe so as to sustain themselves in the poor air quality conditions under the
ground.

Some researchers wanted to explore the way nestling bank swallows alter their breathing. A
randomised experiment was conducted by the researchers on 120 (= n) nestling bank swallows.
These birds varied the percentage of oxygen at different levels (13%, 15%, 17% & 19%) and the
percentage of carbon dioxide at different leves as well (0%, 3%, 4.5%, 6% and 9%). Under each of
the resulting 5x4 =20 experimental conditions, total volume of air breathed per minute for each of
the 6 nestling bank swallows was observed by the researchers.

 Response (y): percentage increase in "minute ventilation," (Vent), i.e., total volume of air
breathed per minute.
 Potential predictor (x1): percentage of oxygen (O2) in the air the baby birds breathe.
 Potential predictor (x2): percentage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air the baby birds
breathe.

The scatter plot matrix of the data obtained by the researchers was:

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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When the predictor variables are 2 and the response variable is 1, a three dimensional scatter plot
can be made. The first order model with 2 quantitative predictors could be summarized by the same
equation as before:

Yi = (β0 + β1xi1 + β2 xi2) + ϵi

where,
Yi = percentage of minute ventilation of nestling bank swallow i
xi1 = percentage of oxygen exposed to nestling bank swallow i
xi2 = percentage of carbon dioxide exposed to nestling bank swallow i

and the independent error terms εi follow a normal distribution with mean 0 and equal
variance σ2.

By using the following equation and feeding the data in the computer, the output revealed

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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25.6% of variation in minute ventilation being reduced by taking into account percentages of
oxygen and carbon di oxide. The P-values for the t-tests suggested slope parameter for carbon di
oxide level (P<0.001) being significantly different

from 0 while the slop pearamter for oxygen level (P=0.408) is not. Lastly, the P value for the
analysis of variance F-test (P<0.001) suggested that the model containing oxygen and carbon di
oxide levels was more useful in predicting minute ventilation than not taking into account the two
predictors.

4.2 Practical Applications of Regression Analysis

The multiple regression method can be employed in

 Areas of demand management and data analysis in the field of business
 Social, psychological or any research of any field like agriculture to predict the
yield of a crop for instance by studying the role of quality of seed, soil fertility,
temperature, rainfall etc.

Focus of analysis: the purpose of carrying out the multiple regression analysis in
quantitative psychological research is to analyze the extent to which two or more
independent variables relate to a dependent variable.

Variables involved: there may be two or more than two independent variables which are
continuously scaled. The dependent variables are also continuously scaled i.e. either
interval or ratio scale of measurement.

Realtioship of the participants’ scores across the groups being compared: to be suitable
for multiple regression analysis, the participants should have scored on all the variables, or
in other words the scores are dependent upon each other.
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Assumptions underlying multiple regression analysis:

The assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity, linearity, independence of errors and

multicollinearity are applicable to multiple regression analysis.

4.3 Using SPSS for regression analysis

The pearsons’ product moment correlation is a popular statistical method to assess the basic
statistic in regression analysis. There are three types of regression analyses:
 Standard/ simultaneous regression analysis
 Sequential/ hierarchical regression analysis
 Statistical/ stepwise regression analysis

The standard or simple regression analysis is also referred to as simulataneousregression analysis.

All predictor variables are entered in theregression equation at once. Each predictor variable
isevaluated in terms of what it adds uniquely to the prediction of the criterion variable . simple
regression analysis is used in exploratory and hypothesis building regression model. Although it is
a much less used approach in quantitative research.

4.4 Multiple Regression Analysis SPSS (IBM SPSS 20) commands:

(source: W.E. Martin & K.D. Bridgmon (2012) quantitative and statistical research methods from
hypothesis to results. Jossey- Bass, A wiley imprint, San francisco.)

Let us take an example:

A researcher wants to studywhether doctoral student’s lower interests in scientist activities more
highly predict higher dissertation stress than do their interests in practitioners’ activities. The
scientist and practitionerscales of the SPI are predistor variables and higher scores reflect higher
interests. The dependent variable in the study is the Dissertation Stress Inventory(DSI) , and higher
scores translate to hger dissertation stress perceived by the sample ofdoctoral students.
Bivariate correlation coeffecient, multiple correlation coeffecient and sequential regression
analysis will be conducted at ∞= .05.

1. Open SPSS data file called MRA-data and click on Analyze>regression>linear.

2. Click over DSI under dependent:
3. Under independent(s): > click over SPIScient then click on the next button to the upper
right. The SPIScient disappears and the program stores the first predictor variable. Click
over SPIPract and click on the next button. You have set the model you want to test.
4. Click on statistics button >check on estimates, confidence intervals, and type in
95besides level(%): check on model fit,R squared change, descriptives, part and
partial correlations and collinearity diagnostics and click on continue.
5. Click on plots button and click over *ZRESID to the Y: box and *ZPRED to the X: .
under standardized residual plots click on histogram and normalprobability plot and
click continue.
6. Click on the save button >under distances click mahalanobis and click continue and click
OK
7. Save the results

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression
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5. Summary
 Multiple regression is a term used first by Pearson, 1908. His aim was to understand more
about the relationships between many independent or predictor variables
 Multiple regression is a statistical tool that allows one to examine how multiple
independent variables relate to a dependent variable.
 Multiple regression becomes an extension of the linear regression model studied earlier
just that the situation has several predictors now.
 Each predictor variable has its own coefficient and the outcome variable is predicted from
a combination of all the variables multiplied by their respective coefficients and a residual
term. Hence, the new equation for multiple regression analysis turns out to be..

 The multiple regression method can be employed in

 Areas of demand management and data analysis in the field of business
 Social, psychological or any research of any field like agriculture to predict the
yield of a crop for instance by studying the role of quality of seed, soil fertility,
temperature, rainfall etc.
 Along with this the text also helps the readers in using SPSS20 for analyzing the data for
multiple regression analysis.

PSYCHOLOGY Paper No. 2: Quantitative Methods

Module No. 26: Multiple Regression