146th National Climate Forum

22 March 2022, 9:30 AM – 12:00 Noon

Via Zoom / FB Live/ YT

CLIMATE OUTLOOK
APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2022

Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Presented by:
Ana Liza S. Solis
AWSC, CLIMPS/CAD
La Niña Update

Climate Outlook
(APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2022)

Summary
La Niña Update
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs)

In the last four weeks,

equatorial SSTs were
below average across
the east-central
and eastern Pacific
Ocean and were above
average in the western
Pacific Ocean.
 La Niña Update
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean
as of 14 March 2022:
During the last two months, positive temperature
weekly SSTA @ niño 3.4 subsurface anomalies shifted eastward and
weakened the negative anomalies at depth.

-1.0 oC

Most recent pentad analysis

Cooler than normal SST in the

central and east pacific while warmer
than normal in the West Pacific
La Niña Update
What are the chances?

Model + Expert judgment ENSO probability forecast Purely objective ENSO probability forecast
 Global Model Forecast Guidance
La Niña Update
until when?

A large majority of the models in the plume

predict SSTs to stay below-normal at the level of a
weak La Niña until Apr-Jun, and then return to
ENSO-neutral levels in May-Jul 2022.
 ENSO Alert System Status:

La Nina Advisory

La Niña is weakening and is likely to continue into the

April-May-June 2022 season and then return to ENSO-
neutral levels in May-Jun-Jul 2022 (updated 21, March)

La Nina increases the likelihood of having above normal

rainfall conditions in some areas of the country.
 Weather systems that may affect the country
APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2022

RIDGE OF HIGH
THUNDERSTORMS INTER-TROPICAL EASTERLIES PRESSURE AREAS (HPAs)
CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

LOW PRESSURE TAIL-END OF THE

AREAS (LPAs) TROPICAL CYCLONES SOUTHWEST
FRONTAL SYSTEM
(SHEAR LINE) MONSOON
In transition (up to mid-May)
 PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than or = 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

For more details
and updates
Greater than 120 above normal

Rainfall Surplus or Reduction

 APRIL 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 10 71 2
 MAY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 0 75 8
 JUNE 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 11 72 0
 JULY 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 27 55 1
 AUGUST 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 2 80 1
 SEPTEMBER 2022
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast

way below normal below normal near normal above normal

0 1 73 9
 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (April - September 2022) as of March 22, 2022
PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER PROVINCE APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
MARINDUQUE 96.2 115.4 109.2 88.0 100.3 97.1 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 112.1 118.0 105.6 107.3 99.1 101.4
ABRA 73.0 92.7 74.5 61.5 86.4 111.4
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 92.0 118.0 100.6 75.8 95.3 121.0 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 113.4 116.8 106.4 106.8 99.2 100.7
BENGUET 92.6 101.1 74.6 66.0 84.2 113.5
ORIENTAL MINDORO 95.6 119.2 102.5 78.2 94.0 111.1 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 112.5 117.7 106.6 106.2 99.1 102.3
IFUGAO 83.9 103.4 78.2 77.4 92.2 114.3
ROMBLON 104.4 112.5 104.6 89.9 102.2 94.1 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
KALINGA 91.3 98.2 71.8 71.2 91.9 117.0
PALAWAN 104.7 114.8 100.2 87.7 94.2 116.6 BUKIDNON 103.1 108.1 95.4 96.0 105.6 94.6
APAYAO 86.9 93.8 67.4 57.2 91.8 111.1
SPRATLY ISLANDS 95.2 110.2 95.3 77.0 93.6 126.9 CAMIGUIN 110.4 118.8 108.9 102.7 104.1 93.3
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 83.8 100.3 75.3 72.6 90.4 115.7
REGION I REGION V (BICOL) LANAO DEL NORTE 117.9 112.0 101.8 100.6 107.1 91.2
ILOCOS NORTE 59.6 86.1 68.2 58.4 88.4 101.3 ALBAY 75.7 101.6 104.1 86.2 100.3 84.2 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 112.9 115.7 104.3 107.9 103.2 93.6
ILOCOS SUR 62.7 94.7 78.4 59.1 84.0 112.7 CAMARINES NORTE 107.8 110.8 104.7 87.5 109.7 96.4 MISAMIS ORIENTAL 119.0 113.4 103.4 105.2 109.1 93.3
LA UNION 80.2 97.2 74.2 59.9 84.0 112.2 CAMARINES SUR 95.1 100.1 99.7 87.1 104.1 79.7 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
PANGASINAN 101.3 96.9 72.6 57.6 80.4 113.5 CATANDUANES 86.5 97.1 110.4 105.4 104.0 86.7 DAVAO DE ORO 111.9 107.1 100.2 96.7 98.1 91.2
REGION II MASBATE 92.1 110.1 103.2 90.7 106.1 107.7 DAVAO CITY 95.5 102.5 96.7 115.4 101.6 88.7
BATANES 100.4 90.7 81.5 66.9 90.8 104.3 DAVAO DEL NORTE 93.6 106.0 96.7 97.0 97.9 91.4
SORSOGON 96.5 105.3 108.6 76.0 106.7 99.8
CAGAYAN 97.1 99.5 70.8 60.2 94.0 116.2 DAVAO DEL SUR 110.4 101.8 99.4 132.0 104.7 90.0
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ISABELA 90.6 106.6 84.4 80.6 97.9 114.3 DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 110.2 104.2 100.9 119.0 103.8 94.5
AKLAN 96.3 116.0 103.5 87.5 100.7 96.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 96.6 107.3 85.4 81.2 94.5 112.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 112.5 106.8 102.2 106.3 100.7 90.9
ANTIQUE 99.5 112.9 101.3 69.5 98.9 105.7
QUIRINO 92.7 110.7 98.9 91.4 104.4 106.6 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
CAPIZ 95.3 118.7 104.8 92.4 101.1 98.3
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTH COTABATO 113.1 105.5 99.4 110.3 103.8 95.8
GUIMARAS 94.3 111.2 104.4 70.8 96.3 115.3
BATAAN 79.7 113.5 114.8 77.1 127.5 190.7 COTABATO 108.0 103.7 96.3 107.7 104.4 92.3
ILOILO 95.8 114.2 104.2 77.4 99.1 106.2
BULACAN 94.4 109.6 98.5 78.7 88.9 127.7 SARANGANI 112.0 105.5 100.2 109.9 103.4 96.3
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 110.8 121.9 104.3 95.8 100.1 113.0
NUEVA ECIJA 76.2 106.6 90.3 81.4 92.9 118.5 SULTAN KUDARAT 112.3 106.2 99.3 104.7 103.6 95.9
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS) REGION XIII- CARAGA
PAMPANGA 70.9 103.5 99.6 65.7 79.9 147.5
NEGROS ORIENTAL 122.0 128.2 100.1 102.0 100.6 108.9 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 112.9 110.5 109.3 106.9 103.2 102.7
TARLAC 68.8 98.0 82.5 55.5 72.2 125.8
ZAMBALES 83.3 102.2 92.2 66.3 98.5 156.5 BOHOL 113.4 130.4 108.1 100.4 105.4 89.0 AGUSAN DEL SUR 107.4 108.6 103.7 101.4 98.3 99.9
AURORA 89.2 111.9 106.7 96.0 109.3 107.3 CEBU 108.1 130.6 105.9 105.2 110.3 98.6 DINAGAT ISLANDS 101.9 112.5 107.5 92.4 100.5 102.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION SIQUIJOR 133.0 129.6 102.1 104.3 102.4 96.0 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 100.0 108.9 112.2 96.4 101.0 105.1
METRO MANILA 89.8 107.9 99.8 66.3 83.6 123.8 REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS) SURIGAO DEL SUR 108.3 108.4 110.6 108.4 97.4 101.0
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) BILIRAN 110.5 118.2 98.3 85.2 110.9 96.9 BARMM
BATANGAS 97.1 114.4 106.7 75.4 94.7 118.5 EASTERN SAMAR 101.6 110.9 109.2 89.6 103.2 97.2 BASILAN 113.6 121.6 110.4 111.2 94.1 110.4
CAVITE 56.3 108.5 103.4 61.4 91.0 131.5 LEYTE 104.9 127.0 101.1 87.8 105.6 92.1 MAGUINDANAO 104.4 105.2 98.0 96.5 104.9 95.0
LAGUNA 90.2 110.7 109.3 86.2 89.6 107.5 NORTHERN SAMAR 104.0 104.9 105.6 82.2 106.5 98.8 LANAO DEL SUR 113.8 108.6 98.1 95.0 107.7 91.9
RIZAL 70.8 111.4 106.4 86.4 88.4 115.4 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 119.0 111.1 104.2 82.9 107.7 97.8 SULU 114.2 118.3 104.1 103.5 99.7 103.3
QUEZON 92.1 114.1 111.6 99.2 102.8 98.9 SOUTHERN LEYTE 95.2 126.3 103.5 85.5 96.8 99.0 TAWI-TAWI 112.2 116.2 101.5 101.8 100.4 103.9
 FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams
in (mm) and (%N) FOR APR - SEP 2022 and Lakes
Pantabangan San Roque
NAME Angat WS La Mesa WS Lake Buhi Lake Lanao Magat WS Malinao WS
WS Cascade WS
MIN 34.8 32.2 0.0 79.5 58.9 88.4 66.4 76.1
MAX 134.7 39.5 100.9 135.1 108.0 100.9 140.8 115.2
APRIL MEAN 67.1 35.8 34.5 110.6 80.7 95.4 99.0 101.7
%NORMAL 85.6 89.0 81.7 119.2 89.9 111.2 95.2 105.1
MIN 232.6 214.7 153.6 159.3 231.2 131.1 257.4 277.8
MAX 249.9 222.9 182.7 216.0 300.6 134.3 282.1 325.1
MAY MEAN 244.2 218.0 162.2 193.6 273.0 132.4 271.2 302.1
%NORMAL 113.4 110.1 98.2 110.0 105.0 130.2 109.1 102.5
MIN 277.9 279.2 174.3 238.6 155.9 163.0 222.1 241.6
MAX 297.8 286.4 210.0 291.8 248.1 171.2 248.5 267.4
JUNE MEAN 289.5 283.0 188.2 269.1 212.9 166.4 229.0 253.2
%NORMAL 101.9 99.6 99.7 98.4 80.4 108.4 91.3 74.9
MIN 385.2 332.9 221.7 225.6 220.2 147.6 267.8 349.4
MAX 405.5 366.4 276.3 331.4 439.9 167.4 325.6 481.7
JULY MEAN 400.6 353.7 258.8 275.6 344.0 156.3 298.0 439.9
%NORMAL 92.4 74.7 87.4 97.9 77.5 99.7 85.7 67.4
MIN 330.9 427.0 209.0 214.7 286.3 144.0 260.2 520.1
MAX 426.5 449.8 251.4 294.0 618.6 162.6 417.4 795.6
AUGUST MEAN 396.1 439.8 231.3 253.7 448.6 154.5 326.0 640.8
%NORMAL 93.8 83.5 100.2 109.3 91.8 104.8 97.9 83.0
MIN 400.5 481.0 253.4 190.3 335.3 141.4 360.7 501.9
MAX 473.8 491.1 280.8 252.5 532.1 166.2 457.3 565.2
SEPTEMBER MEAN 443.6 485.8 272.1 221.1 446.3 153.8 405.5 541.4
%NORMAL 121.6 122.3 77.1 91.1 113.5 88.4 113.9 113.8
DRY DAY FORECAST

April – September 2022

 NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PROVINCE APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
DRY DAY FORECAST CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 22 19 16 15 15 17 25 19 16 15 16 17 2 0 0 0 1 1
BENGUET 19 14 13 11 10 11 20 13 14 12 11 12 1 -1 1 1 1 0
IFUGAO 19 16 15 13 14 14 20 15 16 14 14 14 2 -1 1 1 0 0
KALINGA 22 19 18 16 17 17 23 20 19 17 17 17 2 1 1 1 0 0
APAYAO 24 21 21 19 19 18 25 24 22 20 20 18 1 3 2 1 0 0
April – September 2022 MOUNTAIN PROVINCE
REGION I
20 17 16 14 14 15 22 16 16 15 14 15 2 -1 0 1 0 1

ILOCOS NORTE 25 21 20 18 18 19 26 25 22 19 19 19 1 4 2 1 1 0
ILOCOS SUR 21 17 13 12 12 14 23 15 13 13 13 15 3 -1 0 0 1 1
LA UNION 20 15 13 11 11 12 21 14 14 12 12 12 1 -1 1 1 1 0
PANGASINAN 23 18 16 14 14 15 23 20 17 15 14 15 0 2 2 2 1 0
REGION II
BATANES 21 18 19 17 14 14 22 19 20 17 15 14 1 1 1 0 0 0
CAGAYAN 23 21 21 20 20 18 24 24 23 21 20 18 1 3 2 1 0 -1
ISABELA 20 19 19 17 18 17 21 20 19 18 18 17 2 1 1 1 0 0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 17 15 14 13 13 13 18 15 15 14 13 13 1 0 1 1 1 0
QUIRINO 16 16 15 14 15 14 17 17 16 16 15 15 1 1 1 2 0 0
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 24 20 17 14 14 15 25 23 21 16 16 15 1 4 5 2 2 0
BULACAN 22 17 15 13 14 13 22 19 18 15 14 14 0 2 3 2 0 0
NUEVA ECIJA 21 18 16 14 14 14 22 18 17 15 15 15 0 1 1 1 1 0
PAMPANGA 22 18 16 13 14 15 23 21 19 15 14 15 1 3 3 2 1 0
TARLAC 23 18 16 13 14 15 23 21 18 15 14 15 0 3 2 2 1 0
ZAMBALES 23 19 15 13 13 15 24 21 18 16 14 14 1 3 3 3 1 -1
AURORA 15 16 15 15 16 14 17 18 16 17 16 15 1 2 1 2 0 1
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 22 19 15 12 13 13 23 19 17 14 13 13 1 1 1 2 0 1
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 22 21 18 16 17 17 23 19 20 17 17 18 1 -2 2 2 0 1
CAVITE 24 22 19 15 15 16 24 21 21 17 17 17 0 0 3 1 1 1
LAGUNA 21 18 15 13 14 13 22 19 16 14 14 14 1 0 1 1 0 1
RIZAL 21 17 13 12 12 11 21 19 15 13 11 13 0 2 2 1 -1 1
QUEZON 19 17 14 15 16 14 20 18 15 17 17 14 1 0 0 2 0 1
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 19 18 15 15 17 15 21 18 15 17 18 15 2 0 0 2 1 0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 23 21 16 15 16 16 23 19 17 16 17 16 1 -2 1 1 1 0
ORIENTAL MINDORO 21 20 16 15 17 16 22 18 16 16 17 16 1 -2 0 1 1 0
ROMBLON 21 19 14 15 17 15 22 18 14 16 17 15 1 -2 0 1 0 0
PALAWAN 22 21 16 17 18 16 23 19 18 17 17 16 1 -2 1 1 -1 0
Spratly Islands 28 27 26 25 29 27 27 27 29 29 26 23 -1 0 3 3 -4 -3
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 16 17 14 13 14 13 17 17 16 15 14 13 1 0 1 2 0 0
CAMARINES NORTE 20 18 15 16 17 14 20 18 15 18 18 14 1 0 0 2 0 0
CAMARINES SUR 18 18 15 15 16 13 18 17 15 16 15 13 0 -1 1 1 0 0
CATANDUANES 16 18 15 15 17 15 17 15 15 15 15 16 1 -3 0 0 -2 1
MASBATE 22 21 17 16 17 16 23 21 18 18 16 16 1 0 1 2 -1 0
SORSOGON 17 18 15 14 15 14 18 18 16 16 15 15 1 0 1 2 -1 0
 NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
DRY DAY FORECAST PROVINCE APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 21 19 14 15 17 16 23 17 14 16 17 15 1 -2 0 1 0 0
ANTIQUE 22 18 14 14 16 15 24 17 14 15 16 15 1 -1 0 1 0 0
CAPIZ 21 19 15 16 17 16 23 17 15 17 17 16 1 -2 0 1 -1 0
GUIMARAS 22 19 14 15 16 16 24 18 14 15 16 16 2 -1 0 0 0 0
ILOILO 22 19 14 15 17 16 23 18 14 16 16 16 2 -1 0 1 0 0
April – September 2022 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
23 21 16 17 18 17 24 19 16 17 17 17 1 -2 0 0 -1 0

NEGROS ORIENTAL 23 22 17 18 19 18 24 19 17 17 19 18 0 -2 0 0 0 0
BOHOL 20 20 17 17 18 17 21 20 17 18 19 18 1 -1 1 2 1 1
CEBU 22 21 17 17 18 17 23 19 16 18 18 17 1 -2 0 1 -1 1
SIQUIJOR 21 21 16 17 19 19 22 20 17 18 20 19 0 -1 1 1 1 0
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 19 20 15 16 18 15 20 19 16 16 16 16 1 -2 1 0 -1 1
EASTERN SAMAR 13 15 12 14 17 15 14 13 12 14 17 15 1 -2 0 0 0 1
LEYTE 18 20 15 16 17 16 19 16 16 16 17 16 1 -4 1 0 -1 0
NORTHERN SAMAR 16 17 14 15 18 15 17 16 13 16 17 16 1 -1 -1 1 0 1
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 15 17 13 14 17 15 16 16 13 15 17 15 1 -2 0 0 0 1
SOUTHERN LEYTE 19 20 16 16 17 16 19 18 17 17 17 17 0 -3 1 1 0 1
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 20 19 15 17 18 17 21 16 14 18 16 17 1 -3 -1 1 -1 0
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 19 18 14 16 17 16 20 15 13 17 16 16 1 -2 -1 1 -1 0
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 20 19 15 17 18 17 21 16 14 18 16 17 1 -3 -1 1 -1 0
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 18 14 12 13 14 13 18 14 13 14 12 13 0 0 1 1 -1 0
CAMIGUIN 21 20 17 17 18 18 21 19 17 17 19 19 1 -1 1 1 1 1
LANAO DEL NORTE 19 17 13 15 16 16 20 16 13 15 15 16 1 -1 0 1 -1 1
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 19 17 14 15 17 16 20 16 13 17 16 16 1 -1 0 2 -1 0
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 20 18 15 16 17 17 21 17 16 16 17 18 1 -1 1 0 0 1
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMPOSTELA VALLEY 17 16 16 17 17 18 17 16 15 17 17 20 0 0 0 0 0 2
DAVAO CITY 19 17 15 16 16 16 19 17 15 17 16 18 0 0 -1 1 -1 1
DAVAO DEL NORTE 18 16 15 16 16 16 18 16 14 17 15 17 0 0 0 1 -1 1
DAVAO DEL SUR 20 19 17 18 19 18 20 19 16 19 19 19 0 0 -1 1 1 1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 22 20 21 21 21 22 23 19 21 24 23 0 0 -1 0 2 1
DAVAO ORIENTAL 17 18 17 18 18 20 17 18 16 18 19 22 0 0 0 0 1 2
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 21 20 17 18 20 18 21 20 16 19 21 19 0 0 -1 1 1 1
COTABATO 18 16 13 15 16 14 18 16 13 16 15 15 0 0 0 1 -1 1
SARANGANI 22 22 19 20 21 20 22 22 18 21 23 21 0 0 -1 1 2 1
SULTAN KUDARAT 19 18 15 17 18 16 19 18 14 18 18 17 0 -1 -1 1 0 1
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 18 19 15 18 19 18 19 16 15 18 18 18 1 -3 -1 0 -1 0
AGUSAN DEL SUR 16 15 13 15 16 16 17 13 13 16 15 16 1 -2 0 1 -1 0
DINAGAT ISLANDS 14 19 14 17 18 17 15 18 14 17 18 18 1 -2 1 1 0 1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 14 19 14 17 18 18 15 17 14 18 18 18 1 -2 0 0 0 0
SURIGAO DEL SUR 14 16 13 16 17 17 15 14 13 17 16 18 1 -2 0 0 0 1
ARMM
BASILAN 21 21 18 19 20 19 22 18 17 18 20 20 1 -3 -1 -1 0 1
MAGUINDANAO 18 16 13 15 17 15 18 15 13 16 15 15 0 -1 0 1 -1 0
LANAO DEL SUR 18 15 13 14 15 14 19 15 13 14 14 15 0 0 0 1 -1 1
SULU 21 22 19 20 21 20 22 19 19 19 22 21 1 -2 0 -1 1 1
TAWI-TAWI 21 23 21 21 23 21 22 20 21 20 23 22 1 -4 0 -1 0 1
 MONTHLY MEAN slightly cooler

TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(APRIL-SEPTEMBER 2022)
warmer warmer

slightly cooler

cooler slightly warmer cooler

average

slightly warmer

average
warmer
warmer

slightly warmer slightly warmer

slightly cooler
average

average

warmer warmer warmer

warmer
Slightly ooler

warmer
slightly warmer

average

cooler
slightly cooler
average
slightly warmer

slightly cooler
cooler
average

warmer
slightly
slightly warmer warmerJK

average

slightly warmer
slightly warmer average
 FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE
Updated : 22 March 2022

Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22

TMAX Summary
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Northern Luzon 30.0 39.5 31.2 40.7 31.7 39.2 31.0 38.6 30.4 37.5 29.9 36.6
Lowlands Luzon 29.8 39.8 30.5 40.3 30.5 38.4 29.5 40.1 28.5 39.1 29.0 36.8
Mountainous Luzon 26.4 29.6 26.4 29.3 26.2 28.5 26.1 27.5 25.5 27.5 24.9 26.5
Metro Manila 35.4 38.2 35.7 38.0 34.9 37.3 35.1 37.0 33.0 37.1 32.6 35.8
Lowlands Visayas 32.0 36.2 32.4 37.9 32.6 38.6 32.1 36.4 31.8 37.1 31.0 36.3
Lowlands Mindanao 32.5 39.6 33.4 38.4 32.7 37.9 33.0 40.3 33.3 37.5 33.7 37.5
Mountainous Mindanao 32.7 36.5 33.4 36.5 32.0 34.5 31.8 33.0 32.0 33.5 32.0 33.2

Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22

TMIN Summary
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
Northern Luzon 15.1 24.5 19.7 25.0 19.2 25.2 14.7 25.1 12.9 25.0 16.1 24.5
Lowlands Luzon 16.0 26.7 18.2 27.0 18.0 26.1 17.0 25.3 17.0 25.0 18.0 27.9
Mountainous Luzon 12.2 15.2 15.0 16.2 14.3 16.3 14.2 15.5 14.1 15.6 14.0 15.4
Metro Manila 19.8 25.6 22.9 25.5 23.0 24.9 22.1 24.5 21.8 24.1 22.4 24.6
Lowlands Visayas 20.5 26.3 20.0 25.5 20.4 29.0 19.8 25.1 20.0 25.2 20.5 25.1
Lowlands Mindanao 19.8 25.2 21.5 25.5 20.0 24.3 20.5 24.2 19.3 25.0 20.6 24.1
Mountainous Mindanao 15.0 17.1 15.8 18.1 17.0 18.9 16.0 18.0 10.7 19.0 14.9 19.2
 Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015

APRIL JULY
0 or 1 1 to 3
2022 2022
MAY AUGUST
0 or 1 2 or 3
2022 2022
JUNE SEPTEMBER
1 OR 2 2 or 3
2022 2022
SUMMARY
▪ ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory #6
• La Niña is weakening and is likely to continue into the April-May-June 2022 season
and then return to ENSO-neutral levels in May-Jun-Jul 2022
• Forecast Rainfall
• April 2022- generally near normal rainfall conditions over most parts of the country, except for
below normal rainfall conditions in Abra, Ilocos provinces, most of Region 3, Cavite, Rizal and
Albay;
• May2022 – near normal rainfall conditions are expected in most areas of the country, however,
Negros Occ., Central Visayas, Leyte, Southern Leyte and Basilan are likely to receive above
normal rainfall;
• June 2022 – generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected in most parts of the country
except for CAR, Region I and Cagayan where below normal rainfall conditions are likely;
• July 2022 – generally below normal rainfall conditions are likely in most parts of Luzon and
some parts of Visayas, while near normal rainfall conditions for the rest of the country;
• August 2022 – generally near normal rainfall conditions are expected throughout the country;
• September 2022 – generally near normal rainfall conditions except for Central Luzon, Metro
Manila, Cavite, Occ. Mindoro and Spratly Islands where above normal conditions are likely.
SUMMARY
▪ Forecast Temperature
• Generally, surface air temperatures range from below average to slightly above
average in most areas of the country during the period are predicted. However, in
May, most parts of central Luzon are likely to experience warmer than average
temperatures.

▪ Tropical Cyclone Forecast

• 6 – 9 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the PAR from April to
September 2022.
 http://www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH

@dost_pagasa

Phone
(02)8-284-0800 loc. 906

Email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com
Email:asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section