Abbey Nord

TB Data Project

Part 1:

A. I used the systematic sampling method, so I chose every seventh member from the list
until I reached 10 members that I had selected.
a. Argentina
b. Bangladesh
c. Bolivia
d. Burundi
e. Chile
f. Côte d’Ivoire
g. Denmark
h. Equatorial Guinea
i. France
j. Grenada

B.

1. Those that were 65 and older had the most cases. There are approximately 1205 total
females so in order to find the relative frequency of the group with the most cases you
would take the number of those 65 and older, which is 260 and divide it by 1205. The
answer is 0.22.
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2. For males the age group with the least notified cases were those between 0-4, which
appears to be around 20. You are going to do the same thing as you did with the females,
but this time the estimated total amount is 2210, so 20/2210 equals 0.0090.
3. If there were 5000 total then I estimate there would be 380 females in the 65 and older
age group and 29 males in their age group. I found this by taking my estimates and their
percentages of the total then converting it to 5000 total rather than my total.

C.
a. Bolivia
i. 106 (69-153)
ii. 81% success & 7,119 cohort size
b. Bangladesh
i. 221 (161-291)
ii. 94% success & 267,143 cohort size
c. Argentina
i. 29 (25-34)
ii. 54% success & 10,514 cohort size
d. Burundi
i. 107 (69-153)
ii. 94% success & 7,119 cohort size
e. Chile
i. 18 (15-20)
ii. 73% success & 2,864 cohort size
f. Cote d’Ivoire
i. 137 (88-197)
ii. 84% success & 20,889 cohort size
g. Denmark
i. 5 (4.3-5.8)
ii. 16% success & 266 cohort size
h. Equatorial Guinea
i. 181 (159-205)
ii. 65% success & 1,482 cohort size
i. France
i. 8.7 (7.6-9.8)
ii. 11% success & 4,715 cohort size
j. Grenada
i. 3.1 (2.6-3.6)
ii. 50% success & 2 cohort size
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D.

The p-value would be 0.84, so I would fail to reject the null hypothesis since the p-value is
greater than 0.05.
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Part 2:

Population: 590

Sample size: 396

Standard Deviation: 0.66

A. Conditions:
a. It was randomly selected because I randomly selected the countries myself in Part
1 of this project.
b. This is independent
c. Np and n 1-p are both greater than 10.
i. Np = 0.66*396 = 261.35
ii. N 1-p = 396 (1-0.66) = 134.64

B. The confidence interval is (0.615, 0.7082)

d. To solve this I used geogebra. To find the number of successes I did (0.66*396).
N is just the sample size. You can also take the SE, which is 0.0238, and subtract
p as well as add p to get the answer.

C. No, the success rate for the first one was 83%, which seems a bit high to say that is the norm.
The confidence interval ranges to 66%, so it does not fit into it.

D. Condition 1: It was randomly selected

Condition 2: The sample is less than 5% of the population as done above.
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Condition 3: The number of successes is 0.66*396 = 261.36. The number of failures is 396
(1-0.85) = 59.4. They are both greater than 10 so this condition is met.
E.
Ho: p = 0.85
Ha: p < 0. 85

Test Statistic: -10.4987

P-Value: 0
Level of Significance: 0.01

Since the p-value is less than the alpha we can reject the null hypothesis, so in conclusion
the true success proportion of successful TB treatments is less than 85.

F.
In part 1 the answer comes out to be 85 successes, but part 2 concludes it is actually less
than 85. They are similar in the outcomes, but in the end part 2 seems more accurate. The
interval is slightly lower in this part than compared to part 1, which I think would be reliable
because there is more data. Part 1 is just one country whereas the data in this part has been all 10
countries. There was only a sample size of 100 in the first one compared to a sample size of 396
in this section. There is simply just more evidence in this part than the previous one to support
the conclusion.
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Part 3:

A:

Country Total TB Incidence

Cook Islands 13

Democratic Republic 513

Korea

Egypt 12

Fiji 66

Ghana 144

Haiti 170

Iraq 41

Kazakhstan 68

Lebanon 13

Malawi 146
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B:

Shape -

This is a unimodal graph that is also right-skewed.

Center:

Mean - 118.6

X = ∑ 𝑥/n

Median - 67

Mode - 13

Midrange - 262.5
(Max + Min) / 2
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Variance:

Variance - 22,733.82

- The variance is s^2

C.

There is one outlier, which is 513, because the lower fence is -188 while the upper fence is 347.
513 is the only data point that falls outside of this range.

𝐿𝐹 = 13 − 1. 5(134) = − 188
𝑈𝐹 = 146 + 1. 5(134) = 347

D.

Conditions:
1. The sample comes from a random sample, which was chosen in part 1.
2. The sample observations are independent.
a. 0.05N = 7864 and n = 10, so 𝑛 ≤ 0. 05𝑁
3. The sample size is above 30
a. N = 157,280

E.

Confidence Interval: (10.7403, 226.4597)

We are 95% confident that the interval between 10.7403 and 226.4597 contains the average
number of TB incidences.
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D.

Hypothesis Test:

Ho: 132
Ha ≠ 132

Level of significance: 0.05

T-score: -0.281
P-Value: 0.785

Based on the data, since the p-value is greater than the alpha (level of significance), we fail to
reject the null hypothesis, so we cannot say the global incidence rate is different than 132.
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Part 4:

A.

Treatment Success/Failure

Country Success Failure TOTAL

Argentina 54 46 100

Banglades 94 6 100
h

Bolivia 81 19 100

Member of Burundi 94 6 100

WHO

Chile 72 28 100

Cote 84 16 100
d’Ivoire

Denmark 16 84 100

Equatorial 65 35 100
Guinea

France 11 89 100

Grenada 50 50 100

TOTAL 621 379 1000

B.
1. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 1st or 3rd member of WHO in
your table
a. 200 ÷ 1000 = 0.2
2. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 3rd member of WHO in your
table or is a failure
a. (100 ÷ 1000) + (379 ÷ 1000) = 0. 479 − (19 ÷ 1000) = 0.46
3. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 3rd member of WHO in your
table and is a failure
a. (100 ÷ 1000) × (19 ÷ 1000) = 0.0019
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4. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 3rd member of WHO in your
table, given it is a failure
a. 19 ÷ 379 = 0.05
5. The probability that three randomly selected cases (without replacement) are all
successes from the 5th member of WHO in your table
a. (72 ÷ 621) × (71 ÷ 620) × (70 ÷ 619) = 0. 1159 × 0. 1145 × 0. 1131 =

0.0015

C.

We are 95% confident that between the interval of -0.2199 and -0.0401 contains the number of
TB success rates.

D.

Ho: x = 81
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Ha: x ≠ 81

Test Statistic: -2.7795

P-Value: 0.0054

Level of Significance: 0.05

Since the p-value is less than the level of significance we can reject the null hypothesis, so in
conclusion the number of successes is different than 81.