ABOUT ME

I am Kinjal Choudhary

Have appeared in UPSC CSE

Interview
Have appeared in 5 UPSC
CSE Mains

https://t.me/Unacademy_KC10_KinjalSir

https://unacademy.com/@kinjal_choudhary
 About IPCC
• Set up in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organisation
(WMO) and the UN Environment
Programme (UNEP), the IPCC does
not itself engage in scientific
research.
• Instead, it asks scientists from
around the world to go through all
the relevant scientific literature
related to climate change and draw
up the logical conclusions.
 About IPCC Assessment Report
• Every few years, the IPCC
produces an Assessment
Report, which examines all
the scientific literature
dealing with different aspects
of climate change published
in the years since the last
report. So far 5 such
assessment reports have
been published.
 About IPCC Assessment Report
• The IPCC reports are created by three working
groups of scientists.
• Working Group-I: deals with the scientific
basis for climate change.
• Working Group-II looks at the likely impacts,
vulnerabilities and adaptation issues
• Working Group-III deals with actions that
can be taken to combat climate change i.e.
mitigation.
• Working Group –I Report was released
yesterday titled Climate Change 2021: The
Physical Science Basis
About IPCC Assessment Report 6
TIMELINE FOR AR 6
WG-I: August 9
• AR 5 was the foundational WG-II: February 2022
basis for drawing up Paris W.G- III: March 2022
Agreement AR-6 Synthesis Report:
October 2022 before
UNFCCC COP 28
 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
The Current State of the
Climate
• Human influence has
warmed the atmosphere,
ocean and land.
Widespread and rapid
changes in the
atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere and
biosphere have occurred.
 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
The Current State of the •
HIGH CONFIDENCE ESTIMATES
In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher
Climate than at any time in at least 2 million years.
• Global surface temperature has increased faster since
• The scale of recent 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the
changes across the last 2000 years
• In 2011–2020, annual average Arctic sea ice area
climate system as a reached its lowest level since at least 1850
• Global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than
whole and the present over any preceding century in at least the last 3000
state of many aspects of years

the climate system are

unprecedented over
many centuries to many
thousands of years.
 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
The Current State of the Climate
• Human-induced climate change is already
affecting many weather and climate extremes
in every region across the globe.
• Evidence of observed changes in extremes such
as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts,
and tropical cyclones, has strengthened since
AR5 and their attribution to anthropogenic
factors is also certain.
 Possible Climate Futures
• Global surface temperature will
continue to increase until at least
the mid-century under all emissions
scenarios considered.
• Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will
be exceeded during the 21st century
unless deep reductions in CO2 and
other greenhouse gas emissions
occur in the coming decades.
 Possible Climate Futures
• Many changes in the climate system are resulting and
aggravating due to global warming.
• They include:
• Increases in the frequency and intensity of hot
temperature extremes
• Marine heatwaves
• Heavy precipitation
• Agricultural and ecological droughts in some
regions
• Intense tropical cyclones
• Reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and
permafrost.
 Possible Climate Futures
• Many changes due to
past and future
greenhouse gas
emissions are
irreversible for centuries
to millennia, especially
changes in the ocean, ice
sheets and global sea
level.
 Irreversible Changes
• Mountain and polar glaciers are committed to continue melting for
decades or centuries (very high confidence).
• Loss of permafrost carbon following permafrost thaw is irreversible
at centennial timescales (100 years) (high confidence).
• Continued ice loss over the 21st century is virtually certain for the
Greenland Ice Sheet and likely for the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
• It is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise
over the 21st century.
• very low scenario
(SSP1-1.9)
• low scenario (SSP1-
2.6)
• intermediate scenario
(SSP2-4.5)
• high scenario (SSP3-
7.0)
• very high scenario
(SSP5-8.5)
• very low scenario
(SSP1-1.9)
• low scenario (SSP1-
2.6)
• intermediate scenario
(SSP2-4.5)
• high scenario (SSP3-
7.0)
• very high scenario
(SSP5-8.5)
• very low scenario
(SSP1-1.9)
• low scenario (SSP1-
2.6)
• intermediate scenario
(SSP2-4.5)
• high scenario (SSP3-
7.0)
• very high scenario
(SSP5-8.5)
 Multiple Climatic Impact Drivers
• Climatic impact-drivers (CIDs) are physical climate system
conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element
of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs
and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a
mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.
• The CIDs are grouped into seven types. All regions are projected
to experience changes in at least 5 CIDs. Almost all (96%) are
projected to experience changes in at least 10 CIDs and half in at
least 15 CIDs.
• Panel a) shows the 30 CIDs relevant to the land and coastal
regions while panel b) shows the 5 CIDs relevant to the open
ocean regions
 Limiting Future Climate Changes
• From a physical science perspective, limiting
human-induced global warming to a specific level
requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions.
• Reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along
with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas
emissions like methane is the need of the hour
• Over the period 1850–2019, a total of 2390 ± 240
(likely range) GtCO2 of anthropogenic CO2 was
emitted.
• There is a near-linear relationship between
cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the
global warming they cause as shown in next graph
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