138th Climate Forum

21 JULY 2021

CLIMATE
OUTLOOK
AUGUST 2021 – JANUARY 2022
Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Presenter:
Rusy G. Abastillas
Senior Weather Specialist, CAD-CLIMPS
ENSO STATUS

Climate Outlook
(AUGUST 2021 – JANUARY 2022)

Summary
Oceanic Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
As of 19 July 2021:

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC
Negative subsurface temperature
anomalies persisted into March 2021.
From mid-March to early July 2021,
subsurface temperature were above
average. Since mid-May 2021, positive
temperature anomalies have
weakened and are currently slightly
During the last 4 weeks, SSTs have negative.
remained near average across most
of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
Source: NOAA CPC
 Seasons JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM
Average,
Source: ECMWF
Dynamical -0.25 -0.43 -0.55 -0.62 -0.57 -0.49 -0.32 0.06 0.16
models
Average,
Statistical -0.16 -0.15 -0.13 -0.11 -0.11 -0.09 -0.03 0.06 0.13
models
Average, All
-0.22 -0.34 -0.42 -0.46 -0.41 -0.32 -0.19 0.06 0.14
models

Source: IRI/CPC
Model + Expert Judgement Purely Model Output
• ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA WATCH
• ENSO-neutral conditions are present across the tropical Pacific and likely to
prevail during the July-August-September (JAS) 2021 season.
• La Niña is likely to re-emerge (55% chance) during the September-October-
November (SON) 2021 season and may persist until the first quarter of 2022.
La Niña increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions
across most areas of the country. Adverse impacts such as flooding and
landslides are expected over vulnerable areas and sectors of the country.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY
August 2021 – January 2022

THUNDERSTORMS RIDGE OF HIGH SOUTHWEST LOW PRESSURE

EASTERLIES AREAS (LPAs)
PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs) MONSOON

TROPICAL CYCLONES INTER-TROPICAL NORTHEAST TAIL-END OF THE

CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) MONSOON FRONTAL SYSTEM
*Transition to NE (Oct)
about our
Rainfall
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Maps.. Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
 AUGUST 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 15 61 7
 SEPTEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 81 2
 OCTOBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 40 43
 NOVEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 36 47
 DECEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 29 54
 JANUARY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 7 24 53
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (August 2021 - January 2022) as of Jul 21, 2021
PROVINCE AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY PROVINCE AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY PROVINCE AUGUSTSEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ABRA 78.7 119.2 103.5 110.0 109.0 68.7 MARINDUQUE 104.9 101.5 140.6 138.7 134.6 127.1 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 103.8 101.1 116.9 117.6 127.5 171.3
BENGUET 77.8 112.9 80.0 127.2 99.8 90.4 OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 85.3 109.7 139.9 149.8 137.5 116.8 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 106.0 101.2 113.8 117.8 122.1 168.9
IFUGAO 89.1 118.0 111.6 133.5 134.6 100.4 ORIENTAL MINDORO 90.4 107.9 139.7 142.8 138.2 122.0 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 105.4 101.6 113.4 118.8 123.6 170.7
KALINGA 89.2 122.5 108.5 129.3 140.7 108.3 ROMBLON 106.4 95.6 133.4 134.3 131.6 138.8 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
APAYAO 84.1 116.2 104.7 125.8 126.2 95.4 PALAWAN 91.3 110.7 122.2 136.7 160.4 148.3 BUKIDNON 114.4 104.3 112.2 119.4 122.9 122.2
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 86.8 120.7 109.3 132.5 131.0 97.6 SPRATLY ISLANDS 84.7 110.0 133.9 146.2 150.3 119.5 CAMIGUIN 119.7 108.5 118.9 109.1 115.5 137.9
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 112.5 102.4 113.4 114.1 120.0 148.0
ILOCOS NORTE 75.8 112.2 99.2 108.2 103.0 58.0 ALBAY 104.1 91.7 125.6 124.3 124.5 137.1 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 107.1 100.6 116.2 113.9 125.8 160.9
ILOCOS SUR 77.1 118.3 96.6 116.1 98.9 64.1 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 124.2 109.0 116.2 112.0 117.8 132.2
CAMARINES NORTE 120.9 109.4 139.1 134.1 137.9 125.1
LA UNION 74.1 111.2 80.7 151.5 95.4 79.0 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMARINES SUR 115.2 88.6 142.0 128.1 125.0 135.6
PANGASINAN 71.2 102.1 103.7 159.9 110.8 64.8 DAVAO DE ORO 116.6 104.7 111.1 128.3 116.5 118.7
REGION II CATANDUANES 125.0 105.5 120.2 137.0 129.1 141.2
DAVAO CITY 110.5 101.8 107.7 80.3 119.7 105.8
BATANES 89.6 99.4 114.8 130.2 110.0 108.5 MASBATE 108.7 110.0 140.3 118.7 140.2 134.0
DAVAO DEL NORTE 113.0 102.4 105.5 89.0 117.6 111.5
CAGAYAN 92.2 116.6 106.6 126.7 144.3 129.6 SORSOGON 107.8 107.7 140.4 123.9 133.7 131.6
DAVAO DEL SUR 111.5 103.0 118.9 112.0 117.0 108.2
ISABELA 101.5 116.3 119.3 131.9 160.2 124.2 REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 113.1 103.4 121.1 117.6 113.6 113.1
NUEVA VIZCAYA 90.6 111.5 114.3 124.6 125.0 99.7 AKLAN 112.3 96.0 116.7 118.7 134.6 136.2
DAVAO ORIENTAL 117.1 106.3 118.5 124.1 115.8 119.4
QUIRINO 106.0 109.0 131.1 137.1 144.2 111.4 ANTIQUE 99.7 98.9 122.5 131.5 140.3 138.0
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) CAPIZ 113.3 95.0 109.0 112.3 134.5 137.7
SOUTH COTABATO 111.4 101.3 120.2 121.5 112.4 118.7
BATAAN 68.8 105.1 139.6 122.1 121.7 92.2 GUIMARAS 84.9 96.9 124.7 136.2 142.6 147.1
COTABATO 107.9 99.4 113.3 107.6 115.5 119.9
BULACAN 77.3 104.6 132.8 145.6 140.7 104.7 ILOILO 99.1 96.1 118.6 124.1 138.2 140.1
SARANGANI 112.6 102.2 122.6 122.3 112.1 116.6
NUEVA ECIJA 88.7 104.8 118.8 130.6 124.1 81.8 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 100.1 100.5 120.3 120.3 141.8 157.6
SULTAN KUDARAT 109.9 100.1 114.1 115.5 112.2 128.0
PAMPANGA 73.2 103.6 134.2 159.5 115.1 80.2 REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
TARLAC 73.7 100.8 123.0 144.4 113.3 57.6 NEGROS ORIENTAL 104.7 103.7 111.7 122.1 139.8 149.9 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 128.8 109.1 120.0 99.6 105.0 128.0
ZAMBALES 72.5 101.9 127.0 151.0 116.7 49.1 BOHOL 114.8 101.1 121.9 111.6 121.5 148.5 AGUSAN DEL SUR 118.5 107.1 120.4 107.7 109.6 121.4
AURORA 111.3 105.2 135.9 103.1 139.8 115.5 CEBU 119.1 99.5 115.8 121.0 130.0 149.7 DINAGAT ISLANDS 120.8 110.3 124.9 103.8 105.9 131.3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 108.8 101.7 108.3 120.1 132.6 145.8 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 120.9 109.5 124.0 102.3 101.4 129.8
METRO MANILA 71.8 104.3 143.1 162.3 148.9 139.6 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 118.6 109.0 123.2 104.3 102.2 124.2
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 122.9 111.3 127.6 116.6 125.6 128.3 BARMM
BATANGAS 79.8 99.0 149.7 147.6 148.3 130.6 EASTERN SAMAR 116.4 106.4 122.5 119.6 122.4 129.7 BASILAN 105.3 106.8 115.2 123.2 121.1 173.8
CAVITE 68.4 100.0 157.1 121.5 146.7 137.6 LEYTE 119.3 103.8 126.6 99.1 121.8 133.4 MAGUINDANAO 107.8 97.6 109.9 108.2 110.4 133.8
LAGUNA 86.0 100.7 148.1 155.3 148.6 135.6 NORTHERN SAMAR 105.5 108.1 143.5 113.9 129.1 123.1 LANAO DEL SUR 111.5 101.5 112.6 111.9 117.5 138.3
RIZAL 78.9 103.6 142.2 211.5 151.1 131.6 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 117.4 110.2 126.5 117.4 123.1 125.7 SULU 105.2 104.8 112.6 116.4 131.3 164.3
QUEZON 107.2 102.6 139.0 129.6 138.7 124.2 SOUTHERN LEYTE 107.9 110.5 137.6 106.7 114.7 137.4 TAWI-TAWI 104.8 105.9 114.5 118.2 138.5 155.8
 PROVINCE AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 308.3 513.1 401.4 369.8 495.6 426.3 144.5 309.1 233.5 3.1 30.4 194.1 54.5 182.4 115.9 3.1 30.4 13.1
BENGUET 497.8 728.9 609.9 489.7 579.2 547.8 245.0 341.6 287.8 11.7 41.2 163.0 60.6 165.5 109.7 11.7 41.2 22.4
IFUGAO 231.3 552.1 381.6 310.8 534.2 420.1 290.0 322.9 299.8 25.0 62.1 263.2 159.0 346.9 245.1 25.0 62.1 42.6
KALINGA 220.6 438.9 304.5 297.4 445.8 354.3 273.7 311.5 305.5 17.2 58.0 301.0 157.0 302.8 226.7 17.2 58.0 34.2
APAYAO 229.6 341.0 287.5 303.9 396.6 349.9 218.1 316.1 286.8 25.6 93.3 301.5 124.8 263.4 196.8 25.6 93.3 54.8
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 245.7 545.2 394.2 311.3 528.9 418.4 283.8 309.4 301.6 14.0 55.5 276.3 135.2 316.1 211.8 14.0 55.5 29.9
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 325.4 430.0 371.3 368.9 436.0 413.9 106.4 279.0 176.6 3.3 79.7 116.4 37.8 181.6 93.3 3.3 79.7 27.8
ILOCOS SUR 375.8 667.2 519.8 433.4 580.3 499.2 121.5 291.4 217.6 2.6 18.7 154.0 34.9 147.0 85.7 2.6 18.7 9.9
LA UNION 514.2 693.7 630.7 502.8 580.3 559.0 242.5 271.7 251.6 6.7 16.5 151.3 52.2 84.2 65.5 6.7 16.5 10.4

L PANGASINAN
REGION II
339.4 580.5 463.0 376.6 512.1 453.2 202.3 334.7 264.1 0.0 46.4 128.8 42.6 143.6 62.9 0.0 46.4 7.9

BATANES 294.5 339.5 311.4 328.1 346.1 333.1 326.4 356.5 348.8 143.8 183.1 341.5 179.6 224.7 202.9 143.8 183.1 165.7
CAGAYAN 198.9 333.0 237.2 286.9 377.8 302.5 259.4 327.3 307.7 43.3 193.7 347.4 166.2 359.0 289.2 43.3 193.7 100.7
ISABELA 178.3 321.8 229.8 276.2 383.3 297.9 295.1 555.1 342.8 51.5 278.7 350.9 286.9 694.7 432.7 51.5 278.7 131.8
NUEVA VIZCAYA 236.8 556.3 382.9 330.7 536.0 431.8 296.5 475.9 362.5 29.6 206.8 270.3 108.1 400.1 258.4 29.6 206.8 84.4

U QUIRINO
REGION III
212.1 322.3 246.2 285.6 393.8 328.5 317.0 576.7 437.4 74.5 266.2 435.5 327.3 696.4 461.5 74.5 266.2 176.8

BATAAN 408.2 619.6 502.9 494.2 623.8 566.2 291.7 365.0 311.6 4.7 18.7 60.2 57.8 153.0 90.4 4.7 18.7 10.2
BULACAN 286.8 432.8 358.6 351.1 517.6 408.3 294.0 541.1 374.9 3.4 166.1 262.2 115.6 511.8 277.0 3.4 166.1 53.6
NUEVA ECIJA 261.9 424.6 328.0 328.5 453.4 361.3 214.9 500.7 312.9 2.8 180.8 178.5 65.3 422.7 189.8 2.8 180.8 63.6
PAMPANGA 327.9 495.8 377.6 366.8 536.1 443.1 258.8 325.7 285.9 2.5 31.2 137.0 49.8 204.9 105.1 2.5 31.2 12.3

Z
TARLAC 329.3 604.2 412.9 341.1 515.1 401.0 225.6 314.0 266.9 0.0 16.1 108.0 40.7 113.1 57.4 0.0 16.1 4.5
ZAMBALES 471.8 740.0 598.0 425.6 656.6 539.9 252.8 325.4 302.9 0.0 7.8 106.4 36.3 69.7 47.0 0.0 7.8 3.0
AURORA 203.5 338.8 246.2 290.6 359.6 314.3 409.2 689.9 542.7 150.5 347.7 495.0 313.6 833.8 557.7 150.5 347.7 248.6
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 290.6 427.1 365.9 357.6 461.6 414.0 307.5 396.8 350.5 20.7 74.0 230.6 169.4 298.9 224.4 20.7 74.0 45.6
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 180.1 387.0 241.2 232.6 460.6 280.3 301.0 527.9 386.0 26.1 163.0 339.7 176.6 543.6 335.3 26.1 163.0 75.2

O CAVITE
LAGUNA
259.1
194.8
386.0
346.4
311.8
238.5
300.2
253.2
461.3
392.9
377.5
301.1
305.5
308.1
356.6
623.5
322.8
451.4
22.2
42.8
55.7
277.4
125.8
496.3
159.5
233.1
267.3
692.0
207.5
457.7
22.2
42.8
55.7
277.4
32.0
141.5
RIZAL 235.6 389.3 309.5 302.1 414.3 365.9 362.7 561.8 447.6 59.0 252.8 684.7 264.6 613.0 428.0 59.0 252.8 139.2
QUEZON 154.1 328.6 204.3 243.6 366.8 286.6 335.2 681.5 564.7 101.9 567.8 612.8 413.9 874.8 690.5 101.9 567.8 269.6
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 177.1 207.2 190.9 257.6 281.9 269.7 461.6 536.8 483.8 170.7 228.3 457.2 478.5 625.2 548.4 170.7 228.3 199.3

N OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
223.9
175.8
216.5
430.2
384.3
296.4
315.4
264.6
249.8
272.6
242.3
217.6
475.8
439.4
304.6
380.6
327.2
251.6
338.7
355.7
357.7
443.1
480.4
457.0
394.8
415.3
404.6
24.7
51.6
132.0
101.9
140.6
186.9
291.3
337.2
352.5
155.6
198.4
292.0
341.7
434.4
439.8
250.8
320.6
370.8
24.7
51.6
132.0
101.9
140.6
186.9
58.0
97.2
161.4
PALAWAN 142.9 409.7 252.3 207.8 498.7 291.8 222.2 403.5 307.5 19.7 129.4 241.5 160.1 359.9 272.6 19.7 129.4 86.8
SPRATLY ISLANDS 359.5 368.4 361.0 385.4 398.4 387.6 315.8 323.2 317.0 194.5 188.6 200.9 191.0 59.4 63.5 61.2
REGION V
ALBAY 229.3 252.3 246.4 253.7 293.6 277.6 269.6 469.7 362.3 189.4 451.3 387.4 452.9 689.9 549.4 189.4 451.3 285.6
CAMARINES NORTE 166.6 229.1 200.7 292.2 306.7 301.5 543.2 678.7 602.1 275.3 374.7 634.5 657.5 869.1 824.2 275.3 374.7 344.7
CAMARINES SUR 192.3 252.0 236.6 281.8 305.2 297.6 329.0 621.5 478.2 174.4 358.3 430.7 407.0 804.8 575.1 174.4 358.3 253.9
CATANDUANES 223.4 239.0 230.0 269.2 290.3 279.4 423.9 477.7 436.7 364.8 428.0 554.7 636.6 683.3 668.2 364.8 428.0 397.1
MASBATE 180.7 235.8 199.2 229.3 273.3 250.3 322.0 454.6 362.4 172.4 352.2 313.3 382.9 565.4 495.2 172.4 352.2 267.5
SORSOGON 205.4 240.6 222.6 237.3 270.8 251.8 350.1 465.8 435.2 257.6 460.8 532.5 522.4 695.5 643.8 257.6 460.8 401.6
 PROVINCE AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY
REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
V AKLAN
ANTIQUE
261.7
282.3
311.1
384.1
283.3
313.2
238.4
264.0
316.9
420.9
262.8
286.4
298.0
276.1
388.5
396.9
335.6
308.7
125.1
63.9
231.9
169.9
326.3
250.0
278.5
207.3
387.5
330.3
335.9
262.4
125.1
63.9
231.9
169.9
179.4
121.0

I
CAPIZ 240.2 306.3 281.7 231.5 277.2 253.0 284.6 384.3 324.8 150.2 258.6 341.4 286.8 406.9 357.7 150.2 258.6 198.0
GUIMARAS 327.4 342.5 336.6 323.2 356.4 336.1 283.0 346.8 308.5 76.3 100.3 200.0 218.3 237.9 225.9 76.3 100.3 84.6
ILOILO 223.2 335.7 309.5 235.9 328.4 285.9 269.4 375.2 295.6 74.9 211.7 255.4 212.9 406.8 287.0 74.9 211.7 141.4

S NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
REGION VII
221.7 347.5 292.1 240.5 367.6 321.2 288.5 419.3 337.5 97.9 210.6 241.0 226.6 323.2 253.9 97.9 210.6 133.8

NEGROS ORIENTAL 115.1 320.4 200.9 146.1 352.8 231.7 153.2 392.0 269.2 122.6 195.0 227.8 220.5 258.4 236.2 122.6 195.0 146.4

A BOHOL
CEBU
128.4
127.1
206.8
260.4
166.6
214.2
133.8
150.2
252.0
274.8
176.3
228.9
210.7
175.6
336.3
370.3
258.8
270.2
181.3
145.7
373.8
388.7
214.8
229.6
218.6
220.9
344.0
479.8
264.9
279.4
181.3
145.7
373.8
388.7
267.4
206.0

Y SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII
121.8 132.5 126.5 128.9 135.0 131.8 194.6 242.3 219.6 180.5 206.2 218.1 230.6 246.6 238.6 180.5 206.2 194.2

BILIRAN 214.6 232.8 226.7 270.4 282.1 277.9 334.4 362.3 350.7 333.3 378.0 337.9 496.7 543.5 514.6 333.3 378.0 363.7

A EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
209.2
210.3
233.7
253.3
228.0
233.5
182.5
218.8
276.0
279.9
231.0
259.0
302.1
262.1
410.6
384.2
366.3
333.2
523.9
319.2
687.8
531.1
453.2
297.3
542.1
363.2
681.1
557.4
630.4
479.5
523.9
319.2
687.8
531.1
593.8
423.4
NORTHERN SAMAR 200.4 229.4 220.0 229.1 275.9 252.4 363.9 516.3 445.7 384.0 590.1 451.9 604.1 801.5 711.9 384.0 590.1 547.3
S SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
205.7
181.5
243.4
237.4
228.4
214.7
204.1
225.3
287.6
276.7
262.9
262.5
267.5
311.9
463.9
372.7
373.0
343.7
372.9
405.9
603.5
680.3
396.3
277.8
524.2
358.4
711.1
488.3
609.2
428.9
372.9
405.9
603.5
680.3
494.4
525.0
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 155.4 239.3 209.2 151.6 233.4 200.1 243.2 366.0 289.4 132.5 284.9 248.7 133.5 316.4 228.7 132.5 284.9 206.9
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 138.7 226.7 198.7 179.6 209.7 194.1 233.3 310.4 253.2 124.4 240.5 196.5 114.8 266.7 197.8 124.4 240.5 185.1
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 177.8 225.0 205.9 176.4 207.9 202.0 233.3 264.1 255.8 151.5 200.1 194.7 158.9 220.0 189.3 151.5 200.1 178.7
REGION X
BUKIDNON 243.6 346.6 304.8 222.3 282.2 265.4 219.1 310.9 275.4 141.1 333.9 225.1 185.4 266.8 220.8 141.1 333.9 206.3
CAMIGUIN 170.1 182.8 175.9 184.2 192.5 188.9 278.1 292.8 280.9 300.5 340.9 260.1 270.5 290.0 278.2 300.5 340.9 320.2

M LANAO DEL NORTE

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
210.8
177.7
274.4
220.8
233.5
205.7
194.2
169.3
259.4
206.6
218.2
194.3
219.8
247.7
258.2
332.9
238.2
290.8
153.6
157.8
199.2
427.7
189.7
260.8
183.2
221.6
227.6
285.7
204.3
252.6
153.6
200.3
199.2
254.3
177.2
226.1
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 169.2 271.0 226.3 172.5 255.7 220.0 209.7 276.2 247.1 157.8 427.7 199.3 184.3 298.3 236.1 157.8 427.7 259.4

I REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 193.2 260.4 215.0 179.6 230.0 194.6 184.6 285.9 240.2 224.7 649.7 236.5 206.6 358.2 273.9 224.7 649.7 407.6
DAVAO CITY 226.0 301.9 275.3 192.7 252.6 217.6 204.0 281.1 258.5 139.8 232.8 187.9 186.3 217.5 198.5 139.8 232.8 173.4
N DAVAO DEL NORTE
DAVAO DEL SUR
210.7
156.6
306.1
264.0
255.5
211.1
179.5
135.8
259.8
198.3
220.1
169.4
190.1
198.0
291.4
281.7
241.4
256.3
175.4
122.5
462.0
158.2
215.0
199.7
193.1
152.2
296.5
194.6
232.2
174.0
175.4
122.5
462.0
158.2
278.7
136.3

D DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
DAVAO ORIENTAL
131.4
190.5
197.4
218.2
152.2
197.2
121.2
175.7
161.0
201.1
134.9
184.0
180.2
225.3
261.5
291.3
224.7
263.5
122.3
247.8
204.2
714.3
200.1
251.8
147.9
219.9
201.9
375.7
173.0
278.5
122.3
247.8
204.2
714.3
165.8
426.2
REGION XII

A SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
103.4
207.9
199.1
307.8
148.0
271.1
108.3
173.1
172.1
264.8
133.7
227.5
121.9
242.3
245.7
287.2
202.1
261.8
113.7
119.3
126.4
193.5
173.1
218.6
117.6
154.0
162.6
211.0
144.2
178.7
113.7
119.3
126.4
193.5
116.6
136.1
SARANGANI 109.1 163.2 130.5 108.5 153.4 122.4 134.5 245.7 196.7 116.2 179.2 166.1 128.7 185.9 154.0 116.2 179.2 139.0
N SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII
159.8 229.3 190.4 146.0 198.3 172.1 213.1 262.4 245.3 115.4 126.6 215.5 149.6 170.6 159.7 115.4 126.6 120.2

A AGUSAN DEL NORTE

AGUSAN DEL SUR
147.5
152.1
227.5
302.0
169.1
227.5
154.1
154.8
210.4
260.1
169.4
206.6
203.5
222.9
280.5
338.2
238.6
274.8
346.8
296.4
699.9
889.5
226.4
271.6
268.5
253.2
402.8
463.8
321.2
329.2
346.8
296.4
699.9
889.5
507.5
540.8
DINAGAT ISLANDS 172.3 209.7 192.4 196.4 228.4 217.7 300.3 326.6 305.8 612.6 797.2 357.3 476.2 519.7 486.9 612.6 797.2 717.7

O SURIGAO DEL NORTE

SURIGAO DEL SUR
149.1
150.2
200.9
220.8
164.6
189.2
157.1
155.3
214.4
205.0
182.6
179.8
263.8
249.8
318.5
346.6
299.7
289.5
646.2
645.4
820.0
931.9
359.6
319.5
385.7
357.8
481.3
482.1
444.5
405.7
646.2
645.4
820.0
931.9
750.1
753.1
BARMM
BASILAN 148.5 177.5 161.0 184.0 196.9 187.6 239.6 255.2 246.4 122.3 130.4 169.9 124.3 172.7 135.2 122.3 130.4 124.8
MAGUINDANAO 195.8 279.7 235.8 166.8 248.1 208.3 236.1 296.4 266.6 116.7 144.9 204.4 149.5 184.1 159.9 116.7 144.9 125.2
LANAO DEL SUR 220.8 308.3 265.4 204.7 269.5 241.4 232.7 274.5 247.8 140.8 173.9 204.9 160.5 211.3 190.1 140.8 173.9 153.7

SULU 176.6 223.7 195.7 181.1 228.7 197.8 235.9 261.8 246.4 112.2 127.5 197.7 148.0 199.4 188.1 112.2 127.5 122.9
TAWI-TAWI 185.5 266.8 217.2 183.3 289.5 212.4 236.4 295.4 251.8 108.9 128.9 194.8 193.1 252.2 198.6 108.9 128.9 117.3
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR AUG 2021 - JAN 2022

Pantabangan San Roque

NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 289.0 349.4 228.1 233.1 273.3 159.0 259.0 482.7
MAX 377.4 389.6 252.1 316.4 558.3 177.7 397.1 705.1
AUGUST
MEAN 344.7 372.1 245.8 270.2 416.6 169.6 317.2 586.5
%NORMAL 83.0 70.3 107.3 115.2 87.7 114.7 92.9 78.4
MIN 350.8 412.4 274.2 218.1 345.4 167.9 340.4 478.4
MAX 404.3 419.7 302.5 279.5 537.4 196.2 439.6 565.7
SEPTEMBER
MEAN 380.8 416.0 290.3 250.8 452.1 181.8 382.8 537.7
%NORMAL 104.2 105.0 83.2 104.7 114.9 102.2 107.4 111.7
MIN 333.4 370.7 269.6 209.7 290.3 253.4 316.6 270.1
MAX 540.1 387.2 540.6 276.2 393.9 282.4 422.6 332.5
OCTOBER
MEAN 469.8 378.6 387.0 242.4 326.1 270.5 369.4 305.2
%NORMAL 136.0 136.2 135.8 113.3 109.5 122.2 124.0 80.8
MIN 234.8 117.7 196.0 128.2 179.1 214.2 183.0 80.6
MAX 714.5 235.9 491.6 232.6 315.3 252.1 315.8 222.1
NOVEMBER
MEAN 443.0 180.4 292.3 189.0 258.5 236.3 242.9 144.1
%NORMAL 126.4 146.2 123.9 115.0 127.3 113.1 131.8 111.2
MIN 313.7 250.6 407.0 183.4 151.9 262.4 162.5 74.1
MAX 498.3 301.8 595.2 215.5 351.8 289.0 324.8 170.2
DECEMBER
MEAN 416.4 272.9 479.6 197.1 232.6 276.0 237.8 119.0
%NORMAL 149.1 150.7 120.4 120.2 126.1 120.4 124.6 100.5
MIN 48.2 47.0 174.4 143.5 26.1 265.7 62.3 18.0
MAX 163.4 62.4 314.6 186.4 110.8 309.0 163.5 41.2
JANUARY MEAN 100.7 55.2 211.5 158.8 55.0 288.8 104.0 28.0
%NORMAL 100.1 132.6 137.9 134.7 98.2 147.0 95.6 92.9
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR AUG 2021 - JAN 2022

SITES AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY

MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 623.1 78.2 552.9 112.2 307.2 75.6 144.4 110.8 117.6 96.9 26.9 93.8
ANGATDAM 286.8 62.5 404.1 105.0 327.7 127.9 279.2 140.9 323.0 153.1 49.4 114.6
APUNAN 593.8 80.5 550.8 114.3 295.4 85.2 188.7 127.4 141.7 105.3 30.5 94.1
BADAYAN 565.3 80.7 543.6 117.1 287.5 91.6 234.5 143.8 147.3 109.3 25.2 90.8
BINGADAM 612.3 77.4 544.4 111.1 311.3 74.7 124.9 101.0 109.2 95.4 25.7 93.5
BOBOK 577.7 79.7 542.1 112.7 320.5 83.2 162.1 108.1 138.2 101.6 33.0 94.2
BUNGA 370.6 86.6 420.4 108.8 361.8 119.0 244.2 130.7 205.0 121.5 72.5 91.9
BUYOC 389.4 89.0 433.6 116.7 297.9 112.0 259.5 132.7 246.3 132.5 48.0 99.5
DANTOR 375.5 88.5 413.0 119.3 300.5 112.8 263.5 132.7 233.6 134.5 37.0 99.7
DUMAYUP 351.2 92.0 411.7 114.2 330.7 117.7 290.7 133.0 292.0 136.4 71.7 101.2
HALONG 445.4 85.4 468.0 118.6 296.5 106.8 259.3 134.5 202.1 124.7 33.4 95.4
IPODAM 343.3 66.4 419.0 104.9 329.6 131.8 33.0 124.8 250.8 146.6 31.2 117.8
MAGATDAM 276.1 94.5 346.3 117.0 298.1 122.5 272.4 135.3 316.9 151.2 54.8 104.8
MAPUTI 360.2 101.1 369.9 103.7 527.8 125.9 435.9 96.5 438.9 142.6 122.3 88.4
MARIKIT 282.1 99.7 357.9 105.5 405.1 126.7 265.9 122.3 310.7 123.5 154.5 102.4
MATULID 325.8 67.4 386.6 104.6 443.5 147.1 497.9 147.0 444.8 157.0 103.4 109.1
NORZAGARAY 344.5 67.5 417.9 104.9 327.8 131.6 66.2 136.1 245.2 144.6 27.5 113.4
PADALIS 300.6 94.5 377.5 108.0 384.5 127.4 266.5 134.6 265.3 126.3 114.0 97.8
PANTABANGAN DAM 305.9 91.1 369.1 106.4 325.4 122.7 188.9 137.3 195.8 126.1 86.0 89.8
SANROQUEDAM 484.5 74.8 479.1 106.6 295.6 91.0 99.8 112.6 89.2 105.6 22.2 83.7
STODOMINGO 422.4 88.0 466.5 113.3 340.7 107.9 261.1 120.4 239.5 123.8 66.8 99.5
TALAGUIO 376.3 82.2 384.8 104.0 445.2 140.2 407.5 150.1 332.5 145.6 60.5 102.8
UMIRAY 310.3 86.2 361.0 103.6 534.6 141.2 692.0 137.4 529.1 150.1 183.5 108.6
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR AUG - OCT 2021

AUGUST 2021 SEPTEMBER 2021 OCTOBER 2021

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 313.0 599.2 431.1 78.8 372.8 558.8 446.3 119.2 131.7 300.5 241.5 102.6
Abulug RB 213.6 345.6 283.7 83.8 294.6 392.0 346.8 115.2 222.1 316.1 284.9 104.6
Agno RB 347.7 705.1 465.8 74.0 348.2 566.2 447.2 104.0 214.7 352.3 278.7 106.3
Bicol RB 209.6 252.3 241.2 109.6 276.0 305.5 293.3 85.5 269.6 632.5 426.5 137.9
Bued RB 398.7 676.4 491.6 70.8 437.0 551.9 483.7 104.8 205.1 306.4 263.5 84.6
Cagayan RB 178.3 557.9 280.0 95.7 276.2 537.2 342.8 117.0 272.3 615.8 339.5 115.9
Laoag RB 322.2 430.0 362.0 75.9 377.6 433.5 412.9 114.7 106.4 246.1 178.9 102.2
Pampanga RB 254.2 575.6 348.8 83.0 323.7 586.9 389.9 104.2 214.9 540.1 318.3 125.4
Pasig-Laguna RB 201.1 427.1 293.1 78.2 257.1 496.1 352.5 102.2 297.7 590.2 397.6 145.3
Sinocalan RB 393.9 436.9 406.8 68.5 399.2 461.5 426.4 101.4 202.3 280.2 241.5 98.6
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 215.5 288.4 246.4 119.1 216.1 264.5 239.4 107.3 209.7 252.3 228.4 114.9
Agusan RB 150.1 303.7 223.3 119.3 155.0 261.1 203.5 106.8 203.5 316.5 264.6 118.9
Buayan-Malungon 103.4 182.9 146.4 112.8 112.6 152.0 130.2 102.9 121.9 240.3 190.3 124.7
Cagayan de Oro 242.4 326.3 288.2 117.4 240.1 281.8 266.6 106.6 215.6 284.9 250.9 112.3
Cotabato RB 128.1 346.6 256.2 109.5 117.6 282.2 220.0 100.3 177.7 310.9 260.3 113.0
Davao RB 252.0 307.9 286.1 110.2 193.5 260.9 234.6 101.2 235.3 280.8 257.1 108.2
Tagoloan River 245.6 333.0 291.3 120.2 231.7 279.8 258.8 107.7 240.6 308.4 280.2 111.5
Tagum-Libuganon 216.8 292.9 248.6 113.4 194.7 253.9 217.9 102.8 193.7 287.0 245.1 108.6
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR NOV 2021 – JAN 2022

NOVEMBER 2021 DECEMBER 2021 JANUARY 2022

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 34.5 293.1 202.7 115.4 41.7 175.4 118.0 108.5 2.7 28.7 13.6 71.0
Abulug RB 193.4 402.2 307.2 125.9 132.5 278.8 200.2 125.3 26.7 108.6 60.6 95.3
Agno RB 74.3 250.3 127.4 143.8 40.8 171.8 78.1 111.0 0.0 47.6 13.6 69.7
Bicol RB 196.0 683.1 350.1 125.8 407.0 810.0 520.6 122.5 174.4 332.2 224.6 136.5
Bued RB 76.1 113.4 87.9 139.0 43.4 85.3 65.3 102.8 3.6 20.6 12.3 78.9
Cagayan RB 177.2 860.3 335.4 131.5 150.6 740.2 330.5 146.2 16.3 294.1 92.0 114.7
Laoag RB 35.5 241.3 121.6 106.8 46.1 155.7 92.4 104.8 5.0 45.2 19.7 59.6
Pampanga RB 0.0 709.1 190.8 139.9 49.6 497.2 181.9 123.8 0.7 208.0 49.1 83.1
Pasig-Laguna RB 0.0 925.9 386.5 162.4 134.4 623.7 355.7 148.6 4.1 255.4 96.5 133.5
Sinocalan RB 98.4 125.1 111.8 176.4 42.6 82.7 53.9 111.0 1.1 18.1 5.8 67.8
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 128.2 210.0 159.1 113.7 184.3 215.6 199.8 120.8 150.5 204.0 169.2 136.3
Agusan RB 192.3 422.5 254.9 109.3 240.8 418.0 313.5 110.7 292.0 795.7 499.5 121.4
Buayan-Malungon 99.6 207.5 156.4 123.1 124.1 173.7 153.0 113.3 115.3 165.9 135.6 111.0
Cagayan de Oro 129.2 233.6 181.3 120.4 189.6 214.3 202.6 122.8 151.7 193.0 165.8 128.8
Cotabato RB 142.5 252.1 218.6 113.1 135.7 264.4 181.5 116.0 113.8 320.4 149.4 122.8
Davao RB 155.5 248.1 209.5 81.3 193.8 245.3 209.0 119.4 155.1 286.5 197.9 108.8
Tagoloan River 166.7 244.6 214.1 126.0 212.6 250.8 232.7 124.0 175.7 286.1 231.5 125.3
Tagum-Libuganon 168.1 276.7 232.7 96.7 193.5 324.5 256.0 116.4 205.7 537.7 345.9 114.3
 MONTHLY MEAN average

TEMPERATURE FORECAST slightly warmer

(AUGUST 2021 – JANUARY 2022) slightly warmer

slightly warmer
slightly cooler

warmer
warmer warmer
slightly warmer
warmer
cooler
cooler
warmer
warmer
cooler

slightly cooler average

warmer average

warmer slightly warmer warmer

warmer
slightly warmer
warmer

warmer warmer
warmer average

average

cooler
cooler

warmer
slightly warmer
average average

warmer
warmer warmer

cooler
warmer cooler
warmer warmer warmer

warmer

warmer warmer

average
average

warmer
warmer
warmer

average

average
 FORECAST RANGES OF TEMPERATURE (EXTREME)
Updated : 21 July 2021

Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 31.5 37.5 30.8 36.6 29.4 37.0 28.8 37.4 28.2 35.2 26.4 35.2
Lowlands Luzon 28.4 37.3 29.0 38.9 29.2 37.1 28.3 39.4 26.4 36.9 26.9 35.7
Mountainous Luzon 25.2 27.8 24.8 26.6 24.9 26.8 26.0 27.5 25.4 27.8 24.8 28.1
Metro Manila 32.0 35.2 32.5 35.5 32.4 36.3 33.1 39.5 32.3 34.7 32.0 35.8
Lowlands Visayas 32.2 36.1 32.4 37.0 32.0 39.1 32.0 37.6 30.0 35.3 30.2 36.0
Lowlands Mindanao 32.4 36.4 32.8 37.9 32.1 36.5 33.1 37.0 31.1 36.6 31.4 36.5
Mountainous Mindanao 31.5 33.7 32.0 34.0 32.0 33.6 32.0 33.6 32.2 33.7 31.6 33.5

Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 18.6 24.4 17.0 24.0 17.6 24.6 14.4 24.2 13.1 22.9 14.0 20.7
Lowlands Luzon 17.2 25.3 15.6 25.4 17.9 24.9 16.4 26.0 14.5 25.4 15.0 25.4
Mountainous Luzon 14.8 15.6 13.0 16.1 13.8 15.4 10.0 13.4 9.5 12.8 9.3 11.6
Metro Manila 21.7 24.3 22.2 25.2 21.6 24.7 21.2 26.0 17.7 24.7 18.0 24.5
Lowlands Visayas 20.1 25.3 19.4 25.0 20.0 25.3 19.9 24.9 17.7 24.3 19.0 25.0
Lowlands Mindanao 17.7 24.3 19.0 24.8 18.5 24.2 19.0 24.5 19.1 23.7 18.6 23.0
Mountainous Mindanao 15.2 18.0 15.5 18.0 17.1 18.9 14.4 17.3 13.6 17.0 14.0 16.6
 AUGUST NOVEMBER
2 OR 3 2 OR 3
2021 2021
SEPTEMBER DECEMBER
2 OR 3 1 OR 2
2021 2021
OCTOBER JANUARY
2 OR 3 0 OR 1
2021 2022
2 OR 3
SUMMARY
• ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA WATCH
• La Niña is likely to re-emerge (55% chance) during the Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) 2021
season and may persist until the first quarter of 2022.
▪ Forecast Rainfall:
• August 2021: generally near normal rainfall conditions except for the western part of
Luzon where below normal rainfall is likely;
• September 2021: generally near normal rainfall conditions;
• October 2021: generally near normal in most areas of northern Luzon and Mindanao,
while above normal will be likely in central and southern Luzon, parts of Visayas and
Mindanao (CARAGA region);
• November 2021 – generally above normal rainfall conditions over most parts of the
Luzon while in Visayas and Mindanao, mostly near normal is expected;
• December 2021 - generally above normal rainfall conditions over most parts of the
eastern Luzon and Visayas while the rest of Luzon and Mindanao will likely receive near
normal rainfall;
SUMMARY
▪ Forecast Rainfall:
• January 2022: generally near to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of
Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao except for some areas in western Luzon that may likely
receive below normal rainfall.

▪ Temperature forecast ranges from near average to above average is

expected over most areas during the forecast period;

▪ 9 -12 Tropical Cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR

during the forecast period (August 2021 – January 2022).
 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the
climate conditions that may affect the country and
updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of next CF:

25 August 2021

30
 Website:
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PAGASA new Number

Trunkline: (02) 8284- 0800
Typhoon Climate
927-1541 Local 905/906
Local 805
Flood IEC
Local 808 Local 102/103