Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Issued on 09 December 2022

LA NIÑA ADVISORY NO. 14 FOR MINDANAO

La Niña is still present over the Tropical Pacific and expected to persist until the January-
February-March (JFM) 2023 season, with transition to ENSO neutral conditions thereafter.
This increases the probability of above normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the
region that can result to possible adverse impacts over highly vulnerable communities. i

Climate Assessment for November 2022

The weather systems that affected Mindanao during the month include Low Pressure Area (LPA)
and its trough, trough of tropical cyclone (TC), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Easterlies,
and localized thunderstorms. No TCs entered inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
during the month, but the trough of Tropical Storm "QUEENIE” remained to affect some areas of
Mindanao during the early days. Hydrometeorological hazards brought by the aforementioned
weather systems include heavy rains, floods / flash floods, and landslides, which in turn resulted
to displaced families, injured individuals, power interruptions, class suspensions, and damaged
houses, roads, bridges, culverts and flood control infrastructures, most especially in Soccsksargen
and Davao Region (Figure 1) ii iii. Subsequent appropriate advisories and warnings were issued
by the weather and flood forecasters in Mindanao (Tables 1a and 1b).

Table 1a. Advisories and Warnings issued by Weather FWC in Mindanao for November 2022.

WEATHER FORECASTING AND ISSUANCES

WARNING CENTER Monthly Total Factors of Rainfall
Thunderstorm Advisories 74 Localized thunderstorms
ITCZ, LPA, Trough of LPA, Trough
Rainfall Advisories 142
of TC QUEENIE, Easterlies
ITCZ, LPA, Trough of LPA,
YELLOW Heavy Rainfall Warning 68
Wind Convergence
ORANGE Heavy Rainfall Warning 7 ITCZ, LPA
RED Heavy Rainfall Warning 0 ---
TOTAL 291

Table 1b. Flood Advisories issued by Flood FWCs in Mindanao for November 2022.
FLOOD FORECASTING AND ISSUANCES
WARNING CENTER Flood Advisories Factors of Rainfall
Davao 2 LPA
Buayan-Malungon 6 ITCZ, LPA
TOTAL 8

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

a b 0 c

d e f

g h i

Figure 1. Widespread flooding incident in (a) Alabel, Sarangani (b) Malungon, Sarangani and (c) General Santos City due to
heavy rains caused by ITCZ on 17Nov2022.a (d) Flooding in President Quirino, Sultan Kudarat due to heavy rains caused by the
trough of LPA (formerly QUEENIE) on 02Nov2022.b (e) Flooding and (f) landslide incidents in the Davao Region due to heavy
rains brought by the ITCZ on 16Nov2022.c (g) Damaged houses in M’lang, Cotabato due to strong winds and heavy rains on
05Nov2022 due to the ITCZ.d (h) Raging floodwaters due to overflowed river in Davao City brought by the heavy rains caused by
the ITCZ on 23Nov2022.e (i) Strong winds due to the ITCZ in Kiblawan, Davao del Sur on 25Nov2022 resulted to damaged
houses.f

Previous deterministic forecast for November 2022 suggested that generally above normal rainfall
was expected over the region, with patches of near normal rainfall over the region of Caraga, as
well as the provinces of Cotabato, Davao del Norte and Davao del Sur. Comparatively, the regions
of Caraga, Davao and Soccsksargen received near to above normal rainfall, while the regions of
Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula and BARMM received below to near normal rainfall
(Figure 2, Table 2 and Table 5).

a Alabel MDRRMO; Malungon MDRRMO; General Santos CDRRMO; Sarangani PDRRMO; OCD – Region XII
b Situational Report on Flooding Incident affecting President Quirino, Sultan Kudarat, issued on 03 November 2022 by the Sultan Kudarat
PDRRMO.
c PAGASA Davao Complex Station - Incident Report, issued on 18 November 2022; Origin of Report: OCD – Davao Region
d GMA Regional TV - One Mindanao, uploaded on 07 November 2022
e GMA Regional TV - One Mindanao, uploaded on 24 November 2022; Video Courtesy: John Michael Reyes
f GMA Regional TV - One Mindanao, uploaded on 28 November 2022; Photo Courtesy: Kiblawan MDRRMO

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Molugan, El Salvador City Tel. Nos. (088) 555 0485

Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Mobile: +63 916 376 8017
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Based on all surface observations in Mindanao (Table 2), the synoptic station in Hinatuan (Surigao
del Sur) recorded the highest total monthly rainfall amount of 645.9mm, as well as the highest
number of wet days. Conversely, the synoptic station in Zamboanga City recorded the lowest total
monthly rainfall of 92.2mm. The lowest number of wet days were recorded by both the
Laguindingan (Misamis Oriental) synoptic station and Pagadian City (Zamboanga del Sur)
Automated Weather Station (AWS). Moreover, the synoptic station in Surigao City (Surigao del
Norte) recorded the greatest daily rainfall amount of 116.7mm. It is also important to note that this
greatest daily rainfall was recorded on November 30, 2022, and the weather system that affected
Mindanao on the aforementioned date was the ITCZ. Further analysis showed that Mindanao
generally experienced near to above normal number of wet days for the month (Figure3).
Moreover, no record of exceedance was observed in terms of rainfall (Table 2).

Figure 2. Actual Rainfall Observed (mm and %Normal) in Mindanao for November 2022.
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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Figure 3. Actual Number of Wet Days (mm and %Normal) in Mindanao for November 2022.

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Molugan, El Salvador City Tel. Nos. (088) 555 0485

Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Mobile: +63 916 376 8017
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Table 2. Monthly Rainfall Assessment in Mindanao for November 2022.g

RAINFALL

CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREME EXTREME

STATION Total Monthly QUANTATIVE QUALITATIVE Greatest Date of Greatest No. of wet
NORMALS, mm Greatest Daily Date of Greatest
RR, mm CLASSIFICATION CLASSIFICATION Daily RR, mm Daily RR days
(CY 1991-2020) RR, mm Daily RR

Malaybalay 108.4 177.6 61.0 BELOW NORMAL 17.4 30-Nov-2022 144.8 20-Nov-1993 15
Butuan 165.4 197.8 83.6 NEAR NORMAL 21.6 30-Nov-2022 191.4 29-Nov-1988 18
Surigao 408.5 454.2 89.9 NEAR NORMAL 116.7 30-Nov-2022 564.7 18-Nov-1968 23
Cotabato 174.9 189.9 92.1 NEAR NORMAL 56.6 25-Nov-2022 142.2 12-Nov-1990 12
Dipolog 516.8 365.5 141.4 ABOVE NORMAL 115.1 18-Nov-2022 295.8 12-Nov-1973 21
Davao 102.5 139.7 73.4 BELOW NORMAL 33.0 30-Nov-2022 114.4 24-Nov-2002 12
Hinatuan 645.9 463.2 139.4 ABOVE NORMAL 73.2 2-Nov-2022 321.6 28-Nov-1986 27
General Santos 114.0 77.5 147.1 ABOVE NORMAL 27.6 16-Nov-2022 102.1 9-Nov-1962 14
Zamboanga 92.2 104.9 87.9 NEAR NORMAL 24.8 30-Nov-2022 163.3 27-Nov-1955 10
Laguindingan 158.2 127.1 124.5 ABOVE NORMAL 42.7 21-Nov-2022 237.1 24-Nov-2009 9
Tagum 177.0 166.1 106.6 NEAR NORMAL 37.5 8-Nov-2022 16
Bago Oshiro 159.8 154.9 103.2 NEAR NORMAL 54.2 21-Nov-2022 16
Marawi 231.6 216.2 107.1 NEAR NORMAL 48.7 21-Nov-2022 18
Camiguin 302.9 230.2 131.6 ABOVE NORMAL 67.0 21-Nov-2022 18
CMU Bukidnon 99.1 204.0 48.6 BELOW NORMAL 34.0 21-Nov-2022 13
Lantapan 103.5 187.3 55.3 BELOW NORMAL 27.0 11-Nov-2022 14
Esperanza 170.5 224.8 75.8 BELOW NORMAL 36.0 19-Nov-2022 13
Libungan 113.0 209.9 53.8 BELOW NORMAL 19.0 25-Nov-2022 14
Glan 159.0 129.8 122.5 ABOVE NORMAL 24.5 16-Nov-2022 16
Dumingag 126.5 268.6 47.1 BELOW NORMAL 31.5 12-Nov-2022 20
Sirawai 95.5 225.1 42.4 BELOW NORMAL 18.0 16-Nov-2022 14
Pagadian 159.5 233.2 68.4 BELOW NORMAL 51.0 17-Nov-2022 9
Loreto 457.5 266.2 171.9 ABOVE NORMAL 87.5 29-Nov-2022 21
Baganga 434.0 233.7 185.7 ABOVE NORMAL 62.0 2-Nov-2022 22
Kabacan 281.5 227.2 123.9 ABOVE NORMAL 54.0 21-Nov-2022 17
Sindangan 263.5 255.6 103.1 NEAR NORMAL 90.0 3-Nov-2022 15
Kabasalan 150.5 231.3 65.1 BELOW NORMAL 58.5 2-Nov-2022 11
Kiamba 432.5 180.8 239.2 ABOVE NORMAL 100.5 25-Nov-2022 22
Iligan 121.0 200.1 60.5 BELOW NORMAL 25.5 23-Nov-2022 14
Kapatagan 144.2 232.0 62.2 BELOW NORMAL 49.1 16-Nov-2022 12
Kolambugan 154.8 232.7 66.5 BELOW NORMAL 37.0 12-Nov-2022 13

g
Red box in Table 2 indicate derived normal values.
“tracking the sky…helping the country”

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Detailed analysis showed that Zamboanga synoptic station recorded the hottest daytime
temperature of 36.4°C during the month. It even surpassed its previous climatological extreme
value of 36.0°C last 21 November 2021. Meanwhile, Lantapan AWS in the highland of Bukidnon
recorded the coldest nightime temperature of 16.1°C for November 2022, followed by the Marawi
agrometeorological station in the highland of Lanao del Sur and the Malaybalay synoptic station
in the highland of Bukidnon that recorded 16.3°C and 16.5°C, respectively. Furthermore, no record
of exceedance was observed in terms of minimum temperature (Table 3).
Table 3. Monthly Temperature Assessment in Mindanao for November 2022.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

EXTREME EXTREME CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREME EXTREME CLIMATOLOGICAL

STATION Highest Date of Highest Lowest Date Lowest
Highest Tmax, Date of Highest NORMALS, deg C Lowest Date Lowest NORMALS, deg C
Tmax, deg C Tmax Tmin, deg C Tmin
deg C Tmax (CY 1991-2020) Tmin, deg C Tmin (CY 1991-2020)

Malaybalay 34.0 28-Nov-2022 34.8 29-Nov-1968 30.1 16.5 26-Nov-2022 13.1 29-Nov-1967 18.5
Butuan 33.8 12-Nov-2022 35.5 26-Nov-1982 31.7 22.2 11-Nov-2022 18.5 8-Nov-1989 23.8
Surigao 33.0 26-Nov-2022 36.5 22-Nov-2010 31.0 22.8 4-Nov-2022 19.4 10-Nov-2013 24.0
3-Nov-2017
Cotabato 35.4 14-Nov-2022 36.6 32.9 22.0 16-Nov-2022 20.7 12-Nov-2008 23.0
28-Nov-2018
Dipolog 35.4 6-Nov-2022 36.2 2-Nov-1975 31.3 22.8 25-Nov-2022 19.0 5-Nov-2002 23.1
Davao 34.3 14-Nov-2022 36.2 17-Nov-1908 32.2 23.1 11-Nov-2022 19.1 14-Nov-1911 24.4
Hinatuan 33.4 24-Nov-2022 36.0 24-Nov-1983 31.2 22.5 3-Nov-2022 19.0 25-Nov-1992 23.8
General Santos 33.2 14-Nov-2022 37.0 1-Nov-1994 32.8 21.5 25-Nov-2022 18.3 28-Nov-1951 23.0
Zamboanga 36.4 13-Nov-2022 36.0 21-Nov-2021 32.8 22.9 30-Nov-2022 18.5 11-Nov-1910 24.0
Laguindingan 31.3 25-Nov-2022 34.7 30-Nov-2006 31.1 23.0 21-Nov-2022 18.0 25-Nov-1992 22.2
Tagum 33.8 6-Nov-2022 21.5 26-Nov-2022
Bago Oshiro 34.0 28-Nov-2022 21.8 26-Nov-2022
Marawi 29.1 20-Nov-2022 16.3 20-Nov-2022
Camiguin 22.8 21-Nov-2022
CMU Bukidnon 33.0 8-Nov-2022 16.9 26-Nov-2022
Lantapan 31.1 28-Nov-2022 16.1 26-Nov-2022
Esperanza 33.1 12-Nov-2022 20.9 25-Nov-2022
Libungan 33.8 14-Nov-2022 19.9 26-Nov-2022
Glan 32.4 29-Nov-2022 21.3 26-Nov-2022
Dumingag 33.6 15-Nov-2022 20.2 6-Nov-2022
Sirawai 32.3 13-Nov-2022 21.5 27-Nov-2022
Pagadian 33.6 15-Nov-2022 20.5 19-Nov-2022
Loreto 33.2 6-Nov-2022 20.6 26-Nov-2022
Baganga 32.1 15-Nov-2022 21.5 3-Nov-2022
Kabacan 34.0 5-Nov-2022 21.1 26-Nov-2022
Sindangan 34.2 14-Nov-2022 21.4 26-Nov-2022
Kabasalan 32.5 2-Nov-2022 20.0 6-Nov-2022
Kiamba 32.6 26-Nov-2022
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Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Mobile: +63 916 376 8017
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Seasonal Climate Outlook for December 2022 to May 2023

Weather systems that will likely affect Mindanao during the period include Tropical Cyclones, Low
Pressure Areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Easterlies, Tail-End of the Frontal
System (TEFS) or Shear Line, localized thunderstorms, Northeast Monsoon and Southwest
Monsoon (in transition on May 2023).

PAGASA monthly deterministic forecasts from computer models suggest that the region will likely
to receive near to above normal rainfall during the forecast period. Most provinces are expected
to have near normal rainfall conditions during the months of December 2022, April 2023 and May
2023, while majority of the region will likely experience above normal rainfall conditions for the
period of January to March 2023.iv In comparison to selected international climate forecasts v vi,
majority of the computer models suggest likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions from
January to February 2023, while near normal rainfall conditions are likely from March to May 2023.
For December 2022, there is equal chance of near normal and above normal rainfall from
occurring. Moreover, international climate forecasts show that above normal rainfall conditions are
probable during Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 2023 and Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) 2023 seasons, while near
normal rainfall is likely in most areas for the remaining forecast period.

On the other hand, official rainfall probabilistic forecasts show that there is higher probability of
above normal rainfall conditions for almost the entire forecast duration, with approximately 34-69%
chance (Table 4), and with likelihood of more than 50% over majority of the stations from January
to March 2023.vii However, it is noteworthy that for April 2023, near normal rainfall conditions are
more likely. Comparatively, most of the international climate models viii and multi-model ensembles
(MMEs) ix x xi show 40-70% chance of above normal rainfall conditions in Mindanao during the
forecast period, except for April 2023 that near normal and above normal rainfall have equal
chance of occurring, and for May 2023 that near normal rainfall is more likely. These models also
show that 40% to greater than 70% probability of above normal rainfall is expected during the DJF
2023, JFM 2023 and FMA 2023 seasons, while near normal and above normal rainfall conditions
have equal chance of happening during MAM 2023 season.
Table 4. Probabilistic Forecast per Station in Mindanao for Dec 2022 – May 2023.xii
%PROBABILITY FORECAST
STATION DECEMBER 2022 JANUARY 2023 FEBRUARY 2023 MARCH 2023 APRIL 2023 MAY 2023
BN NN AN BN NN AN BN NN AN BN NN AN BN NN AN BN NN AN
Malaybalay 16 32 52 15 30 55 12 33 55 14 33 53 25 39 36 26 33 42
Butuan 22 32 46 11 29 60 11 33 55 14 36 50 27 37 37 27 33 40
Surigao 25 33 42 9 29 63 8 33 59 10 36 54 27 38 36 26 34 41
Cotabato 18 34 48 11 31 59 10 32 58 13 34 53 27 37 36 28 33 39
Dipolog 10 33 57 7 27 66 4 29 66 7 35 58 24 41 35 26 34 40
Davao 15 32 53 11 32 57 11 29 59 14 34 52 27 38 35 27 33 40
Hinatuan 30 33 37 13 31 56 11 32 57 8 36 56 27 37 36 30 33 37
General Santos 17 34 49 17 32 52 5 30 65 9 35 56 24 40 35 28 34 39
Zamboanga 23 34 43 4 26 69 11 32 58 10 35 55 26 39 36 26 33 41
Laguindingan 18 33 50 14 31 56 8 34 58 13 34 53 21 46 34 26 33 41
Tagum 21 32 47 21 32 47 14 30 56 14 33 53 30 33 38 28 32 39
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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Table 5. Observed Rainfall in Percent of Normal (Jun 2022 – Nov 2022) and
Forecast Rainfall in Percent of Normal (Dec 2022 – May 2023).xiii
OBSERVED RAINFALL (%NORMAL) FORECAST RAINFALL (%NORMAL)
PROVINCE
JUN ‘22 JUL ‘22 AUG ‘22 SEP '22 OCT '22 NOV '22 DEC '22 JAN '23 FEB '23 MAR '23 APR '23 MAY '23
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 94.7 124.3 161.3 120.5 159.8 83.1 122.3 178.5 139.4 139.6 80.2 101.5
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 122.4 156.7 187.2 127.1 157.6 67.5 117.6 173.0 136.7 143.2 84.4 99.5
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 130.1 115.9 164.6 131.1 152.5 65.3 118.9 176.0 134.7 142.7 80.0 99.2
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 97.6 123.0 143.0 84.7 129.1 79.0 121.6 122.2 138.4 130.0 76.4 102.8
CAMIGUIN 95.7 182.9 170.4 93.5 156.9 130.4 111.3 140.2 146.9 127.1 79.2 105.7
LANAO DEL NORTE 129.0 191.8 190.2 119.9 151.1 74.3 116.5 150.8 148.7 136.3 77.2 101.6
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 119.2 192.0 217.1 143.0 111.7 79.3 120.5 166.9 150.0 137.0 82.9 103.3
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 113.7 156.7 117.6 94.2 136.2 106.2 115.1 133.1 149.4 128.3 69.5 106.4
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 49.6 137.6 113.5 33.1 100.1 128.5 115.0 119.5 136.6 118.3 100.1 101.8
DAVAO CITY 93.4 176.7 124.7 101.4 93.5 99.4 117.1 106.1 117.4 111.2 86.6 97.4
DAVAO DEL NORTE 72.4 140.0 114.4 56.6 95.4 100.3 116.1 111.7 127.0 117.4 82.0 101.4
DAVAO DEL SUR 93.4 176.7 124.7 101.4 93.5 99.4 113.6 108.7 126.4 119.5 96.3 93.1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 52.4 144.4 95.4 58.9 107.2 97.7 110.3 113.7 139.3 129.7 91.2 93.1
DAVAO ORIENTAL 43.8 137.5 133.6 45.3 107.6 140.9 113.5 120.4 137.6 118.8 96.9 100.1
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 92.8 133.3 119.7 104.5 155.1 127.2 108.9 119.5 140.3 136.3 90.7 92.1
NORTH COTABATO 83.2 115.5 101.5 89.5 141.7 96.0 113.1 120.7 129.2 129.1 88.7 94.8
SARANGANI 64.6 135.1 105.4 72.5 141.3 126.5 108.6 117.2 143.0 135.7 91.3 92.5
SULTAN KUDARAT 96.8 105.4 137.0 110.1 111.7 87.4 109.1 129.3 135.2 137.3 89.0 92.5
REGION XIII (CARAGA)
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 78.0 126.1 134.5 55.6 154.9 95.0 103.2 129.4 137.4 125.3 97.4 103.7
AGUSAN DEL SUR 71.3 121.9 136.5 50.6 143.0 133.5 108.4 121.7 131.7 124.4 91.8 103.4
DINAGAT ISLANDS 53.5 119.9 117.8 58.9 135.3 105.5 102.5 133.0 146.0 109.8 82.0 100.4
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 61.5 100.8 115.0 50.3 131.0 102.1 99.1 132.1 139.0 116.1 84.0 100.6
SURIGAO DEL SUR 66.6 129.3 151.1 48.8 131.0 130.0 100.5 124.9 131.1 120.2 92.2 102.2
BARMM
BASILAN 71.8 99.0 110.9 91.9 157.7 83.3 116.7 174.3 122.8 148.8 86.5 97.9
MAGUINDANAO 78.6 87.1 105.1 86.4 144.6 85.2 107.9 135.6 135.1 141.3 87.9 92.2
LANAO DEL SUR 99.2 145.8 159.4 90.1 156.5 93.8 114.9 140.0 144.3 136.8 81.8 99.4
SULU 91.3 107.0 137.1 111.7 155.6 94.2 125.3 170.2 130.6 135.2 81.8 99.7
TAWI-TAWI 97.2 103.2 138.7 106.2 165.9 95.2 132.6 163.8 131.1 122.3 78.3 101.0
Legend:

way below normal

below normal
near normal
above normal

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Molugan, El Salvador City Tel. Nos. (088) 555 0485

Website: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Mobile: +63 916 376 8017
 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA)
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD)

Moreover, dry days h forecast xiv for Mindanao is shown in Table 6. Temperature forecast on the
other hand, xv indicates that Mindanao will likely experience near to warmer than average surface
temperatures for the period of December 2022 to May 2023, except for General Santos City that
will likely experience slightly cooler than average surface temperatures on February 2023.

Table 6. Forecast Dry Days in Mindanao for December 2022 to May 2023 per province.
FORECAST
PROVINCE
DEC 2022 JAN 2023 FEB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 16 16 16 20 22 19
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 17 16 17 20 21 18
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 16 16 17 20 22 19
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 18 16 16 19 19 15
CAMIGUIN 19 17 18 21 21 21
LANAO DEL NORTE 19 18 18 20 20 17
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 17 16 20 20 17
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 20 18 18 21 21 18
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 17 15 14 17 18 17
DAVAO CITY 20 18 18 19 20 17
DAVAO DEL NORTE 18 16 16 18 19 16
DAVAO DEL SUR 21 19 19 21 22 20
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 20 20 23 23 23
DAVAO ORIENTAL 17 16 14 17 18 18
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 21 19 20 21 22 21
NORTH COTABATO 19 17 18 19 19 16
SARANGANI 22 20 20 23 23 23
SULTAN KUDARAT 20 18 19 19 20 19
REGION XIII (CARAGA)
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 14 12 12 17 19 19
AGUSAN DEL SUR 13 12 11 16 18 16
DINAGAT ISLANDS 8 8 8 14 16 19
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 8 8 8 13 16 19
SURIGAO DEL SUR 9 9 7 13 15 16
BARMM
BASILAN 23 20 20 22 23 21
MAGUINDANAO 19 17 18 18 19 17
LANAO DEL SUR 19 18 18 19 19 16
SULU 25 21 22 24 23 22
TAWI-TAWI 26 26 23 26 24 19

h
Dry day is defined as a period of 24 hours beginning at 8AM to 8AM of the next day during which less than 1 mm of rain is
recorded.
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