Scheduling the project

Class 3
PERT AND CPM NETWORKS
  Late 1950s
 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
 Developed by → U.S. Navy, Booz-Allen
Hamilton, and Lockeheed Aircraft
 Probabilistic (or uncertain) estimates of activity

History : duration
 Critical Path Method (CPM)

method to
 Developed by → Dupont De Nemours Inc.
 Deterministic (or certain) estimates activity
durations but included both time and cost

schedule a 
estimates to allow time/cost trade - offs to be
used
Both methods

project  employed networks to schedule and display task

sequences.
 identified a critical path of tasks that could not be
delayed without delaying the project.
 identified activities with slack(or float) that could
be some what delayed without extending the time
required to complete the project
 Activity task or set of tasks
use resources

state resulting from completion of one or more

The
activities
Event consume no resources or time
predecessor activities must be completed

Language
of Milestones events that mark significant progress

PERT/CPM
diagram of nodes and arcs

Network used to illustrate technological

relationships

series of connected activities between

Path two events
The Language of PERT/CPM
continue….

 Critical Path
 set of activities on a path that if delayed will delay completion of project

 Critical Time
 time required to complete all activities on the critical path
Building the Network

Activity - on - Arrow (AOA) epics the activities as arrows and events as nodes.

Network usually associated with PERT.

Activity - on – Network showing each task as a node and linking the nodes
with arrows that show their technological relationship
(AON )Network usually associated with CPM
AoN
A Sample Set of Project Activities and
Precedence (dependency)
Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e
 Stage 1 of a Sample AON Network

Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

Because tasks a and b have no predecessors, they follow the Start

node
 Stage 2 of a Sample AON Network

Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

• task c has a as a predecessor

• tasks d and e have b as their common predecessor
 Task Predecessor
a --

A Complete Sample AON Network b

c
--
a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

Completed, and as in the case of the AON network this means that all
tasks with no successors should go to a node labelled Finish.
Example
Sketch the AoN of the above activity
Answer
AoA
 Stage 1 of a Sample AOA Network

Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

• Beginning the same way, we create a Start node from which flow all activities that have no
predecessors, in this case a and b.
• The completion of these activities results in events (nodes, often drawn as circles) numbered 1and 2
Stage 2 of a Sample AOA Network
Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

• task a precedes task c,

• and that task b precedes both tasks d and e.
• additions with event nodes 3, 4, and 5, as
indicated
 A Completed Sample AOA Network

Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

• Task f has two predecessors, c and d.

• This means that tasks c and d actually finish at the same node (or event) and that f cannot
start until this event is achieved, that is, until both c and d are completed. (restructure from
previous network!!)
• Task g is preceded by e.
• all tasks with no successors should go to a node labelled Finish
 A Completed Sample AOA Network
Showing the Use of a Dummy Task f

• We can handle f in a simpler though equivalent way f

by connecting the nodes following c and d with an g
arrow drawn with a dashed line
• This is called a dummy activity and merely shows a
technological linkage.
• dummy tasks are used in situations where two
activities have the same starting and finishing nodes or
where a single activity connects to two or more
nodes. g
AoA vs AoN
AoA vs AoN
AoA vs AoN
AoA vs AoN
Example
AoA
Q: Sketch the AoA of the above activity
Answer
 AoN VS AoA

 use AON networks throughout course because they are used by most of the popular project
management software.
 An important advantage of AON notation is that the networks are easy to draw.
 AOA networks, particularly when they have more than 15 or 20 activities, are difficult to draw
by hand.
 With modern software this is not a serious problem, but the software that generates AOA
networks is quite expensive.
 AON networks often do not show events but it is simple enough to add them by showing the
event (usually a milestone) exactly as if it were an activity but with zero time duration and no
resources

Thus, we use AON!!!

Table 5-2 A Sample Problem for Finding the Critical Path
and Critical Time
Activity Predecessor Duration
a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4
Figure 5-7 Stage 1 of a Sample
Network
Activity Predecessor Duration
a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

• The activity names and durations are shown in the

appropriate nodes.
 Figure 5-8 A Complete
Network

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

• Note that activity f follows both band c.

• If we redraw and place the c node below the d and e nodes, we will avoid having several of
the arrows crossing one another
Figure 5-9 Information Contents in an AON
Node

ES = EST EF = EFT LS = LST LF = LFT

XXT = XXTime!
Figure 5-9 Information Contents in
an AON Node : Continue

 Lets start from ESs and EFs

 Activities a and b may start on Day 0, their ESs.
 Their EFs will be equal to their durations, five and four days,
respectively.
 Figure 5-10 The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

• Tasks c, d, and e cannot start before a is completed on Day 5.

• Adding their respective durations to their ESs gives us their EFs, c finishing on Day 8, d on Day 9,
and e on Day 11
• Task f cannot start before both b and c are finished on Day 8, resulting in the EF for f on Day 12
Figure 5-10 The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

 Similarly, we find EFs for tasks g (9 +5 = 14) and h (11 + 6 =17)→ why?????
 Thus, h cannot start until Day 11 when both d and e are finished — Days 9 and
11, respectively
 A successor cannot be started until all predecessors are completed !!!
 Same to i and j ☺
Figure 5-10 The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

 All activities, and thus all paths, must be completed to finish the project. Thus, the shortest time for completion of
the network is equal to the longest path through the network ( a – e – h – j )
 Critical path = any activity on the path is even slightly delayed, the project will be delayed (marked with bold
line)
 Critical time = 21 days
 ES & EF pass = “forward pass ” (or “ left - to - right pass ” ) and makes it simple to find the critical path and
time for PERT/CPM networks.
 Figure 5-10 The back pass or right - to - left

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

 In a similar fashion, we can perform a “ backward pass ” (or “ right - to - left

pass ” ) to calculate the LS and LF values for each activity.
 Referring to above figure, we begin by assuming that we would like to
complete the project within the critical time identified in the forward pass, 21
days in our example.
 Clearly, activities i and j must be completed no later than Day 21 in order not
to delay the entire project. Therefore, these activities both have LFs of 21.
 Figure 5-10 The back pass or right - to - left

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

 Given a task time of 4 days, j must be started no later than Day 17 in order to be completed by Day 21.
 Likewise, task i an be started as late as Day 15 and still finished by Day 21 given its 6 day task time.
 Because task j cannot be started any later than Day 17, tasks g and h must be completed by Day 17.
 In a similar fashion, task f must be completed by Day 15 so as not to delay task i beyond its LS.
 Subtracting the task times from the LF for each of the tasks yields LSs of 11, 11, and 12 for tasks f, h, and
g, respectively
 Figure 5-10 The back pass or right - to - left

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

 Task d precedes both tasks g (LS =12) and h (LS = 11).

 d’s LF be 11 or 12???.If task d were completed on Day 12, task h could not start on its LS of Day 11.
 Therefore we note that in situations where a particular activity precedes more than one task, its LF is equal
to the minimum LSs of all activities it precedes.
 The LFs and LSs for tasks b, c, and e are easily calculated since each of these tasks precedes a single task.
Task a precedes tasks c, d, and e.
 Because task e has the lowest LS of five days, the LF for task a is calculated to be five days.
 Calculating Activity Slack

 If activities on the critical path cannot be delayed without causing the entire
project to be delayed, does it follow that activities not on the critical path can be
delayed without delaying the project? As a matter of fact, it does — within limits.
 The amount of time of noncritical task/activity that can be delayed without
delaying the project is called slack or float
 Slack or Float (Total Float)
LST - EST = LFT - EFT = Slack
Note that for any task on the critical path, its LF must be the same as its EF. It
therefore has zero slack
Take activity i, for example of slack activity.
It could be completed as early as Day 18 because its ES is Day 12 and it has a six
- day duration. It must, however, be completed by Day 21 or the project will be
delayed.
Because i has a duration of six days, it cannot be started later than Day 15 (21-
6). Given an LS of 15 and an ES of 12, task i could be delayed up to 3 days (LS –
ES or LF – EF) without affecting project completion time. Thus, activity i has three
days of slack.
Total Float Vs Free Float

 Total Float: The total amount of time that a schedule activity may be delayed from its early
start date without delaying the project finish date or violating a schedule constraint.
 Total Float = LFT - EF T(or LST - EST)

 Free Float: The amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed without delaying
the early start date of any immediately following schedule activities.
 Free Float = EST of next activity – EFT of current activity
Exercise :

Calculate the Total Float and Free float

of activity F and J
 Answer

 Free Float of F
 Total Float of F
 Free Float of J
 Total float of J
Answer

For Activity F:

Total Float = LF of F – EF of F => 8 – 5 = 3

Free Float = ES of G – EF of F => 5 – 5 = 0

 For Activity J:

Total Float = LF of J – EF of J => 8 – 3 = 5

Free Float = ES of G – EF of J => 5 – 3 = 2

Note : Free float can only occur when two or more activities share a
common successor, or in other words, when activities converge on a
Network Diagram. In our example, only activities F and J can have Free Float.
EXERCISE!!!!!
 The telecommunication company has listed down the
activities of one optical fibre project as below.
(FINAL EXAM – 2014/2105)
Activity Duration Predecessor

a. Local authority approval 4 None

b. Site Survey 3 None

c. Contractor appointment 3 a

d. BOQ preparation 3 b

e. Supply of equipment 5 b

f. Civil work 4 c,d

g. Material preparation 5 e

h. Implementation & testing 8 f,g

1. Construct an activity on node network to represent the above project.

2. Calculate the earliest start, latest start, earliest finish and latest finish times for each activity. Also calculate the
minimum project completion time and identify the critical path.
3. What is the total slack / float associated with each of the non-critical activities?
4. What effect, if any, will each of the following changes have on the completion time of the project :
a. Activity D is delayed by 3 days.
b. Activity D is finished 1 day early.
PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND
RISK MANAGEMENT
Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times

 Three Time Estimates

 pessimistic (a)
 most likely (m)
 optimistic (b)
Figure 5-13 The Statistical Distribution of all
Possible Times for an Activity
Activity Expected Time and Variance

( a + 4m + b)
TE =
6

(b − a )
=
6

 (b − a ) 
2

Var =  = 
2

 6 
95 Percent Level

 Task will be a or lower 5 percent of the time

 Task will be b or greater 5 percent of the time

(b − a)
=
3.3
90 Percent Level

(b − a)
 Task will be a or lower 10 percent of the time
 Task will be b or greater 10 percent of the time
=
2.6
95 Percent Level (Alternative
Interpretation)

(b − a)
 Task will be between a and b 95 percent of the time =
3.92
90 Percent Level (Alternative
Interpretation)

(b − a)
 Task will be between a and b 90 percent of the time =
3.29
Figure 5-14 An AON Network
The Probability of Completing the Project
on Time

(D −  )
Z=
2

=NORMDIST(D,,,TRUE)
Figure 5-18 The Statistical Distribution of Completion
Times of the Path a-b-d-g-h
Selecting Risk and Finding D

D =  + Z  2

NORMINV(probability,,,TRUE)
SIMULATION
Traditional Statistics Versus Simulation

 Similarities
 must enumerate alternate paths
 Differences
 simulation does not require assumption of path independence
THE GANNT CHART
Figure 5-23
A Gantt
Chart of a
Sample
Project
Figure 5-24 A Gantt Chart of Sample Project Showing Critical
Path, Path Connections, Slack, EST, LST, EFT, and LFT

a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
Figure 5-25 A Gantt Chart of a Day Care Project Showing
Expected Durations, Critical Path, Milestone, and Resource
Requirements
Figure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day Care Project
Showing Actual Progress Versus Baseline
 EXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPM

MEM 612 Project Management

Precedence Diagramming

 Finish-to-start linkage
 Start-to-start linkage
 Finish-to-finish linkage
 Start-to-finish linkage
Figure 5-27 Precedence Diagramming
Conventions
Other Methods

 Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)

 combines flowgraphs, probabilistic networks, and decision trees
 allows loops back to earlier events and probabilistic branching