Demand (Nilai Asli) Demand yang sudah ditambah 2 Digit NPM

Data Masa Lalu

Bebek Bebek Perahu Bebek Bebek
Periode Eskavator Periode
Roda 1 roda 4 Dayung Roda 1 roda 4
1 7200 10928 12096 4363 1 7247 10975
2 7925 11348 12895 4908 2 7972 11395
3 8649 11698 13462 5313 3 8696 11745
4 8406 12202 13671 5405 4 8453 12249
5 9489 13042 14022 5532 5 9536 13089
6 9575 12600 14758 5747 6 9622 12647
7 10274 13447 16064 6134 7 10321 13494
8 10197 14084 16249 6190 8 10244 14131
9 11113 14840 18929 6233 9 11160 14887
10 11969 16590 19817 6671 10 12016 16637
11 12506 17780 20322 7298 11 12553 17827
12 12706 18200 21295 7700 12 12753 18247

NORIS RIJAL JUMLAH

45 48 93
mbah 2 Digit NPM Agregasi ke Waktu

Perahu Bebek Roda Bebek Roda Perahu

Eskavator Periode Eskavator
Dayung 1 4 Dayung
12143 4410 WS 1.29 0.81 0.39 2.06
12942 4955 1 9348 8889 4736 9084
13509 5360 2 10283 9230 5047 10206
13718 5452 3 11217 9513 5268 11041
14069 5579 4 10904 9921 5350 11230
14805 5794 5 12301 10602 5487 11492
16111 6181 6 12412 10244 5774 11935
16296 6237 7 13313 10930 6283 12732
18976 6280 8 13214 11446 6355 12847
19864 6718 9 14396 12058 7400 12936
20369 7345 10 15500 13476 7747 13838
21342 7747 11 16193 14439 7944 15130
12 16451 14780 8323 15958
 Agregasi ke Unit
Forerane
Bebek Roda Bebek Roda Perahu
Jumlah (Dt) Periode Eskavator
1 4 Dayung
FK 1.00 0.63 0.30 1.60
32056 1 7247 6891 3671 7042
34766 2 7972 7155 3913 7912
37039 3 8696 7374 4084 8559
37405 4 8453 7691 4147 8705
39881 5 9536 8218 4253 8908
40364 6 9622 7941 4476 9252
43258 7 10321 8473 4871 9870
43862 8 10244 8873 4927 9959
46790 9 11160 9347 5737 10028
50560 10 12016 10446 6005 10727
53706 11 12553 11193 6158 11728
55511 12 12753 11457 6452 12370

Presentase Agregasi Unit

Bebek Roda Bebek Roda Perahu
Periode Eskavator
1 4 Dayung
1 29.16% 27.73% 14.77% 28.34%
2 29.58% 26.55% 14.52% 29.36%
3 30.28% 25.68% 14.22% 29.81%
4 29.15% 26.52% 14.30% 30.02%
5 30.84% 26.58% 13.76% 28.82%
6 30.75% 25.38% 14.30% 29.57%
7 30.78% 25.27% 14.52% 29.43%
8 30.13% 26.09% 14.49% 29.29%
9 30.77% 25.77% 15.82% 27.65%
10 30.66% 26.65% 15.32% 27.37%
11 30.15% 26.89% 14.79% 28.17%
12 29.63% 26.62% 14.99% 28.75%
Jumlah
Chart Title
24850 50000
26951 45000
28713 40000
28996 35000
30915 30000
31290 25000
33533 20000
34002 15000
36271 10000
39194 5000
41632 0
43032 0 2 4 6 8 10

Jumlah
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
art Title

6 8 10 12 14
 Merode Double Exponential Smooth
waktu
t Dt Dt*t t^2 t Dt
1 24850 24850 1 1 24850
2 26951 53901 4 2 26951
3 28713 86138 9 3 28713
4 28996 115984 16 4 28996
5 30915 154577 25 5 30915
6 31290 187738 36 6 31290
7 33533 234734 49 7 33533
8 34002 272014 64 8 34002
9 36271 326442 81 9 36271
10 39194 391941 100 10 39194
11 41632 457955 121 11 41632
12 43032 516385 144 12 43032
Jumlah 399379
Rata-Rata

alfa = 0.1

Regresi Linier

a b t Dt
22977.33 1585.27 1 24850
2 26951
3 28713
4 28996
5 30915
6 31290
7 33533
8 34002
9 36271
10 39194
11 41632
1585.27 12 43032
78 399379
6.5 33282
 S't S"t at bt m Ft et
24850 24850 24850 0 1
25060 24871 25249 21 1 24850 2101
25425 24926 25924 55 1 25270 3442
25782 25012 26553 86 1 25980 3016
26296 25140 27451 128 1 26638 4277
26795 25306 28284 165 1 27579 3710
27469 25522 29416 216 1 28450 5084
28122 25782 30462 260 1 29632 4370
28937 26098 31777 315 1 30722 5549
29963 26484 33441 387 1 32092 7102
31130 26949 35311 465 1 33828 7804
32320 27486 37154 537 1 35775 7257
1 37691 53713
4883
ME

Dt x t t^2 Ft et [et] et^2

24850 1 24563 287 287 82589
53901 4 26148 803 803 644326
86138 9 27733 979 979 959139
115984 16 29318 -322 322 103910
154577 25 30904 12 12 138
187738 36 32489 -1199 1199 1438132
234734 49 34074 -541 541 292486
272014 64 35660 -1658 1658 2748166
326442 81 37245 -973 973 947576
391941 100 38830 364 364 132522
457955 121 40415 1217 1217 1480853
516385 144 42001 1031 1031 1063925
2822659 650 0 9387 9893762
0 782 948
ME MAD SDE
 [et] et^2

2101 4412474.76569917
3442 11850128.434111
3016 9099159
4277 18293751
3710 13767149
5084 25843367
4370 19094917
5549 30792610
7102 50438791
7804 60906570
7257 52660197
53713 297159114
4883 5198
MAD SDE

Rekapitulasi Error
Error DES RL
ME 4883 0
MAD 4883 782
SDE 5198 948

Peramalan Peramalan = a+b+t

t Ft
13 43586
14 45171
15 46756
16 48342
17 49927
18 51512
19 53098
20 54683
21 56268
22 57853
23 59439
24 61024