Skittles II

A.

There are three conditions you need to prove in order to state whether the Central Limit
Theorem applies. If the conditions are met then the sampling distribution of p-hat is normal
model. The first condition is if the sample is random. The sample is randomly collected as each
bag of were placed into the bags using a machine in an outside random factory. This would
make it an inanimate machine distributing the amount of skittles, based on weight not color.

The second condition is met when the sample studied is at least 5% of the population.
For instance, we studied the color of 1944 skittles. Using the formula n=0.05N we can determine
what the minimum total population would be in order to make 1944 skittles 5%. You would need
to have 38,880 skittles total all over the world in order for 1944 skittles to be 5%. This condition
is met as there are more than 38,880 skittles in the entire world.

The last condition is whether or not the sample size is large enough to produce an
accurate representation of the complete population. You can determine this using the formula
p-hat * n> 10 and n(1-p-hat)>10. For example, 1944*0.205= 398.52. 1944(1-0.205)= 1,545.48, if
you use the sample proportion of red skittles p-hat = 398/1944 = 0.205. Both of these answers
are greater than 10 which means the sample is large enough to represent the entire population.

There is 95% confidence that the conditions have been met in order for the sample collected to
capture the true population proportion of red skittles; I believe this validated the results in step
B.

sample proportion of red skittles p-hat = 398/1944 = 0.205

Color Frequency

Red 398

Orange 398

Yellow 405

Green 359

Purple 384

TOTAL 1944

B. Using Geogebra we are able to compute confidence intervals.

There is 95% confidence that the interval 0.1868 and 0.2227 captures the true
population proportion of the amount of red skittles in the entire world.
 Skittles II

C. The proportion of skittles in my bag was 5/53 or 0.094. The confidence interval from the
sample size in part two is (0.1868, 0.2227), with my projected proportion not inside the projected
confidence level that would state that my proportion from Part 1 is not a likely value for the true
proportion of red skittles.

D. When checking the conditions for carrying out a two-sided test of whether p=0.2, the
sample is still random. The next condition being that the sample is less than 5% of the
population. The sample size has not changed from the original so this condition would still be
met. The third condition is whether or not the sample size is large enough. In this condition we
would instead calculate 1944* 0.2 = 388.8 and 1944(1-0.2) = 1555.2. With both of these
answers benign larger than or equal to 10 that would make this final condition met. This means
the Central Limit Theorem applies and the values found in part E will be valid.

E.

Ho: p=0.2

Ha: p ≠ 0.2
 Skittles II

You would fail to reject the null hypothesis as there is insufficient evidence that the proportion of
red skittles is more or less than 0.20. You would know this because p>a. Where p = 0.6019 and
a= 0.05.

F.

Part 1 results are in this image.

I drew the same conclusion in both my part 1 and part 2 simulation results. Both results
are valid, and both result in failing to reject the null hypothesis because they are both
indicative of the true population proportion. Part 2 may be more inclusive and valid as it
provides a bigger sample.