Global Forecasts Discussion

Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global
Tropics, November 2021 Initial Conditions

Issued 12 November 2021
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global SST Outlook (skill masked)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
Dec 2021 - Feb 2022 Jan - Mar 2022

The NMME model
forecasts suggest
below normal SST
in the equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
Feb - Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022

Rainfall Guidance, Africa: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
Sand shade indicates indicate dry climatological
mask. White areas show where no one class is
dominant: either all terciles are under 36%, or
Dec 2021 – Feb 2022 Jan – Mar 2022 both A and B are over 36% (http://
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/NMME_PR
OB_descr.html
).
The forecasts call for a slight to
moderate tilt in the odds to favor
below-average rainfall over pockets of
Central Africa, and equatorial East
Africa through the northern
hemisphere spring 2021.
There is a slight to moderate tilt in the

odds to favor above-average rainfall
across much of Southern Africa.
Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022
Individual model forecasts can be found

here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i
nternational/nmme/nmme.shtml
Rainfall Guidance, Maritime Continent: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
OB_descr.html
).
The forecasts call for a slight

to moderate tilt in the odds to
favor above-average rainfall
over much of the Maritime
Continent and Australia.
There is a slight tilt in the odds

to favor below-average rainfall
over parts of Indonesia.
und here:
Rainfall Guidance, CAM and Caribbean: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
OB_descr.html
).
There is a slight tilt in the

odds to favor below-
average rainfall over
pockets of the Caribbean.
There is a slight tilt in the

odds to favor above
Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022 average rainfall over
portions of Central
America.

here:
Rainfall Guidance, South America: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
OB_descr.html
).
The forecasts call for a moderate

tilt in the odds to favor above-
average rainfall over the northern
portions of South America.
There is a moderate tilt in the

odds to favor below-average
rainfall over the southern areas of
Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022 South America.

here:
Rainfall Guidance, South Asia: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
OB_descr.html
).
There is a slight to moderate

tilt in the odds to favor
above-average rainfall over
Southeast Asia.
There is a moderate tilt in

the odds to favor below-
average rainfall over
portions of East Asia.

here:
Rainfall Guidance, Central Asia: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
OB_descr.html
).
There is a moderate tilt in

the odds to favor-below-
average rainfall over much
of Central Asia.

here:
Air Temperature Guidance: North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
(01 – 08 November 2021 IC)
Dec 2021 – Feb 2022 Jan – Mar 2022
The forecasts call for a moderate to high tilt in the odds to favor above normal temperature over
much of the globe, except for portions of Northwest USA, South America, Australia and southern
Africa. Individual model forecasts can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme.shtml
Summary
• La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-
22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May).
• Forecasts suggest that the negative IOD event will remain in the neutral
range through the northern hemisphere winter 2021/22.
• NMME forecasts favor above average rainfall over the Maritime Continent,
northern South America, and southern Africa through the northern
hemisphere winter of 2021/22.
• The forecasts call for an increased chance for below-average rainfall over
equatorial East Africa, Central Asia, and southern South America.
• Temperatures are predicted to be above normal across much of the globe,

except for portions of Africa and Australia.
Additional forecast resources can be found here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/index.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme.shtml
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

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Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global

Tropics, November 2021 Initial Conditions

Dec 2021 - Feb 2022 Jan - Mar 2022

Feb - Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022

There is a slight to moderate tilt in the

Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022

Individual model forecasts can be found

The forecasts call for a slight

There is a slight tilt in the odds

There is a slight tilt in the

There is a slight tilt in the

Individual model forecasts can be found

The forecasts call for a moderate

There is a moderate tilt in the

Individual model forecasts can be found

There is a slight to moderate

There is a moderate tilt in

Individual model forecasts can be found

There is a moderate tilt in

Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022

Individual model forecasts can be found

Feb – Apr 2022 Mar – May 2022

• Temperatures are predicted to be above normal across much of the globe,

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