Austin Taylor Math 1040 TB Project

o A)
How I chose the 10 Countries for the study
To find my 10 Countries used for this study I used a simple random sampling method. With the 10
random numbers I received I then found their matching country by going down the list.

Countries Used- 1: Afghanistan, 13: Bahrain, 18: Belize, 47: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 95:
Latvia, 110: Mauritius, 133: Panama, 168: Sweden, 170: Syrian Arab Republic, 192: Yemen

o B)
The Country I chose to investigate
further was the Syrian Arab
Republic

1. For Females the age group that has

the most noted cases in 25–34-year-
olds. There are 1,260 Total Females.
The relative frequency for the age
group would be 260/1260 or 0.21.

2. For Males the age group that has the

most noted cases in 25–34-year-olds.
There are 1,600 Total Males. The relative frequency for the age group would be 360/1600 or
0.23.

3. If there were 5,000 Females, we could expect there would be 1,050 in the age group 25-34.
If there were 5,000 Males, we could expect there would be 1,150 in the age group 25-34

o C)
These are the Estimates of TB burden for the Countries chosen ion the study
Afghanistan= 189, Bahrain= 12, Belize= 27, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea= 513,
Lebanon= 13, Mauritius= 12, Panama= 37, Sweden= 5.5, Syrian Arab Republic= 19, Yemen= 48

Treatment success rate and cohort size for the chosen countries
Afghanistan= 91%, Bahrain= 47%, Belize= 67%, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea= 83%,
Lebanon=80%, Mauritius= 81%, Panama= 82%, Sweden= 78%,Syrian Arab Republic= 89%,
Yemen= 88%
 o D)

Simulation of Success of Treatment for Afghanistan

Due to the test ran, I fail
to reject the Null
Hypothesis. Because
there is not statistically
significant evidence to
reject the Null
Hypothesis.

Austin Taylor

TB Project Pt. 2

A) The two counties that I chose are Belize and Sweden. Checking the conditions for Belize, we
selected it randomly so that condition is met. Using the equation (n ≤ 0.05N) we find that with
my cohort size of 99 we would get 1980≤N. Where N is the population of the entire world. This
condition is also met. And finally the last condition, we use the equations np̂ ≥10 and n(1-
p̂ )≥10. With the appropriate numbers in place the equations we must solve is 99(.67) ≥10 and
99(1-.67) ≥10. These work out to 66.3≥10 and 32.67≥10. Both are true so this condition is met.
Moving on to Sweden, this country was also chosen randomly therefor that condition is met.
Using the equation (n ≤ 0.05N) we find that with my cohort size of 463 we would get 9260≤N.
This is higher than Belize but still not close to the total population of Earth, so this is also true.
The last condition, we use the equations np̂ ≥10 and n(1-p̂ )≥10. With the appropriate numbers in
place the equations we must solve is 463(.78) ≥10 and 463(1-.78) ≥10. These work out to be
361.14≥10 and 101.86≥10. Both statements are true, so the condition is met.
B) Belize Sweden

C) For both of my countries 85% is an unreasonable value. Belize is only 67% and Sweden is closer
but still only 78%.
D) Afghanistan was the country that was in my original project. The conditions are met for it to be
normal. It was randomly selected. Its cohort size of 48,420 is less than 5% of the earth’s
population. The last condition we would solve is 48420(.91)≥10 and 48420(1-.91) )≥10. Both of
which are greater than 10.
E) Ho: p=0.85
Ha: p≠0.85
 F) I would reject the Ho. With the p value so low, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that 85%
is not the success rate for the country of Afghanistan. The graph that I created in part one also
shows that the country of Afghanistan is not centered on the world average. They are above the
world average in treatment successes for TB.

Austin Taylor
TB Project pt.3
A. Country Total TB Incidence
Afghanistan 193
Bahrain 13
Belize 23
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 523
Lebanon 13
Mauritius 12
Panama 32
Sweden 3.6
Syrian Arab Republic 19
Yemen 49

Histogram of TB Incidence
Frequency
B. After computing the histogram we can see that the graph shape is defiantly skewed to the
right.
C. There are outliers in the set. Using the lower fence 𝐿𝐹 = 13 − 1.5(36) and upper fence
𝑈𝐹 = 49 + 1.5(36) equations we find the lower fence at -41 and the upper fence at 103.

D. Checking conditions. 1. Random. The countries were chosen at random. 2. Independent. The
sample sizes are less than 5% of the population. 3. We do not know if the populations are
normal, but the total cohort size for all 10 countries are 164,289. 164,289 is greater than 30.

E.

We are 95% confident that the Interval

(-28.2799,204.3999) contains the mean for total TB
incidences.
F. After completing the hypothesis test, we can see that our Test Statistic is -0.8544 and our P-
Value is 0.4151. If we use alpha level 0.05, our P-value is far greater. Therefor we would Fail to
reject because we do not have sufficient evidence to conclude that the global incidence rate is
132 per 100,000.
 Treatment Success/Failure
SUCCESS FAILURE TOTAL
Afghanistan 91 9 100
Member of WHO Bahrain 47 53 100
Belize 67 33 100
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 83 17 100
Lebanon 80 20 100
Mauritius 81 19 100
Panama 82 18 100
Sweden 78 22 100
Syrian Arab Republic 89 11 100
Yemen 88 12 100
TOTAL 786 214 1000

• The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 1st or 3rd member of WHO in your
table is 𝟐𝟎𝟎 ÷ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐
• The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 3rd member of WHO in your table or
is a failure is 𝟏𝟎𝟎 + 𝟐𝟏𝟒 − 𝟑𝟑 ÷ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟏
• The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 3rd member of WHO in your table
and is a failure is 𝟑𝟑 ÷ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟑
• The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 5th member of WHO in your table,
given it is a failure is 𝟐𝟎 ÷ 𝟐𝟏𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟓
• The probability that three randomly selected cases (without replacement) are all successes from
the 5th member of WHO in your table

Conclusion: Sense “0” is not in out

confidence interval we can say that
the two different proportions for the
two countries are significantly
different from each other.
Hypotheses:

HO: p3=p5

HA: p3≠p5

Test Statistic:

-2.0829

P-Value:

0.0373

Conclusion:

I would Reject the Ho. Using an alpha

level of 0.05 the P-Value is less than
alpha.