21/09/2020

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to
demonstrate the following:

- Examine the different international trends and issues in global

population
- Explain the theory of demographic transition and its effects to
global population
- Synthesize the concept globalization in relation to demography and
population

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Birth

Vital Signs Death

Demography

Size Marriage

Population Density

Distribution

Income

Global Population Trend and Issues

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Trends Issues

- Developed countries: support elders

- Fast and most populous countries
- Less developed countries: pop boom
- Children per woman (2.4 world ave.) - Housing
- Life expectancy (2x or even 3x) - Education
- Food
- Ageing
- Working class: more jobs & infra
- Shrinking age
- Low birth
- High Mortality
- Massive Migration

GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

POP >65
LIFE POP GROWTH POP < 15
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE POP SIZE (% of Total
EXPECTANCY RATE (% of Total
(Births per Woman) (Billions) Pop)
(Years at Birth) (% Year) Pop)

1700 27 6.0 .68 0.50 36 4

1800 27 6.0 .98 0.51 36 4

1900 30 5.2 1.65 0.56 35 4

1950 47 5.0 2.52 1.80 34 5

2000 65 2.7 6.07 1.22 40 7

2050 74 2.0 8.92 0.33 20 16

2100 81 2.0 9.46 0.04 18 21

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The Theory of Demographic Transition

Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth

PRE-TRANSITION
Life was short (25-35 years).

Births were many (4-5 per woman).

Growth was slow (.03 %/year).

Marriage age was late (25 years).

Population was young (680 Million).

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PRE-TRANSITION
Thomas Maltus – 1798 – Essay

Slow population was no accident.

Population- equilibrium –slow growing economy

Faster population growth depressed wages – causing the

mortality to rise due to famine, war, disease. (Positive Check)

Depressed wages also caused postponement of marriage,

resulting in prostitution and other vices including
contraception. (Preventive Check)

The Theory of Demographic Transition

Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth

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MORTALITY DECLINES
Began in Europe 1800, elsewhere 1900 accelerated post WWII

Driven by improvements in public health, hygiene, improvements in

nutrition

Famine mortality declines due to improved food storage and transport

Mortality declines in high income countries continued due to improved

medicine addressing chronic and degenerative diseases

Developing countries: historically rapid increases in life expectancy

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FERTILITY DECLINES

Economic models point to factors that increase the opportunity

cost of children and reduce their benefits especially with women

Reductions in benefits of children from external sources or

government reduce demand further

Effect of contraceptive use

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Mortality Declines, Fertility Declines, Population Growth

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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Mortality declines leads to high young age dependency ratios

53

64

61

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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Fertility declines leads to lower young age dependency

53

64

61

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AGE DISTRIBUTION
Increasing longevity leads to increasing young age dependency

53

64

61

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IMPLICATIONS
o Increased global population

o Fewer children leads to more opportunities for other activities,

higher quality of children

o Mortality decline may lead to longer disabled years or longer

disability free years

o Fiscal implications for aging populations lead to an increasing

burden on the young or the taxpayer

o Aging population problems addressable

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Does demography population affect globalization?

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POLITICAL GLOBALIZATION
Increased population will lead to:

United Nations addressing the problems of the 21st century

Nation-state entering into bilateral and multilateral agreements on

labor relations – sending of OFW to the Middle East

Regional political organizations (EU, ASEAN, etc) facing the issues and
concerns of their community

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ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION
Having fewer children gives the women and/or parents to buy what they
needs and sometimes, wants.

Mortality decline leads to the demand for better healthcare services which
might be brought about by global corporations.

Ageing and shrinking population lead to higher taxes imposed by imported

and exported products.

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CULTURAL GLOBALIZATION
Increased population lead to

Cultural Diversity (differentialism, convergence and hybridity)

Media and communication infrastructure demand

More membership in secularized religious practices and belies (more

activities for the attainment of global peace)

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GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
At the end of this lesson, the students are expected to
demonstrate the following:

- Examine the different international trends and issues in global

population
- Explain of the theory of demographic transition and its effects to
global population
- Synthesize the concept globalization in relation to demography and
population

22

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