TASK-3

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS REPORT FOR GDP

FY20 FY19 FY18

QTR Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1

GROWTH 3.1 4.7 -7.54 -23.92 5.67 5.59 6.2 7.1 8.18 7.64 6.47 5.78
RATE (%)

REPORT
Forecast changes in GDP FY21 Q1:(Analysis based on current
economic factors)
We expect Q1 GDP growth to stay high, growing to 0.7 percent, due to a substantial increase
in government spending. Following that, we expect growth momentum to cool as government
spending slows after the Q1 lift and the terms of trade impulse from higher commodity prices
becomes more pessimistic. Household financial savings seem to have stabilized somewhat
earlier than anticipated after peaking during the lockdown in Q2 last year, resulting in the faster
recovery rate seen in recent activity reports.

Comparative analysis of previous year

1) FY20 – Q4 V Q3: -

The growth rate of Q4 is 3.1% and for Q3 is 4.1%

a) There is 1% fall in growth rate, because of the global pandemic.

b) 8 core sectors industries fell to 6.5%

c) Factory output as measured by IIP (Index of industry output) 16.7 but it risen by 4.5

d) Decline of sale in last quarter.

2) FY20 Q4 V FY 19 Q4: -

The growth rate for Fy2020 Q4 is 3.1% and for Fy2019 Q4 is 5.8%.

a) Fall of growth in Q4 of F.Y 2020 is 2.7%

b) Global pandemic and the sale are not improving as estimated as compare to last year.

c) Services sectors shut downs like tourism, hospitality and aviation because of the lockdown.

d) Lack of private investments.

3) FY20 – Q3 V Q2: -

The growth rate is for Fy2020 Q3 is 4.1% and for Q2 4.4%

a) Fall in growth is .3%

b) Unemployment other refinery sectors were not improving.

4) FY20 Q3 V FY19 Q3: -

For Q3 of Fy 2020 growth rate is 4.4% and for Fy2019 is 6.6%

a) Fall in growth rate is 2.2%

b) Manufacturing industries slow output in profit making.

c) Decline Capital spending by state government.

d) Agriculture and mining showed higher growth.

5) FY20 Q2 V Q1

The growth rate for Q1 fy 2020 is5.2% and 4 .4% for Q2

a) The fall in growth rate is 0.8.

b) Total value of goods and services produced in India is 24% less than total value of goods
and services.

c) Indian economy fell 27% in q1 as compare to previous year.

d) Construction industry fell up to 0.3%.

6) FY 20 Q2 V FY19 Q2: -

The growth rates for Q2 fy 2020 is 4.4 % and for fy 2019 Q2 is7.0%

a) Fell in growth rate in fy 2020 Q2 is 2.6%

b) Demand from citizen and private business fell

c) Construction and metals sectors is not operational

d) Real estate, professional services declined.

7) FY20 Q1 V FY19 Q4: -

The growth rate for Q1 fy 2020 is 5.2% and for Q4 FY 2019 is 5.8%.

a) Fell in growth rate is .6%.

b) Goods and services production cost is higher than the sales.

c) Agriculture and mining sectors growth is improving. Manufacturing industries were decline
to 0.3%.

8)FY20 Q1 V FY19 Q1: -

The growth rate for Q1 FY 2020 is 5.2% and for FY 2019 is 6.8%

a) Fell in growth rate is 1.6%

b) Refineries and fuels import cost is high.

c) Slowdowns in 8 core industries.

d) Global decline rate is high.

 LATEST ECONOMIC REFORMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON
INDIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH
Economic reforms in India apply to the neoliberal policies implemented by the Narsimha-Rao
government in 1991, when India was experiencing a serious economic recession as a result of
foreign debt. This crisis occurred largely as a result of inefficiency in economic management
during the 1980s. The receipts produced by the government were insufficient to cover the
expenditures. As a result, it was forced to borrow heavily from international creditors in order
to repay the loan. As a result, they found themselves in a debt trap. To manage the situation,
India asked the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan, and
obtained $7 million. As a result, these international organizations wanted India to relax current
trade barriers and open its doors to other nations. As a result, India implemented the LPG
(Liberalization, Privatization, and Globalization) reforms as part of the Economic Reforms.

Industrial Policy Reforms

The term "industrial policy" refers to the practices, principles, laws, guidelines, and regulations
that govern the country's industrial undertakings and industrialization trend. It outlines the
government's commitment to the growth of the manufacturing sector. It specifies the positions
of the state, corporate, and joint and cooperative sectors in the growth of industries. It also
shows the importance of the big, medium, and small sectors. It includes fiscal and monetary
policies, tariff policy, labor policy, the government's attitude toward foreign capital, and the
involvement of multinational corporations in the industrial sector's growth.

Trade Reforms

Trade reform plans have two primary goals. The first goal is to boost economic growth and job
creation by optimizing capital distribution and overall economic performance. The paper
concludes that, when applied properly, trade policy adjustment has led to better economic
growth in developed countries.

Fiscal Sector Reforms

Tax reforms, spending reforms, and institutional reforms in the government borrowing
mechanism are all part of India's fiscal sector reforms. The conclusion was that the primary
goal of the fiscal reforms package was to reduce the scale of the deficit and debt in comparison
to GDP. To meet these goals, more money had to be raised by taxes, while unproductive and
non-plan spending had to be curtailed.

Monetary Policy Reforms

The main developments in Indian monetary policy is lowering CRR and SLR. During India's
economic reform era, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) are
steadily reduced. It has been reduced from a previous peak of 15% plus an additional CRR of
10.5 percent to the present stage of 6%.

Finance Sector Reforms

Financial sector reforms are changes to the banking system and capital markets. A well-
functioning stock market and an effective banking system are needed to leverage household
savings and channel them to productive uses. Save and profitable spending at high rates are
critical for economic development. Although the financial system and the stock market had
seen remarkable growth in terms of volume of operations, they had several flaws in terms of
performance and consistency of operations.

Impact of Economic Reforms

Positive Impacts

The following are some of the new private sector players in India's economy: Airline
companies, television networks, educational institutions such as schools, colleges, and
universities, hospitals, mobile phone service providers, financial service operators, courier
services, the retail sector, and so on. Because of the arrival of many such private companies,
rivalry among them to offer the best service to consumers has increased. In the Indian economy,
both domestic and foreign private sector players exist. In the air transport market, for example,
private carriers compete with one another as well as with governments. In India, there are about
twenty private air transport operators. The recent economic policies are also helping to convert
black capital into white money. In other words, this program has encouraged consumers
through a variety of liberal approaches.

Negative Impacts

The reforms concentrated mostly on the formal sector of the economy; agriculture, the urban
informal sector, and forest-dependent communities saw no reforms. As a result, there has been
uneven development and an unfair distribution of economic freedom among citizens. Health
and education are two examples of overlooked social fields.

Macroeconomic Factors
Inflation is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators that economists watch because
of its position as a predictor of undesirable economic factors. These causes may include
increased unemployment, a decrease in the value of the currency, a decrease in the amount of
products a currency can buy, and an increase in GDP. One of the consequences of inflation is
that it decreases the worth of currency, requiring more money to be added toward the buying
of a fixed amount of goods.

The reluctance of potential employees to achieve gainful jobs is referred to as unemployment.

The level of unemployment in a country is one measure of the country's economic wellbeing.
Many causes, such as organizational downsizing, mergers, the introduction of automation
technology, and work outsourcing to other countries, may have a negative impact on this rate.
Some claim that illegal immigration has an effect on people's willingness to find work, but
critics argue that employment filled by illegals are usually low-paying or undesirable.

The gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of a country's economic prosperity. It is

calculated by measuring a nation's economic performance, or how much it has made, over the
span of a year, allowing the country to equate its progress to previous years and other nations.
Although estimating a country's GDP is not the only way to calculate that country's economic
growth, it is one of the most accurate.

PREPARED BY:

Abin Som

Christ University Bangalore

Junior Research Analyst

(21FMCG30 B5)