ADM 2623

Chapter 5 Extra Problems

1. An insurance company has collected the following data on the gender and marital status of 300 cus-
tomers:
single Married divorced
Male 25 125 30
Female 50 50 20

Suppose that a customer is selected at random: Find the probability that the customer selected is

(a) not single

(b) married given that the customer is male

(c) female or divorced

(d) are gender an marital status mutually exclusive?. Explain using probabilities (Hint: Use a suitable
rule of probability).

2. Urn A contains 4 red and 3 black balls, whereas urn B contains 3 red and 6 black balls. (For the following
questions, it helps if you: 1. define the relevant events, 2. state the question in probability notation and
find it using probability rules.)

(a) If three balls are drawn from urn B, what is the probability that the third ball will be black given
that the first two balls are red?

(b) If five balls are drawn from urn B, What is the probability that two of them will be red and 3 of
them will be black?

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(c) If one ball is drawn from urn A, what is the probability that it will be red?

(d) If one ball is drawn from urn B, what is the probability that it will be red?

(e) If one ball is drawn from urn A, and one ball is drawn from urn B, what is the probability that both
balls will be red?

(f) If one ball is drawn from urn A, what is the probability that it will be black?

(g) If one ball is drawn from urn B, what is the probability that it will be black?

(h) If one ball is drawn from urn A, and one ball is drawn from urn B, what is the probability that both
balls will be black?

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 (i) If one ball is drawn from urn A, and one ball is drawn from urn B, what is the probability that both
balls will be of the same color? (Hint: use the answers to previous questions)

3. At a shoe factory, it is known from past experience that the probability is 0.82 that a worker who has
attended the factory’s training program will meet the production quota, and that the corresponding prob-
ability is 0.53 for a worker who has not attended the factory’s training program. If 60% of the workers
attend the factory’s training program, what is the probability that a worker who meets the production
quota will have attended the training program?
Below, CLEARLY state the events, probabilities, and formulas used to reach your answer. (Hint: it helps
if you: 1. define the relevant events, 2. use these events to list the probabilities given in the problem, 3.
state the question in probability notation and find it using probability rules.)

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4. A forest contains 20 elk, of which 5 are captured, tagged, and then released. A certain time later 4 of the
20 elk are captured. What is the probability that 2 of these 4 have been tagged? What assumptions are
you making?

5. A wine producer has designed a new and distinctive bottle in the hope of increasing sales. The manager
views the probability of success as 0.5 but also orders a survey of costumers. The manager knows that
when costumers are enthusiastic and sales are about to rise, the type of survey about to be taken will so
indicate 90 percent of the time but in 10 percent of the cases, the survey will say the opposite. When
costumers are unimpressed and sales prospects look dim, the survey will so indicate 60 percent of the
time, but in 40 percent of the cases, it will say the opposite. The survey is taken and shows great costumer
enthusiasm about the bottle. What is the manager’s posterior probability of success?