HCMC UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY MIDTERM EXAM - SEMESTER 1

Faculty of Applied Science Subject: Applied Probability

Department of Applied Mathematics Duration:100 minutes
Date: October 24, 2019 (TT01)
Score
Department of Mathematics: Dr. Nguyen Tien Dung

Lecturer: Dr. Nguyen Tien Dung

Student’s full name: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Student Id: . . . . . . . . . . . . .

- You are allowed to use your OWN materials and calculator. Total available score: 110.
- You MUST fill in your full name and student ID on this question sheet. There are 6 questions on 4 pages.

Question 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 25 points

An array of 25 LED bulbs is used in an automotive light. The probability that a bulb is defective
is 0.05 and defective bulbs occur independently. Determine the following
(a) [10 points] The probability that an automotive light has two or more defective bulbs.
(b) [5 points] The expected number of defective bulbs used in an automotive light.
(c) [10 points] The probability that at least 5 automotive lights must be checked to observe the
third one with two or more defective bulbs.

Question 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 20 points

Components of a certain type are shipped to a supplier in batches of ten. Suppose that 50% of
all such batches contain no defective components, 30% contain one defective component, and 20%
contain two defective components. Two components from a batch are randomly selected and tested.
What are the probabilities associated with 0, 1, and 2 defective components being in the batch under
the condition that neither tested component is defective.
Midterm Exam - Applied Probability Semester 1 - October 24, 2019 (TT01)

Question 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 10 points

The following circuit operates if and only if there is a path of functional devices from left to right.
The probability that each device functions is as shown. Assume that the probability that these
device function independently.

A 0.8 D 0.7
C 0.7
B 0.9 E 0.9

Find the probability that the circuit operates.

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Midterm Exam - Applied Probability Semester 1 - October 24, 2019 (TT01)

Question 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 15 points

Grasshoppers are distributed at random in a large field according to a Poisson process with param-
eter 3 individuals per square yard.
(a) [5 points] What is the probability that there are at least three grasshoppers in 5 square yard?
(b) [10 points] How large should the radius R of a circular sampling region be taken so that the
probability of finding at least one in the region equals 0.95?

Question 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 20 points

Let X be a continuous random variable with cdf

0, x<0


x
F (x) = [1 + ln(4/x)] , 0 ≤ x < 4

 4
1, x ≥ 4.

Determine
(a) [10 points] the pdf and the mean of X
(b) [10 points] the conditional probability P (X > 1|X ≤ 2).

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Midterm Exam - Applied Probability Semester 1 - October 24, 2019 (TT01)

Question 6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total: 20 points

The joint probability distribution of the number X of
cars and the number Y of buses per signal cycle at a
proposed left-turn lane is displayed in the accompanying y
joint probability table. x 0 1 2 Total
(a) [10 points] Determine c and E(X|Y = 1). 0 0.250 0.150 0.010
(b) [10 points] Suppose the left-turn lane is to have a 1 c 0.03 0.020
capacity of five cars, and that one bus is equivalent 2 0.125 0.075 c
to three cars. What is the probability of an overflow Total
during a cycle?

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