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3: Sampling Distribution of p ̅: Introduction to Statistics-2021- Lagios

5.3: Sampling Distribution of p ̅

15:09

 
In the previous section, we learned about the distribution of sample means. We did this study
because we will want to use the mean of a sample to estimate the mean of the entire population,
something that we will do in detail in module 6. There are also going to be many cases in which we
will want to use the proportion of a sample to estimate the proportion of an entire population. For
example, suppose we survey 100 people in a city to determine what proportion of the 100 are in
favor of raising taxes to fund a new highway. We use the proportion of that sample to estimate what
proportion of the entire city is in favor of raising taxes to fund the new highway. In order to do this
estimate accurately, we must understand something about how the proportions of samples are
distributed. So, we will study the probability distribution for all the possible values of the sample
proportion p*. The probability distribution for all the possible values of the sample proportion p* is
called the sampling distribution of the sample proportion p*.

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We are going to review the properties of the sampling distribution of p* in order to help us determine
how close the sample proportion p* is to the population proportion p. These properties are: the
expected value of p*, the standard deviation of p*, and the shape of the sampling distribution of p*.

Expected Value of p*

The mean of all the possible values of p* for any given sample size, n, is called the expected value of
p*. The expected value of p* is expressed as the following:

E(p*)

We also have that the expected value of p* is equal to the population proportion:

E(p*) = p

where:                      E(p*) = the expected value of p*

                                 p = the population proportion

Standard Deviation of p*

Note that different random samples will generate a variety of values for p*. Now we will review the
standard deviation of p*, which is also referred to as the standard error of the proportion.

Again, just like with the sample mean x̄ , the equation to calculate the standard deviation of p
depends on whether the population is infinite or finite. The two formulas for the standard deviation of
p are as follows:

We see from a comparison of the two formulas that the only difference between them is the finite
population correction factor:

The difference between the infinite population and finite population formulas becomes negligible
when the size of the finite population is large in comparison to the sample size. The same rules
developed for the sample mean apply to the sample proportion mean:

We may use the infinite population formula if you have one of these three conditions:

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1. The population is infinite.

2. You do not know the actual population size but you are told that it is “large.”
3. The population size, N, is known, and the sample size is less than or equal to 5% of the
population size: 

Form of the Sampling of p*

Now that we know how to calculate the mean and sample deviation of p*, we can apply the central
limit theorem as it relates to p* by the following:

The sampling distribution of p* can be approximated by a normal probability

distribution whenever the sample size is large.

In regards to p*, the sample size can be considered large whenever the following two criteria are
met:

For example, suppose p = .35 and n = 30, we have:

Since both criteria are passed, the sampling distribution of p can be approximated by a normal
probability distribution. The following chart shows this distribution:

Graph 5.6

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Practical Value of the Sampling Distribution of p*

Just as with x̄ , a sampling error (SE) is to be expected whenever a simple random sample is selected
and the value of the sample proportion p* is used to estimate the value of the population proportion
p. In the case of p, the SE is the absolute value of the difference between the value of the sample
proportion p* and the value of the population proportion p.

SE = |p* - p|

We will also use the z-score in combination with the sampling distribution of p* in order to determine
the probability that a specific sample will have a proportion within a certain distance of the population
proportion. This is done in the next example.

Example 5.5. Suppose that in a certain state, chemotherapy Drug A is often used treat those who
have cancer. The proportion of the population that use Drug A is .35.

a) If you select a simple random sample of size 30 from this city, what is the probability that the
sample selected has a Drug A proportion p* within 0.05 of the Drug A population proportion. In other
words, we want to know the probability that the selected sample will have a proportion p* between
0.30 and 0.40.

b) If you select a simple random sample of size 100 from this city, what is the probability that the
sample selected has a Drug A proportion p* within 0.05 of the Drug A population proportion.

Solution.

a) We know the sampling distribution of p* can be approximated by the normal probability distribution
with a mean p* = 0.35 and a standard deviation calculated by:

Once again, we use the z-score.

Here are our calculations:

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The following graph shows the area calculated:

So, when selecting a sample of size n = 30, the probability of that sample having a proportion within
.05 of the population proportion is only about .43132.

b) Let's look at the probability when we change the number in the sample to n = 100.

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So, when selecting a sample of size n = 100, the probability of that sample having a proportion within
.05 of the population proportion is about .70628.

Thus, by increasing the sample size to 100 from the original 30, the probability of the sample
proportion p being within 0.05 of the population proportion increases from 0.4314 to 0.7068.

The following Graph 5.8 represents the distribution when n = 100:

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