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    Thùy Dung
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    A bakery recorded sales data for three products over 15 days. To predict orders for the next day, naive methods were used: 1) For muffins, the forecast was the last value of 33 as the data was stable. 2) For buns, the trend was increasing so the forecast was the last value of 33 plus the average increase of 2, which is 35. 3) For cupcakes, the data was seasonal with peaks every 5 days, so the forecast was the next peak value of 47. Using sales data implies knowing demand, as demand and sales are equal.

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    A bakery recorded sales data for three products over 15 days. To predict orders for the next day, naive methods were used: 1) For muffins, the forecast was the last value of 33 as the data was stable. 2) For buns, the trend was increasing so the forecast was the last value of 33 plus the average increase of 2, which is 35. 3) For cupcakes, the data was seasonal with peaks every 5 days, so the forecast was the next peak value of 47. Using sales data implies knowing demand, as demand and sales are equal.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    10 views2 pages

    Tut 3

    Uploaded by

    Thùy Dung
    A bakery recorded sales data for three products over 15 days. To predict orders for the next day, naive methods were used: 1) For muffins, the forecast was the last value of 33 as the data was stable. 2) For buns, the trend was increasing so the forecast was the last value of 33 plus the average increase of 2, which is 35. 3) For cupcakes, the data was seasonal with peaks every 5 days, so the forecast was the next peak value of 47. Using sales data implies knowing demand, as demand and sales are equal.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

    A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:

    a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.

    Hint: Plot each data set.

    Blueberry Muffins
    40

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

    Blueberry Muffins

    For Blueberry Muffins, it can be seen that the values are relatively close, which indicates that the series
    is stable, so the next forecast would be the last value that is 33
    Cinamon Buns
    35

    30

    25

    20

    15

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

    Cinamon Buns

    In terms of Cinnamon Buns, in general it tends to increase over time, so we can assume that this is the
    trend. The change from previous value was 33-31=2, so the next sale would be 33+2=35

    Cupcakes
    60

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

    Cupcakes

    The last one-sales in cupcakes have shown that every five-day period, we had a peak, so the series is
    seasonal. Based on that, we can predict sales for the next time will also be a peak and it equals to 47

    b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

    The use of sales data instead of demand implies that when we look at sales, we can also know the
    demand. Demand and sales are equal.

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