September 03, 2021

Current Situation – COVID-19 in Wichita County

Updated and published weekly, Figure 1 provides: total cases to date, number of active cases who are hospitalized or
recovering at home, number of recoveries, deaths, and number of individuals who are vaccinated.

Figure 1.
Vaccine Breakthrough Case (VBT) analysis is provided biweekly – Figure 2a (top). Also provided each week is the
percent of new cases that are not vaccinated – Figure 2b.

Figures 2a (top) and 2b (bottom).

 Analysis of Situation

The “4 Week Analysis” (Figure 3) provides a comparison of the two 4-week periods from July 10 to August 06, 2021,
and August 07 to September 03, 2021 for five categories. Significant increases were demonstrated in all five
categories.

Figure 3.
The dramatic rise of new cases received each week is detailed below in Figure 4. The challenge this year can be seen
in the slope of the line from starting out at less than 50 cases per week to over 500 per week. This rise was seen in
2020 during the period from June 11 to October 16, 2020 (18 weeks); this year, that rise only covers June 4 to August
20, 2021 (11 weeks).

Figure 4.

The ages of cases received in the last four weeks is presented in Figure 5. In the first two weeks, those in the 20-29
and 30-39 age categories were the highest percentage of new cases. In the last two weeks, those in the 11-19
category account for the highest percentage.

Figure 5.
 Percent of Cases by Age by Week
0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59
60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above

21.14%

21.11%
20.07%

18.83%
17.45%
17.09%

16.39%
15.42%

14.57%

14.46%
13.93%

13.68%
12.69%

11.44%
11.33%
11.15%
10.95%

10.73%
10.61%

10.47%

10.22%
9.95%

9.91%
8.85%
8.48%
7.21%

7.19%
5.58%

5.31%
4.68%
4.14%
3.73%
3.73%

3.62%
3.42%

3.37%

3.30%
1.62%
1.24%

0.94%
W eek En d i n g 8 /1 3 W eek En d i n g 8 /2 0 W eek En d i n g 8 /2 7 W eek En d i n g 9 /3
4 0 2 C ases 5 5 6 C ases 8 0 2 C ases 8 4 8 C ases

As indicated in Figures 6a and 6b, the type of spread has changed over time. During the period of August 2021 (Figure
6a), the type of spread was determined to be community spread (57%), contact (20%), close/household contact
(22%), and travel (1%). Cases to date (figure 6b), has community spread (46%), contact (33%), close/household
contact (20%), and travel (1%). The increase in community spread, where no index case can be identified, is
concerning in that there are less public health interventions that can be utilized to curtail further spread when the
source is not identifiable.
 Wichita County COVID Cases by Type
August 2021

Contact
20%

Community Spread
57% Close Contact
22%

Travel
1%

Figures 6a (top) and 6b (bottom).

Wichita County COVID Cases by Type

Cases to Date

Contact
33%
Community
Spread
46%

Close Contact
20%

Travel
1%

The one category of spread that can be further analyzed in an effort to reduce spread is the “contact” category –
where there is an index case identified and is considered the most likely source of infection in these subsequent
cases. As detailed in Figure 7, of the 20% that were determined to be “contact” for the month of August 2021, the
most listed sub-categories were family, school/student, friends, employee/outbreak and co-worker.

Figure 7.
 Contact by Sub-Category; August 2021
Caretaker
Jail
Party
Daycare
Unknown
OOJ
School/Staff
Church
Co-Worker
Employee/Outbreak
Friends
School/student
Family
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

United Regional Health Care System provided hospitalization information in a snapshot on data taken on September
02, 2021, for their COVID-19 admissions by age – Figure 8. The highest category of individuals is in their 60s. As
indicated on the graph, 88% of their COVID-19 patients are unvaccinated.

Figure 8.
Several months after COVID-19 vaccine became available in our community, we noted the age of individuals who
died while an active case shifting from the 80+ demographic to lower ages. The first 320 deaths (April 15, 2020 to
March 03, 2021) are compared to the last 47 (March 04 to September 03, 2021) in Figure 9a (top). Figure 9b
(bottom) looks specifically at the last 47 deaths and whether those individuals who died were vaccinated or
unvaccinated.
Figure 9a (top) and Figure 9b (bottom).

Age of Death Over Time

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+

First 320 Deaths Last 47 Deaths

Deaths in Vaccinated & Unvaccinated Individuals

by Age
March 4 to September 3, 2021
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Total

Unvaccinated Deaths Vaccinated Deaths

A similar trend to the one illustrated in Figure 9b above is that of COVID-19 hospitalizations among vaccinated and
unvaccinated individuals and the level of care required based on that status. As indicated in Figure 10, the total
number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at United Regional Health Care System as of September 2, 2021, was 96; of
those, 12 were vaccinated and 84 were unvaccinated. Of the 96 hospitalized, there were 26 in critical care; of those,
1 was vaccinated and 25 were unvaccinated.

Figure 10.

If the Current Trend Continues

Using forecasting models based on the latest trends (June 04 – September 03, 2021) in Figure 11, the estimate is for
1,000 new cases per week starting the week of September 17, 2021. The 2020 cases for the same time period are
overlaid on the graph for reference. The highest weekly cases amount reported in Wichita County since the start of
the pandemic was 1,185 for the week ending December 31, 2020, and 1,187 for the week ending January 7, 2021.
This forecast does not account for future large gatherings or other events.

Figure 11.

2000

1800

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200

0
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/ 4/ 11 18 25 / 2 /9 16 23 30 /6 13 20 27 /3 10 17 24 /1 /8 15 22 29
6 6/ 6/ 6/ 7 7 7/ 7/ 7/ 8 8/ 8/ 8/ 9 9/ 9/ 9/ 10 10 / / /
10 10 10

New Cases Forecast(New Cases) Lower Confidence Bound(New Cases)

Upper Confidence Bound(New Cases) 2020 Actual New Cases
One of the most concerning trends is the increase in number of COVID-19 positive Wichita County residents who are
hospitalized. Figure 12 provides information specific to hospitalizations since June 04, 2021; using linear regression
analysis based on the max daily hospitalization, if the trend continues at this current rate of increase, the projection
for hospitalizations at the end of October is 120 patients.

Figure 12.

Max Daily Hospitalizations by Week

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
5/24/21 6/13/21 7/3/21 7/23/21 8/12/21 9/1/21 9/21/21 10/11/21 10/31/21 11/20/21

Hospitalized Linear (Hospitalized)

AKF