9/28/21, 6:15 PM Climate change: Antarctic seal numbers tied to global temperature | New Scientist

Antarctic seal numbers rose and fell with climate

over 50,000 years

LIFE
28 September 2021
By Joshua Rapp Learn

Mother and baby Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazelle) on the beach at Fortuna Bay, South Georgia, Antarctica
Peter Barritt / Alamy Stock Photo

The Antarctic fur seal population has grown and shrunk over the past 50,000 years as the
climate has changed, a genetic analysis suggests – and the finding could help us predict
where the marine predators will choose to live as the climate continues to warm.

Today, Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) appear loyal to the same islands,
particularly those of South Georgia in the south Atlantic Ocean. During the annual
breeding season, some return to within a few metres of the same spot on the rocky shore
year after year.

Alison Cleary at the British Antarctic Survey examined the fur seals’ history while at
the University of Agder in Norway. With her colleagues, she sequenced DNA samples from
four existing populations on South Georgia, Bouvet Island and the South Shetlands in the
south Atlantic and on the Kerguelen Islands in the southern Indian Ocean. They paid
special attention to DNA variation, as larger populations carry more genetic diversity.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2291582-antarctic-seal-numbers-rose-and-fell-with-climate-over-50000-years/ 1/2
9/28/21, 6:15 PM Climate change: Antarctic seal numbers tied to global temperature | New Scientist

They then used software that analyses genetic data and estimates how an animal species’
population size has changed through time, and when two or more distinct populations
today were last part of a single larger population.

Read more: Life found beneath Antarctic ice sheet ‘shouldn’t be there’

They found that despite seals’ tendency not to move to new areas, populations have grown
and shrunk over longer periods of time. For example, before the last glacial maximum,
which occurred 26,000 to 13,300 years ago, the seals seemed to exist as one global genetic
population in which any two animals could interbreed. But then, seal numbers shrank and
the population in the southern Indian Ocean became genetically isolated and distinct from
the others.

“You see that the populations decline when the ice increases, then you see them moving
out to new colonies as the ice decreases again,” says Cleary.

Cleary says the seals are likely to need ice-free areas to raise pups – populations today are
all in such areas. During the last glacial maximum, populations probably shrank due to a
shortage of ice-free land. “Presumably they are losing habitat or losing access to prey,”
says Cleary.

At the same time, the fur seals feed on species of fish and krill that typically depend on sea
ice for their survival, so the marine mammals can’t stray too far from frozen water.

Cleary says that tracking the way Antarctic fur seal populations have moved around in the
past could help conservationists predict where they might move under future climate
change scenarios, and enable them to set aside protected areas.
Journal reference: Ecology and Evolution, DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8104

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