I guess?

Source: https://bestoutcome.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Man-thinking-
questionmarks_short.jpg

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

 iPhone
MacBook
Samsung 11 Pro
ProMax
Galaxy
(6.5-inch
A50display)
2.4GHz

Price: 13,940.53
Price: 73,990
107,990

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Estimation of Parameters

 Basic Concepts of Estimation

 Interval Estimates
 Statistics It has a numerical measure that describes a sample

It has a numerical measure that describes a population. It

Parameter
doesn’t change.

Random It is a sample in which every element in the population has

Sample an equal chance of being chosen

Population It is a kind of parameter. It deals with the mean of the entire

Means elements.

Sample It is a statistic that deals with the mean of the random samples
Mean taken from the population.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Property of STI SH1901 Weeks 10 - 12
Estimation Theory

Point Computing for a single

Estimation value

 
A single value of a Point
statistic . Estimate Point Rule or formula to
Estimator compute for the point
estimate

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation

If the estimator is UNBIAS!

Choose the estimator whose sampling distribution

has a smaller variance, also known as the minimum
variance unbiased estimator (MVUE).

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation

If the estimator is UNBIAS!

 Statistic is said to be an unbiased estimator of the

parameter if its expected value is equal to , that is, the
distribution of the sample mean is equal to the population
mean.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation
Accurate and Precise?

Accurate Not Accurate Not accurate

and precise accurate but not and not
but precise precise precise

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concept of Estimation
Which is the best estimator?

  Sample Mean   Sample Median

vs

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation
Example
 Suppose that a random sample of 10 students have the following
grades in mathematics:

1. What is the best point estimate for the true average grade in
the mathematics?

2. If the population variance of grades in mathematics is 100,

what is the standard error of the point estimate?

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation
 Thesample mean is the best unbiased estimator of the
population mean, which the true average grade of .

 Thepopulation standard deviation of the grades is The

standard error of the sample mean is given by

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates

Point Estimate Interval Estimate

Single value computed from Range of possible values

a random variable sample to of the unknown parameter.
represent an unknown
parameter.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates

Interval Constructing an
Estimation interval of possible
values from a random
sample
The general form when Interval
the lower and upper Estimate Rule or formula that
Interval
limits of the range of
Estimator describes the
values are computed. calculation

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Attach the degree of confidence
 
1− 𝛼

An interval estimate with an attached degree of

confidence is called confidence interval.
 ( 1− 𝛼 ) 100 %

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Basic Concepts of Estimation
Which is the better estimate?

95% confidence 99% confidence

interval estimate vs interval estimate

If you use the 99% level of confidence, you will be

more confident, but your estimate will be less precise.
If you use the 95% level of confidence, you will be less
confident but your estimate will be more precise. The
larger the target, the more likely you are to hit it.
Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12
Interval Estimates
Interval Estimate for the Population
Mean: Variance is Known

  𝜎 𝜎
𝑥−𝑧𝛼
´ < 𝜇< 𝑥
´ +𝑧𝛼
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Example 2

The water quality of the Marilao-Meycauyan-Obando

River System (MMORS) was tested for heavy metal
contamination. The average heavy metal concentration
from a sample of 49 different locations is 3 grams per
milliliter with a standard deviation of 0.5.

Construct the 95% and 99% confidence intervals for the

mean heavy metal concentration.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Margin of Error

which is also known as Maximum Error

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
  𝜎 𝜎
´𝑥 − 𝑧 𝛼 < 𝜇< 𝑥
´ +𝑧𝛼
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛

Point Estimate Margin of Error

 Point Estimate Margin of Error < < Point Estimate + Margin of Error

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Sample size

Where is the desired margin of error

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Example 3

  We let, , and

To get the , we apply substitution,

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Students Distribution
 

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

 Interval Estimates

 The -distribution is bell-shaped, but

the two (2) end tails are thicker than
of the standard normal distribution

Source: www.statisticsmentor.com

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

 Interval Estimates
 
Properties of a -distribution

What do you
observe here?
 The -distribution is
symmetric about the
mean 0.

Source: mips.stanford.edu

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Properties of a -distribution

 The exact shape of a

-distribution depends on
the degrees of freedom
with the formula

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Properties of a -distribution

Standard Normal
𝑡-distribution
Distribution

As the degrees of freedom increase, the 𝑡-

distribution approaches standard normal
distribution.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Interval Estimates for the Population Mean:
Variance is Unknown (distribution)

 .

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Example 4
The content of seven cans of diet coke are 350, 345,
355, 340, 360, 350, and 365 milliliters. Assuming the
contents are normally distributed, calculate a 95%
confidence interval for the mean content.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Example
A random sample of size 50 is taken from a
population of Master of Quantitative
Sciences students. It is known that 15 of
them are part-time students.

What percentage of the full-time students in

the sample we can expect?
Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12
Interval Estimates
Sample Proportion

  The mean:

The variance:

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Sample proportion when is sufficiently large

  The mean:

The variance:

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Interval Estimates for the Population Proportion

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Example

Proctor and Gamble (P&G) conducted a market

research survey on consumer preference of laundry
soap in Metro Manila. The survey showed that 138 out
of 300 persons preferred their laundry powder brand
Tide.

Determine a 99% confidence interval for the proportion

of consumers in Metro Manila that prefer Tide.

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

 Interval Estimates
 
Estimating the difference between Two
(2) Proportions (Distribution)

)]
^𝑝1 + 𝑞 ^ 2+ 𝑞^ 2
𝑝 ^𝑝1+ 𝑞 ^𝑝2 + 𝑞^ 2
𝑝1− ^
^ 𝑝 2) − 𝑧 𝛼
2 √( 𝑛1
^1
)(+
𝑛2 )< 𝑝1 − 𝑝 2 < ( ^
𝑝1− ^
𝑝 2) + 𝑧 𝛼
2 √( 𝑛1
^1
)(
+
𝑛2

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
Two Possible Estimates of Population
Variance
 Sample variance

 Average squared deviation (MSD)

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates
 
Interval Estimates for the Population
Variance (Distribution)

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12

Interval Estimates

distribution
  Distribution
 

Allows you to answer the Allows you to test whether

question: there is a relationship
Are these two (2) groups between two (2) variables.
statistically different from BUT, it does not tell you the
each other? direction or the size of the
relationship.
.
Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12
 eLMS Activities

Session 30 - Random Numbers with

Computed Mean
Session 33 - Random Numbers with
Computed Proportion
Session 36 - Random Numbers with
Computed Variance

Property of STI SH1923 Weeks 10 - 12