COVID 19 SIMULATIONS

Abstract:

Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting the possibility of spreading

diseases around the world, such as the disease caused by the new Coronavirus
(SARS-Cove-2), which the World Health Organization has called COVID-19. In
the early days of the outbreak of a new virus, when reliable data are still scarce,
researchers resort to mathematical models that can predict where the likely people
will go to and the likelihood of transmitting it to those places. These computer
models use well-known statistical equations that calculate the probability of
disease transmission from infected people to others.
The process of simulating health matters, especially virus agents, has many factors.
Simulation results are taken very seriously, especially for decision-makers, because
these results show how it spreads within society and takes economic decisions.

Introduction:

Through modern computing capabilities, specialists can quickly incorporate

multiple inputs into these models, such as the ability of a specific disease to
transmit from one person to another, and the movement patterns of air and land
travelers among those potentially ill. Sometimes this process involves making
assumptions about unknown factors, such as the exact patterns of individual travel.
But by inserting different possible versions of each entry into these models,
researchers can update them as new information becomes available and compare
their results with observed patterns of disease prevalence. For example, if
specialists want to study the potential impact of closing a particular airport on the
spread of a disease around the world, the computers they use can quickly
recalculate the likelihood of cases arriving through other airports, and all that
humans need to do is update the airline network and international travel patterns.

But when missing data is used, a slight error in one factor can dramatically affect
the results. Model results may be disrupted in the absence of exact values for a
factor such as the basic reproductive number (R0) of "Covid-19" disease, which is
the average number of new cases that each person infected with the disease infects.
"If you are wrong about this number, there will be a huge error in your estimates,"
says Dirk Brockmann, a physicist at the Institute for Theoretical Biology at
Humboldt University in Berlin and the Robert Koch Institute in Germany. The
current estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) of the new corona virus
range from 2 to 3, thus approaching the basic reproduction number of the "SARS"
virus, which ranged between 2 and 4 in 2003, but at the same time it is much less
than the basic reproduction number of the measles virus, That ranges between 12
and 18.

What is the primary reproductive factor in Coronavirus (R)

There is a simple, but critical, number that lies at the core of understanding the
threat posed by the Coronavirus. It guides governments around the world on the
measures needed to save lives, and gives us clues about how long the ban lasts and
when it can be lifted.
This number is called the number of reproduction or reproduction of the virus and
is simply denoted by the English letter "R" for the word "Reproduction".
What is the number "R"?
It is an acronym for the number of reproduction, which is a term used in
epidemiology (referring to the reproduction of the virus and its transmission to new
people), and it represents a method of assessing the ability of a disease to spread.

Sometimes called the "basic reproductive rate", it may be referred to inaccurately

as the "basic reproductive rate" of infection.
The number represents the number of cases produced by one case during the period
of infection, among an uninfected group, or the average number of people to whom
a person infected with the virus will transmit the infection.

Measles disease achieves one of the highest numbers when its outbreak in a town,
with the reproduction number is 15, meaning that one infected person transmits the
infection to 15 other people who do not have immunity to the disease, and thus this
could cause a large outbreak of the disease.

The reproduction number for the emerging corona virus, officially known as
SARS-Cove-2, is around 3, but estimates vary.
Why does this number become dangerous if it exceeds 1?

If the reproduction number is higher than 1, the number of cases increases

exponentially, and it has the effect of a snowball, or debt buildup, on a credit card
that does not pay off debts.

But if the number is less than one, the disease will eventually go away as not
enough new people are infected to keep the outbreak continuing.

And governments everywhere want to reduce the reproduction number for

coronavirus from about 3 to less than 1.

This is the reason why you are denied access to your relatives and friends, you are
obligated to work from home, and your studies will stop. The goal of preventing
people from coming into contact with each other is to reduce the ability of the virus
to spread.
To understand the issue spreading in society more and the concept of (R), we will
present an example of Britain and how the government deals with it.

The reproduction number is not fixed, but rather changes our behavior or the
evolution of our immunity.

Mathematicians at Imperial College in the British capital, London, are trying to

track how the number changed with the imposition of isolation measures, social
distancing, and total lockdown.

Before taking any of these measures, the number was much higher than one and
conditions were ripe for a widespread outbreak of the disease. Cascading
restrictions reduced the number, but it was only pushed below a single figure when
the lockdown was imposed.

It's a bit technical, but scientists refer to the reproductive number at this stage as
"Rt", instead of "R", because the number changes over time.

The number now appears to be around 0.7. There are some doubts surrounding this
type of measurement, but there is a high degree of confidence among scientific
advisers to the British government that the number is less than one.

The situation is different in some hospitals and care homes where the virus has
spread.

So how does this affect the lockdown lift?

As countries contemplate how to lift the lockdown, their goal remains to keep the
reproduction number below one.

Dr Adam Kucharsky, from the London School of Public Health and Tropical
Medicine, told the BBC: "It is a huge challenge to ensure that you do not loosen
the lockdown restrictions so much that there is an increase in transmission."
In spite of the matter required a tremendous effort, which caused harm to people's
lives, to reduce the number from 3 to 0.7, Dr. Kocharsky believes: "Keeping the
number without one does not give you much space to move and play in it."

Earlier this April, the number of children in Germany had dropped to around 0.7,
the same number now in Britain.

But the Robert Koch Institute said the number had increased to 1 in recent days,
before dropping again to 0.75.

Professor Lothar Wheeler, president of the institute, said: "The number should
remain below 1, and that is the big goal."

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The timeline for developing and distributing a COVID-19 vaccine.

Vaccines can take several years to develop. This is especially noticeable when
developing vaccines using new technologies that have not previously been
subjected to safety tests or are not yet ready for mass production.

Why does it take so long? First, the vaccine is tested on animals to see if it is
effective and safe. Those responsible for these tests must adhere to strict laboratory
guidelines, and these tests generally take three to six months. Also, quality and
safety practices must be adhered to during vaccine manufacturing.

The next step is to test the vaccine in humans. In the first phase, mini clinical trials
are being conducted to test the vaccine’s safety in humans. During the second
phase, the composition and dose of the vaccine are adjusted to verify its
effectiveness. Finally, during the third stage, the safety and effectiveness of the
vaccine must be confirmed by testing it on a larger group of people.

Given the severity of Covid-19, regulators responsible for vaccines may accelerate
some of these steps. In the United States of America, the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) can issue an emergency license to use a Covid 19 vaccine if
results from a phase III clinical trial show that the vaccine is safe and effective and
that its benefits outweigh its risks. Even if an emergency license is issued, the
expectation is that the vaccine developer will continue to collect safety
information.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will make recommendations
regarding use of the Covid 19 vaccine in the United States based on data received
from the Advisory Board for Immunization Practices (ACIP), a federal advisory
group made up of medical and public health experts. If the US Food and Drug
Administration approves the use of a vaccine or issues an emergency license to use
it, the Immunization Practices Advisory Board will meet to review vaccine data
and vote on whether it can be used and what population groups should take it.

Also, bear in mind that it will take some time to produce, distribute and vaccinate
people around the world with it. In the event of an initial shortage of vaccine
supplies, the Advisory Board for Immunization Practices discussed the issue of
giving priority to health sector employees and employees of critical and essential
sectors, groups at high risk of developing severe Covid 19 symptoms due to latent
cases, and people aged 65 years and over.
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