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WGSN: Trend Curve - Low & No-Alcohol Drinks
WGSN: Trend Curve - Low & No-Alcohol Drinks
Why low-and-no alcohol? While a small percentage (less than 4%) of the alcoholic
Social media Online retail
drink market, this category is growing and diversifying, with more variety and good
quality products meeting the needs of an increasing number of consumers seeking Penetration Market growth Top growth category
moderation and sobriety. This category offers many opportunities for various drinks
brands.
4.2% + 208% Ready-to-drink
Dr ivers : the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated interest in maintaining good health and Buzz Share
building immunity; cutting down or out alcohol was part of that, as was drinking at +195% YoY + 9ppts UK
home in 2020. But the low-and-no trend has been rising for years, with social media + 40%
(February 2021)
activity highest during summer and Dry January. New 0% ABV spirit offerings from big + 29ppts US
and boutique brands and 4-7% ABV canned hard seltzer riffs are driving expansion. Dry January Driver
UK US
Trend level: 4+% penetration across all stages; moving beyond Innovator mocktail 8.5% Penetration
Hard Seltzer
recipes to brands and retailers promoting products. (2021)
(2019-2021)
Online retail growth: in the UK and US, low-and-no styles are creeping up and
taking 3.27% (UK) and 3.46% (US) share of the Beer, Wine & Spirits category. US Penetration Categories to watch
standout hard seltzer is driving ready-to-drink domination in both markets, a sign of +3.1ppts (2021) Distilled botanical spirits
broader RTD opportunity.
Early Majority No-alcohol craft beer
Ones to watch: 0% ABV spirits riffing off pioneer Seedlip; canned low-and-
no cocktails; zero-alcohol cra beer; de-alcoholised wine. Mainstreamers De-alcoholised wine
Action p oints : with health a top consumer concern and delicious zero-alcohol
options rising fast, now is the time to launch brands, develop new products and look
for ways to add creative, alluring line-ups to bar, restaurant and other hospitality
WGSN Trend Curve, social media and online retail data
outlet menus. These products also fit in retail locations where alcohol cannot play,
like gyms, spas, retail gi shops and health food stores, offering wider leveraging
opportunities.
1
Food & Drink Trend Curve methodology
WGSN uses proprietary data from sister brands Edge by Ascential and
Yimian by Ascential to produce high-value market intelligence across
the food industry covering digital commerce and social media insights
and analytics. Innovator Early Adopter Early Majority Mainstreamer
2
Overview
Innovation in low-and-no alcohol drinks is speeding up, expanding global
offerings for mindful drinkers with better tasting zero-proof beer, more styles of Volume of low & no alcohol drinks in Beers,
distilled spirits and aperitifs, and new canned wines and mocktails. Now is the Wine & Spirits, split by category
time to dial in this exciting trend.
Beers, Lager, Ale and Cider Ready to Drink Spirits Wine
We have been tracking this trend for years, calling out botanical spirits in 2018, hard
seltzers in 2019, and 'temperance cocktails', zero-proof beer and new hard canned
UK US
drinks in 2020. Yet these moderated sips are only a tiny sliver of the Beer, Wine &
700
Spirits category, less than 4%. But they are growing globally and projected to rise
31% in volume by 2024, moving fastest in the US, Germany and Spain, according to a
2021 study by drinks market analysts IWSR.
42%
The same study reports that consumers mostly drink low-and-no at home (64% of
23%
occasions) to reduce the effects of alcohol. Some, 58%, start with full-alcohol drinks,
45%
then cut back, while 14% abstain from alcohol altogether. With so many good-tasting
Volume
products and mocktail recipes online, sober curious drinkers driven by interest in 350 48%
good tasting drinks as well as health maintenance are discovering this dynamic 14%
6% 30%
sector and joining a buzzy, growing trend enhanced by NPD. 51%
5%
What does this mean for you? 23% 23%
35%
With good taste, positive health benefits and expanded choices luring new users to 21%
29%
low-and-no alcohol drinks, now is the time for drink brands, restaurants and 9%
4%
22%
hospitality businesses, and retailers to strategise how to make more space for these 26% 13%
27% 21% 22%
options. Find the products and assortments that are in line with your consumer 37% 27%
0
targets, communicate ingredients and alcohol levels clearly, and help consumers 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
discover low-and-no replacements for favourite drinks.
3
Who's been talking about low-and-no alcohol drinks?
Innovators have led the conversation since 2018 but in early 2021, every stage joined in,
leading to signi cant increases in posts with mocktail recipes (many using new botanical
spirits), zero-proof beer promotions and lots of Dry January commentary – pro and con
0
2018 2019 2020 2021
Peaks from Dry January and the UK's "Eat Out to Help Out" restaurant meal and non-alcoholic drink promotion in summer 2020 (WGSN Trend Curve, social media data)
4
“If you’re looking into a Dry January, might we suggest the hoppy Brooklyn Special
Effects? The alcohol-free brew (0.4%) is dry-hopped with the aromatic Citra and
Amarillo hops, and has a crisp, fresh taste. Alcohol-free beer has seen huge growth in
recent years and became more popular than ever during a turbulent 2020. Driven by
an increased focus on health and wellness and awareness of the great taste and
options available, the Carlsberg Group’s alcohol-free brews portfolio grew 29%
between July and September of 2020.”
5
What's happening on social media?
The buzz on this topic has been exploding, with an increase of 50% YoY in
February 2020, then rocketing up 195% YoY in February 2021, driven by Early Top keywords in low & no alcohol on social media in 2020
Majority and Mainstreamer in uencers touting products and Dry January
promotions. Follow the Buzz for NPD inspiration. hangoverfree
christmas tea joy_energise
Whoʼs talking? Low-and-no beer, spirit and RTD makers led the chatter, with 18.8% lemon encourage
penetration in February 2021, up from 4.7% the year before. Media publications,
ginger mocktail location
drink
retailers and cocktail bloggers joined in.
What are they shar ing? Just as vegan alternatives are now routinely shared in non- avor fruit beer lime
tonic
cocktail
texas
juice
vegan baking recipes, alcohol-free variations of popular cocktails are offered by bar
creators and promoted by restaurants and bars. Testimonials to the benefits of a syrup rum ice party
low-and-no alcohol lifestyle tout low calories and sugar, and better sleep – all hot vegan
wellness topics. spirit tequila
alcohol
lime_juice
caleno
What are they p itching? Botanic drink brands including UKʼs Everleaf, Caleño joy
bottle water
Drinks, and Seedlip along with its vermouth alternative, Aecorn, post how their
products fit into all types of lifestyles and drinking occasions, with Dry January beverage wine
leading. Sparkling and tonic waters and bitter brands offer recipes while breweries
and distilleries at all levels show off new low-and-no products. Restaurants offered
mocktail_drink
glass alcoholfreepineapple
drink delivery and in summer 2020, UK restaurants promoted the Eat Out to Help Out gin delivery recipe
scheme, with non-alcoholic drinks as part of the offer.
instadrink vodka
How you can action this : social media has done a great deal to promote the margarita lemon_juice
glamour, trendiness and wellness benefits of low-and-no alcohol drinking, even restriction nohangover
some of the time or for part of the year. Cool, Millennial-focused design, great lowalcohol_lowcalorie
6
“For those looking for a great night’s sleep, an #OldFashioned is one of our favourite
ways to enjoy #Nightcap☁ Indulgent and luxurious, this slow sipper will soothe your
palate, body and mind. What’s in it? ThreeSpirit Nightcap, Angostura bitters, orange
peel garnish , Maraschino cherries "
7
Social media close-up: Dry January
Alcohol Change UK reported 6.5 million adults intended to practise Dry January 2021, up from 3.9 million in
2020. Improving sleep, saving money and enjoying creative booze alternatives were drivers. We also saw a
major increase in social media posts as various brands discussed the topic.
10 2021
8.53%
@getgruvi
2020
Penetration (%)
2.83%
@lipton @morrisons
8
Social media close-up: mocktail styles
The Food & Drink In uencer Map is brimming with recipes for mocktails, some
variations on cocktail recipes, others designed to embrace the glory and full- Popular cocktails on social media with low & no alcohol twists
avoured variety these zero-proof sips can deliver. Take inspiration and don't
be shy to create or promote complex mocktails. Innovator Early Adopter Early Majority Mainstreamer
Mojito
Classic cocktail recipes are endlessly recra ed on social media, o en using a base
Margarita
of non-alcoholic beers or spirits, a new development thanks to the multitude of new
products exploding in retail. These are blended with fruit juices, teas, kombuchas Martini
and even coffee. Gin and tonic
Mojito: kiwi, matcha and pomegranate juice appeared in riffs on mojitos; Texas Negroni
retailer H-E-B suggested its cold-pressed mixers in Pineapple flavour; French
Piña colada
retailer Le Clerc promoted zero-proof Lagoa Mojito mixer for a summer drink
Bloody Mary
option
Sangria
Mar tini: espresso versions made with botanical spirits, martini glasses to make
any mocktail special, and low-and-no alcohol vermouths, including zero-proof Daiquiri
Vibrante and Floreale from Martini & Rossi gave dimension to the martini (and Mimosa
martiNO) Gimlet
Gin: low-and-no alcohol botanical spirits, led by pioneer Seedlip, have Moscow Mule
proliferated and are featured in myriad gin and tonics, some with apple juice,
Hot toddy
rhubarb-flavoured Clean Co, and premium tonic waters, like Fever Tree
Cosmopolitan
Negroni: or did you say, NOgroni? Seedlip's vermouth spin-off, Aecorn
0 2 4
Bitter, stands in for Campari when blended with blood orange soda. The brand % share of low/no alcohol
offers a ready-to-drink version
How you can action this : mocktails can be offered beyond the bar and sold
WGSN Trend Curve, social media data
anywhere if they are zero-proof. Move these creative sips to spas, health clubs and
wellness-oriented retail outlets.
9
Social media close-up: avour map
Chocolate, coffee, green tea avours, herbs and sweeteners join a wide range of fruit
beyond cocktail-classic citrus in low-and-no posts.
vanilla
coconut honey
maple green rhubarb blackberry
tea
mint rosemary
lime
hibiscus
grapefruit peach matcha guava
watermelon
blood orange
jasmine
lychee
Flavours called out in low-and-no alcohol social media posts (WGSN Trend Curve, social media data)
10
Online retail
Low-and-no alcohol products are growing in online retail, with frontrunner
styles emerging by global region as consumers, stuck at home for months, Share of low & no alcohol in Beers, Wines & Spirits
explore options. While a small slice of the massive alcohol category, low-and-no Online Retail Q1 2019 - 2021
is on track to take share and expand much further.
UK US
2020 was a setback year with the loss of on-premise sales. The flipside was more 4
retail sales for home drinking, where consumers could comfortably explore the
low-and-no category for variety and discovery. As 2021 points to an ease in 3.46%
lockdowns and more celebratory group gatherings, low-and-no options will be on 3.27%
shopping lists and menus. 3
Since 2019, the UK online retail market grew 40% in volume, taking up 3.27% of the
total Beer, Wine & Spirits sector. Mainstream low-and-no beers (Heineken, Beckʼs, 2.48%
In the US, low-and-no now has 3.46% of the total category, up a whopping 208% in
volume from 2019, thanks to hard seltzer's dominance; overall ready-to-drinks take
up 51%, climbing steeply from 35% in 2019. Botanical spirits are much smaller in the
US, revealing potential opportunities. Canned versions of mocktails, de-alcoholised 0
wines and low-ABV sparkling drinks are poised to grow in this convenience-oriented 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
region where canned 'ranch waters' made from agave will step on hard seltzer's toes
to become the drink of summer 2021.
WGSN Trend Curve, online retail data
11
Global low-and-no alcohol products
The low-and-no alcohol movement is a global one, with new brands of spirits, RTD mocktails, beers and
wines hitting the market monthly. The global market is targeted for 34% volume growth 2019-2024.
Siegfried Wonderleaf, Svami Zero Proof Drinks, Frog Beer Incroyable, Asahi Beery, Japan Giesen Wine, New Zealand
Germany India France
In summer 2021, Japanese Asahi New Zealand winery Giesen
In 2020, Diageo bought a In late 2020, Mumbai-based cra In early 2021, French brewery Breweries is launching Beery Wines created what it's calling
minority stake in Rheinland tonic maker Svami launched Frog Beer launched its non- nationwide, a carbonated low- the world's first zero-alcohol
Distillers, which launched three zero-proof RTD alcoholic cra beer (0.5% ABV) alcoholic drink (0.5% ABV) it Marlborough sauvignon blanc,
Germany's first non-alcoholic beverages: Gin & Tonic, Pink Gin Incroyable in four brews: hopes will help drive sales of launched in autumn 2020. There
spirit alternative, Siegfried & Tonic (infused with wild Blonde, IPA, Blanche and Stout. products at 3.5% ABV or lower are only 16 calories per 125ml
Wonderleaf. berries) and Rum & Cola. The line is available in FrogPubs to increase from 6% to 20% by glass. It was envisaged when
on tap or in bottle. 2025. winery staff started a fitness
challenge and realised they
couldn't drink their own wines.
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Across the Trend Curve stages
The four Trend Curve stages illustrate what the low-and-no alcohol trend looks like as it matures and
moves toward mass appeal. Creative, inspiring early-stage examples will inform late-stage business
strategies.
The WGSN Trend Curve reflects Huge flavour and style Cra beers are launched as Dry January is a big topic due Global beer and spirit leaders
data from our social media creativity in social media alternatives to Mainstreamer to retailers and brands promote major ranges of
Influencer Map and online retail mocktail recipes; o en riffs zero-proof beers and low- pitching tonics, juices and zero-alcohol beers and new
sources. Sources are mapped on traditional cocktails but alcohol hard seltzer drinks zero-proof products, gins, many years in
across four stages – Innovator, with twists Ready-to-drink mocktails including Central Market's development
Early Adopter, Early Majority and Indie low-and-no botanic expand packaged drink Organic Light Ginger Beer Hard seltzer brands move
Mainstreamer – according to spirit, beer and wine brands choices, including an own- (US) beyond the US and expand
when they adopt trends.
promote new products label G&T from Marks & Large beverage companies styles
Opportunities emerge in early
showing variety and the Spencer (UK) roll out canned products to Sodas and juices vie for
stages that will inform business strength of the movement compete with hard seltzer in
growth in later stages. inclusion in mocktails with
the US socially promoted recipes
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Innovator
Innovators have been leading the low-and-
no alcohol conversation in social with
recipes, product promos and Dry January
buzz. While now joined by other stages,
avour inspiration can be found here.
@binarybotanical @the_cocktailguy
@drink.mary
UK's Binary Botanic is a table beer designed to The Cocktail Guy, AKA Rich Woods of London
Mary is one of numerous UK low-alcohol replace wine and was created by female bar Scout, shared a Coffee Colada mocktail
botanical spirits gaining attention. At 6% ABV brewers seeking new low-and-zero alcohol recipe for Dry January with cold-brew coffee,
it's positioned to be an alternative to gin and options. It stars alongside pancakes in this pineapple cordial, cream of coconut and zero-
other hard alcohols #PancakeDay social media post alcohol Botaniets gin
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“Basil, thyme, sage, juniper, coriander, angelica and pine are the plants we use to
make the deliciously fresh, deliciously low-alcohol botanical blend. (And only 9 Kcals
per pour!)”
15
Early Adopter
In this stage of the Trend Curve, craft beer is
a hot topic, with new offerings arriving
alongside canned ready-to-drinks, revealing
where future growth and opportunity is
headed.
@calenodrinks
@nirvanabeerco
One new UK RTD comes from Caleño Drinks, a @bonappetitmag
brand with a Latin feel started by a Colombian Nirvana Brewery calls itself the UK's only
woman; pictured here, Light & Zesty In January 2021, US food magazine Bon Appétit dedicated non-alcoholic brewery and
is promoted with Colombian cuisine from showed off new non-alcoholic craft beers in promoted its dark and rich stout as "a gift for
Maize Blaze in London IPA, lager and sour ale styles the gluten-free" in December 2020
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“Yes, non-alcoholic craft beer exists, and it’s delicious. Thanks to the broader interest
in booze-free drinks, there’s been massive progress in the eld of non-alcoholic craft
beer, which now could pass unnoticed in a line-up of fully alcoholic offerings. Fruit-
forward un ltered IPAs, crisp clean lagers and lip-smacking sour ales are being
produced by breweries with varying proprietary methods of removing alcohol from
their brews.”
17
Early Majority
Early Majority trends show ways mainstream
mixers, beverages and brands are getting in
on the low-and-no action with spritzer
recipes and established brand products.
@lagunitasbeer
@wegmans
US craft beer brewer Lagunitas is known for its @davinci_gourmet
potent IPAs. It promoted its non-alcoholic US retailer Wegmans suggests garnishing a
version during Dry January 2021 as an option DaVinci Gourmet, a avoured syrup brand mocktail spritzer made with Cranberry Peach
for breakfast, weekday afternoons and after owned by Kerry, offers mocktail recipe ideas Kombucha with its convenient ready-to-use
higher ABV sipping using its sweetener and fruit avoured syrups pomegranate arils
18
“As the sun sets on January, cheers to everyone who went dry (and to all the ones who
didn’t)! January might be disappearing into our hazy memories, but we’ll be keeping
this one around for pancake pairings, Tuesday afternoons, Maximus chasers, and
every other time we’re craving hoppilicious goodness without the ABV. #IPNA”
19
Mainstreamer
Mass brands traditionally dominate the
alcoholic drinks market and are nding their
way into low-and-no relevance with new
products and positionings. Keep variety and
indie spirit in mind at this stage.
20
“Did you know that we offer more than 80 no-or-low alcohol beers (NABLABs)
worldwide? Our expanding portfolio offers a range of styles and avours to meet
growing consumer demand, with Bud Zero among our newest additions. Plus, grabbing
a NABLAB doesn’t mean you have to compromise on great taste! 100% greatness, 0%
alcohol.”
21
1 234
Action points
Create something for everyone Find the right t and occasion Satisfy with good taste and Underscore health and wellness
avour
As more consumers decide to skip or In the last year, most low-and-no The rise of high-quality boutique Many consumers are seriously
limit alcohol, they are looking for alcohol was enjoyed at home but as products alongside well-made prioritising their health following the
replacements of their preferred consumers emerge from the pandemic, mainstream offerings shows that great- coronavirus pandemic, and that includes
libations. Look to the attributes and they will seek them on menus, when tasting solutions can exist. As this everything from calorie counting to
qualities of regular drinks – full- travelling and at all times of the year. category expands regionally and into increasing exercise and seeking better
flavoured IPA beers, effervescent Hospitality businesses of all types on-premise locations, focus on building sleep. Just cutting the alcohol out of
spritzers, fine global wines – and should explore the styles that fit with drinks with the sensory qualities that new offerings wonʼt cut it: ensure clean
translate them into low-and-no versions cuisine types, regional locations and don't compromise and that offer a wide label ingredients also support
seasonal menus, while retailers can range of flavour options wellness credentials and include clear
plan assortments that match holidays messaging on calorie and ABV counts to
and other annual moments support shoppers
22
Methodology and de nitions
The WGSN Trend Curve uses machine learning and data analytics to track,
analyse and interpret food and drink trends as they emerge from innovative
disruptors and developers, and expand across four stages of maturity towards
the mainstream marketplace.
We identify patterns and trends from millions of social media posts and online retail
shelf data. This proprietary combination of technology, data science and human
ingenuity gives you a valuable visualisation of how trends are growing across food &
drink industries.
We interpret these movements and align them with powerful consumer drivers to
forecast how, where and when trends can best be leveraged for new product
development and innovation strategy.
Our WGSN influencer map positions food and drink sources into four stages
classified as Innovator, Early Adop ter, Early Major ity or Mains treamer according
to when they adopt trends. Food & Drink data is mapped and analysed on our
Influencer Map.
Trend: a specific ingredient, formulation, aroma, application method, benefit,
product, or broader societal movement impacting the sector.
Trend Cur ve: the WGSN Trend Curve is grounded in the Diffusion of Innovation
Theory (DOI Rogers, 1962) and the innovation S-curve.
Trend Cur ve s tage: a specific point in the Trend Curve that denotes the level of
trend adoption. Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurants
WGSN Influencer Map: created by a team of WGSN Food & Drink strategists that US restaurant and winery chain Cooper Hawk Winery introduced its own Meyer Lemon Wine
identifies global influencers from a range of sources, including chefs, cocktail Seltzer, a premium low-cal offering made from wine, not malt liquor like most hard seltzers
bloggers, restaurants, retailers and restaurant chains.
23
WGSN data sources
Retail data: Edge by Ascential S ocial media data: Yimian by Ascential
WGSN uses retail data from the world's leading e-commerce provider, covering online We leverage the power of Yimianʼs AI technology and real-time social listening and
inventory, price and promo, search and product detail information. analysis tool to identify trends, keywords and sentiments on social media.
Grocery categories include Beer, Lager, Ale and Cider, Wine and Spirits from 30 Data and analysis are based on posts containing low-and-no alcohol mentions,
online retailers in the UK and US keywords and hashtags from accounts within our WGSN influencer map
Retailers include Amazon, Costco, Tesco, Ocado and Walmart, among others Low-and-no alcohol keywords tracked include low alcohol, alcohol-free, dry
january, no-low-drinks, sober curious, among others
No-and-low alcohol products were tracked in ingredients, product names or
descriptions found on retailers' websites Data was collected from January 1 2018 to March 8 2021
Data was collected from January to March 2019, 2020 and 2021 Penetration: the percentage of our WGSN influencer map that has interacted with a
trend in a period of time (# unique users who posted at least once/total active users)
ppts: percentage points difference
x 100
Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Buzz: # of likes + # of comments + count
Freshness index (%): measure of the % of newness within a trend
NLP techniques such as key phrase extraction are used to produce the word clouds
Markdown percentage (%): markdown products as a % of total product offering
NLP techniques such as key phrase extraction and topic modelling are used to
Out-of-stock (%): products marked out of stock as a percentage of total products produce our word clouds
ppts: percentage points
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