140th Climate Forum

22 September 2021

CLIMATE
OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Presenter:
Rusy G. Abastillas
Senior Weather Specialist, CAD-CLIMPS
ENSO STATUS

Climate Outlook
(OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022)

Summary
In the last four weeks,
equatorial SSTs were near-
to-below average across
most of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean, and were
above average in the
western Pacific Ocean.
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
As of 20 September 2021:

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies

persisted into March 2021. From mid-March
to early July 2021, subsurface temperature
was above average. Since mid-May 2021,
positive temperature anomalies have
weakened. Negative anomalies strengthened
in July and again in mid-September.

Source: NOAA CPC

 5

Model Predictions of ENSO from Sep 2021

Most of the models in the set of dynamical and

statistical model predictions issued during mid-
September 2021 show below-average SST conditions
likely to cool further in coming months. During the
Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb seasons, La Niña conditions
are favored over ENSO-neutral. For Jan-Mar, the odds
are more equal. This re-emergence of La Niña is
predicted to potentially persist long enough to
constitute a La Niña event.

SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ

Average, Dynamical models -0.63 -0.78 -0.84 -0.75 -0.57 -0.39 -0.24 0.01 0.12
Average, Statistical models -0.62 -0.63 -0.62 -0.55 -0.47 -0.33 -0.2 -0.11 -0.04
Average, All models -0.63 -0.74 -0.78 -0.7 -0.54 -0.37 -0.22 -0.04 0.04
 6

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line)

predicts a transition to La Niña in in the next
month and La Niña to continue through fall and
winter 2021-22.
Model + Expert Judgement Purely Model Output
 Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI
computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.
• ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina Alert
 A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is favored in the coming
months;
 There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021
which may persist until the first quarter of 2022.
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MAY AFFECT THE COUNTRY
October 2021 – March 2022

RIDGE OF HIGH
INTER-TROPICAL EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)
THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

LOW PRESSURE
AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES NORTHEAST TAIL-END OF THE
MONSOON FRONTAL SYSTEM
*Transition to NE (Oct)
Understanding
our Rainfall
Maps..
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

 OCTOBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 34 49
 NOVEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 32 51
 DECEMBER 2021
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 0 58 25
 JANUARY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 8 28 48
 FEBRUARY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
1 7 19 56
 MARCH 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

NOTE: 1991-2020 climate normal

used in the maps was the results of
the initial calculations. Data will be
recalculated once the official normal
is released.
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
3 7 27 46
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH PROVINCE OCTOBERNOVEMBERDECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
MARINDUQUE 144.3 132.6 124.6 122.9 131.1 109.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 117.4 127.5 117.5 155.4 114.6 170.4
ABRA 114.1 97.5 95.5 67.8 52.6 35.9
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 144.0 140.0 124.8 115.2 109.4 83.4 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 114.1 127.7 113.3 155.3 118.7 170.8
BENGUET 88.2 115.1 85.3 89.8 91.1 75.8
ORIENTAL MINDORO 142.5 137.1 127.1 120.0 115.0 87.7 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 113.7 128.3 114.0 157.5 119.1 168.0
IFUGAO 118.3 117.5 116.4 98.5 116.2 79.5
ROMBLON 138.3 133.2 121.5 135.4 126.0 116.5 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
KALINGA 114.3 112.5 118.5 104.2 98.1 71.7
PALAWAN 124.2 137.8 140.1 113.5 114.2 103.8 BUKIDNON 114.1 128.2 115.3 112.9 136.0 145.3
APAYAO 111.7 107.5 109.6 95.0 71.6 66.4
SPRATLY ISLANDS 143.7 132.5 133.0 98.2 110.1 89.5 CAMIGUIN 120.0 121.5 107.4 129.7 139.6 153.9
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 116.3 115.7 112.5 95.0 99.5 67.5
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 113.9 124.3 111.9 135.2 133.3 168.6
ILOCOS NORTE 118.0 80.3 92.6 61.3 32.1 30.7 ALBAY 142.0 130.0 111.9 132.8 131.7 117.6 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 116.8 124.7 116.0 144.3 120.6 174.2
ILOCOS SUR 102.4 95.8 87.7 63.5 50.9 31.3 CAMARINES NORTE 143.3 131.8 125.4 119.3 137.8 143.7 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 117.3 122.1 110.6 122.9 142.9 151.4
LA UNION 91.0 133.0 83.3 79.0 71.0 56.7 CAMARINES SUR 146.9 119.5 111.5 125.8 132.2 133.3 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
PANGASINAN 128.5 135.3 92.6 65.2 79.0 92.5 CATANDUANES 133.0 136.9 118.0 137.3 141.9 131.9 DAVAO DE ORO 111.5 135.3 109.7 114.6 132.2 141.3
REGION II MASBATE 147.9 123.9 125.1 132.0 152.5 125.9 DAVAO CITY 105.0 85.6 112.3 102.3 115.9 121.3
BATANES 120.8 122.7 105.0 108.9 121.3 87.1 SORSOGON 143.9 119.8 120.6 130.3 144.3 128.2 DAVAO DEL NORTE 105.6 97.5 110.7 106.8 124.3 130.1
CAGAYAN 109.1 111.5 122.8 125.6 106.2 93.3 DAVAO DEL SUR 116.1 118.9 109.9 104.3 123.4 135.8
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ISABELA 123.6 118.1 139.1 120.3 140.0 98.0 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 119.6 127.7 107.1 107.7 133.5 149.5
AKLAN 120.8 123.6 119.9 128.1 118.1 119.2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 121.2 114.1 106.7 98.9 116.3 102.3 DAVAO ORIENTAL 118.4 133.0 109.0 115.5 132.0 144.9
ANTIQUE 125.4 135.4 126.3 123.0 122.5 116.5
QUIRINO 134.4 128.8 129.2 110.2 135.8 106.1 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
CAPIZ 112.6 119.9 117.8 129.1 127.5 129.0
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTH COTABATO 119.0 131.7 105.5 112.8 134.9 159.3
GUIMARAS 125.4 136.9 125.7 126.2 145.5 138.8
BATAAN 161.9 98.0 101.4 91.3 90.8 97.7 COTABATO 112.5 118.8 108.4 114.4 126.4 151.7
ILOILO 120.1 128.8 122.6 124.5 136.8 131.1
BULACAN 130.4 111.7 125.7 104.2 101.2 109.5 SARANGANI 120.8 132.5 105.5 110.4 136.8 157.2
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 123.0 126.7 120.4 144.7 138.1 149.5
NUEVA ECIJA 125.6 117.5 100.3 81.2 93.2 110.1 SULTAN KUDARAT 114.0 126.1 105.3 122.4 130.4 164.4
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
PAMPANGA 140.4 94.2 100.0 78.9 76.8 116.5
NEGROS ORIENTAL 114.8 133.6 118.7 139.9 123.9 167.2 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 122.7 115.0 100.7 124.2 132.3 147.3
TARLAC 141.3 108.8 93.5 57.0 78.5 110.2
ZAMBALES 163.6 115.4 96.8 49.3 90.2 100.2 BOHOL 123.5 122.2 109.4 140.4 145.8 160.9 AGUSAN DEL SUR 121.7 118.6 104.8 116.8 128.8 144.1
AURORA 136.6 103.8 126.7 114.0 126.8 108.2 CEBU 117.8 133.7 113.6 141.8 146.6 157.2 DINAGAT ISLANDS 125.7 118.0 100.3 126.1 138.1 138.2
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 111.5 134.1 115.7 137.0 121.6 176.9 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 124.9 118.0 97.5 125.5 133.4 138.5
METRO MANILA 146.1 148.3 134.9 136.5 110.2 85.9 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 124.3 114.1 98.8 121.3 127.2 144.5
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 130.8 123.5 115.4 125.3 151.0 134.9 BARMM
BATANGAS 152.8 134.1 132.9 129.3 135.8 85.4 EASTERN SAMAR 126.2 126.4 115.2 121.8 129.6 134.5 BASILAN 114.8 131.8 112.2 165.2 120.7 161.3
CAVITE 159.6 140.7 130.1 135.9 127.8 73.9 LEYTE 127.3 103.9 109.4 130.4 151.1 140.2 MAGUINDANAO 109.1 123.7 103.8 128.0 130.7 174.5
LAGUNA 152.3 155.4 132.5 133.1 136.5 97.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 145.9 116.6 118.5 119.8 138.0 135.8 LANAO DEL SUR 112.7 123.2 110.0 128.1 135.6 167.0
RIZAL 143.7 214.5 136.9 129.9 124.4 95.4 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 128.9 122.8 115.1 120.7 138.7 133.8 SULU 112.7 125.3 118.7 149.3 125.4 151.2
QUEZON 141.4 129.2 127.4 120.6 134.8 114.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 137.5 117.0 104.6 133.2 140.0 146.9 TAWI-TAWI 114.9 127.7 125.7 138.1 124.5 138.6
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
C O R D IL L ER A A D MIN IS T R A T IV E R EG IO N MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
ABRA 153.6 322.4 250.5 34.6 279.9 179.7 47.3 155.3 99.5 2.7 24.8 12.8 2.1 21.1 11.9 2.7 24.8 12.9
BENGUET 259.3 390.1 317.7 67.9 234.2 151.1 51.7 146.2 95.5 29.6 58.4 22.3 15.8 40.7 25.9 29.6 58.4 43.4
IFUGAO 300.3 336.4 313.7 194.1 259.5 241.9 140.0 309.8 217.4 33.3 59.8 41.9 27.6 59.6 42.8 33.3 59.8 44.7
KALINGA 289.7 326.0 317.3 245.5 291.6 273.2 135.7 254.5 192.4 18.4 37.0 32.8 18.1 45.9 29.5 18.4 37.0 26.8
APAYAO 242.0 323.6 299.1 168.0 354.6 276.1 107.7 230.7 170.8 12.3 34.3 54.0 15.6 53.9 33.9 12.3 34.3 23.6
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 292.8 326.2 315.0 231.2 269.4 255.1 118.0 277.6 184.3 23.4 43.5 29.1 18.7 52.2 31.1 23.4 43.5 32.7
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 130.8 289.4 201.2 23.3 262.0 100.8 33.7 165.5 83.3 0.4 29.3 27.7 0.3 52.3 15.9 0.4 29.3 10.1
ILOCOS SUR 124.4 304.9 226.6 20.2 246.2 137.7 30.3 127.7 74.4 0.3 33.3 9.7 0.6 22.2 12.5 0.3 33.3 17.6
LA UNION 259.8 335.7 278.6 67.7 169.1 136.0 44.2 72.2 56.2 23.7 42.1 10.4 13.5 19.2 15.7 23.7 42.1 30.8
PANGASINAN 275.1 390.2 323.7 66.3 161.7 112.8 36.1 126.4 52.9 17.0 54.4 7.9 3.3 37.0 13.3 17.0 54.4 26.9
REGION II
BATANES 339.5 374.8 366.8 284.7 351.0 323.5 171.9 214.2 194.0 40.3 67.6 166.1 104.5 108.2 106.1 40.3 67.6 55.6
CAGAYAN 271.2 337.9 313.3 231.0 369.4 313.8 150.1 315.3 251.4 23.6 65.8 98.7 29.4 129.4 63.7 23.6 65.8 41.7
ISABELA 302.3 561.3 352.2 238.2 721.9 325.2 246.2 655.0 391.8 32.3 198.4 128.8 42.2 272.9 119.8 32.3 198.4 88.8
NUEVA VIZCAYA 310.2 483.2 383.4 103.7 382.4 256.5 92.7 377.7 235.6 49.5 161.1 83.5 30.7 160.7 73.1 49.5 161.1 80.2
QUIRINO 326.0 582.7 445.7 258.6 785.8 420.9 301.7 659.2 432.0 65.9 207.2 174.2 70.5 273.7 161.4 65.9 207.2 140.1
REGION III
BATAAN 327.1 384.8 360.8 0.0 108.6 49.9 47.8 136.1 78.6 13.4 21.0 10.0 3.9 17.8 8.1 13.4 21.0 15.3
BULACAN 294.6 505.8 364.8 0.0 767.2 221.0 103.8 457.5 242.1 17.2 125.3 53.5 0.0 164.5 41.7 17.2 125.3 46.1
NUEVA ECIJA 221.9 470.0 326.4 14.2 393.3 162.8 51.9 367.8 164.6 13.2 134.7 63.1 0.2 146.9 49.3 13.2 134.7 55.8
PAMPANGA 256.8 358.1 299.2 0.0 371.5 67.1 42.7 176.0 92.0 18.4 33.7 12.1 0.0 21.2 7.4 18.4 33.7 26.2
TARLAC 244.2 413.6 308.9 46.8 206.2 89.0 34.0 95.7 47.2 13.8 28.5 4.4 0.1 10.6 6.3 13.8 28.5 20.9
ZAMBALES 326.5 465.1 390.8 27.2 134.1 84.4 30.7 60.6 39.2 13.7 23.4 3.0 3.8 13.7 8.3 13.7 23.4 17.6
AURORA 420.7 695.1 543.5 0.0 926.4 502.7 289.3 796.3 524.6 113.7 270.5 245.0 116.2 365.0 224.0 113.7 270.5 188.3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 309.1 407.3 358.9 0.0 432.8 209.1 154.1 272.1 203.6 16.8 41.9 44.8 8.7 50.2 29.6 16.8 41.9 26.8
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 307.0 532.2 392.8 155.0 593.4 322.4 159.3 506.0 306.0 16.6 82.1 73.9 21.1 131.5 56.3 16.6 82.1 39.2
CAVITE 310.9 362.1 326.9 49.6 251.7 142.4 144.0 238.8 185.5 10.7 28.0 31.7 19.7 38.9 24.3 10.7 28.0 16.3
LAGUNA 314.3 636.2 463.0 148.5 882.6 480.8 208.4 651.8 419.6 20.1 158.2 139.0 28.7 228.7 109.3 20.1 158.2 76.9
RIZAL 373.0 569.8 452.2 185.1 1000.9 677.2 241.3 576.6 394.1 35.7 147.1 138.2 35.8 204.2 108.2 35.7 147.1 78.1
QUEZON 335.3 688.0 574.0 147.0 1026.2 610.4 377.1 817.7 642.7 51.0 306.0 262.8 75.5 424.4 225.9 51.0 306.0 162.9
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 477.6 547.8 496.2 427.7 522.3 445.4 446.4 582.4 510.8 96.4 136.3 192.5 131.4 187.2 159.7 96.4 136.3 114.7
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 345.0 451.7 405.8 141.3 378.6 280.4 141.3 319.4 231.6 11.0 55.4 57.6 12.9 73.2 42.3 11.0 55.4 34.1
ORIENTAL MINDORO 363.2 491.2 424.0 179.0 435.7 328.6 181.3 405.8 298.3 29.8 79.7 95.7 31.5 105.5 68.2 29.8 79.7 53.2
ROMBLON 372.5 474.4 419.0 272.4 424.2 351.1 262.8 408.8 341.5 78.8 105.2 157.3 82.7 130.1 110.0 78.8 105.2 97.4
PALAWAN 220.6 413.3 312.9 169.8 307.4 245.9 147.4 313.6 236.1 8.1 83.7 65.6 7.9 67.5 44.9 8.1 83.7 52.3
SPRATLY ISLANDS 339.2 349.9 341.0 180.9 194.9 183.3 167.3 176.1 169.0 48.4 27.9 29.5 28.2 28.2 28.7 28.3
REGION V
ALBAY 342.5 487.4 404.5 212.7 648.9 405.2 405.9 628.6 496.9 80.6 292.3 279.5 113.2 349.2 205.8 80.6 292.3 156.6
CAMARINES NORTE 565.1 699.3 620.2 532.4 714.5 628.3 595.1 790.3 754.7 191.8 291.5 330.5 207.3 313.0 288.5 191.8 291.5 246.1
CAMARINES SUR 374.8 640.3 494.1 206.2 671.6 410.0 360.6 735.6 520.1 79.4 246.1 239.5 82.7 277.4 171.8 79.4 246.1 152.6
CATANDUANES 469.9 504.2 483.6 515.3 594.9 553.9 581.2 625.8 612.4 213.5 249.5 387.1 235.3 267.0 248.5 213.5 249.5 229.4
MASBATE 341.3 472.9 381.4 249.2 454.8 325.0 340.7 506.5 442.9 93.6 228.0 264.2 117.4 264.8 190.0 93.6 228.0 153.7
SORSOGON 395.3 476.2 446.8 386.1 648.2 520.8 471.2 632.5 582.7 135.2 308.2 397.5 187.6 338.4 307.7 135.2 308.2 266.7
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Millimeter (October 2021 - March 2022) as of Sep 22, 2021
PROVINCE OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
REGION VI MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN MIN MAX MEAN
AKLAN 307.2 397.9 346.7 269.4 427.5 345.2 247.1 327.5 290.8 90.0 194.3 170.1 75.0 127.1 102.6 90.0 194.3 140.0
ANTIQUE 278.0 407.7 316.1 215.9 342.2 260.6 187.1 289.8 228.9 44.6 140.4 111.5 37.9 97.8 72.4 44.6 140.4 103.6
CAPIZ 290.3 405.7 335.1 246.7 443.0 367.1 246.1 338.3 305.2 75.5 227.0 187.4 85.3 138.6 114.3 75.5 227.0 154.9
GUIMARAS 282.5 353.1 311.2 189.0 223.5 200.9 192.8 206.9 196.1 72.0 90.2 73.9 57.1 73.2 65.1 72.0 90.2 81.3
ILOILO 268.5 391.5 299.8 189.3 413.0 268.6 188.9 361.5 248.1 69.1 176.2 130.7 54.5 151.7 89.5 69.1 176.2 115.4
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 293.6 432.0 345.2 221.5 267.5 253.3 190.7 283.0 215.4 93.1 132.0 124.5 77.1 157.2 99.0 93.1 132.0 110.5
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 162.3 403.4 275.8 229.9 269.2 248.0 188.2 225.9 201.9 109.5 145.3 137.0 83.2 109.9 94.5 109.5 145.3 123.1
BOHOL 215.3 337.4 261.9 176.3 293.1 235.4 194.6 311.2 239.8 124.4 206.9 254.7 123.4 244.5 181.0 124.4 206.9 165.8
CEBU 183.5 377.5 274.7 210.9 359.9 251.5 188.1 432.1 246.0 99.2 224.8 197.1 90.2 329.4 152.5 99.2 224.8 132.6
SIQUIJOR 201.4 246.8 225.1 224.9 257.4 243.2 202.3 220.4 211.6 139.6 150.8 180.8 102.5 124.7 114.6 139.6 150.8 146.2
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 340.2 369.1 358.6 348.2 376.2 355.3 454.3 497.5 473.7 225.7 252.8 356.5 273.4 315.0 298.6 225.7 252.8 243.1
EASTERN SAMAR 309.6 422.9 377.3 398.7 581.9 477.9 512.9 650.5 594.5 306.6 391.5 556.3 362.2 460.7 408.3 306.6 391.5 345.3
LEYTE 268.6 376.2 334.1 246.7 388.7 311.0 329.1 510.6 432.8 200.6 323.8 414.8 261.4 415.3 356.7 200.6 323.8 259.8
NORTHERN SAMAR 378.5 516.5 452.8 363.3 520.3 462.4 544.1 728.4 653.0 248.2 432.0 532.1 280.2 421.7 379.4 248.2 432.0 364.0
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 274.2 469.4 379.9 339.7 528.7 413.4 490.7 653.0 569.2 249.0 367.8 473.5 282.1 422.9 362.3 249.0 367.8 316.1
SOUTHERN LEYTE 313.0 368.2 343.1 261.9 460.1 305.5 325.5 447.9 394.5 213.4 377.9 508.5 256.1 501.0 374.9 213.4 377.9 279.8
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 242.0 364.8 290.5 167.2 422.3 269.8 123.8 292.4 210.8 115.2 178.6 184.4 73.2 141.6 113.4 115.2 178.6 150.3
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 230.9 311.0 253.8 145.9 309.2 213.6 106.6 246.0 183.3 109.6 168.0 166.8 63.5 131.6 109.3 109.6 168.0 150.7
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 233.9 265.7 256.9 202.4 223.0 210.4 146.5 203.2 174.1 124.5 156.5 161.9 84.8 117.3 101.8 124.5 156.5 141.8
REGION X
BUKIDNON 220.6 323.7 280.7 138.6 274.4 243.4 174.3 254.9 208.6 93.8 221.9 191.8 117.0 241.8 159.8 93.8 221.9 161.3
CAMIGUIN 281.1 296.2 282.8 285.2 302.5 290.1 253.7 272.4 261.4 185.2 202.9 304.7 216.5 245.0 230.4 185.2 202.9 193.7
LANAO DEL NORTE 220.2 259.1 238.9 146.5 259.3 208.2 171.2 211.2 190.6 99.7 171.7 159.6 115.1 128.5 122.6 99.7 171.7 148.2
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 248.8 333.3 291.9 224.6 377.7 285.5 206.0 263.3 233.7 84.4 229.8 200.4 124.9 136.6 131.3 151.6 167.8 160.2
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 210.2 279.0 249.2 136.4 281.4 219.6 172.8 285.7 223.5 84.4 229.8 245.0 113.5 302.1 184.1 84.4 229.8 149.4
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 185.2 286.7 241.6 176.3 338.4 254.5 193.2 350.6 263.0 153.3 431.0 396.7 164.1 481.7 298.5 153.3 431.0 271.9
DAVAO CITY 202.3 271.4 251.8 154.6 258.9 200.7 175.2 206.6 187.0 136.4 203.3 167.7 121.1 196.4 147.6 136.4 203.3 164.0
DAVAO DEL NORTE 191.5 296.5 241.9 155.8 282.8 235.1 182.6 286.7 221.2 143.8 317.4 269.2 137.8 347.8 222.7 143.8 317.4 218.9
DAVAO DEL SUR 195.6 272.0 250.2 173.0 243.4 215.0 144.2 182.6 164.1 119.8 147.1 132.0 99.3 123.4 113.2 119.8 147.1 135.0
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 177.7 261.1 222.9 155.3 266.5 220.5 140.2 193.9 164.7 113.4 178.3 159.2 96.4 172.2 128.2 113.4 178.3 138.4
DAVAO ORIENTAL 224.1 292.2 263.7 206.9 358.1 275.1 207.0 368.6 267.3 168.9 463.1 415.5 177.8 520.0 297.5 168.9 463.1 269.8
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 118.2 246.3 201.2 107.3 239.5 188.4 110.8 153.5 136.0 88.7 168.3 111.1 77.0 123.5 101.6 88.7 168.3 130.8
COTABATO 240.9 282.2 259.8 199.2 271.2 242.4 145.3 199.6 168.2 141.8 207.6 129.4 108.8 166.9 126.4 141.8 207.6 170.4
SARANGANI 131.1 246.3 195.1 110.2 250.2 181.6 121.3 178.2 146.3 95.5 161.5 132.5 83.8 151.8 111.7 95.5 161.5 128.5
SULTAN KUDARAT 211.7 258.2 245.2 199.4 248.4 236.1 140.6 161.1 150.6 128.2 189.8 114.9 101.0 128.6 118.2 128.2 189.8 165.3
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 210.5 282.7 243.3 226.5 393.2 262.1 257.3 391.3 310.9 198.3 368.0 494.3 246.8 495.7 354.3 198.3 368.0 266.7
AGUSAN DEL SUR 228.6 340.1 277.5 234.4 505.8 299.7 241.3 459.4 320.3 196.2 611.0 526.5 225.3 680.4 395.3 196.2 611.0 340.4
DINAGAT ISLANDS 303.2 329.7 307.6 349.8 496.4 410.7 454.9 491.4 465.6 330.5 434.7 689.3 458.0 587.8 526.3 330.5 434.7 386.4
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 267.2 317.6 301.6 310.1 527.5 420.0 375.1 468.7 431.4 347.5 465.5 724.8 466.2 626.0 538.0 347.5 465.5 400.3
SURIGAO DEL SUR 254.1 348.6 291.8 269.2 511.6 349.6 350.1 478.3 397.2 335.7 650.0 735.8 447.1 719.1 534.8 335.7 650.0 441.3
BARMM
BASILAN 237.9 255.8 246.0 155.5 215.3 182.0 114.7 153.9 123.9 110.0 123.2 118.4 69.8 83.8 76.3 110.0 123.2 118.5
MAGUINDANAO 236.0 290.1 264.2 211.4 240.1 233.9 140.6 172.9 150.6 142.6 217.6 119.3 108.1 127.4 121.4 142.6 217.6 188.8

LANAO DEL SUR 233.3 270.6 247.9 190.2 250.4 226.5 150.7 198.4 178.2 121.8 197.4 140.1 118.5 133.1 124.1 121.8 197.4 160.5

SULU 236.1 265.3 247.1 207.4 217.3 212.9 134.4 178.5 168.1 97.5 126.5 112.4 70.7 91.8 84.0 97.5 126.5 114.9
TAWI-TAWI 236.4 298.7 253.0 209.4 242.4 210.4 173.6 218.7 178.1 87.2 121.6 105.1 66.7 93.8 78.6 87.2 121.6 103.5
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022

Pantabangan San Roque

NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 332.4 378.7 342.5 210.2 302.2 256.2 342.9 298.5
MAX 504.5 395.7 544.3 283.8 415.6 285.7 434.5 385.5
OCTOBER
MEAN 437.6 386.7 415.4 244.1 344.4 273.8 391.7 346.3
%NORMAL 126.9 138.9 146.9 114.0 116.2 123.8 133.2 91.1
MIN 252.6 94.8 206.2 136.4 170.8 235.0 173.3 73.7
MAX 758.2 222.6 467.7 258.0 298.0 276.7 311.3 208.0
NOVEMBER
MEAN 443.9 164.5 285.1 205.6 241.4 259.4 235.2 134.5
%NORMAL 125.8 133.2 119.5 124.3 113.6 124.0 126.1 101.9
MIN 271.1 227.7 360.6 171.5 134.3 237.8 142.2 62.0
MAX 439.9 274.4 538.0 202.3 323.0 262.6 301.6 150.5
DECEMBER
MEAN 357.2 248.1 430.4 185.0 208.8 250.8 215.5 103.9
%NORMAL 131.1 137.6 106.7 112.4 108.2 108.8 102.0 84.9
MIN 48.3 46.5 157.6 132.2 25.6 252.6 61.7 17.8
MAX 163.2 62.1 310.6 172.1 109.4 295.8 161.8 40.9
JANUARY
MEAN 100.7 54.7 199.5 144.2 54.3 275.6 102.9 27.8
%NORMAL 100.4 130.7 128.2 123.8 97.0 139.2 94.8 92.3
MIN 22.8 25.8 82.7 113.5 29.4 179.1 48.7 21.5
MAX 164.4 38.8 246.7 135.2 98.8 205.1 123.1 40.7
FEBRUARY
MEAN 99.7 32.7 128.2 123.1 51.9 193.4 80.1 30.8
%NORMAL 122.4 106.7 128.0 140.8 114.1 144.8 105.9 100.7
MIN 41.0 31.8 79.4 84.4 34.2 161.4 61.7 41.6
MAX 128.8 41.1 183.0 179.0 96.2 181.3 127.1 57.6
MARCH MEAN 72.3 36.1 101.3 136.1 58.4 172.4 89.1 50.4
%NORMAL 100.6 100.8 123.0 159.3 89.3 159.8 114.9 91.1
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT 2021 - MAR 2022
OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH
SITES
MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 343.5 83.6 136.0 102.8 103.4 82.5 26.7 93.3 30.0 98.9 50.4 85.3
ANGATDAM 329.1 128.4 263.4 132.9 291.0 141.2 49.4 114.7 23.6 109.6 47.9 149.5
APUNAN 314.8 90.3 175.2 115.4 125.0 90.2 30.2 93.4 32.1 96.6 47.1 75.0
BADAYAN 297.6 96.2 218.2 127.8 129.7 94.6 24.9 89.7 28.0 89.3 39.3 62.8
BINGADAM 360.5 85.8 118.1 94.4 95.2 80.4 25.5 93.1 30.0 104.1 53.1 97.7
BOBOK 356.8 91.7 153.5 99.7 122.6 86.5 32.7 93.7 34.8 102.2 53.4 89.3
BUNGA 395.3 131.0 231.3 122.5 184.3 98.3 71.8 91.2 57.9 106.3 70.5 115.7
BUYOC 312.3 119.0 239.2 116.3 220.3 114.8 47.5 98.0 47.6 118.3 50.7 82.9
DANTOR 316.0 120.5 243.8 115.8 205.9 116.0 36.3 97.5 37.7 112.0 39.7 75.5
DUMAYUP 341.3 122.0 267.9 119.0 264.5 118.6 70.9 100.1 66.9 126.8 67.7 93.2
HALONG 309.8 113.8 241.3 117.6 178.6 107.7 32.9 93.8 35.0 103.5 40.7 71.3
IPODAM 332.0 132.7 0.0 96.4 226.0 134.4 31.1 117.0 8.9 99.7 32.0 125.8
MAGATDAM 310.5 128.5 244.1 120.6 283.5 131.8 54.0 103.0 53.6 137.0 48.8 89.3
MAPUTI 489.9 116.8 436.5 96.6 361.4 120.7 122.3 88.7 140.7 115.1 113.5 107.9
MARIKIT 418.0 132.7 266.8 120.6 287.2 104.1 152.8 101.4 116.3 104.6 120.8 111.6
MATULID 411.3 136.4 526.7 155.6 394.0 140.7 103.5 109.2 94.4 142.4 43.6 84.1
NORZAGARAY 326.7 131.4 0.0 100.3 219.8 132.5 27.4 112.8 5.6 97.0 31.0 126.3
PADALIS 402.4 135.5 257.9 128.7 242.5 104.1 112.8 96.9 87.4 107.2 96.1 115.2
PANTABANGAN DAM 347.3 132.9 184.0 133.3 172.5 99.7 85.1 89.0 64.5 100.8 73.6 117.8
SANROQUEDAM 362.1 112.2 89.2 100.9 75.2 85.8 22.0 83.4 23.4 95.8 43.7 110.3
STODOMINGO 358.2 113.0 244.7 106.6 216.4 105.8 66.1 98.7 61.1 116.8 69.2 96.6
TALAGUIO 412.5 130.0 349.8 128.8 289.0 131.4 60.9 103.6 39.0 100.1 42.7 98.0
UMIRAY 506.3 132.6 756.4 157.1 474.1 133.7 183.3 108.6 167.4 135.0 109.1 92.6
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR OCT - DEC 2021

OCTOBER 2021 NOVEMBER 2021 DECEMBER 2021

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 136.1 316.5 256.5 112.0 23.3 273.2 187.6 101.6 36.0 148.7 101.8 95.0
Abulug RB 241.6 319.9 296.8 111.5 170.6 365.0 281.2 107.6 114.1 246.7 174.7 109.4
Agno RB 266.7 403.5 331.9 127.1 48.9 233.1 112.8 120.4 33.9 153.7 66.2 91.6
Bicol RB 342.5 650.5 450.9 147.0 206.2 678.9 339.7 120.4 360.6 740.1 468.6 108.8
Bued RB 277.7 372.4 333.0 108.4 66.3 97.8 76.1 119.9 36.7 71.9 54.5 85.7
Cagayan RB 288.4 621.4 350.0 120.5 169.0 856.1 310.2 117.5 131.6 702.8 295.7 125.8
Laoag RB 130.8 264.3 206.4 123.6 23.3 219.1 110.3 90.2 41.6 136.6 80.8 93.3
Pampanga RB 221.9 504.5 327.7 130.6 0.0 753.6 156.4 110.4 42.5 438.9 158.1 103.6
Pasig-Laguna RB 308.2 598.6 407.1 148.8 0.0 897.1 373.8 154.5 121.5 583.4 324.1 133.2
Sinocalan RB 275.1 345.9 309.6 127.2 80.7 107.1 93.7 148.1 36.2 68.8 44.3 91.9
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 210.2 254.9 229.0 115.3 136.4 231.5 172.8 122.3 172.8 201.8 187.0 112.8
Agusan RB 210.5 318.0 267.4 120.2 223.1 455.6 282.2 120.4 228.2 412.7 304.1 105.6
Buayan-Malungon 118.2 236.1 187.7 122.3 107.3 228.0 171.0 133.1 117.9 164.6 145.1 106.7
Cagayan de Oro 216.7 292.7 255.0 113.8 137.1 251.5 194.1 128.3 178.5 201.5 190.4 115.1
Cotabato RB 176.0 323.7 260.8 113.1 154.6 275.2 241.1 124.3 127.9 252.3 171.1 108.9
Davao RB 228.8 284.6 254.7 107.2 154.6 273.8 229.2 89.5 182.5 233.9 197.7 112.2
Tagoloan River 243.1 319.2 287.2 114.0 179.6 260.3 228.4 133.9 199.9 238.0 219.9 116.4
Tagum-Libuganon 194.6 291.1 247.0 109.3 173.2 304.7 256.5 106.5 182.8 315.5 245.3 109.8
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR JAN – MAR 2022

JANUARY 2022 FEBRUARY 2022 MARCH 2022

LUZON
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Abra RB 2.7 27.9 13.3 70.0 1.2 26.8 13.5 56.8 1.4 38.8 16.1 38.2
Abulug RB 26.1 107.9 60.0 95.3 17.1 61.9 36.4 70.9 13.4 38.3 24.7 68.1
Agno RB 0.0 47.1 13.5 69.5 1.0 44.6 15.6 86.2 15.5 61.7 30.9 101.7
Bicol RB 157.6 316.4 211.6 126.8 82.7 280.4 145.6 129.3 79.4 250.7 120.6 127.2
Bued RB 3.6 20.4 12.3 79.1 7.7 26.9 16.6 86.3 19.8 55.8 36.0 100.3
Cagayan RB 15.9 288.3 90.1 111.6 17.7 303.3 80.7 121.1 17.9 229.2 67.8 91.4
Laoag RB 5.0 44.9 19.6 62.0 0.3 27.2 10.6 33.7 0.8 18.4 8.0 30.1
Pampanga RB 0.7 206.3 48.8 82.4 0.0 164.2 38.3 89.8 13.2 152.7 47.2 111.6
Pasig-Laguna RB 3.9 253.4 95.1 131.3 0.0 206.2 70.7 124.9 17.5 148.3 54.5 96.7
Sinocalan RB 1.1 17.9 5.7 68.2 5.0 17.8 8.5 74.3 18.6 36.0 22.9 97.2
MINDANAO
CATCHMENT MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal MIN MAX MEAN %Normal
Agus RB 136.0 188.4 154.0 124.7 113.5 139.5 121.7 145.2 84.4 143.4 113.7 156.7
Agusan RB 277.1 779.3 486.2 116.8 218.5 599.8 363.8 129.7 182.0 532.6 312.7 144.1
Buayan-Malungon 109.0 159.5 129.9 105.7 77.0 124.6 102.7 134.5 88.7 133.8 117.6 149.9
Cagayan de Oro 137.2 178.5 150.7 117.9 115.1 137.7 125.8 143.8 90.3 149.4 123.1 151.3
Cotabato RB 108.1 304.5 141.1 116.3 92.7 241.7 132.3 130.4 116.1 230.9 169.3 155.6
Davao RB 149.5 273.7 189.8 104.1 133.6 226.7 167.8 120.0 142.1 222.2 181.1 126.8
Tagoloan River 159.4 271.4 215.0 115.1 133.8 205.0 166.6 141.7 122.2 180.9 147.2 146.3
Tagum-Libuganon 199.4 524.3 334.8 109.4 174.9 402.1 268.3 127.0 179.6 362.7 254.0 134.7
 NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY
D PROVINCE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
R ABRA 22 25 28 30 27 30 21 24 27 30 27 30 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0
BENGUET 17 23 28 29 26 28 16 23 26 30 26 27 -1 0 -2 1 0 -1

Y IFUGAO
KALINGA
18
19
20
21
23
24
28
29
26
27
28
29
15
18
19
21
20
23
28
29
25
26
27
29
-3
-1
-1
0
-3
-1
0
0
-1
-1
-1
0
APAYAO 21 21 24 27 26 29 21 20 23 26 26 29 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 18 22 25 29 27 29 17 21 23 29 26 28 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 24 26 28 29 27 30 24 25 28 30 27 30 0 -1 0 1 0 0
D ILOCOS SUR 21 26 29 30 27 29 21 25 28 31 27 30 0 -1 -1 1 0 1
LA UNION 19 25 29 30 27 28 19 25 28 30 27 28 0 0 -1 0 0 0
A REGION II
PANGASINAN 21 26 29 30 27 29 21 25 29 31 28 28 0 -1 0 1 1 -1

BATANES 16 15 16 17 18 24 13 13 16 18 18 24 -3 -2 0 1 0 0
Y CAGAYAN 18 16 19 23 23 27 17 15 19 22 23 27 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0
ISABELA 17 16 18 23 22 25 15 14 16 23 20 24 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -1
NUEVA VIZCAYA 17 21 24 27 24 26 15 19 22 27 24 26 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0
QUIRINO 16 17 19 22 21 23 14 15 16 22 20 22 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -1
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
F BATAAN 21 24 27 30 27 29 18 24 28 30 28 30 -3 0 1 0 1 1
BULACAN 16 18 22 26 24 27 15 16 21 26 24 27 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0

O NUEVA ECIJA
PAMPANGA
19
20
22
22
26
26
28
29
25
26
27
28
17
19
20
23
25
27
28
30
25
27
27
28
-2
-1
-2
1
-1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
TARLAC 22 25 28 30 27 29 21 24 28 31 28 28 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1
R ZAMBALES
AURORA
21
15
25
15
28
18
29
19
27
18
29
21
20
14
24
13
29
16
31
18
28
17
29
20
-1
-1
-1
-2
1
-2
2
-1
1
-1
0
-1

E NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

METRO MANILA 17 20 26 28 26 29 14 16 22 28 26 28 -3 -4 -4 0 0 -1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
C BATANGAS
CAVITE
18
20
18
23
21
27
25
29
24
27
27
30
17
18
17
21
19
23
24
29
22
26
27
31
-1
-2
-1
-2
-2
-4
-1
0
-2
-1
0
1
LAGUNA 15 15 18 22 22 26 11 11 15 20 21 25 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1
A RIZAL 14 16 20 23 23 26 11 10 16 21 22 25 -3 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1
QUEZON 11 9 10 15 18 22 8 7 7 13 14 19 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3
S REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 12 11 11 17 19 23 9 8 7 14 14 20 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 18 21 23 25 25 28 16 19 20 24 23 27 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -1
T ORIENTAL MINDORO
ROMBLON
16
15
17
16
19
18
22
22
23
23
26
25
14
12
15
13
15
14
20
19
20
20
24
23
-2
-3
-2
-3
-4
-4
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
PALAWAN 16 19 24 28 26 29 15 15 21 28 27 27 -1 -4 -3 0 1 -2
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 13 10 11 15 17 19 10 9 9 13 13 16 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3
CAMARINES NORTE 11 7 8 12 16 21 8 6 5 11 10 17 -3 -1 -3 -1 -6 -4
CAMARINES SUR 12 10 11 16 18 20 9 8 8 14 13 18 -3 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2
CATANDUANES 13 12 15 21 20 22 12 9 11 19 17 21 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1
MASBATE 16 15 16 19 20 24 15 14 13 16 16 22 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2
SORSOGON 14 10 10 12 15 18 11 8 8 8 11 14 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4
 NORMAL (1981 - 2010) FORECAST ANOMALY
D PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

R AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
16
16
15
18
20
17
22
24
20
24
26
23
24
25
23
27
28
26
12
15
12
17
20
16
19
22
18
22
24
21
22
23
20
25
25
24
-4
-1
-3
-1
0
-1
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2

Y GUIMARAS
ILOILO
15
15
19
19
23
22
26
25
25
24
26
26
15
14
19
18
21
20
24
22
21
21
23
24
0
-1
0
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-4
-3
-3
-2
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 15 19 22 25 24 26 13 16 19 24 19 23 -2 -3 -3 -1 -5 -3
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 17 19 21 24 23 26 16 17 18 23 19 23 -1 -2 -3 -1 -4 -3
BOHOL 18 19 20 21 21 25 16 18 19 20 17 23 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2

D CEBU
SIQUIJOR
17
19
19
19
20
20
22
21
22
22
25
26
15
17
16
17
17
17
21
20
18
18
22
24
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-3
-1
-1
-4
-4
-3
-2
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

A BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
15
13
15
8
16
7
20
9
19
12
21
15
12
14
12
9
13
4
12
10
14
10
16
15
-3
1
-3
1
-3
-3
-8
1
-5
-2
-5
0
LEYTE 16 15 15 17 17 20 14 13 12 14 11 17 -2 -2 -3 -3 -6 -3

Y NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
13
13
9
10
8
11
11
13
15
15
18
18
12
12
8
10
5
8
12
11
9
11
17
15
-1
-1
-1
0
-3
-3
1
-2
-6
-4
-1
-3
SOUTHERN LEYTE 16 14 14 14 16 19 15 12 13 13 10 17 -1 -2 -1 -1 -6 -2
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 16 14 18 21 21 25 14 12 16 19 19 21 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 16 14 19 22 21 24 14 12 16 19 19 20 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4

F ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
16 15 19 22 22 24 14 12 17 19 20 20 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4

BUKIDNON 14 17 20 20 19 22 13 15 18 18 17 19 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3

O CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
19
16
19
17
21
20
19
22
21
21
25
25
17
14
19
15
20
18
19
20
16
18
24
22
-2
-2
0
-2
-1
-2
0
-2
-5
-3
-1
-3
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 15 18 20 21 25 14 13 16 18 18 22 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3

R MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
17 19 21 20 21 25 16 19 19 19 16 23 -1 0 -2 -1 -5 -2

COMPOSTELA VALLEY 19 17 19 18 16 20 18 14 17 16 15 17 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3

E DAVAO CITY
DAVAO DEL NORTE
15
16
17
16
21
20
20
19
20
19
21
21
14
16
16
15
20
18
19
17
19
17
20
18
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-2
-1
-3
DAVAO DEL SUR 18 19 22 22 21 23 16 19 21 20 20 22 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1
C DAVAO OCCIDENTAL
DAVAO ORIENTAL
22
21
22
17
24
18
23
17
22
16
26
20
20
19
22
15
22
16
22
16
19
14
24
17
-2
-2
0
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-3
-2
-2
-3
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
A SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
20
15
20
17
23
21
24
21
21
20
24
21
18
14
20
16
21
19
21
19
19
19
22
19
-2
-1
0
-1
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
SARANGANI 22 22 24 24 22 26 20 22 22 22 19 24 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2
S SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
17 18 22 23 21 23 16 17 19 20 18 19 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4

AGUSAN DEL NORTE 18 15 15 13 15 18 16 15 14 11 11 16 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -2

T AGUSAN DEL SUR
DINAGAT ISLANDS
16
15
15
10
15
8
14
8
14
10
17
13
15
13
14
7
14
6
12
7
12
6
15
12
-1
-2
-1
-3
-1
-2
-2
-1
-2
-4
-2
-1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 16 11 9 7 9 12 14 8 7 6 6 11 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 16 12 9 8 9 12 14 11 9 7 7 11 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 -1
ARMM
BASILAN 20 21 25 27 24 26 19 18 23 25 22 22 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4
MAGUINDANAO 16 17 21 22 20 21 14 15 18 19 18 17 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4
LANAO DEL SUR 15 18 21 22 21 23 14 16 18 20 18 20 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3
SULU 21 22 26 28 25 26 20 18 24 26 23 22 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4
TAWI-TAWI 21 21 26 28 25 26 20 17 23 27 24 22 -1 -4 -3 -1 -1 -4
 MONTHLY MEAN cooler

slightly warmer

TEMPERATURE FORECAST average

warmer
slightly warmer

slightly cooler
(OCTOBER 2021 – MARCH 2022)
warmer
warmer
warmer

slightly warmer

cooler
cooler warmer
warmer
warmer warmer

warmer
average
warmer average warmer

average

warmer warmer
warmer

warmer

average average

cooler coole
r

average Slightly
cooler

average
warmer

cooler
cooler
warmer warmer

warmer warmer

average
average

warmer warmer

average

average
 FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 22 September 2021

Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 29.5 37.1 28.4 37.5 28.2 35.2 26.3 35.3 27.2 36.2 29.5 38.0
Lowlands Luzon 29.2 37.0 27.8 39.4 27.2 36.9 26.9 35.7 27.0 36.5 28.8 37.8
Mountainous Luzon 24.9 26.5 25.8 27.5 25.4 27.7 24.8 28.3 25.0 27.1 26.1 28.1
Metro Manila 32.6 35.4 33.3 35.7 32.4 34.7 31.9 35.0 32.1 35.2 34.6 36.7
Lowlands Visayas 32.0 36.1 32.0 36.9 30.3 35.4 30.1 35.0 28.6 38.5 30.5 36.8
Lowlands Mindanao 32.0 36.5 33.0 37.0 31.2 36.7 31.5 36.5 31.6 37.0 32.0 38.3
Mountainous Mindanao 32.0 33.4 31.9 33.6 32.4 33.8 31.6 33.7 32.0 34.7 32.8 34.5

Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 17.9 24.7 16.7 24.6 13.9 22.6 14.0 20.7 12.3 22.3 14.5 23.0
Lowlands Luzon 17.9 24.9 15.9 25.8 16.0 25.5 15.0 25.3 13.3 24.2 17.1 25.2
Mountainous Luzon 14.0 15.4 12.0 13.4 11.0 13.1 9.1 11.6 9.1 11.6 10.8 13.8
Metro Manila 21.6 24.8 20.5 25.7 19.0 24.9 17.9 24.5 17.4 22.8 19.3 24.5
Lowlands Visayas 20.0 25.5 20.0 24.8 18.7 24.5 18.9 25.0 17.1 24.4 18.8 24.6
Lowlands Mindanao 18.3 24.2 19.0 24.2 19.3 23.8 18.6 23.0 17.6 23.2 17.5 23.8
Mountainous Mindanao 17.2 19.0 15.2 17.6 14.3 17.0 14.0 16.5 12.0 15.4 14.0 17.0
 OCTOBER JANUARY
2021 2 OR 3 2022 0 OR 1

NOVEMBER FEBRUARY
2021 2 OR 3 2022 0 or 1

DECEMBER MARCH
2021 1 OR 2 2022 0 or 1

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals

❑ Warning signals are based on wind speed.

TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND TC WIND

SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL SIGNAL
NO. 1 NO. 2 NO. 3 NO. 4 NO. 5

Tropical Cyclone Classification

30 -60 KPH 61- 120KPH 120 - 170 KPH 170- 220 KPH >220KPH Tropical cyclone intensity is based on the strength of the wind.

36 HRS 24 HRS 18 HRS 12 HRS 12 HRS

TROPICAL TROPICAL SEVERE
STORM SUPER
TD TS/STS TY TY STY DEPRESSION TROPICAL TYPHOON
(international TYPHOON
(local name) name)
STORM
Introduced 2015
Since 2015

≤61 KPH 62-88 KPH 89 - 117 KPH 118-220 KPH >220KPH

 Tropical Cyclone-Threat Potential
Initialization: 21 September 2021 @8am

Forecast Summary:
LPA2
LPA1
Week 1 (September 22 – September 28, 2021)
As of today, a low pressure vortex (LPA1) exists inside the western section of the
Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a low likelihood of becoming a
Tropical Cyclone (TC) and will likely move towards Vietnam. Moreover, another
low pressure vortex (LPA2) will likely form outside the PAR. Recent forecast data
suggest that it has a high likelihood of becoming a TC but will likely recurve
towards Southern Japan before entering the PAR.
LPA1
Week 2 (September 29 – October 5, 2021)
Low likelihood of a low pressure vortex formation near or within the PAR.
Therefore, no active TC-threat during the forecast period. However, any changes
in the forecast will be closely monitored.
Note: The information contained herein are based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEP-GEFS issued
in the past 24hrs where the CWB TC Tracking algorithm was applied. This product was part of the
collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECO VOTE Project. This is for guidance
purposes only.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

SUMMARY
 ENSO Alert System Status: LA NINA ALERT
 There is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may
persist until the first quarter of 2022.
 Forecast Rainfall:
• October - December 2021: generally near normal (NN) to above normal (AN) rainfall
conditions in most parts of the country, and the probability of AN is high;
• January – March 2022: generally NN - AN rainfall conditions in most parts of Southern
Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (with higher probability of AN), except for some provinces in
the CAR, Region 1 and Region 3 where below normal (BN) rainfall conditions are likely.
 Forecast temperature ranges from near average to above average over most areas of
the country, except in some parts of northern Luzon and Visayas where below average
temperatures are expected during the forecast period;
 5 – 8 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR from October 2021 –
March 2022.
 PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the
climate conditions that may affect the country and
updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate.

Tentative schedule of next CF:

20 October 2021

33
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