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Grade 11 CAPS
Mathematics
Series
Outcomes for this Topic
In this topic we will :
Revision
of Grade 10 Grade11 CAPS
Mathematics
Probability Series
Outcomes for Unit 1
In this unit we will revise :
• Terminology related to probability.
• Theoretical probability.
• Complementary events.
What is Probability?
• Probability is the mathematics of chance that enables us to predict
the likelihood of uncertain occurrences and tells us the relative frequency
with which we expect an event to occur.
Examples :
1. The probability that it will rain in PE today is 0,3 30%.
70
2. The probability of contracting the flu virus is 70%.
100
1
3. The probability of winning the Lotto is 0, 000 007%.
13 983 816
Probability can be reported as a fraction, decimal, percentage or ratio.
The greater the probability, the more likely the event is to occur.
Conversely, the smaller the probability, the less likely the event
is to occur. In the examples there is a strong probability that you
may contract the virus, a reasonable chance of rain in PE today,
but almost no chance of you winning the Lotto.
Terminology linked to probability
• To study probability in a mathematically precise way, we need special
terminology and notation.
Note :
5;3 & 3;5
Are different outcomes
Many more such pairs!
Experiment: Draw a card from a standard pack of cards
See illustration of :
Drawing a face card,
as one of these events.
n E1 1
P getting heads P 1
E 50%
nS 2
n E2 1
P getting tails P E2 50%
nS 2
P getting either heads or tails P E n E3 2 1 100%
3
nS 2
n E4 0
P getting neither heads nor tails P E4 0 0%
n 2
S
Theoretical Probability from rolling a single die experiment
S 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6 n S 6
n S 52
Sample
Events Number of Events
Space
S n S
1 20 2
S a , a n S
1 1 2 21 2
S a; b , a , b , a; b n S
1 2 1 4 22 2
a , b , c
S a; b; c
n S
1 3 3 1 8 23 2
a; b , a; c , b; c
a; b; c
a , b , c , d
S a; b; c; d a; b , a; c , a; d , b; c , b; d , c; d
n S
1 4 6 4 1 16 2
a; b; c , a; b; d , a; c; d , b; c; d
S
Tutorial 1: Theoretical Probabilities
Roll a pair six-sided dice and record, respectively, the number
and number of dots showing on the top faces of the die after each trial.
P A
n A
nS
6
36
1
6
Tutorial 1: Problem 2: Suggested Solution
P C
n C
nS
11
36
Venn diagram representation of events and sample space
A B n A B 0
Dependent and
Grade11 CAPS
Independent Mathematics
Events Series
Outcomes for Unit 2
In this Unit we will focus on :
• Identification of independent and dependent events.
• Calculate the probability of dependent and independent events.
P A B
• Conditional Probability Formula : P B A
P A
• Conditional Probability formula for two independent events :
P A B P A P B
P B A P B
P A P A
Independent Events and Product Rule
Two events are said to be independent if the result of the second
event is not affected by the result of the first event.
Example 1 : A white ball, red ball and yellow ball are placed in a box.
In an experiment a ball is randomly drawn, its color recorded
and it is returned to the box. A second ball is drawn and its
color recorded. What are the probability of drawing a red ball
and then a white ball?
Use a contingency table : If A and B are independent events
then P A and B P A B P A P B
First
n S 3 3 9 Draw
W R Y
3 1
A red first RW ; RR; RY P A
WW RW YW
WR RR YR 9 3
3 1
WY RY YY B white second WW ; RW ; YW P B
9 3
1
C first red then white RW P C P C P A P B
9
Independent Events another example
Example 2 : A packet contains 3 red paperclips, 4 green paperclips
and 5 blue paperclips. One paperclip is taken from the packet, the
color recorded and then placed back in packet. Another paperclip
is taken from the packet and the color recorded.What is the probability
that the first paperclip is red and the second paperclip is blue?
Solution : Because the first paper clip is replaced, the sample space
of 12 paperclips does not change from the first to the second event.
3 5 15 5
P red then blue
12 12 144 48
Probability for Dependent Events : Contingency Table and Rule
Example 3 : A bag contains three marbles : one red, one blue and one green.
If we draw two marbles from the bag, one after the other, without replacing
the first one drawn, what is the probability that the first marble is red and the
second green?
Solve using Contigency Table
If a result of one event is affected by the
First
result of another event the events are Draw
R B G
said to be dependent.
RR BR GR
Drawing two marbles implies that sample space is
RB BB GB
Condition, first red, changes sample space A first must be red RR; RB; RG
to RR; RB; RG. A B RG B second must be green RG; BG; GG
1
P first red then green P B A
1 P A B
P B A .
9 1 9 1
Then
3 P A 3 9 3 3
Not Examinable in CAPS 9
Probability of Dependent Events : Using Tree Diagrams
P A B
P B A P getting two tails once a head occured
P A
P B A
1 4 1 8 1
Not Examinable in CAPS
8 8 8 4 4
Dependent Events : Using Venn Diagram
Example 4 : When tossing three fair coins, what is the probability of
getting two tails given that the first coin came up heads?
Tossing three coins implies that sample space is :
Not Examinable in CAPS
S HHH ; HHT ; HTH ; HTT ; THH ; THT ; TTH ; TTT .
Let A be the event of getting exactly two tails :
A HTT ; THT ; TTH .
Let B be the event of getting head with first coin :
B HHH ; HHT ; HTH ; HTT
P A B
1
A B HTT 4
6
n S 14 P A 14 P A B 2 7 2
P A B
n A 6 7 P B 14 14 7
P B
n B 7 14
n A B 2 Condition
2
P A B 14
B shaded
P A B
P B A
2 6 2 Condition
P A 14 14 6 A shaded
Tutorial 3: Dependent and Independent Events
A golfer can select any of four makes of golf balls from his bag.
PAUSE
• Do Tutorial 3
• Then View Solutions
We will lable the four balls as T , M , F and P.
The golfer selects randomly two balls from his bag.
What will be the probability in the following cases:
1. Two balls are drawn with replacement
and the first must be P and the second T .
Use Contingency Table and Tree Diagram.
2. Two balls are drawn without replacement
and the first must be P and the second T .
Use Venn Diagram and Conditional Formula.
Tutorial 3: Problem 1: Solution using a Contingency Table
A golfer selects two golf balls from his bag with replacement.
TM MM FM PM
TF MF FF PF
TP MP FP PP
P B A
1
Condition of Pinacle first limits us to the set A (shaded). 4
Only one of these four outcomes contains a Titleist as a second ball.
Not Examinable in CAPS
Tutorial 3: Problem 2: Conditional Probability Formula
A golfer selects two golf balls from his bag without replacement.
2. What is probability of
firstly P and secondly T ?
Solving
Probability Grade11 CAPS
Mathematics
Problems Series
using
Venn
Diagrams
Outcomes for Unit 3
In this unit we will :
7.3.2 2 12 5 x 66 x 75 x 3 2 103
165 x 103 x 62 x 62
Representation using a VENN DIAGRAM
7.3.3 Calculate the probability that a learner:
a Eats only chicken and fish, and no vegetables.
b Eats any TWO of the given food choices.
Solution:
4
7.3.3 a 0, 0388
103
4 12 13 29
7.3.3 b or 0, 2816 or 28,16%
103 103 103 103
Determine Probability using Venn Diagrams if A B
1. Consider the example where: S 1;2;3;4;5;6 n S 6
S outcomes when rolling a single die and the events
A getting even number 2;4;6 and
nE
B getting a factor of 6 1;2;3;6 PE
nS
Use appropriate Venn Diagram to determine:
1. P A 3
P A and P B
4
6 6
2. P B A 2;4;6 B 1;2;3;6
5 2
3. P A B P A B and P A B A 1;3;5 B 4;5
6 6
4. P A B A B 1;2;3;4;6
3 2
5. P A P not A P A P A and P B
A B 2;6
6 6
6. P B P not B P B
7. P A B P A B
P A B
P A B 4
6
A B 1;3;4;5
A B 1;3;4;5
8 P A B P A only A B 4
1 2
9 P A B P B only
P A B and P A B A B 1;3
6 6
Determine Probability using Venn Diagrams if A B
Use the Venn Diagram to determine the probabilities of the given events:
A 2;4;6 n A 3 S 1;2;3;4;5;6 n S 6 n A B 5
P A B
B 3;5 n B 2 nS 6
A B 2;3;4;5;6 n A B 5 n A 3
n A P A
A B n A B 0 P A
3
nS 6
nS
6
A 1;3;5 n A 3 n B 2
P B
A B S n A B 6P A B P S
nS
1 nS 6
nS
n A B 0
3 2 0 5
P A P B P A B P A B
P A B
6 6 6 6 nS 6
Determine Probabilty using Venn Diagrams if A B
Given:
S outcomes when rolling a single die and the events
A getting an even number 2;4;6 and
B getting a number 1 2;3;4;5;6
Use the Venn Diagrams to determine the probabilities of the given events:
Assume that:
n S n A B C 370 n A B C x
n A B C 50
n B A C 70
n A B C 60
n A B C 40
n A B C 50
n A B C 80 60 40 50 50 70 80 x 370
350 x 370
x 20
20 educators were A, B and C educators.
Using Venn Diagrams to solve a Probability Problem
n A B C 60 6
8. P Educator teaches A only
nS 370 37
Challenge : Formulate and solve a probability problem linked
to each of the seven areas in the Venn Diagram.
Tutorial 4: Using Venn Diagrams to solve Probability Problems
• Do Tutorial 4
• Then View Solutions
1. Construct an appropriate Venn Diagram.
2. Symbolize given information.
3. Place the appropriate cardinal number in each of the eight regions.
4. Determine how many read newspaper C only?
5. Determine the probability represented by each of the eight regions.
Tutorial 4: Problems 1 and 2: Suggested Solutions
In a survey 100 people were questioned to find out how many
read the newspapers A, B and C. The survey revealed that 10
did not read any of the three newspapers; 50 read A; 44 read B;
20 read A and B; 9 read A and C ; 6 read B and C and 5 read all
three papers.
n S 100
1. Construct an appropriate Venn Diagram.
2. Symbolize given information.
n A B C 10
n A 50
n B 44
n A B 20
n A C 9
n B C 6
n A B C 5
Tutorial 4: Problems 3 and 4: Suggested Solutions
n A 50
n B 44
n A B 20
15 n A C 9
26
23 n B C 6
5 n A B C 5
4 1
26 4 5 15 23 1 x 10 100
x
10 84 x 100 x 16
16 read C only.
Tutorial 4: Problem 5: Suggested Solution
REMEMBER!
• Consult text-books and past papers and memos for
additional examples.
• Attempt as many as possible other similar examples
on your own.
• Compare your methods with those that were
discussed in these Topic slides.
• Repeat this procedure until you are confident.