Valuation Summary

Company Name: PNJ

Valuation Date: 12/28/2020
Last fiscal year date: 12/31/2019
Basic Shares Outstanding 225,188,176

Market Value
Current share price: 77,800
Basic Equity Value (VND mn) 17,519,640
Less: Cash & Equivalents (232,283)
Plus: Debt 2,260,505
Plus: Minorities Interest
Enterprise Value 19,547,862

Team's Valuation

Discounted Cash Flow Method 100% Weight

WACC 15.41%
Terminal growth rate 2%
Enterprise Value 18,015,438
Equity Value 15,987,215
Share Price by DCF (VND) 70,994.92

Target Share Price (VND) 70,995

Select case for scenario analysis 1

Country: Vietnam
Unit: 1,000,000
Currency: VND
VIETNAM INDUSTRY FORECAST

References

A. Sell gold, silver, jewelry

Sell gold, silver, jewelry

B. Selling accessories

Selling accessories
C. Service Provider

Service Provider
FORECAST

Population growth rate 1.0%

GDP growth in Vietnam 2019 7%
Retail industry growth 11.2%
Growth of the jewelry industry 10.0%
Gold price growth in 2019 compared to 2018 7.6%

2018A
Sales value (VND mn)
Sales volume (VND mn) 14,626,502

Growth rate 2018A

Sales value
Sales volume

2018A
Sales value (VND mn)
Sales volume (VND mn) 27,305

Growth rate 2018A

Sales value
Sales volume
 2018A
Sales value (VND mn)
Sales volume (VND mn) 24,993

Growth rate 2018A

Sales value
Sales volume
Source:
GENERAL STATISTICS
WORLD BANK
SSI
Ministry of Industry and Trade
Financial magazine

2019A 2020E 2021E

17,021,087 17,872,141 18,784,157

2019A 2020E 2021E

16.37% 5.00% 5.10%

2019A 2020E 2021E

74,095 88,913 114,698

2019A 2020E 2021E

171.36% 20.00% 29.00%

2019A 2020E 2021E

49,070 55,449 62,657

2019A 2020E 2021E

96.34% 13.00% 13.00%

 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

19,763,498 20,815,817 22,039,762 23,389,134

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

5.21% 5.32% 5.88% 6.12%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

157,137 215,277 294,930 404,054

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

37.00% 37.00% 37.00% 37.00%

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

71,430 81,430 92,830 105,826

2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00%

Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) Revenue
In millions of VND except per share

PNJ 2015A
Revenue 7,708,353
Sell gold, silver, jewelry
Selling accessories
Service Provider

Revenue
Sell gold, silver, jewelry
Selling accessories
Service Provider

A.Sell gold, silver, jewelry

Scenarios Probability
Worst 20%
Base 60%
Best 20%

2015A
Sales growth
Sales value
Market share
B. Selling accessories
Scenarios Probability
Worst 20%
Base 60%
Best 20%

2015A
Sales growth
Sales value
Market share
C. Service Provider

Scenarios Probability
Worst 20%
Base 60%
Best 20%

2015A
NJ) Revenue Forecast
Select case for scenario analysis

Historical Projected
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
8,564,590 10,976,837 14,571,136 17,000,681 17,525,741 18,094,760 18,716,870
16,877,517 17,383,842 17,923,263 18,499,254
74,095 87,432 111,038 149,901
49,070 54,468 60,459 67,714

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

99.3% 102.3% 105.4% 108.8%
0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9%
0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

Extra growth
20% -2%
60% 0%
20% 2%

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E

3.00% 3.10% 3.21%
16,877,517 17,383,842 17,923,263 18,499,254

Extra growth
20% -2%
60% 0%
20% 2%

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E

18.00% 27.00% 35.00%
74,095 87,432 111,038 149,901

Extra growth
20% -2%
60% 0%
20% 2%

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E

11.0% 11.0% 12.0%
49,070 54,468 60,459 67,714
t case for scenario analysis

Projected
2023E 2024E 2025E
19,392,480 20,214,020 21,138,379
19,114,273 19,855,884 20,674,432
202,367 273,195 368,814
75,840 84,941 95,134

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

112.4% 116.8% 121.6%
1.2% 1.6% 2.2%
0.4% 0.5% 0.6%

2023E 2024E 2025E

3.32% 3.88% 4.12%
19,114,273 19,855,884 20,674,432

2023E 2024E 2025E

35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
202,367 273,195 368,814
 2023E 2024E 2025E
12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
75,840 84,941 95,134
Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) Assumptions

Historical
PNJ 2015A 2016A
Income Statement Assumptions
Gross profit margin 15.18% 16.48%
Best case
Sell gold, silver, jewelry
Selling accessories
Service Provider

Base case
Sell gold, silver, jewelry
Selling accessories
Service Provider

Worst case
Sell gold, silver, jewelry
Selling accessories
Service Provider

Selling expenses/Revenue (5.50%) (6.46%)

Worst case
Base case
Best case
G&A expenses/Revenue (1.52%) (1.56%)
Worst case
Base case
Best case
Financial income
Interest from deposit/Cash 4.58%
Foreign exchange gains 1,082 838
Others Financial income/Purchase 0.00% 0.00%
Financial expenses 10,255 6,918
Foreign exchange losses 9,253 5,002
Other 1,002 1,916
Other incomes/revenue 0.02% 0.55%
Other expenses/revenue -0.05% -0.05%
Tax rate 22.82% 23.73%

Short-term Loan
Inventory Turnover 2.9
S-T loans 3,251,108
S-T loans/Purchase 42%
Payback (3,006,685)
 Payback ratio 92%
Ending of short-term borrowing 1,448,955
S-T interest expenses 73,196
Average tenor of S-T loans (month) 4.23
Estimated Interest rate 6.39%

Long-term interest rate

Long-term interest expenses

Total interest expenses

Balance Sheet Assumptions

Cash and cash equivalent/Revenue 0.49% 1.81%
Excess cash
Trade receivables/Revenue 0.38% 0.40%
Provision for doubtful debt/Trade receivables (0.1%) (0.1%)
Prepayment to suppliers/Total purchase 0.1% 0.2%

Other receivables/Revenue 0.11% 0.10%

Inventory/COGS 32.7% 39.7%

Provision for inventory/Inventory 0.00% 0.00%

Current prepaid expenses/SG&A 8.08% 6.56%
Deducted value added tax/Revenue 0.00% 0.00%
Taxes and other receivables from government budget/Revenue
Long term prepayment/SG&A 30.78% 0.00%
Deferred tax assets/Tax 0.00% 0.00%
Long-term receivables/Revenue 0.28% 0.31%
Trade payables/Total purchase 3% 4%

Other current liabilities/Revenue 1.57% 2.88%

Long-term interest-bearing debts 72,388 58,994
Other non-current liabilities/Revenue 0.09% 0.08%
Cash dividend payout ratio
worst
base
best
Assumptions
Select case for scenario analysis

Historical Projected
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A

17.42% 19.07% 20.36% 21.11% 22.00% 22.96% 24.03% 25.19%

38.6% 22.21% 23.22% 24.32% 25.53% 26.86%
20.82% 22.00% 22.30% 22.60% 22.90% 23.21%
29.75% 31.00% 31.40% 31.81% 32.22% 32.64%
78.78% 79.50% 80.49% 81.50% 82.52% 83.55%

21.64% 22.62% 23.69% 24.86% 26.13%

20.82% 21.44% 21.72% 22.00% 22.29% 22.58%
29.75% 30.30% 30.68% 31.06% 31.45% 31.84%
78.78% 79.00% 79.95% 80.91% 81.88% 82.86%

21.11% 22.00% 22.96% 24.03% 25.19%

20.82% 20.90% 21.11% 21.32% 21.53% 21.75%
29.75% 29.90% 30.23% 30.56% 30.90% 31.24%
78.78% 78.85% 79.68% 80.51% 81.36% 82.21%

(7.06%) (8.03%) (8.01%) (9.00%) (9.00%) (9.27%) (9.55%) (9.83%)

(9.00%) (9.00%) (9.27%) (9.55%) (9.83%)
(8.00%) (8.50%) (8.76%) (9.02%) (9.29%)
(7.00%) (7.20%) (7.42%) (7.64%) (7.87%)
(1.71%) (2.37%) (2.80%) (2.50%) (2.50%) (2.38%) (2.26%) (2.14%)
(2.50%) (2.50%) (2.38%) (2.26%) (2.14%)
(2.00%) (2.00%) (1.90%) (1.81%) (1.71%)
(1.00%) (1.00%) (0.95%) (0.90%) (0.86%)

1.77% 3.32% 0.11% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71% 1.71%

3,244 298 15,228 7,763 7,763 7,763 7,763 7,763
0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1,495 5,237 18,311 9,273 10,664 12,264 14,103 16,219
1,311 4,904 16,958 7,044 7,044 7,044 7,044 7,044
183 333 1,353 510 510 510 510 510
0.07% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
-0.01% -0.02% -0.03% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02%
20.12% 20.37% 20.76% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%

2.9 2.8 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.1

3,091,939 4,320,772 5,435,682 6,566,552 8,690,064 8,969,291 8,728,862 9,104,792
29% 31% 51% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
(3,707,380) (3,647,003) (4,387,362) (5,909,897) (7,821,057) (8,072,362) (7,855,976) (8,194,313)
 120% 84% 81% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
846,279 1,558,482 2,610,903 3,267,558 4,136,564 5,033,493 5,906,380 6,816,859
54,981 61,109 115,368 121,108 121,696 135,709 133,921 134,282
4.19 4.32 5.39 4.92
5.10% 3.93% 4.72% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

481 625 813 1,057 1,374

121,589 122,322 136,522 134,978 135,656

1.60% 1.42% 0.56% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

3,404,481 4,415,105 4,876,377 5,893,659 6,838,891
0.36% 0.40% 0.28% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.38% 0.38%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
0.10% 0.27% 0.03% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
37.5% 42.1% 51.9% 30.0% 32.0% 35.0% 33.0% 32.5%
30.0% 32.0% 35.0% 33.0% 32.5%
22.0% 25.0% 25.0% 23.5% 23.5%
15.0% 18.0% 18.5% 17.0% 17.0%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
7.18% 4.50% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90%
0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

0.00% 0.00% 28.21% 9.40% 9.40% 9.40% 9.40% 9.40%
0.39% 0.39% 0.42% 0.45% 0.46% 0.48% 0.49% 0.51%
3% 2% 6% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
3.31% 5.33% 4.21% 4.59% 4.59% 4.59% 4.59% 4.59%
46,235 7,800 3,700 4,810 6,253 8,129 10,568 13,738
0.07% 0.05% 0.02% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.07%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
 2025A 3Q2020

26.58%
28.43%
23.53%
33.07%
84.59%

27.65%
22.87%
32.24%
83.86%

26.58%
21.97%
31.58%
83.08%

(10.13%) (8.13%)
(10.13%)
(9.57%)
(8.10%)
(2.04%) (2.88%)
(2.04%)
(1.63%)
(0.81%) 0.00%

1.71% 0.09%
7,763 602
0.00% 0.00%
18,652 2,318
7,044 1,036
510 1,282
0.03% 0.05%
-0.02% (0.15%)
25.00% 21.09%

-149.9 0.48
3,290,376 4,468,561
60% 140.20%
(2,961,338) (4,822,659)
 90% 107.92%
7,145,896 2,256,805
(1,001) 40,680
() 25.49
5% 0.43%
0.43%
10%
1,786

784

2.00% 5.92%
15,887,844
0.38% 1.51%
0.0% 0.00%
0.017 2.08%
1.7%
1.60%
1.50%
0.10% 0.68%
33.0% 198.43%
33.0%
23.5%
17.0%
0.00% 0.00%
3.90% 15.60%
0.05% 0.21%

0.00% 0.00%
9.40% 0.00%
0.52% 1.94%
15.0% 4.53%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
4.59% 20%
17,859 3,700
0.07% 0.11%
20.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
 Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) Income s
In Millions of VND except per share

PNJ 2015A
Net revenues 7,708,353
Cost of good sold (6,537,985)
Gross profit 1,170,368
Selling expenses (423,930)
General & Administrative expenses (117,548)
Core operating profit 628,889
Financial incomes 1,328
Financial expenes (excluding interest) (349,754)
Share of profit (loss) of associates and joint ventures 518
Other incomes 1,627
Other expenses (4,236)
EBIT 278,372
Depreciation & Amortization 30,451
EBITDA 308,823
Interest (81,049)
Earnings before tax (LNTT) 197,323
Income tax expense (45,021)
Earnings after tax 152,303
Attributable to
Equity owner of the parent 152,303
Non-controlling interests
NCI Portion in Net Income -

Share outstanding 98,273,868

EPS 1,549.78

Purchase 7,241,450

Financial income 1,327,860,382

Net profit due to revaluation of foreign currency denominated assets
Interest from deposit 230
Foreign exchange gains 1,082
Other income 16

Common size analysis 2015A

Net revenues 100.00%
Cost of good sold (84.82%)
Gross profit 15.18%
Selling expenses (5.50%)
General & Administrative expenses (1.52%)
Core operating profit 8.16%
Financial incomes 0.02%
Financial expenes (excluding interest) (4.54%)
Share of profit (loss) of associates and joint ventures 0.01%
Other incomes 0.02%
Other expenses (0.05%)
EBIT 3.61%
Depreciation & Amortization 0.40%
EBITDA 4.01%
Interest (1.05%)
Earnings before tax 2.56%
Income tax expense (0.58%)
Earnings after tax 1.98%
Attributable to
Equity owner of the parent 1.98%
Non-controlling interests

Growth rate 2015A

Net revenues
Cost of good sold
Gross profit
Selling expenses
General & Administrative expenses
Core operating profit
Financial incomes
Financial expenes ( excluding interest )
Share of profit (loss) of associates and joint ventures
Other incomes
Other expenses
EBIT
Depreciation & Amortization
EBITDA
Interest
Earnings before tax
Income tax expense
Earnings after tax
Attributable to
Equity owner of the parent
Non-controlling interests
PNJ) Income statement Select case for scenario analysis

Historical

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E

8,564,590 10,976,837 14,571,136 17,000,681 17,525,741
(7,153,297) (9,064,873) (11,792,052) (13,539,968) (13,826,673)
1,411,293 1,911,964 2,779,084 3,460,713 3,699,069
(553,623) (774,978) (1,170,069) (1,361,808) (1,577,317)
(133,282) (187,936) (345,868) (475,832) (438,144)
724,388 949,049 1,263,146 1,623,074 1,683,608
5,266 8,795 6,846 16,820 9,312
(108,364) (1,495) (5,237) (18,311) (9,273)
(914)
47,317 7,395 4,638 4,761 5,243
(3,869) (1,384) (2,734) (4,265) (3,842)
663,824 962,360 1,266,659 1,622,080 1,685,048
34,398 39,340 42,102 139,900 141,579
698,223 1,001,700 1,308,761 1,761,980 1,826,627
(73,196) (54,981) (61,109) (115,368) (121,589)
590,628 907,379 1,205,550 1,506,712 1,563,459
(140,140) (182,523) (245,627) (312,787) (390,865)
450,488 724,856 959,923 1,193,925 1,172,594

450,488 724,856 959,923 1,193,925 1,172,594

-
- - - - -

98,273,868 108,101,325 167,002,982 225,188,176 259

4,584.01 6,705.34 5,747.94 5,301.90 4,527.98

7,716,567 10,631,060 13,854,327 10,657,549 10,944,254

5,265,793,888 8,794,872,100 6,846,027,091 16,820,020,734 9,312

169 1,243 1,267
4,426 2,932 6,331 164 167
838 3,244 298 15,228 7,763
2 2,618 48 186 114

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 103.09%
(83.52%) (82.58%) (80.93%) (79.64%) (81.33%)
16.48% 17.42% 19.07% 20.36% 21.76%
(6.46%) (7.06%) (8.03%) (8.01%) (9.28%)
(1.56%) (1.71%) (2.37%) (2.80%) (2.58%)
8.46% 8.65% 8.67% 9.55% 9.90%
 0.06% 0.08% 0.05% 0.10% 0.05%
(1.27%) (0.01%) (0.04%) (0.11%) (0.05%)
(0.01%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.55% 0.07% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%
(0.05%) (0.01%) (0.02%) (0.03%) (0.02%)
7.75% 8.77% 8.69% 9.54% 9.91%
0.40% 0.36% 0.29% 0.82% 0.83%
8.15% 9.13% 8.98% 10.36% 10.74%
(0.85%) (0.50%) (0.42%) (0.68%) (0.72%)
6.90% 8.27% 8.27% 8.86% 9.20%
(1.64%) (1.66%) (1.69%) (1.84%) (2.30%)
5.26% 6.60% 6.59% 7.02% 6.90%

5.26% 6.60% 6.59% 7.02% 6.90%

2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E

11.11% 28.17% 32.74% 16.67% 3.09%
9.41% 26.72% 30.09% 14.82% 2.12%
20.59% 35.48% 45.35% 24.53% 6.89%
30.59% 39.98% 50.98% 16.39% 15.83%
13.38% 41.01% 84.03% 37.58% (7.92%)
15.19% 31.01% 33.10% 28.49% 3.73%
296.56% 67.02% (22.16%) 145.69% (44.64%)
(69.02%) (98.62%) 250.38% 249.65% (49.36%)
(276.38%) (100.00%)
2808.69% (84.37%) (37.28%) 2.65% 10.13%
(8.65%) (64.22%) 97.53% 55.98% (9.90%)
138.47% 44.97% 31.62% 28.06% 3.88%
12.96% 14.37% 7.02% 232.29% 1.20%
126.09% 43.46% 30.65% 34.63% 3.67%
(9.69%) (24.89%) 11.15% 88.79% 5.39%
199.32% 53.63% 32.86% 24.98% 3.77%
211.28% 30.24% 34.57% 27.34% 24.96%
195.78% 60.90% 32.43% 24.38% (1.79%)

195.78% 60.90% 32.43% 24.38% (1.79%)

Select case for scenario analysis

Project

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 3Q2020

18,094,760 18,716,870 19,392,480 20,214,020 21,138,379 3,922,374
(14,114,728) (14,418,912) (14,732,875) (15,121,888) (15,520,259) (3,188,044)
3,980,032 4,297,958 4,659,605 5,092,132 5,618,120 734,330
(1,628,528) (1,735,054) (1,851,613) (1,987,956) (2,141,229) (318,786)
(452,369) (444,526) (437,543) (433,275) (430,434) (113,040)
1,899,134 2,118,378 2,370,449 2,670,901 3,046,457 302,504
9,349 9,354 9,349 9,356 9,255 747
(10,664) (12,264) (14,103) (16,219) (18,652) (2,318)

5,413 5,599 5,802 6,047 6,324 1,866

(3,967) (4,104) (4,252) (4,432) (4,634) (6,022)
1,899,265 2,116,964 2,367,245 2,665,653 3,038,750 296,776
143,278 144,997 146,737 148,498 150,280 52,964
2,042,543 2,261,961 2,513,982 2,814,151 3,189,030 349,739
(122,322) (136,522) (134,978) (135,656) (784) (40,680)
1,776,943 1,980,442 2,232,267 2,529,997 3,037,965 256,096
(444,236) (495,111) (558,067) (632,499) (759,491) (54,010)
1,332,707 1,485,332 1,674,200 1,897,498 2,278,474 202,086

1,332,707 1,485,332 1,674,200 1,897,498 2,278,474 202,086

- - - - -
- - - - -

298 342 394 453 521 242

4,475.00 4,336.95 4,250.80 4,189.35 4,374.33 834.49

14,483,440 14,948,819 14,548,104 15,174,653 5,483,960 3,187,297

9,349 9,354 9,349 9,356 9,255 747

1,267 1,267 1,267 1,267 1,267
167 167 167 167 167 145
7,763 7,763 7,763 7,763 7,763 602
151 156 152 158 57

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

106.44% 110.09% 114.07% 118.90% 124.34% 23.07%
(83.02%) (84.81%) (86.66%) (88.95%) (91.29%) (18.75%)
23.41% 25.28% 27.41% 29.95% 33.05% 4.32%
(9.58%) (10.21%) (10.89%) (11.69%) (12.59%) (1.88%)
(2.66%) (2.61%) (2.57%) (2.55%) (2.53%) (0.66%)
11.17% 12.46% 13.94% 15.71% 17.92% 1.78%
 0.05% 0.06% 0.05% 0.06% 0.05% 0.00%
(0.06%) (0.07%) (0.08%) (0.10%) (0.11%) (0.01%)
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.04% 0.04% 0.01%
(0.02%) (0.02%) (0.03%) (0.03%) (0.03%) (0.04%)
11.17% 12.45% 13.92% 15.68% 17.87% 1.75%
0.84% 0.85% 0.86% 0.87% 0.88% 0.31%
12.01% 13.31% 14.79% 16.55% 18.76% 2.06%
(0.72%) (0.80%) (0.79%) (0.80%) (0.00%) (0.24%)
10.45% 11.65% 13.13% 14.88% 17.87% 1.51%
(2.61%) (2.91%) (3.28%) (3.72%) (4.47%) (0.32%)
7.84% 8.74% 9.85% 11.16% 13.40% 1.19%

7.84% 8.74% 9.85% 11.16% 13.40% 1.19%

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E

3.25% 3.44% 3.61% 4.24% 4.57%
2.08% 2.16% 2.18% 2.64% 2.63%
7.60% 7.99% 8.41% 9.28% 10.33%
3.25% 6.54% 6.72% 7.36% 7.71%
3.25% (1.73%) (1.57%) (0.98%) (0.66%)
12.80% 11.54% 11.90% 12.67% 14.06%
0.40% 0.05% (0.04%) 0.07% (1.08%)
15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%

3.25% 3.44% 3.61% 4.24% 4.57%

3.25% 3.44% 3.61% 4.24% 4.57%
12.71% 11.46% 11.82% 12.61% 14.00%
1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
11.82% 10.74% 11.14% 11.94% 13.32%
0.60% 11.61% (1.13%) 0.50% (99.42%)
13.65% 11.45% 12.72% 13.34% 20.08%
13.65% 11.45% 12.72% 13.34% 20.08%
13.65% 11.45% 12.72% 13.34% 20.08%

13.65% 11.45% 12.72% 13.34% 20.08%

Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) Balance Sheet
In Millions of VND except per share

Historical

PNJ 31/12/2015 31/12/2016

Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents 37,885 155,348
Short-term financial investment 65 65
Short-term receivables 47,171 62,721
Trade receivables 29,214 34,105
Provision for doubtful debt (35) (35)
Prepayment to suppliers 9,293 18,769
Other receivables 8,139 8,814
Shortage of assets awaiting resolution 561 1,068
Inventory 2,135,225 2,838,690
Inventory 2,135,225 2,838,690
Provision for inventory
Other current assets 44,839 45,756
Current prepaid expenses 43,731 45,053
Deducted value added tax 9
Others 1,108 693
Total Current Assets 2,265,185 3,102,580

Non-current assets
Long-term receivables 21,217 26,443
Fixed assets 492,382 423,334
Tangible fixed assets 193,733 207,198
Historical cost 326,472 370,598
Accumulated Depreciation (132,739) (163,400)
Intangible fixed assets 292,370 208,604
Historical cost 295,745 213,344
Accumulated Depreciation (3,375) (4,741)
Construction work-in-progress 6,279 7,533
Goodwill
Long-term financial investment 166,666
Other long-term assets 29,839 35,630
Long term prepaid expenses 27,342 32,707
Deferred tax assets
Others 2,497 2,923
Total Non-Current Assets 710,105 485,407

TOTAL ASSETS 2,975,289 3,587,987

Current liabilities 1,501,708 2,021,661

Note payables 1,189,260 1,448,955
Trade payables 191,248 325,731
Others 121,199 246,975
Non-current liabilities 79,232 65,999
Long-term interest-bearing debts 72,388 58,994
Others 6,844 7,005
TOTAL LIABILITIES 1,580,940 2,087,660

Owners' equity 1,394,350 1,500,327

Common stock 982,746 982,746
Additional paid-in capital
Treasury stock (7) (7)
Retained earnings 191,963 373,500
Other 219,648 144,088
Non-controlling interest
TOTAL EQUITY 1,394,350 1,500,327
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 2,975,289 3,587,987
Balance Checked 0 0

Net Working Capital (NWC) 763,477 1,080,919

Net Operating Working Capital (NOWC) 2,000,440 2,594,449
Invested Capital 2,655,998 3,008,276

Value for Cash and Cash equivalents when breaking circularity

Common size analysis 31/12/2015 31/12/2016

Percentage of total assets
CURRENT ASSETS 76% 86%
Cash and cash equivalents 1% 4%
Short-term financial investment 0% 0%
Short-term receivables 2% 2%
Inventory 72% 79%
Other current assets 2% 1%
NON-CURRENT ASSETS 24% 14%
Fixed assets 17% 12%
Goodwill 0% 0%
Other long-term assets 1% 1%
TOTAL ASSETS 100% 100%

Percentage of total liabilities and equity

Current liabilities 50% 56%
Note payables 40% 40%
Trade payables 6% 9%
Others 4% 7%
Non-current liabilities 3% 2%
Long-term interest-bearing debts 2% 2%
Others 0% 0%
Interest-bearing debt 42% 42%
TOTAL LIABILITIES 53% 58%
Owners' equity 47% 42%
Common stock 33% 27%
Additional paid-in capital 0% 0%
Treasury stock (0%) (0%)
Retained earnings 6% 10%
Other 7% 4%
Non-controlling interest 0% 0%
TOTAL EQUITY 47% 42%
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 100% 100%
lance Sheet
Select case for scenario analysis

Historical Project

31/12/2017 31/12/2018 31/12/2019 31/12/2020 31/12/2021 31/12/2022

175,209 206,721 95,224 3,754,996 4,777,000 5,250,715

160,065 192,078 207,444 224,040
84,622 155,196 129,688 262,670 325,176 335,708
39,946 57,664 48,293 57,865 59,744 61,798

33,682 57,982 74,867 186,052 246,218 254,130

10,859 39,159 5,288 17,574 18,095 18,717
135 392 1,240 1,178 1,119 1,063
3,401,959 4,968,146 7,030,420 4,148,002 4,516,713 5,046,619
3,401,959 4,968,146 7,030,420 4,148,002 4,516,713 5,046,619

74,287 75,193 78,031

69,118 68,191 71,633 78,576 81,127 84,974
28 626 6,307 7,918 8,175 8,457
5,141 6,376 91 100 110 122
3,896,142 5,405,257 7,333,364 8,357,745 9,826,334 10,857,082

42,788 57,498 70,722 79,208 88,713 99,359

496,909 790,110 952,328 1,051,045 1,160,990 1,283,038
205,748 225,961 263,827 282,295 302,056 323,200
396,616 454,178 534,819 572,256 612,314 655,176
(190,867) (228,218) (270,991) (289,961) (310,258) (331,976)
281,495 493,327 660,043 739,248 827,958 927,313
286,741 499,937 679,620 761,174 852,515 954,817
(5,245) (6,611) (19,577) (21,926) (24,557) (27,504)
9,665 70,823 28,457 29,501 30,976 32,525

56,407 185,031 246,551 205,081 223,565 242,892

53,968 99,679 158,319 168,329 181,795 196,338
88,232 36,752 41,770 46,554
2,439 85,352
596,104 1,032,639 1,269,600 1,335,333 1,473,268 1,625,289

4,492,246 6,437,896 8,602,964 9,693,079 11,299,602 12,482,371

1,488,758 2,677,318 4,017,861 4,921,464 6,321,747 7,288,918

846,279 1,558,482 2,610,903 3,267,558 4,136,564 5,033,493
 278,898 342,677 690,808 1,641,638 2,172,516 2,242,323
363,581 776,158 716,150 12,268 12,666 13,102
53,939 15,504 7,838 17,078 18,919 21,231
46,235 7,800 3,700 4,810 6,253 8,129
7,704 7,704 4,138 12,268 12,666 13,102
1,542,697 2,692,822 4,025,699 4,938,542 6,340,666 7,310,149

2,949,549 3,745,073 4,577,266 4,754,537 4,958,936 5,172,222

1,081,020 1,670,030 2,252,936 2,343,053 2,436,775 2,534,246
876,761 925,398 968,074 987,436 1,026,933 1,068,010
(7) (7) (2,101) (2,227) (2,361) (2,502)
771,687 884,565 1,045,273 1,097,537 1,152,414 1,210,035
220,088 265,088 313,084 328,738 345,175 362,433

2,949,549 3,745,073 4,577,266 4,754,537 4,958,936 5,172,222

4,492,246 6,437,896 8,602,964 9,693,078.5120 11,299,602 12,482,371
0 0 0 0 0 0

2,407,384 2,727,939 3,315,504 3,436,281 3,504,587 3,568,164

3,241,365 4,838,647 6,544,168 2,955,086 2,915,592 3,394,135
3,842,062 5,311,356 7,191,868 8,026,904 9,101,753 10,213,845

Worst case
Base case
Best case

31/12/2017 31/12/2018 31/12/2019 31/12/2020 31/12/2021 31/12/2022

87% 84% 85% 86% 87% 87%

4% 3% 1% 44% 56% 61%
4% 0% 0% 2% 2% 3%
2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4%
76% 77% 82% 48% 53% 59%
2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
13% 16% 15% 16% 17% 19%
11% 12% 11% 12% 13% 15%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
100% 100% 100% 102% 104% 106%

33% 42% 47% 57% 73% 85%

19% 24% 30% 38% 48% 59%
6% 5% 8% 19% 25% 26%
8% 12% 8% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
20% 24% 30% 38% 48% 59%
34% 42% 47% 57% 74% 85%
66% 58% 53% 55% 58% 60%
24% 26% 26% 27% 28% 29%
20% 14% 11% 11% 12% 12%
(0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%) (0%)
17% 14% 12% 13% 13% 14%
5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
66% 58% 53% 55% 58% 60%
100% 100% 100% 113% 131% 145%
Select case for scenario analysis

Project

31/12/2023 31/12/2024 31/12/2025 3Q2020

6,281,508 7,243,172 16,310,611 232,283

241,963 266,159 306,083
341,412 355,956 195,603 152,349
73,691 76,813 80,326 59,037

247,318 257,969 93,227 66,233

19,392 20,214 21,138 26,585
1,010 960 912 493
4,861,849 4,914,614 (5,121,686) 6,325,883
4,861,849 4,914,614 (5,121,686) 6,325,883

75,708
89,246 94,395 100,260 67,350
8,762 9,133 9,551 8,357
134 147 162
11,726,732 12,779,901 11,690,612 6,786,222

111,282 124,636 139591944025.577 76,108

1,418,566 1,569,112 1,736,393 961,136
345,824 370,031 395,934 279,706
701,038 750,111 802,619 586,873
(355,215) (380,080) (406,685) (307,167)
1,038,591 1,163,222 1,302,808 650,885
1,069,395 1,197,722 1,341,449 681,029
(30,804) (34,501) (38,641) (30,144)
34,151 35,859 37,652 30,545

264,519 288,481 318,743 267,575

212,046 229,009 247,330 178,338
52,473 59,472 71,413
89,237
1,794,366 1,982,229 2,194,728 1,304,820

13,521,098 14,762,129 13,885,340 8,091,042

8,102,170 9,107,207 7,983,287 3,179,895

5,906,380 6,816,859 7,145,896 2,256,805 2,260,505
 2,182,216 2,276,198 822,594 144,408
13,575 14,150 14,797 778,682
24,142 27,888 32,656 7,888
10,568 13,738 17,859 3,700
13,575 14,150 14,797 4,188
8,126,312 9,135,094 8,015,943 3,187,783

5,394,786 5,627,035 5,869,397 4,903,259

2,635,616 2,741,041 2,850,683 2,252,936
1,110,731 1,155,160 1,201,366 968,074
(2,653) (2,812) (2,980) (3,384)
1,270,536 1,334,063 1,400,766 1,312,854
380,555 399,583 419,562 372,780

5,394,786 5,627,035 5,869,397 4,903,259

13,521,098 14,762,129 13,885,340 8,091,042
0 0 0 0

3,624,562 3,672,694 3,707,325 3,606,327

3,268,362 3,252,341 (5,655,449) 6,688,873
11,311,733 12,457,632 13,033,152 7,163,764

31/12/2023 31/12/2024 31/12/2025

87% 87% 84% 84%

73% 84% 190% 3%
3% 3% 4% 0%
4% 4% 2% 2%
57% 57% (60%) 78%
1% 1% 1% 1%
21% 23% 26% 16%
16% 18% 20% 12%
0% 0% 0% 0%
3% 3% 4% 3%
108% 110% 110% 100%

94% 106% 93% 39%

69% 79% 83% 28%
25% 26% 10% 2%
0% 0% 0% 10%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
 0% 0% 0% 0%
69% 79% 83% 28%
94% 106% 93% 39%
63% 65% 68% 61%
31% 32% 33% 28%
13% 13% 14% 12%
(0%) (0%) (0%) (0%)
15% 16% 16% 16%
4% 5% 5% 5%
0% 0% 0% 0%
63% 65% 68% 61%
157% 172% 161% 100%
Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) Cash Flow Stat
In Millions of VND except per share
Histo

PNJ 2015A
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Profit before tax 197,323
Adjustments for:
Depreciation & Amortization 30,451
Provisions (reversal of provisions) 292,519
Losses (gains) from investing activities and other non-operatings 38,464
Interest expense 81,049
Operating profit before changes in working capital 639,806
(Increase) decrease in receivables 31,792
(Increase) decrease in inventories (463,210)
Increase (decrease) in payables 65,513
(Increase) decrease in prepaid expenses (31,247)
Interest paid (80,553)
Corporate income tax paid (67,772)
Other cash inflows (outflows) from operating activities (20,625)
Net cash flows from (used in) operating activities 73,705
CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Purchase of fixed assets (70,365)
Proceeds from disposals of fixed assets 302
Proceeds (Payment) for acquisition of a part of ownership in subsidiary 26,152
Proceeds from disposals of a part of ownership in subsidiary
Interest received 230
Others
Net cash flows from (used in) investing activities (43,681)
CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Share issuance and re-issuance of treasury shares
Shares repurchased to treasury
Drawdown of borrowings 4,745,830
Repayments of borrowings (4,752,996)
Dividends paid (22,679)
Net cash flows from financing activities (29,846)
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 179
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year
Effect of exchange rate fluctuations
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 37,885
Cash and cash equivalents from balance sheet 37,885
Check balance 0
J) Cash Flow Statement
Select case for scenario analysis
Historical
Projected
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E

590,628 907,379 1,205,550 1,506,712 1,563,459 1,776,943 1,980,442

34,398 39,340 42,102 61,066 141,579 143,278 144,997

81,778 664 (3,415)
(17,270) (15,788) (7,576) (2,699) 5,239 6,717 8,449
73,196 54,981 61,109 115,368 121,589 122,322 136,522
762,731 986,576 1,301,185 1,677,032 1,831,865 2,049,260 2,270,410
(26,455) (41,627) (86,038) 12,889 (133,043) (62,566) (10,588)
(703,465) (563,270) (1,566,187) (2,062,274) 2,882,419 (368,711) (529,906)
170,232 16,952 412,203 199,226 657,765 870,449 898,805
(6,687) (45,326) (44,784) (62,082) (16,952) (16,017) (18,391)
(70,946) (55,961) (60,444) (114,017) (121,589) (122,322) (136,522)
(160,482) (153,620) (231,958) (291,572) (339,385) (449,254) (499,894)
7,686 (34,242) (26,118) (20,293) 694,131 (1,064) (1,163)
(27,387) 109,484 (302,140) (661,092) 5,455,211 1,899,776 1,972,751

(87,267) (115,444) (336,378) (223,766) (246,143) (270,757) (297,832)

164,944 8,426 1,076 1,775 92 1,952 2,148
(160,000) 160,065 176,072 193,679
64,306
3,951 2,932 6,331 164 167 167 167

145,935 (264,086) (168,906) (221,827) (245,883) (92,566) (101,839)

975,036 97,273 68,933 79,272 91,163

(2,094) (1,475) (1,844) (2,305)
3,251,108 3,091,939 4,320,772 5,435,682 6,566,552 8,690,064 8,969,291
(3,006,685) (3,707,380) (3,647,003) (4,387,362) (6,028,324) (5,922,939) (8,138,237)
(245,685) (185,194) (268,372) (343,875) (268,895) (336,119) (420,148)
(1,261) 174,400 502,670 771,283 267,858 2,508,435 499,764
117,288 19,798 31,624 (111,635) 5,477,186 4,315,645 2,370,676
37,885 155,348 175,209 206,721 95,224 3,754,996 4,777,000
176 62 (111) 139 (1,817,414) (3,293,641) (1,896,961)
155,348 175,209 206,721 95,224 3,754,996 4,777,000 5,250,715
155,348 175,209 206,721 95,224 3,754,996 4,777,000 5,250,715
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Projected
2023E 2024E 2025E 3Q2020

2,232,267 2,529,997 3,037,965 810,487

146,737 148,498 150,280 52,964

10,440 12,730 15,466 (974)

134,978 135,656 784 125,311
2,524,423 2,826,881 3,204,496 987,788
(5,757) (14,595) 160,305 (30,007)
184,771 (52,765) 10,036,299 704,538
875,325 913,649 333,159 (585,288)
(19,979) (22,113) (24,186) (15,736)
(134,978) (135,656) (784) (127,415)
(563,986) (639,498) (771,432) (155,454)
(1,263) (1,535) (1,726) (10,311)
2,858,555 2,874,369 12,936,131 768,114

(327,616) (360,377) (396,415) (61,762)

2,362 2,599 2,859 92
213,047 234,351 257,786

167 167 167 1,111

(112,039) (123,260) (135,603) (60,560)

104,838 120,563 138,648

(2,882) (3,602) (4,503) (1,283)
8,728,862 9,104,792 3,290,376 4,468,561
(7,995,967) (10,986,620) (10,794,556) (4,822,659)
(525,185) (656,482) (820,602) (215,116)
309,666 (2,421,349) (8,190,637) (570,496)
3,056,181 329,760 4,609,891 137,058
5,250,715 6,281,508 7,243,172 95,224
(2,025,388) 631,903 4,457,548
6,281,508 7,243,172 16,310,611 232,283
6,281,508 7,243,172 16,310,611 232,283
0 0 0 0
Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) DCF Valuati
In Millions of VND except per share

Valuation date 12/28/2020

Last fiscal year end date 12/31/2019
Stub year fraction 0.01
WACC 15.41%
Historical
2015A 2016A
EBIT 663,824
Tax rate (%) 22.82%
EBIT * (1-Tax rate) 512,369
Depreciation & Amortization 34,398
Capital Expenditure 87,267
Change in working capital 594,009
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) (134,509)
FCFF (adjust year 2020)
CAGR FCFF (2020-2026) -13%
Adjusted CAGR FCFF (2020-2026) 9%
Discount period
Discount factor
Mid-year adjustment factor
Present value of FCFF

Enterprise value
Cummulative Present Value of FCFF 10,991,586

Terminal Value
Terminal growth rate 2%
WACC 15.41%
Terminal Value (TV) 15,462,159
Mid-year adjusted discount factor 0.45
Present Value of TV 7,023,852
% TV of Enterprise Value 39%

Enterprise value 18,015,438

PNJ) DCF Valuation
Select case for scenario analysis

Historical Projected
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
962,360 1,266,659 1,622,080 1,685,048 1,899,265 2,116,964 2,367,245
23.73% 20.12% 20.37% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
734,019 1,011,866 1,291,587 1,263,786 1,424,449 1,587,723 1,775,434
39,340 42,102 61,066 141,579 143,278 144,997 146,737
115,444 336,378 223,766 246,143 270,757 297,832 327,616
646,916 1,597,282 1,705,521 (3,589,082) (39,494) 478,542 (125,772)
10,998 (879,693) (576,634) 4,748,304 1,336,464 956,345 1,720,327
26,018 1,336,464 956,345 1,720,327

0 1 2 3
1.00 0.87 0.75 0.65
1.00 1.07 1.07 1.07
26,008 1,243,063 770,734 1,201,309

Share price
Enterprise value 18,015,438
Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents 232,283
Less: Total Debt (2,260,505)
Less: Minority Interest -

Implied Equity Value 15,987,215

Basic Shares Outstanding 225,188,176

Price per Share 70,994.92

Forward P/E 2020E 15.7x

 2024E 2025E 2026E
2,665,653 3,038,750 3,038,750
25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
1,999,240 2,279,062 2,279,062
148,498 150,280 150,280
360,377 396,415 396,415
(16,022) (8,907,790) 0.00
1,803,382 10,940,717 2,032,927
1,803,382 10,940,717 2,032,927

4 5 6
0.56 0.49 0.42
1.07 1.07 1.07
1,091,152 5,735,841 923,479
Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) WACC Anal

As at December 28th 2020

Comparable Companies - Unlevered Beta Calculation
In millions of CNY except per share
Company Name Raw levered Beta

Chow Tai Fook Group 1.09

Citychamp Watch Jewellery 0.06
Chow Sang Sang Int 0.9
O Luxe Holdings 1.68
Time Watch Investments 0.44

PNJ - Levered Beta

In millions of VND except per share

PNJ Corporation

Cost of debt
Interest rate on debt 5%
Marginal tax rate 19.00%
Cost of debt after tax shield 4.05%

Cost of equity
Risk-Free Rate (rf) 2.60%
Market Risk Premium (rm-rf) 6.80%
Country Risk Premium 4.28%
Sovereign yield spread 2.43%
Std deviation in Equities (weekly over 2 years) 23.29%
Std deviation in Bond Price 13.22%
Adjusted beta 1.29
Cost of equity using adjusted relevered industry beta 16.88%
any (PNJ) WACC Analysis

Source:

Share price Shares Market cap. Debt D/E

9.86 231,200 2279632 16912 0.742%

1.63 34000 55420 169.03 0.305%
9.22 178000 1641160 1646.53 0.100%
0.74 13068 9670 312.31 3.230%
0.77 2000 1540 173.77 11.284%
Sum 3987422

Share price Shares Market cap. Debt D/E

77,800.00 225,188,176 17,519,640 2,260,505 13%

Capital structure
Current capital structure
Market value % Weight
Debt 2,260,505 11.4%
Equity 17,519,640 88.6%
Total 19,780,145

Weighted average cost of capital 15.41%

Investing

Unlevered
Tax rate Weights
Beta
22.50% 1.40 57.17%
23.60% 0.08 1.39%
24.85% 1.20 41.16%
23.45% 2.13 0.24%
23.33% 0.52 0.04%
Average 1.30

Relevered Adjusted
Tax rate
beta beta
19.0% 1.43 1.29