 

 
 
 
  
  
  
 




  –
  –
 

APA

            
 

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/ 
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬
‫ھ ﺪﻓﺖ ﺗﻠ ﻚ اﻟﺪراﺳ ﺔ إﻟ ﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿ ﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗ ﺔ ﺑ ﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳ ﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟ ﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓ ﻲ ﺿ ﻮء ﻣ ﺎ ﺗُﺤﺪِﺛ ﮫ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳ ﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣ ﻦ ﻓﺠ ﻮة ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿ ﺔ ‪ -‬ﻋ ﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛ ﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎت ‪ -‬ﺑ ﯿﻦ اﻻدارة اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿ ﺔ واﻟﻤ ﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨ ﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘ ﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿ ﺔ‪ .‬وﻗﺎﻣ ﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳ ﺔ ﺑﺎﺧﺘﺒ ﺎر‬
‫اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠ ﻰ اﺳ ﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟ ﺸﺮﻛﺔ ودراﺳ ﺔ اﻷﺛ ﺮ ﻏﯿ ﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷ ﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠ ﻰ اﺳ ﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟ ﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓ ﻲ ﻇ ﻞ وﺟ ﻮد اﻟ ﺪور اﻟﻮﺳ ﯿﻂ ﻟﻌ ﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛ ﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎت‪،‬‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟ ﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟ ﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻮرﺻ ﺔ اﻟﻤ ﺼﺮﯾﺔ ﻓ ﻲ اﻟﻔﺘ ﺮة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﻋ ﺎم ‪٢٠١٤‬‬
‫اﻟﻰ ﻋﺎم ‪.٢٠١٩‬‬
‫وﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻋﯿﻨ ﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ‪ ١٣٧‬ﺷ ﺮﻛﺔ واﻟﺘ ﻲ ﺳ ﺠﻠﺖ ‪ ٦٥٨‬ﻣ ﺸﺎھﺪة‪ ،‬ﺗﺒ ﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣ ﺚ ﻣ ﻦ‬
‫اﺧﺘﺒ ﺎر اﻟﻌﻼﻗ ﺎت اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷ ﺮة وﻏﯿ ﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷ ﺮة ﺑ ﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿ ﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳ ﺔ وﺟ ﻮد ﺗ ﺄﺛﯿﺮ إﯾﺠ ﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠ ﻰ زﯾ ﺎدة ﻓ ﺮص اﺳ ﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟ ﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪ .‬ﻛﻤ ﺎ ﺗﻮﺻ ﻞ اﻟﺒﺎﺣ ﺚ اﻟ ﻲ أن زﯾ ﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳ ﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻟﺬي أدي ﺑﺪوره اﻟﻲ ﺗﺨﻔ ﯿﺾ‬
‫ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺻﻞ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ إﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ )ﺳﻠﺒﻲ( ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎت‬
‫ﻋﻠ ﻰ اﻻﺳ ﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ واﻟ ﺬي دل ﻋﻠ ﻰ اﻧﺨﻔ ﺎض اﻟﺘ ﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻻﯾﺠ ﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﻓ ﺮص‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ،‬اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٧٩‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻻﺧﺘﺼﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻔﮭﻮم‬

‫‪TP‬‬ ‫أﺣﺪ اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮم اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﺑﺘﻨﻔﯿﺬھﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﯿﺾ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪل ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﻮﻓﻮرات اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ واﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎدة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺰاﯾﺎ‬ ‫‪Tax Planning‬‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﺑﻐﺮض ﺗﻨﺸﯿﻂ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‪.‬‬
‫‪ETRs‬‬ ‫ﯾﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻗﺴﻤﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ )اﻟﺒﺴﻂ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ أو ﺻﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫‪Effective Tax Rates‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ )اﻟﻤﻘﺎم(‪.‬‬
‫‪Go. Con‬‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﮭﺎ إﻟﻰ أﺟﻞ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬
‫ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﺎﻟﻢ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻋﻜﺲ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬أي أﻧﮫ‬
‫‪Going Concern of‬‬
‫ﯾﻔﺘﺮض اﺳﺘﻤﺮار اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ إﻟﻰ أﺟﻞ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺪد وذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪Companies‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮر ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ أھﺪاﻓﮭﺎ وﻣﺎ ﺑﻨﯿﺖ ﻷﺟﻠﮫ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺪون وﺟﻮد أﯾﺔ أدﻟﺔ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ أو ﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﮭﺎ‪ ،‬أو اﻟﺘﺼﻔﯿﺔ ﺳﻮاء ﻛﺎﻧﺖ إﺟﺒﺎرﯾﺔ أو‬
‫اﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺔ‬
‫‪Info_Assy‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻣﺘﻼك ﺑﻌﺾ اﻷﻃﺮاف‬ ‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ذات ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺟﻮھﺮي ﻋﻦ‬
‫‪Information‬‬
‫اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻷﺧﺮى واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﺴﺒﮭﻢ ﻣﯿﺰة ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﺳﻮاء ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪Asymmetry‬‬
‫ﺗﺠﻨﺐ اﻟﺨﺴﺎرة أو ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ رﺑﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻮرة ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ‬

‫‪   ‬‬

‫أدى وﺟﻮد اﻻﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻻﻋﺘﺮاف واﻟﻘﯿﺎس ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻊ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻇﮭﻮر اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺘﺔ واﻟﺪاﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﺳﺘﻐﻼﻟﮭﺎ ﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ اﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻔﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﻓﻮرات اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت‬
‫ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ)‪. (Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019, P. 225‬‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻌﯿﺪ آﺧﺮ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻋﺪم اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﻓﻲ اﻷرﺑﺎح‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﮭﺪد اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫إﻻ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ دراﯾﺔ ﺑﺄن ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻛﺎن ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﻌﺪﻻت‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ‪ ،‬وﻗﻞ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺤﺪث ذﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﯿﺆدي اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﺗﺨﻮف اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﮭﺪد ﺑﻘﺎء واﺳﺘﻤﺮار ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت)‪. (Chen & Lin, 2017, p. 2058‬‬
‫وﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﯾﺘﻀﺢ وﺟﻮد وﺟﮭﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﺪﻋﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺳﺘﺴﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ وزﯾﺎدة ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ ‪(e.g. Balalkrishnan, et al., 2019; Chen & Lin, 2017; Christen, et‬‬
‫‪al., 2015; Jackson, 2015; Blaylock, et al., 2012; Hanlon, 2005; Phillips, et‬‬
‫)‪ ،al. 2013‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ وﺟﮭﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﺮاﻓﻀﺔ ﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻣﺴﺒﺐ‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٨٠‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫رﺋﯿﺴﻲ ﯾﻀﺮ ﺑﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﻟﻌﺰوف ﻋﻦ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر وﺗﮭﺪﯾﺪ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪم وﺿﻮح اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫وﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ;‪(e.g. Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019; Bayar, et al., 2018‬‬
‫)‪.Kalbitz & Eichfelder, 2016; Lazar, 2014; Graham, et al., 2014‬‬
‫وﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﺠﺴﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﻻﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺎ ھﻮ أﺛﺮ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت؟‬
‫ﻣﺎ ھﻮ أﺛﺮ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت؟‬
‫ﻣﺎ ھﻮ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت؟‬
‫ﻣﺎ ھﻮ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ؟‬
‫‪   ‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ اﻷھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻻﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎره اﻟﻤﻌﺒﺮ‬
‫اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﻲ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﺴﺎھﻢ‬
‫ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﺗﺠﺎه وﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ اﻷھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﻢ اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮؤى واﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﺎت‬
‫ﻟﻠﮭﯿﺌﺎت اﻟﻤﮭﻨﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ وﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﻢ اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮؤى ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻻﻛﺘﺘﺎب واﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮي ﻋﻦ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﻛﻔﺎءة ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮي‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ‬
‫زﯾﺎدة ﻗﺪرة اﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ﺑﯿﻨﮭﺎ وﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ‬
‫ﯾﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪   ‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﮭﺪف اﻟﻌﺎم ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺿﻮء ﻣﺎ ﺗُﺤﺪِﺛﮫ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺠﻮة ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ – ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ -‬ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ،‬واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬وﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﮭﺪف اﻟﻌﺎم ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻷھﺪاف اﻟﻔﺮﻋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور‬
‫اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٨١‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪   ‬‬

‫اﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎً ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎً ﻷھﺪاﻓﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺻﯿﺎﻏﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻷول‪ :‬ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ذو دﻻﻟﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ذو دﻻﻟﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ :‬ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ذو دﻻﻟﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪ :‬ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ذو دﻻﻟﺔ اﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪   ‬‬
‫ﺳﻌﯿﺎً ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ اھﺪاف اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ واﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻓﺮوﺿﮭﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﯾﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٥‬دراﺳﺎت ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٢-٥‬ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وآﺛﺎرھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٣-٥‬اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٤-٥‬اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻋﺮض ﺑﻘﯿﺔ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﯾﺎت ﺧﻄﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺸﻲء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٥‬دراﺳﺎت ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻋﺘﻤﺪت ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ أن اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻮاردة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﻃﺮاف ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﻠﻌﺐ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮف ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﺎول اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (١‬أوﺿﺤﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Kalbitz& Eichfelder, 2016‬أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن‬
‫أﻛﺜﺮ اﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎً ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻟﺠﻨﺴﯿﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﻠﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪ ٦٨٤١‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ دول اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‪ ،‬وارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪-‬ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪-‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻟﺠﻨﺴﯿﺎت وﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﻲ ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت‬
‫ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪول اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﻟﺘﺪﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻷرﺑﺎح‪ ،‬واﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪول اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪––‬‬

‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻣﻦ دوﻟﺔ ﻷﺧﺮى‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﯾﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ أﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ وﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮم ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺔ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎوﻟﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Bayar, et al., 2018‬اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ دور آﻟﯿﺎت اﻟﺤﻮﻛﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫‪(٢‬‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﺎً‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٨٩٦٢‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻻﯾﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺪة‬
‫اﻷﻣﺮﯾﻜﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ووﺟﺪوا أن اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ ﺳﯿﺆدي ﺣﺘﻤﺎً اﻟﻰ ﺣﺪوث‬
‫ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺴﺎﻋﺪ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام آﻟﯿﺎت ﺣﻮﻛﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﺴﻔﻲ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮار ﻓﻲ ﻗﺮارات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎوﻟﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019‬اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺪور ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬ ‫‪(٣‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮار اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﻻ ﺳﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫أﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٩٥٢١‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﻮرﺻﺔ اﻻﯾﻄﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ووﺟﺪا أن‬
‫اﻟﮭﺪف اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ھﻮ اﺳﺘﻐﻼل ھﺬه اﻟﻮﻓﻮرات‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻘﺔ ﻟﺰﯾﺎدة ﺣﺠﻢ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت زﯾﺎدة اﻟﺮﺑﺤﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮة اﻟﺰاﺋﺪة وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻨﮫ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﯾﺤﺪث اﺣﺠﺎم ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺸﺮاء واﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ أﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﺗﺨﻮف‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻷرﺑﺎح‪ ،‬وﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺤﺪث اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة‬
‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪور اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﺤﻘﻘﮫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬
‫اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ ،‬إﻻ أﻧﮫ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﯿﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرات اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫أﯾﻀﺎً ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻻﺿﺮار ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻋﺪم اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻷرﺑﺎح‪ .‬وﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻄﺮدﯾﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻛﻞٍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ أﻣﺮاً ﻣﺜﺒﺘﺎً‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ھﺪﻓﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Drake, et al., 2020‬اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻛﻞٍ‬ ‫‪(٤‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ وﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻄﯿﺎت اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻮاردة ﺑﮭﺎ‪ ،‬أي أن ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻛﻞٍ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎذا ﺣﺪث أي ﺗﺸﻮه أو ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺣﺪث اﻟﺨﻠﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﻗﺮارات اﻷﻃﺮاف ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ١٢٤٠٤‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻟﺠﻨﺴﯿﺎت ﺑﺪول اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺴﺎھﻢ وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬وﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺳﻠﺒﯿﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞٍ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﺳﺘﮭﺪﻓﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Fernandez Rodriguez, 2020‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪(٥‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻛﻤﻘﯿﺎس ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮارات ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﻃﺮاف ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫‪ ٧٨٤٤‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ دول اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٨٣‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﻻ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻮھﺮي ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻀﺮر ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺮارات اﻷﻃﺮاف ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﻟﻦ ﯾﻜﻮن ھﻨﺎك أي ﺿﺮر ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮرات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٦‬ھﺪﻓﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Choi, et al., 2020‬اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ دﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺒﺆات اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻛﻤﺤﺪد ﻟﻼﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺷﺊ‬
‫ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ ١٢٧١٨‬ﺑﺪول‬
‫اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‪ ،‬وﻗﺪ وﺟﺪت اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ أن ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة‬
‫اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﺗﺸﺘﺖ دﻗﺔ ﺗﻨﺒﺆات اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ وارﺗﻔﺎع‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻷﺧﻄﺎء ﺑﮭﺎ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ وﺟﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (٧‬ھﺪﻓﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Cooper & Nguyen, 2020‬اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪة‬
‫دراﺳﺎت ذات ﺻﻠﺔ واﻋﺘﻤﺎداً ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﻠﻮب اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺒﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ )‪ (Meta-Analysis‬ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ ١٠٩‬ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﻨﺸﻮر ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﻼت اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻜﻤﺔ واﻟﻤﻄﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪول‪ ،‬وﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻰ ﺣﺘﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻄﺮدﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻌﻜﺲ أﺛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞٍ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬
‫واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﻌﻘﯿﺒﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺒﻖ‪ ،‬ﯾﺘﻀﺢ أن اﻷﺛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ھﻮ اﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻷﻛﺜﺮ أھﻤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬إﻻ أن اﻻﺧﺘﻼف ﻓﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت واﺿﺢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﻠﻲ وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺒﺮر ﺗﻠﺨﯿﺺ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(١‬ﻣﻠﺨﺺ اﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻣﺤﻞ‬
‫اﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ ﻣﺤﻞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﺸﺮوﻃﺔ‬ ‫‪٦٨٤١‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٣-١٩٩٥‬‬ ‫اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‬ ‫‪Kalbitz& Eichfelder, 2016‬‬
‫ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ‬ ‫‪٨٩٦٢‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٧-٢٠٠٠‬‬ ‫أﻣﺮﯾﻜﺎ‬ ‫‪Bayar, et al., 2018‬‬
‫ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ‬ ‫‪٩٥٢١‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٤-١٩٩٨‬‬ ‫اﯾﻄﺎﻟﯿﺎ‬ ‫‪Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019‬‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪١٢٤٠٤‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٥-١٩٩٦‬‬ ‫اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‬ ‫‪Drake, et al., 2020‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪٧٨٤٤‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٧-١٩٩٩‬‬ ‫اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‬ ‫‪Fernandez Rodriguez,‬‬
‫‪2020‬‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪١٢٧١٨‬‬ ‫‪٢٠١٨-٢٠٠٠‬‬ ‫اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷوروﺑﻲ‬ ‫‪Choi, et al., 2020‬‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪ ١٠٩‬ﺑﺤﺚ‬ ‫‪-----‬‬ ‫‪------‬‬ ‫‪Cooper & Nguyen, 2020‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٨٤‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫وﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﮭﺎ ﯾﺮى اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ أن ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﺣﺘﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪل ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب واﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﯾﺮى اﻟﺒﻌﺾ & ‪(Cooper‬‬
‫)‪ Nguyen, 2020‬ﻣﻨﮭﻢ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻨﻌﻜﺲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺮأﺳﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﯾﺮى اﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻵﺧﺮ ‪(Choi, et al.,‬‬
‫& ‪2020; Drake, et al., 2020; Fernandez Rodriguez, 2020; Heitzman‬‬
‫)‪ Ogneva, 2019; Bayar, et al., 2018; Kalbitz & Eichfelder, 2016‬اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺴﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺤﺪث ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺤﺪوث‪.‬‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺨﻼف ﯾﺒﺪو ھﻨﺎك اﺗﻔﺎق واﺟﻤﺎع ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب واﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ أن‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﺎھﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ –ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪ -‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻟﻜﻮﻧﮭﺎ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻹدارة اﻷرﺑﺎح‪.‬‬
‫اﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻋﺮض اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﻠﺨﯿﺺ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﺒﺤﺜﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺂﺛﺎر ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺳﻮاء ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة أو ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻋﺪم‬
‫اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬أن ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت وﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺻﻠﺖ إﻟﯿﮫ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺒﯿﺌﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺼﺮﯾﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ )اﻻﺗﺤﺎد اﻷورﺑﻲ‪ ،‬أﻣﺮﯾﻜﺎ‪ ،‬اﺳﺘﺮاﻟﯿﺎ‪ ،‬اﻟﺼﯿﻦ(‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻧﺼﺐ ﺗﺮﻛﯿﺰ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﻀﯿﻞ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ،‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﻀﻲ ﺑﺄن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻮﻓﻮرات اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆدي اﻟﻰ رﻓﻊ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺘﮫ ﻟﻐﺮض ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻷﻋﻤﺎل وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﻻ‬
‫ﯾﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﻀﯿﻞ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﺒﺮز أھﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺰ أﻛﺜﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻵﺛﺎر ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫وﺗﺄﺳﯿﺴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﯾﺮى اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ أن اﻟﻤﺤﺎور اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺠﻮة ﺑﺤﺜﯿﺔ ھﺎﻣﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﻐﻄﯿﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ اﻻﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﮭﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻵﺛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٢-٥‬ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وآﺛﺎرھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ أن اﻟﻨﻈﺮة اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺎرﺳﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‬
‫ﺗﻔﺘﺮض أن ھﺬه اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺗﺆدي إﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﺛﺮوة اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺧﻔﺾ اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺤﻔﺎظ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻷﺻﻮل اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ورﻓﻊ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ وﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮار‪،‬‬
‫إﻻ أن ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺜﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ وﺟﮭﺎت ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت وﺟﻮدة اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت إدارة اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫واﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺌﻮﻟﯿﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﻘﺪم دﻟﯿﻼً ﻋﻠﻰ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﯿﺲ ﻣﺠﺮد ﻧﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﺜﺮوة ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ .‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﯾﻨﻄﻮي اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻠﻮﻛﯿﺎت اﻻﻧﺘﮭﺎزﯾﺔ اﻹدارﯾﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆدي إﻟﻰ اﻧﺘﺰاع اﻟﺜﺮوة ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ‬
‫واﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﻤﺪﯾﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﯾﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺿﺮر‬
‫ﺑﺴﻤﻌﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻌﻼﻗﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ أﺻﺤﺎب اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ‪ ،‬وﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺴﺘﻔﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﻮن ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻣﺘﻨﺎع ﻋﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪(Kawor & Kportorgbi, 2014,‬‬
‫)‪p.163‬‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻨﺎول اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼل ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺤﺎور أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫أوﻻً‪ :‬اﻷﺛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻘﺮارات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﻘﺮارات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ إﻟﻰ )اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ‪ ،‬اﻟﻘﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎري‪ ،‬وﻗﺮار ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح(‪:‬‬
‫أ‪ -‬اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ أھﻢ اﻟﻘﺮارات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ أﺛﺮ‬
‫ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷداء ھﺬا وﺗﻠﺠﺄ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻋﺎدة ﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﮭﺎ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺼﺎدر ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺳﻮاء ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻃﻮﯾﻠﺔ‬
‫أو ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ أو ﻗﺼﯿﺮة اﻷﺟﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﺎ ھﻮ داﺧﻠﻲ وﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﺎ ھﻮ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ وﻋﻠﻰ إدارة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ أن‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺞ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺆدي إﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﻷﺻﺤﺎب اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ أھﻢ اﻟﺠﻮاﻧﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ أن ﯾﻀﻌﮭﺎ أﻣﺎم ﻣﺘﺨﺬ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ اﻷﺛﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺼﺪر ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﺎدر اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ و‪/‬أو اﻻﻗﺘﺮاض ) ﻋﺒﺎس‪.(٢٠١٦ ،‬‬
‫ب‪ -‬اﻟﻘﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎري واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻘﺮار اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎري ﻣﻦ أھﻢ وأﺻﻌﺐ اﻟﻘﺮارات ﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﺘﮫ اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ وﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮاﺗﮫ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺪﺛﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﯿﺮ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻛﻜﻞ‪ ،‬ﻟﺬا ﯾﺠﺐ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﮭﻢ ﯾﺘﻢ أﺧﺬه ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻹﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﻨﺪ اﺗﺨﺎذ أي ﻗﺮار اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎري‪ ،‬وﯾﮭﺪف اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺰاﯾﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﻲ اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ واﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﻮاﻓﺰ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﻨﺎخ ﻣﺸﺠﻊ وﻣﺤﻔﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر وﻗﺪ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻋﻔﺎء ﺿﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ١‬أو ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ٢‬أو إﺟﺮاءات ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻨﯿﺔ‪) ٣‬ﻋﺒﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ‪.(٢٠١٨،‬‬
‫ﺟـ‪ -‬ﻗﺮار ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﻗﺮار ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح اﺗﺨﺎذ اﻟﻘﺮار ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ أو اﺣﺘﺠﺎز اﻷرﺑﺎح ﺑﻐﺮض إﻋﺎدة‬
‫اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرھﺎ داﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ھﺬه اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷھﻤﯿﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﺎن ﻷﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺗﺠﺎھﺎت‬

‫‪ ١‬اﻋﻔﺎء ﺿﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ :‬ھﻮ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ اﺳﻘﺎط ﺣﻖ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻘﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ اﻻﻟﺘﺰام ﺑﻨﺸﺎط اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﻌﯿﻦ‬
‫أو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ أو ﻓﻲ ﻇﺮوف ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺬي ﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن داﺋﻢ أو ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ٢‬ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ :‬ھﻮ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ إﺧﻀﺎع اﻟﻤﻤﻮﻟﯿﻦ ﻟﻤﻌﺪﻻت ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪة ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ اﻻﻟﺘﺰام‬
‫ﺑﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﺸﺮوط‪.‬‬
‫‪ ٣‬اﺟﺮاءات ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻨﯿﺔ‪ :‬وھﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﺠﻮاﻧﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ أﺛﺎر‬
‫ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻔﯿﺰﯾﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻹھﻼك‪.‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪––‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ وﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺪﻓﻖ اﻷﻣﻮال‪،‬‬
‫واﻟﺴﯿﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‪ ،‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻷﻣﻮال وﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح إﻣﺎ ﻗﺮاراً اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺎً أو‬
‫ﻗﺮاراً ﺗﻤﻮﯾﻠﯿﺎً ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬أن ﻗﺮار ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻗﺮاراً اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺎً إذا ﻣﺎ اﻋﺘﻤﺪت اﻟﻘﺮارات اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ وھﺬا ﯾﻔﺮض ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ أن ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻘﺮر‬
‫اﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻔﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ واﺳﺘﺨﺪام ذﻟﻚ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ اﺳﺘﯿﻔﺎء ﻛﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬أﻣﺎ اﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻛﻘﺮار ﺗﻤﻮﯾﻠﻲ ﻓﯿﺤﺪث ﺣﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﺠﺄ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺪر ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ وﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻌﻜﺲ ﻗﺮار اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻤﻮﯾﻠﯿﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ھﯿﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﺗﻜﻤﻦ ﻓﻲ أن اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻢ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﮫ ﻣﻘﺪار اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﺤﺘﺠﺰة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﻦ اﺣﺘﯿﺎﺟﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻹﻧﺠﺎز ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ )ﻋﺒﺎس‪.(٢٠١٦ ،‬‬
‫وﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻤﺎ ﺳﯿﻖ أن اﻟﺒﻌﺪ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮاً أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﺮارات‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻮﺿﺢ دور اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻷداء‬
‫وھﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدات أو اﻟﻤﻈﺎھﺮ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎً‪ :‬اﻷﺛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ﻗﺪﻣﺖ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ‪(e.g. Lev & Nissim 2004, Hanlon,2005, Ayers et‬‬
‫)‪ al.,2010‬أدﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أن اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮة ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ دﻟﯿﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻤﻮ ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻀﺎر)اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺎﯾﻞ( وﺗﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻣﻊ ﻧﻤﻮ اﻷرﺑﺎح‪ ،‬واﻟﻌﻮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﮭﻢ‪،‬‬
‫وأن اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ذات اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮة اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺄﺟﯿﻞ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ -‬اﻟﻔﺮوق‬
‫اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺘﺔ‪ -‬ھﻲ أﻗﻞ ﺛﺒﺎﺗﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺤﺠﻢ اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻷﻗﻞ‪ ،‬وھﺬا‬
‫ﯾﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺳﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺆﺟﻞ وﺟﻮدة اﻷرﺑﺎح ‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أداة ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ أداء اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Schmidt,2006,p.589‬إﻟﻰ أن اﻷرﺑﺎح أﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻔﺮوق اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻓﻲ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ أن اﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮ اﻟﻤﻜﻮن ﻟﻸرﺑﺎح واﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ ﯾﻤﯿﻞ ﻷن ﯾﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻷن اﻟﺘﻌﺪﯾﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺮوف اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ ﺗﺤﺪث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﻓﺮوﻗﺎً ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈن اﻧﻌﻜﺎس ﻣﺼﺮوف اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ ﺳﻮف ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻗﺪ أﺷﺎر )‪ (Mcgill& Outslay,2004,p.741‬إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﺘﻔﺎوت اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت‬
‫وﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ)اﻟﺪﻓﺘﺮي( واﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﺿﻊ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ ھﻮ دﻟﯿﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻤﻮ ﻧﺸﺎط‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻀﺎر‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ أورد إﻟﻰ أن اﻷدﻟﺔ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻔﺠﻮات اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮة ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﺮرة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ واﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﺿﻊ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺸﺄت ﻓﻲ أواﺧﺮ اﻟﺘﺴﻌﯿﻨﺎت ھﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺎً ﺑﺰﯾﺎدة ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ .‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ اﻟﻮﻛﺎﻻت اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﯿﺔ‬
‫وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤﺎت إﻟﻰ إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻼت ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﻧﺸﺮھﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻧﮭﯿﺎر ﺷﺮﻛﺔ إﻧﺮون وﺷﺮﻛﺔ وورﻟﺪﻛﻮم وﺗﺒﯿﻦ أﻧﮫ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ أدت إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻧﮭﯿﺎر ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ھﻮ اﻟﺘﻮﺟﮫ ﻧﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻹدارات اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ داﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ أﻧﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺮاﻛﺰ رﺑﺤﯿﺔ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺮاﻛﺰ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ھﺬه اﻹدارات ﻣﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺑﺘﻌﺰﯾﺰ ﺛﺮوة‬
‫اﻟﻤﻼك ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﻓﺎء ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪.‬‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ وﺟﮫ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﮫ أوﺿﺤﺖ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Christensen& Murphy,2004‬أن ﺷﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫اﻧﺮون دﻓﻌﺖ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﺎرﯾﻦ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎً ‪ ٨٨‬ﻣﻠﯿﻮن دوﻻر ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪار ﻋﺸﺮ ﺳﻨﻮات ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ دﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺿﺮاﺋﺐ ﻗﺪرھﺎ ‪ ٢‬ﺑﻠﯿﻮن دوﻻر‪ .‬وﺗﺸﯿﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺪارﺳﺔ أن اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت‬
‫ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﺪواﻧﯿﺔ ﺑﮭﺪف ﺗﻌﻈﯿﻢ اﻷرﺑﺎح‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻗﯿﺎم اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺑﺘﻨﻈﯿﻢ أﻋﻤﺎﻟﮭﺎ وھﯿﻜﻠﺘﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺼﻮرة ﺗﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪول اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ )اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺎﯾﻞ( أﺗﺎح ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت أن ﺗﻜﻮن راﻛﺒﺎً ﻣﺠﺎﻧﯿﺎً ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ واﻟﻤﺰاﯾﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺼﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ أي ﻣﻮاﻃﻦ ﺑﺪون ﺗﺤﻤﻞ أي ﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﺗﺸﻮھﺎت ﺿﺎرة ﺑﺎﻷﺳﻮاق وﻧﻘﻞ ﺣﺼﺔ أﻛﺒﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺐء اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻤﻮﻟﯿﻦ اﻷﻓﺮاد ﻣﻤﺎ ﻻ ﯾﻀﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﻟﻜﻨﮫ ﯾﻀﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈن ﺗﻮرط اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ‬
‫ﺿﺎر ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻤﻌﺘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ھﺬا ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ أن ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺗﻜﻮن أﻛﺜﺮ ﺳﺮﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻤﻌﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ وﺿﻌﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ وﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫)‪.(Fisher,2014,p.342‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎً‪ :‬اﻷﺛﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ وﻇﺮوف ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﺆﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮه ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﺆدي اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ إﻟﻰ وﻓﻮرات‬
‫ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ أﺧﺮى ﺗﺆدي أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ إﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ؛‬
‫اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻘﺮار اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬وھﻨﺎ ﺗﻮاﺟﮫ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻌﺮف‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺨﻄﺮ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺮى )‪ (Hutchens & Rego,2013,p2‬أن اﻟﺨﻄﺮ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺘﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺼﺮﻓﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﺼﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ‪ ،‬وﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرة اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮاﺟﮭﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﻟﺘﻨﻮع ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻔﻈﺔ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﺔ وﺟﻮدة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺪم اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻟﺪى اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮاراﺗﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﯾﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ووﺿﻌﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ) ﺿﺎھﺮ‪ ،٢٠١٧،‬ص ‪.(١٣٤‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺰﯾﺪ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻌﺮض ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺘﮭﺎ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺣﯿﺚ أﻛﺪت دراﺳﺔ )‪(Rego & Wilson,2012,p775‬ﻋﻠﻰ أن ھﻨﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ وﺧﻄﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻟﺪى اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أو ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ وﻓﺮ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﯿﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺰﯾﺪ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم اﻟﯿﻘﯿﻦ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﻮاﻧﯿﻦ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﺰاﯾﺎ ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻄﻌﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ واﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻮاﻓﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮن اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻻﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت أﻛﺜﺮ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪––‬‬

‫ﻋﺪواﻧﯿﺔ‪ ،‬اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﺨﻀﻊ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ إﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻏﺮاﻣﺎت وﻋﻘﻮﺑﺎت‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ ) ‪Guenther et al, 2017, p. 116:‬‬
‫‪(Zhou,2016,p.5‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻀﯿﻒ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﺰﯾﺪاً ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﻘﯿﺪ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻘﻠﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ )‪ (Goh et al, 2016, p.1648‬ﺣﯿﺚ أن ھﻨﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺘﯿﻢ‬
‫‪ Opacity‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ اﻹدارة واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻀﺎر‪ .‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺆدي ﻧﻘﺺ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻹﯾﻀﺎﺣﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﮭﻮر إﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺤﻜﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺼﺎﺣﺒﮫ‬
‫وﺟﻮد اﻧﺤﺮاﻓﺎت ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ أم ﻻ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﻮﺷﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وإدارﺗﮫ‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﮭﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹدارة اﻻﻧﺘﮭﺎزﯾﺔ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ وﻣﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻮﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺮار اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ واﻟﻤﺮﺗﻘﺐ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻷﺳﮭﻤﮭﺎ وأداﺋﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ واﻟﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻲ‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺸﯿﺮ دراﺳﺔ ) ‪(Desai & Dharmapala,2009: Yorke et al,2016,p.114‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺎوﻟﺖ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ إﻃﺎر اﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻤﺪﯾﺮﯾﻦ اﻻﻧﺘﮭﺎزﯾﯿﻦ ﯾﻘﻮﻣﻮن‬
‫ﺑﺘﻮﻇﯿﻒ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺴﺒﻞ اﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﻢ ﻣﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻹدارة ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺎﻟﺢ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ وﯾﺒﺪأ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻺدارة ﺑﻤﻌﻨﺎھﺎ اﻟﻮاﺳﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎدة ﻣﻦ ﺣﺮﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﺮف اﻟﻤﻤﻨﻮﺣﺔ ﻟﮭﻢ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻹﯾﺮادات ﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺘﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻹدارة‬
‫اﻻﻧﺘﮭﺎزﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ أن وﺟﻮد أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺸﺠﻊ اﻟﻤﺪﯾﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫إدارة اﻷرﺑﺎح وﯾﻔﺘﺢ أﻣﺎﻣﮭﻢ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻖ إﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻟﻮﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ إﯾﺠﺎﺑﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ إدارة اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺸﯿﺮ دراﺳﺔ )‪ (Santana& Razende,2016,p.1‬أﻧﮫ ﯾﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺑﻨﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ ھﻤﺎ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة‬
‫)ﺻﺮﯾﺤﺔ( ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺮواﺗﺐ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺸﺎرﯾﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﯿﯿﻦ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﻦ وﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة )ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺔ( ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ اﻟﺴﻤﻌﺔ وﻓﻘﺪان ﻣﺼﺪاﻗﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻛﺘﺸﺎف‬
‫ﻗﯿﺎم اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻘﺪان اﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﻋﻼن ﻋﻨﮭﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻌﻘﻮﺑﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺴﻠﻄﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻘﻮم اﻹدارة‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻌﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺟﺮاءات اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ زﯾﺎدة‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﻓﻮﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺟﮭﺔ أﺧﺮى ﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﺆدى أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺳﻠﺒﯿﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﯿﺎم اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺑﺘﻮﺟﯿﮫ اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎراﺗﮭﺎ ﻧﺤﻮ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﻣﻔﻀﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺣﯿﺔ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ أن ﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﻄﻌﻦ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ‬
‫)ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﻔﺎة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺈن أﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﻤﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ أن ﯾﺘﺒﻌﮭﺎ ﻋﺎدة ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوﻋﺎت ﻋﺎدة ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺮة ﻧﺴﺒﯿﺎً‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻦ ﺗﺰﯾﺪ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم اﻟﯿﻘﯿﻦ ﺑﺸﺄن ﻣﺪﻓﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬
‫أو ﺑﺸﺄن اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ )‪.(Guenther et al, 2017, p.116‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫وﻗﺪ أﺷﺎر )‪ (Randolph & Seida. 2007‬إﻟﻰ أن اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺰز ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﻌﺔ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ اﻟﻤﺘﻜﺒﺪة ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ‪،‬‬
‫وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮك ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﻊ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ وﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻔﻮاﺋﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻻً ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺰ وﻗﺼﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷدﻧﻰ ﻟﻠﻀﺮﯾﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ‪.‬‬
‫وﺧﺘﺎﻣﺎً‪ ،‬ﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺔ‬
‫إدارﯾﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻤﯿﺰات وﻓﻮاﺋﺪ ووﻓﻮرات ﺿﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ وﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﯿﻮب وأﺿﺮار وﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫أﺧﺬھﺎ ﺟﻤﯿﻌﺎً ﻓﻲ اﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎر ﻟﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫واﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ وأﺛﺮه ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٣-٥‬اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮاﻓﺮة ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻋﻨﺼﺮﯾﻦ أﺳﺎﺳﯿﯿﻦ ھﻤﺎ‪ :‬اﻟﺪﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ودﻗﺔ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﻮي ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ھﺬه اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ وﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻣﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺒﻌﮫ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﮭﺬﯾﻦ اﻟﻌﻨﺼﺮﯾﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺺ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ دﻗﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﺔ اﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﻌﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ دراﯾﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﺑﺄوﺿﺎع اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت وﺻﻮﻻً اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻛﻔﺎءﺗﮭﻢ ﻋﻨﺪ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮارات‬
‫ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ أن زﯾﺎدة ﺟﻮدة اﻻﻓﺼﺎح اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻨﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ وﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ درﺟﺔ‬
‫اﻻﺧﺘﻼف ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ ادارة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ واﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق‪ ،‬وﯾﺆدي أﯾﻀﺎً اﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت )‪ .(Bhattacharya et al., 2017‬وﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻠﻖ‪ ،‬ﯾﺮى اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺴﺒﺒﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ زاوﯾﺘﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺘﯿﻦ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬واﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼل اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎس ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞٍ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٣-٥‬اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺨﯿﺎرات اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺆدي ﺑﻤﺎ ﻻ ﯾﺪع ﻣﺠﺎﻻً ﻟﻠﺸﻚ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ إذا ﻣﺎ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺑﻤﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻻﻓﺼﺎح اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ اﻧﺨﻔﻀﺖ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫واﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ وارﺗﻔﻌﺖ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺮة أﺧﺮى وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺘﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﻓﻲ ھﺬا‬
‫اﻟﺼﺪد‪ ،‬ﺗﺘﻀﺢ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻣﻈﺎھﺮ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أوﻻً‪ ،‬ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺴﯿﻮﻟﺔ أﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﺆدي اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﻀﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ أن ﯾﺘﻢ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪––‬‬

‫اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﺮأﺳﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﯾﺠﻌﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﯿﺮ دراﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض أﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﺑﻘﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺑﻤﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻻﻓﺼﺎح اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﻲ ﯾﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ‬
‫رﻓﻊ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﺳﯿﻮﻟﺔ أﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ )‪ .(Ajward et al. 2011‬وﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺛﻢ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻮاردة ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت وزﯾﺎدة ﺗﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ أﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﻘﺎﺋﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺳﻮاق أﻃﻮل ﻓﺘﺮة ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫اﻷوﺿﺎع اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ )‪.(Barth et al., 2015, P. 38; Neel, 2017, P. 136‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻷداء‪ ،‬ﺗﺠﺪر اﻻﺷﺎرة اﻟﻰ أن ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ وﺟﻮد اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﺪى ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻷرﺑﺎح‪ ،‬أو أﻧﮭﻢ ﯾﻤﻠﻜﻮن اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆﯾﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻮاردة ﻓﻲ اﻋﻼن‬
‫اﻷرﺑﺎح ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﺣﺼﻮل اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻌﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻮاﺋﺪ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﯾﺆﺳﺲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻟﻌﻮاﺋﺪ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ ﻟﻸﺳﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺴﺎھﻢ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت أﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺤﻘﻖ اﻟﺘﺤﺴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺴﯿﻮﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻮرﺻﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ أن ھﻨﺎك ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺠﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬اﻷوﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻗﺘﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺤﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬واﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻼﻗﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺴﻮق واﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﮭﺎ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﯾﺤﺎول ﻣﺪﯾﺮي اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﺪ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎظ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺳﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ وادارة اﻷرﺑﺎح أﺛﻨﺎء ﻃﺮح أﺳﮭﻢ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺟﺬب‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ واﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ وان ﻛﺎن ﻟﺤﻈﯿﺎً ﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ أﻏﺮاض أﺧﺮى ﺷﺨﺼﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻨﺎ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ‬
‫ﻗﺪرة اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺿﻌﯿﻔﺔ وﯾﺰداد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ )‪.(Shane et al., 2014, P. 211; Neel, 2017, P. 136‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺎً‪ ،‬ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ‪ ،‬ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆدي اﻻﻓﺼﺎح اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺣﺐ‬
‫ﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﻞ ﺣﺎﻓﺰ اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ وﯾﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ وﯾﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل وزﯾﺎدة ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺴﯿﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮق )ﺳﻤﻌﺎن‪،‬‬
‫‪ ،٢٠١٧‬ص ‪ .(٥٣٨‬وﻟﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ھﻲ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮق‬
‫ﻓﻔﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﯾﺮﺗﻔﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻷﺳﻌﺎر اﻷﺳﮭﻢ وﯾﺰداد اﻻﻗﺒﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮاء اﻷﺳﮭﻢ‬
‫وﺗﻮﻋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ دل ذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺪرة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮار ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬
‫)‪.(Choi et al., 2015, P. 229‬‬
‫راﺑﻌﺎً‪ :‬وﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻤﺴﺘﻮى ﺗﻐﻄﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎن رﺑﻂ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺑﻤﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻓﺼﺎح اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﯾﺆدي‬
‫اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻗﯿﺎس ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ‬
‫اﻻﻓﺼﺎح ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ‪(Neel,‬‬
‫)‪ .2017‬وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﺎن دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻷھﻤﯿﺔ ﺑﻤﻜﺎن‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻻﻃﺎر اﻟﻤﻔﺎھﯿﻤﻲ ﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ أن اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩١‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ أن ﺗﺤﺘﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪھﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﻗﺪرة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻨﺺ اﻻﻃﺎر اﻟﻤﻔﺎھﯿﻤﻲ ﻟﻤﺠﻠﺲ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫أن اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ أن ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪھﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﻗﺪرة ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ وﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻜﻤﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ أن ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺣﻮل ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ )‪ .(Atwood, et al., 2012‬وﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ أن ﺗﺰﯾﺪ دﻗﺔ ﺗﻮﻗﻌﺎت‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﺸﺄن اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺔ ﺣﺎل اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﺢ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ وزﯾﺎدة اﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ واﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫)‪ .(Choi, et al., 2013‬وﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﺰداد ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ وﺗﻐﻄﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺑﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻻت ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻋﻄﺎء اﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮاء ﻓﻲ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻷﺳﮭﻢ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻗﺪرة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮار‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٢-٣-٥‬اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ‪:‬‬
‫وﻓﻘﺎً ﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ اﻟﺬاﺗﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺪي اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫وﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ أن أھﺪاف ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ أھﺪاف ﻣﻌﺪﯾﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻟﮭﺬا‬
‫ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﻌﻰ ادارة اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺟﺎھﺪة اﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﻈﯿﻢ ھﺪﻓﮭﺎ وﻣﻨﻔﻌﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺎت ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻓﺎﺋﺾ وﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ ﻣﺮﻛﺰھﺎ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﯾﺮﻏﺐ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﺤﻮزﺗﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﯾﺒﺪو اﻟﺘﻌﺎرض ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ داﺧﻞ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ )‪:(Fatmasari,2011‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻟﺘﻌﺎرض ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة واﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻨﮫ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺄﺻﺤﺎب ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﻠﻜﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺎرض ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة وﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺪات واﻷﺳﮭﻢ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻨﮫ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﻛﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺮأس اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮض‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻗﺪرة اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻔﺾ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻤﻤﻠﻮك وزﯾﺎدة ﺛﺮوة اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺧﻼل ﺗﻘﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﺤﻤﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮون‪ ،‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻦ أھﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وھﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪم ﻗﺪرة ھﺆﻻء اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻖ ﻟﻠﻌﻮاﺋﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎراﺗﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻟﻌﺪم ﻛﻔﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ وﻻ ﺳﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ ،‬وھﺬه اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺨﻠﻖ اﻟﺪاﻓﻊ ﻟﺪى ھﺆﻻء‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻧﺤﻮ اﻟﻤﻄﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺑﻌﺎﺋﺪ اﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﻋﻮﺿﺎً ﻋﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮﺟﯿﮫ أﻣﻮاﻟﮭﻢ ﻧﺤﻮ اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻻ ﯾﺘﻌﺮض ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ‪ ،‬وﺗﺰداد ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﺠﮫ ادارة اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ أﺻﻮﻟﮭﺎ ﻋﻦ ﻃﺮﯾﻖ اﻻﻗﺘﺮاض‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺎرض ﺑﯿﻦ ﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ وﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺪات ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ھﯿﻜﻞ اﻻﯾﺮادات أو ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﺘﺤﻤﻠﮫ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺤﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺪات ﯾﺤﺼﻠﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﺋﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ أﻗﺴﺎط اﻟﺪﯾﻮن‪ ،‬ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﯾﺤﺼﻞ ﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﺪاد اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻖ ﻟﺤﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺪات‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺘﺤﻤﻠﮭﺎ ﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﺴﻨﺪات ﺗﻜﻮن أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﺤﻤﻠﮭﺎ ﺣﻤﻠﺔ اﻷﺳﮭﻢ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻻدارة ﻓﻲ‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ )‪.(Battacharya ,2011‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٢‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆدي ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺣﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ‬
‫ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل واﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﻘﺪرة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﺰﯾﺪاً ﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻻﻓﺼﺎح‬
‫ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﺗﺪﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ واﻟﺤﻔﺎظ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤﺎل دون زﯾﺎدة ‪(Drake, et al.,‬‬
‫)‪.2020‬‬
‫وﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ أن ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ دﻓﻊ اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺮﺗﻘﺒﯿﻦ إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻻﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ )اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ( ‪ ،Adverse selection‬وﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ أﺧﺮى ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ اﻻﺧﻼﻗﯿﺔ ‪Moral hazard‬ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻼك واﻻدارة‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ اﻷﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫واﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎً ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺠﻮة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺒﺒﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺗﻠﺨﯿﺺ ذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪‬‬

‫ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﻮﯾﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫ﺟﻮدة اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻓﺠﻮة‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ‬

‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺪرة ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ‬

‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪ :(١‬ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻤﺼﺪر‪ :‬اﻋﺪاد اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫‪ :٤-٥‬اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺎول اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻨﻈﺮي ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ وﯾﺘﻀﻤﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﮭﺪف إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻤﺨﺎﻃﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻻت اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ اﺳﻘﺎﻃﺎً ﻟﻤﺎ ﺟﺎء ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻨﻈﺮي ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ وﻻ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﺎم ﺑﮭﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫دون اﺗﺒﺎع اﺟﺮاءات ﻣﻨﮭﺠﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺠﺐ اﻟﻤﺮور ﺑﮭﺎ واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺠﺐ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﮭﺪف اﻟﻮﺻﻮل إﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺨﻼص ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘﻮد إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺄﻛﯿﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺔ اﻟﻔﺮوض‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٣‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ أو رﻓﻀﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ ذﻟﻚ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻌﺮض ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٤-٥‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ وأدوات اﻟﻘﯿﺎس‪:‬‬
‫أ‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻗﯿﺎﺳﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ;‪(Hanlon& Heitzman, 2010‬‬
‫)‪:Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎت‬ ‫ﻃﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻘﯿﺎس‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺮﺑﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﯿﺲ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺪل‬ ‫‪Current‬‬
‫ﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرة اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‬ ‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬ ‫‪ETR‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺠﻨﺐ وﺗﺄﺟﯿﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﺧﻼل‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﺴﻨﺔ‬
‫ب‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﻨﺪ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻷرﺑﺎح واﻟﺤﻔﺎظ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫ﻣﻌﻘﻮل ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﯿﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻷﻃﺮاف ذوي اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻻﻃﻤﺌﻨﺎن ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎراﺗﮭﻢ‪،‬‬
‫وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻗﯿﺎس اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ اﻋﺘﻤﺎداً ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ وﻻ ﺳﯿﻤﺎ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ‬
‫زﯾﻤﺒﻮﻛﺴﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ وھﻮ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺘﻔﻖ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻛﺎدﯾﻤﯿﯿﻦ واﻟﮭﯿﺌﺎت اﻟﻤﮭﻨﯿﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﺎس ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪: (Sayari et al., 2017, p. 48‬‬
‫= ‪) ٤،٥١٣-] ٤،٣٣٦-‬ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻰ اﻷﺻﻮل([‬
‫‪) ٥،٦٧٩‬إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻰ اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت إﺟﻤﺎﻟﻰ اﻷﺻﻮل( ‪) ٠،٠٠٤‬اﻷﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﺘﺪاوﻟﺔ اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺪاوﻟﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺟـ‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﯿﺰة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﮭﺎ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫)اﻻدارة( ﻋﻦ اﻷﻃﺮاف اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻗﯿﺎس ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺪى أو ﻓﺮق اﻟﺴﻌﺮ )‪ (Bid – Ask Spread‬اﻟﻤﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺘﺪاول اﻷﺳﮭﻢ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ وﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﻌﺮض‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﺳﺘﺒﺪاﻟﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ ﺳﻌﺮ إﻏﻼق وﺳﻌﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺢ ﻟﻠﺴﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﯿﺪة ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮي‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٤‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫د‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺤﺎﻛﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺣﺼﺮ أھﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮﻏﺐ اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫رﺑﻤﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻘﺮارات اﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻤﺜﻞ أھﻤﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ واﻗﻊ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ‪(Kalbitz& Eichfelder, 2016; Bayar,‬‬
‫& ‪et al., 2018; Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019; Drake, et al., 2020; Cooper‬‬
‫)‪ Nguyen, 2020‬ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺮﻗﺎﺑﯿﺔ )اﻟﺤﺎﻛﻤﺔ(‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺎً ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎرﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﻹﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻷﺻﻮل‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺮاﻓﻌ ﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿ ﺔ ﻟﻠ ﺸﺮﻛﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻘﺎﺳ ﺔ ﺑﺈﺟﻤ ﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣ ﺎت ﻣﻘ ﺴﻮﻣﺔ ﻋﻠ ﻰ إﺟﻤ ﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺣﻘﻮق اﻟﻤﻠﻜﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ وﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﺎﻓﺌﮭﺎ اﻟﻰ اﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻷﺻﻮل ‪.‬‬ ‫‪CASH‬‬
‫وھﻲ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻷﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﺘﺪاوﻟﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻻﻟﺘﺰاﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺪاوﻟﺔ ‪.‬‬ ‫‪CA_CL‬‬
‫‪ :٢-٤-٥‬ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ وﻋﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮي ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎم ‪ ٢٠١٤‬اﻟﻰ ﻋﺎم ‪ ،٢٠١٩‬وﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﺪد ‪ ٢٤٤‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ وﯾﺮﺟﻊ اﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻋﺎم ‪ ٢٠١٣‬ﻟﺘﺠﺎوز ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺮﻛﻮد اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎدي واﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد آﺛﺎرھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ ﺗﺠﺎوز أﺛﺮ اﻟﻈﺮوف اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﺮت ﺑﮭﺎ اﻟﺒﻼد ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‪ ،‬وﻛﻤﺎ ھﻲ اﻟﺤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫)ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك‪ ،‬ﺷﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﺘﺄﻣﯿﻦ( ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻤﺎ ﺗﺘﺴﻢ ﺑﮫ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺆﺳﺴﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺗﺸﻐﯿﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﺧﺘﻼﻓًﺎ ﺟﻮھﺮﯾًﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪ ،‬اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﻌﻞ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻢ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻀﺎﺑﻄﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻏﯿﺮ ذي ﻣﻌﻨﻰ‪ ،‬ھﺬا ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺧﻀﻮﻋﮭﺎ ﻟﻘﻮاﻧﯿﻦ وﻗﻮاﻋﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻤﯿﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد ‪ ٤٤‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ وﺑﻨﻚ‪ .‬وﺣﻔﺎﻇﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺠﺎﻧﺲ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻗﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد ﻋﺪد ‪ ٣‬ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎت ﻣﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ )رﻋﺎﯾﺔ ﺻﺤﯿﺔ وأدوﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﺳﯿﺎﺣﺔ وﺗﺮﻓﯿﮫ‪ ،‬وﻣﻮزﻋﻮن‬
‫وﺗﺠﺎرة ﺗﺠﺰﺋﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ اﺳﺘﺒﻌﺎد اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺠﻠﺖ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ ٨‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ اﺗﻔﺎﻗﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ أدوات ﻗﯿﺎس اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وھﺬه اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت ھﻲ )اﻋﻼم‪ ،‬واﺗﺼﺎﻻت‪،‬‬
‫وﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﯿﺎ‪ ،‬وﻏﺎز وﺑﺘﺮول‪ ،‬وﻣﺮاﻓﻖ(‪ ،‬وﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻋﺪد ‪ ١٣٧‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﺠﻞ‬
‫‪ ٨٢٢‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة )‪ ١٣٧‬ﺷﺮﻛﺔ × ‪ ٦‬ﺳﻨﻮات(‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺟﺮاءات ﻋﻠﻰ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﻰ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻠﺨﯿﺼﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٥‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٢‬اﺟﺮاءات اﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‬

‫ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﺳﻨﻮﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﯿﺎن‬
‫‪٨٢٢‬‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺠﻢ اﻟﻤﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ‬
‫‪١٢٩‬‬ ‫)‪ (-‬اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻔﻘﻮدة‬
‫‪٣٥‬‬ ‫)‪ (-‬اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺸﺎذة واﻟﻤﺘﻄﺮﻓﺔ‬
‫‪٦٥٨‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ :٣-٤-٥‬اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻷﻏﺮاض ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﺳﺘﻌﺎن اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ )‪(SPSS & Amos‬‬
‫اﻻﺻﺪار اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ واﻟﻌﺸﺮﯾﻦ‪ ،‬وﻷﻏﺮاض اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺗﻢ اﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‪ :‬اﻻﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻮﺻﻔﯿﺔ )‪،(Descriptive Statistics‬‬
‫وﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﺮﺳﻮن )‪ ،،(Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient‬وأﺳﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪد )‪.،(Multiple regression Analysis‬‬
‫‪ :٤-٤-٥‬اﻻﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻮﺻﻔﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣ ﺚ ﻓ ﻲ ﺿ ﻮء ﻧﺘ ﺎﺋﺞ اﻻﺣ ﺼﺎءات اﻟﻮﺻ ﻔﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﯿﻨ ﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳ ﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﺿ ﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠ ﺪول‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ اﻻﺷﺎرة اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٣‬اﻻﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻮﺻﻔﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫‪Std.‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪Mean‬‬ ‫‪Median‬‬ ‫‪Minimum‬‬ ‫‪Maximum‬‬
‫‪Deviation‬‬
‫‪Current ETR‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪0.38‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪5.15‬‬ ‫‪-0.14‬‬ ‫‪6.95‬‬
‫‪Z-score‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪4.86‬‬ ‫‪4.51‬‬ ‫‪7.58‬‬ ‫‪-78.95‬‬ ‫‪125.77‬‬
‫‪Bid_Ask‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬
‫‪65.03‬‬ ‫‪3.07‬‬ ‫‪525.38‬‬ ‫‪-7.16‬‬ ‫‪96.9815‬‬
‫‪Spread‬‬
‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪8.20‬‬ ‫‪8.66‬‬ ‫‪2.23‬‬ ‫‪4.53‬‬ ‫‪11.83‬‬
‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪1.35‬‬ ‫‪0.73‬‬ ‫‪8.32‬‬ ‫‪-91.26‬‬ ‫‪181.26‬‬
‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.14‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬
‫‪CA_CL‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬ ‫‪4.66‬‬ ‫‪1.36‬‬ ‫‪15.59‬‬ ‫‪2.23‬‬ ‫‪210.30‬‬
‫‪Valid N‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬
‫)‪(listwise‬‬

‫ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (٣‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﺮﺿﮭﺎ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ Current ETR‬اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻣ ﺎ ﯾﻌ ﺎدل‬
‫‪ ،%٣٨‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻘﺘﺮب ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﯿﺮه ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ﻣﺜﻞ ‪(Kim et al,2016; Lestari‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٦‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫‪and Wardhahi,2015; Dhawan, et al., 2020; Fernandez Rodriguez, et‬‬

‫)‪al., 2020‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Z-Score‬ﻣﺎ ﯾﻘﺎرب ‪ ٤٫٨٦‬وھﻲ‬
‫أﯾﻀﺎً ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺘﺪﻟﺔ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻋﺪم ﺗﺤﯿﺰ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻧﺤﻮ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺜﺮة ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎً ﻓﻀﻼً ﻋﻦ اﻗﺘﺮاﺑﮭ ﺎ‬
‫ﻣ ﻦ ﻧﻈﺎﺋﺮھ ﺎ ﺑﺪراﺳ ﺎت ﻣﺜ ﻞ ;‪(Ajward et al., 2010; Sidebothain, 2012‬‬
‫‪Swanson, 2014; Choi et al., 2015; Neel, 2017; Bhattacharya et al.,‬‬
‫)‪.2017; Prowse, 2017‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﺒﻠ ﻎ اﻟﻮﺳ ﻂ اﻟﺤ ﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿ ﺮ ‪ Bid ask spread‬اﻟﺨ ﺎص ﺑﻤ ﺴﺘﻮى ﻋ ﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛ ﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎت‬
‫‪ ٦٥٫٠٣‬وھ ﻲ ﻗﯿﻤ ﺔ ﺗﻌﺒ ﺮ ﻋ ﻦ اﻟﺘﺒ ﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎﺗﻲ ﻣ ﻦ ﺧ ﻼل اﻟﺘﺤﺮﻛ ﺎت اﻟ ﺴﻌﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻸﺳ ﮭﻢ‬
‫وﻋﻮاﺋ ﺪھﺎ‪ ،‬وﺗﻘﺘ ﺮب ھ ﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﻧﻈﯿﺮﺗﮭ ﺎ ﺑﻌ ﺪة دراﺳ ﺎت ﻣﺜ ﻞ ‪(Blaylock, et al.,‬‬
‫)‪2012; Hoi, et al., 2013; Davis, et al., 2016‬‬
‫واﺳﺘﻨﺎداً اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﮭﺎ واﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻮﺻﻔﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﺪى ﺗﻘﺎرﺑﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻷﺧﺮى وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ اﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٥-٤-٥‬ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﯿﺪة‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮي‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٤‬ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﺮﺳﻮن ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‬
‫‪Current‬‬ ‫‪Bid_Ask‬‬
‫‪Variables‬‬ ‫‪Z-score‬‬ ‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪CA_CL‬‬
‫‪ETR‬‬ ‫‪Spread‬‬
‫‪Current ETR‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Z-score‬‬ ‫‪-.024‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Bid_Ask‬‬
‫‪.022‬‬ ‫‪-.028‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Spread‬‬
‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪.013‬‬ ‫**‪.196‬‬ ‫‪.008‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪-.013‬‬ ‫‪.022‬‬ ‫‪.007‬‬ ‫‪.048‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪-.041‬‬ ‫**‪.127‬‬ ‫*‪-.093‬‬ ‫**‪.183‬‬ ‫‪.039‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫**‬
‫‪CA_CL‬‬ ‫‪-.010‬‬ ‫‪-.103‬‬ ‫‪.070‬‬ ‫‪-.006‬‬ ‫‪-.033‬‬ ‫‪-.006‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫وﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ وﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺑﻨﻤﺎذج اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ رأي ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻻزدواج‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻗﯿﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻘﯿﺎس ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ VIF‬ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﯿﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻮاﺟﺪ‬
‫أﯾﺎً ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ اﻻزدواج اﻟﺨﻄﻲ‪ .‬وﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪(٤‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٧‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ أﯾﺎً ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ أو اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ أﻧﮫ ﻻ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ارﺗﺒﺎط أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ‪ ،٠٫٨‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﺻﺤﺔ اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺒﺪﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٦-٤-٥‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻻت اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻧﻄﻼﻗﺎً ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ وﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ أدوات اﻟﻘﯿﺎس ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﻨﺎء‬
‫ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎدﻻت اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ )‪ (Structural Equation Model‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Go. Con = β0 + β1Current ETR + β2 Size + β3 Lev + β4 Cash‬‬
‫‪+ β5 CA_CL + .‬‬
‫‪Info_Assy = β0 + β1 Current ETR + β2 Size + β3 Lev + β4‬‬
‫‪Cash + β5 CA_CL + .‬‬
‫‪Go. Con = β0 + β1 Info_Assy + β2 Size + β3 Lev + β4 Cash +‬‬
‫‪β5 CA_CL + .‬‬
‫‪ :٧-٤-٥‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﮭﺪف اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻛﻞٍ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ واﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﺗﺒﺎع أﺳﻠﻮب اﻻﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺪد وذﻟﻚ ﺑﮭﺪف‬
‫اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻷول واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ واﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪ .‬وﻗﺪ اﻋﺘﻤﺪ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ اﺟﺮاء اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄة )‪ (Firm Fixed Effects‬ﻋﻨﺪ اﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار وھﻲ‬
‫اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎع اﻟﺬي ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮫ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة أو اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة ﺑﺎﻹﻓﺼﺎح‬
‫ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ آﺛﺎر اﻻرﺗﺒﺎط اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ )‪ .(١‬وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٧-٤-٥‬ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻷول ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻨﺒﺄ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻷول ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ )‪) (Z-Score‬ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬واﻋﺘﻤﺎداً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ واﺗﺠﺎھﺎت وﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺒﻨﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﻤﺮاﺣﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﺜﻼث ﺗﻢ اﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﺿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪.(٥‬‬
‫وﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﺿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (٥‬اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %٦٤‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﻘﺎرب ﻣﻊ ﻧﻈﯿﺮه ﺑﺪراﺳﺎت ‪(See: Kim et al,2016; Lestari and‬‬

‫‪ 1‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻵﺛﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ آﺛﺎر اﻟﺘﺤﯿﺰ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺣﯿﺚ أن ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﺗﺴﺠﻠﮭﺎ اﺣﺪى اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂت ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺘﻲ رﺑﻤﺎ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ أو ﻻ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻤﺎ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺴﺎھﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻧﻮع‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﯿﺰ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت ﺗﺸﻐﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪(Torres-Reyna,‬‬
‫)‪ .2007‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺎﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﻟﻜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﺑﺎﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﺮاﻋﺎة اﻷﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎرﯾﺔ اﻟﺤﺼﯿﻨﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻨﻘﻮدﯾﺔ )‪ (Clustered Robust Standard Errors‬ﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ أي ﺗﺠﻤﻌﺎت ﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ أي ﺗﺠﻤﻌﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺂت‪.‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٨‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫)‪ ،Wardhahi,2015‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ )‪ (Z-Score‬ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ .%٦٤‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎن ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮫ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻜﻔﺎءة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﺔ ﻓﯿﮫ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض‬
‫اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻷول ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٥‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻷول‬
‫)‪Dependent Variable: Continuity (Z-Score‬‬
‫‪Variable‬‬ ‫‪Coef.‬‬ ‫‪t-stat.‬‬ ‫‪Sig.‬‬
‫‪Percentile‬‬ ‫‪0.128‬‬ ‫‪0.168‬‬ ‫‪0.867‬‬
‫‪Current ETR‬‬ ‫‪-0.165‬‬ ‫‪-4.265‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪-0.051‬‬ ‫‪-0.567‬‬ ‫‪0.571‬‬
‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪-0.002‬‬ ‫‪-0.090‬‬ ‫‪0.928‬‬
‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪2.808‬‬ ‫‪1.876‬‬ ‫‪0.061‬‬
‫‪CA_CL‬‬ ‫‪0.014‬‬ ‫‪1.106‬‬ ‫‪0.269‬‬
‫‪Firm Fixed Effects‬‬ ‫‪Included‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬
‫‪Adj.R2‬‬ ‫‪64.00%‬‬
‫)‪VIF (Max‬‬ ‫‪1.037‬‬
‫وﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﺑﻨﻤﻮذج اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ‪ Current ETR‬اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬
‫اﺷﺎرة ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ أن )‪ ،(t-stat.= -4.265 > 2; Sig.= 0.000< 0.05‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ وﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺳﺘﺆدي اﻟﻰ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆدي زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬أي أﻧﮫ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺗﺘﻔﻖ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺎت ) ‪Kim et‬‬
‫)‪ al,2016; Bayar, et al., 2018; Heitzman & Ogneva, 2019‬واﻟﻲ‪٢٠١٦،‬؛‬
‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ‪ (٢٠١٩‬وﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻟﻢ ﯾﻮاﺟﮫ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ أي ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻻزدواج اﻟﺨﻄﻲ‬
‫)‪ (Multicollinearity‬ﺣﯿﺚ أن أﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪(Variance Inflation‬‬
‫)‪ Factor‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ )‪.(VIF = 1.037‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٥٩٩‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫وﺗﺄﺳﯿﺴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ رﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﻌﺪم اﻷول ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ وﻗﺒﻮل‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻓﺮص اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٢-٧-٤-٥‬ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻨﺒﺄ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻘﯿﺴﺎً ﺑﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻻﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﺑﯿﻦ أﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻌﺮض واﻟﻄﻠﺐ )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‪.‬‬
‫وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﺿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (٦‬ارﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻘﻮة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫‪ %٦٧٫٤‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻘﺘﺮب ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﯿﺮه ﺑﺪراﺳﺎت & ‪(See: Watson, 2015; Chen‬‬
‫)‪ ،Lin,2017; Balalkrishnan, et al. 2019‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫‪ .%٦٧٫٤‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎن ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮫ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻜﻔﺎءة‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﺔ ﻓﯿﮫ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ :(٦‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫)‪Dependent Variable: Information Asymmetric (Bid Ask Price‬‬
‫‪Variable‬‬ ‫‪Coef.‬‬ ‫‪t-stat.‬‬ ‫‪Sig.‬‬
‫‪Percentile‬‬ ‫‪71.976‬‬ ‫‪1.640‬‬ ‫‪0.102‬‬
‫‪Current ETR‬‬ ‫‪83.645‬‬ ‫‪37.547‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪-2.667‬‬ ‫‪-0.510‬‬ ‫‪0.610‬‬
‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪0.349‬‬ ‫‪0.253‬‬ ‫‪0.801‬‬
‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪-136.517‬‬ ‫‪-1.583‬‬ ‫‪0.114‬‬
‫‪CA_CL‬‬ ‫‪-0.549‬‬ ‫‪-0.746‬‬ ‫‪0.456‬‬
‫‪Firm Fixed Effects‬‬ ‫‪Included‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬
‫‪Adj.R2‬‬ ‫‪67.40%‬‬
‫)‪VIF (Max‬‬ ‫‪1.037‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٠‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫وﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﺑﻨﻤﻮذج اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬
‫ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ‪ Current ETR‬اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬
‫اﺷﺎرة ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ أن )‪ ،(t-stat.= 37.547 > 2; Sig.= 0.000 < 0.05‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ وﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺳﺘﺆدي اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻻدارة‬
‫واﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﺗﺘﻔﻖ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻣﻊ دراﺳﺎت ‪(Watson, 2015; Chen‬‬
‫)‪ .& Lin,2017; Balalkrishnan, et al. 2019‬وﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻟﻢ ﯾﻮاﺟﮫ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ أي‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻻزدواج اﻟﺨﻄﻲ )‪ (Multicollinearity‬ﺣﯿﺚ أن أﻗﺼﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻀﺨﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ )‪ (Variance Inflation Factor‬ﺗﺒﻠﻎ )‪.(VIF = 1.037‬‬
‫وﺗﺄﺳﯿﺴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ رﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﻌﺪم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ وﻗﺒﻮل‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم‬
‫ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٣-٧-٤-٥‬ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻨﺒﺄ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ( ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ )‪) (Z-Score‬ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ(‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﺎم اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ ،‬وﺗﻢ اﻟﺘﻮﺻﻞ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﺿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪(٧‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٧‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫)‪Dependent Variable: (Z-Score‬‬
‫‪Variable‬‬ ‫‪Coef.‬‬ ‫‪t-stat.‬‬ ‫‪Sig.‬‬
‫‪Percentile‬‬ ‫‪-0.490‬‬ ‫‪-0.445‬‬ ‫‪0.656‬‬
‫‪Info_Assy‬‬ ‫‪0.011‬‬ ‫‪2.132‬‬ ‫‪0.033‬‬
‫‪Size‬‬ ‫‪0.566‬‬ ‫‪4.326‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪Lev‬‬ ‫‪-0.034‬‬ ‫‪-0.129‬‬ ‫‪0.897‬‬
‫‪CASH‬‬ ‫‪7.567‬‬ ‫‪3.573‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬
‫‪CA_CL‬‬ ‫‪-0.038‬‬ ‫‪-0.977‬‬ ‫‪0.329‬‬
‫‪Firm Fixed Effects‬‬ ‫‪Included‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪658‬‬
‫‪Adj.R2‬‬ ‫‪59.00%‬‬
‫)‪VIF (Max‬‬ ‫‪1.038‬‬

‫وﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮة اﻟﺘﻔﺴﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %٥٩‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ )‪ (Z-Score‬ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ .%٥٩‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎن ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻﻧﺤﺪار ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮫ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠١‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﻜﻔﺎءة ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﺔ ﻓﯿﮫ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض‬
‫اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﺑﻨﻤﻮذج اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮوض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ‪ Info_Assy‬اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﯾﺤﻤﻞ اﺷﺎرة‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ أن )‪ (t-stat.= 2.132 > 2; Sig.= 0.033 < 0.05‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ‬
‫وﺟﻮد ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻃﺮدﯾﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺳﯿﺆدي اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﺆدي زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‪ -‬اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ‪ -‬اﻟﻰ اﻧﺨﻔﺎض ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‪ ،‬أي أﻧﮫ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺗﺄﺳﯿﺴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﻚ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ رﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﻌﺪم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ وﻗﺒﻮل اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ .‬وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ :٨-٤-٥‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر )اﻷﺛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ( ﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻻت اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :١-٨-٤-٥‬ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮض اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ھﻮ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻻﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﮭﺪف اﻟﻰ اﻟﻜﺸﻒ‬
‫ﻋﻦ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة وﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة‪ ،‬وﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ وﺟﻮد ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ وﺳﯿﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‪ .‬وﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﺼﺪد‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (٨‬ﻋﺪم ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻛﺎ‪ ٢‬وﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ دﻻﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺟﯿﺪ ﺟﺪاً وﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﻒء وﻓﻌﺎل‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٨‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻛﺎ‪ ٢‬ﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ‪CMIN‬‬

‫‪Model‬‬ ‫‪NPAR‬‬ ‫‪CMIN‬‬ ‫‪DF‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪CMIN/DF‬‬

‫‪Default Model‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪3.155‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪.633‬‬ ‫‪1.576‬‬
‫‪Saturated Model‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪Independence Model‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪123.462‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪12.346‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (٩‬ارﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﯿﺚ أن ﻣﺆﺷﺮات ﺟﻮدة‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﺎﺑﻘﺔ )‪ (GFI & AGFI‬ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ أن ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ %٩٠‬اﻟﻰ ‪ %٩٥‬ﺣﯿﺚ أﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫‪ %٩٠‬وﺟﯿﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ %٩٥‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ اﻗﺘﺮﺑﺖ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ازدادت درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬وﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ أن درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺗﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %٩١٫٥ ،%٩٤٫٢‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ وھﻲ درﺟﺔ ﻣﻤﺘﺎزة ﻟﻤﻼءﻣﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٢‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(٩‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪RMR, GFI‬‬

‫‪Model‬‬ ‫‪RMR GFI AGFI‬‬ ‫‪PGFI‬‬
‫‪Default Model‬‬ ‫‪.023‬‬ ‫‪.942‬‬ ‫‪.915‬‬ ‫‪.115‬‬
‫‪Saturated Model‬‬ ‫‪.000 1.000‬‬
‫‪Independence Model‬‬ ‫‪.057‬‬ ‫‪.854‬‬ ‫‪.685‬‬ ‫‪.543‬‬
‫وﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (١٠‬أن اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺟﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﯾﻘﺘﺮب ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺸﯿﺮ أﯾﻀﺎً اﻟﻰ ارﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻰ ﺣﺪ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(١٠‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ درﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﻼءﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ‪Baseline Comparison‬‬
‫‪NFI‬‬ ‫‪RFI‬‬ ‫‪IFI‬‬ ‫‪TLI‬‬
‫‪Model‬‬ ‫‪CFI‬‬
‫‪Delta1‬‬ ‫‪rho1 Delta2‬‬ ‫‪Rho2‬‬
‫‪Default Model‬‬ ‫‪.936‬‬ ‫‪.928‬‬ ‫‪.996‬‬ ‫‪.998 1.000‬‬
‫‪Saturated Model‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬
‫‪Independence Model .000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000 .000‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﺗﺸﯿﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺬر اﻟﺘﺮﺑﯿﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺄ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ارﺗﻔﺎع درﺟﺔ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﯿﺚ أﻧﮭﺎ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ %٥‬وھﻮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (١١‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(١١‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺬر اﻟﺘﺮﺑﯿﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺄ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ‪RMSEA‬‬
‫‪Model‬‬ ‫‪RMSEA LO 90 HI 90 PCLOSE‬‬
‫‪Default Model‬‬ ‫‪.020‬‬ ‫‪.001‬‬ ‫‪.086‬‬ ‫‪.678‬‬
‫‪Independence Model‬‬ ‫‪.196‬‬ ‫‪.148‬‬ ‫‪.202‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬
‫وﻋﻼوة ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﯾﻮﺿﺢ اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (١٢‬اﻟﺤﺪود اﻟﻘﺼﻮى ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻋﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج داﻻً‪ ،‬وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﮭﺎ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻏﯿﺮ دال‪ ،‬وﺗﺘﻤﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺪود اﻟﻘﺼﻮى ﻓﻲ‬
‫‪ ١٢٢٦‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ ١٤٥٨ ،%٥‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪.%١‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول رﻗﻢ )‪ :(١٢‬اﻟﺤﺪود اﻟﻘﺼﻮى ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ دﻻﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫‪Model‬‬ ‫‪HOELTER .05‬‬ ‫‪HOELTER .01‬‬
‫‪Default Model‬‬ ‫‪1226‬‬ ‫‪1458‬‬
‫‪Independence Model‬‬ ‫‪236‬‬ ‫‪368‬‬
‫وﺗﺄﺳﯿﺴﺎً ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﺮض اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ( واﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ )ﻛﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ( ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ‬
‫وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬وﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﺼﺪد‪ ،‬ﯾﺘﻨﺒﺄ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﺑﺄن ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﺳﯿﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻮﺟﻮد ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻛﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻈﺮاً ﻷن ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﺮﺿﮭﺎ ﺗﺸﯿﺮ اﻟﻰ أن اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ أن ﯾﻨﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ وﺟﻮد اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻟﻌﺪم اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﻤﺎ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻠﻖ‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٣‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻋﺮض ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ﻟﻶﺛﺎر اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة وﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (١٢‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول )‪ :(١٢‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ *‪0.293* -0.352* 0.645‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫وﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻟﺪى اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺠﺪول )‪ (١٢‬ﻣﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻻﻧﺨﻔﺎض ‪) ٠٫٣٥٢‬وھﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ( وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻌﻨﻮي‪ ،‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻌﻨﻲ رﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﻌﺪم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻟﻠﺪراﺳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻗﺒﻮل اﻟﻔﺮض اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﯾﻨﺨﻔﺾ اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬وﺗﺘﻔﻖ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت ‪(See: Wahab & Halond,‬‬
‫;‪2012; Chen et al., 2014; Ayers et al., 2018 Jackson, 2015‬‬
‫);‪.Balakrishnan, et al., 2019; Dhawan, et al., 2020‬‬
‫وأﺧﯿﺮاً‪ ،‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ وﺿﻊ اﻟﺘﺼﻮر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻇﻞ وﺟﻮد اﻟﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺷﻜﻞ )‪ :(٢‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺪور اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ وﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫‪   ‬‬
‫‪ :١-٦‬اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻣﻦ اﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة وﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ وﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٤‬‬
 ‫‪––‬‬

‫‪ ‬وﺟﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬وﺟﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬أي أن‬
‫زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ زﯾﺎدة ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬وﺟﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻃﺮدي ﻣﻌﻨﻮي ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻌﺴﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬أي أن زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻧﺨﻔﺎض اﻟﺘﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻻﯾﺠﺎﺑﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮص اﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮارﯾﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻂ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪.‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮؤى اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﻤﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﮭﯿﺌﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﮭﻨﯿﺔ واﻷﻛﺎدﯾﻤﯿﺔ واﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ‪ ،‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺎﺣﺚ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﺼﺪد أن ﯾﻮﺻﻰ ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻻھﺘﻤﺎم ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﺧﻄﺔ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ؛ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﺘﻀﻤﻦ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻔﺾ اﻟﻌﺐء اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وزﯾﺎدة اﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎت اﻟﻨﻘﺪﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ دون أن‬
‫ﯾﺆدي ذﻟﻚ إﻟﻰ اﻹﺿﺮار ﺑﻤﺼﺎﻟﺤﮭﺎ اﻷﺧﺮى أو ﺑﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺠﮭﺎت اﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﺮ دراﺳﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﺳﺘﻐﻼل ھﺬه اﻟﺘﺸﺮﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت ﻣﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻔﻌﯿﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﺣﻮﻛﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت وﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ وﺗﻘﯿﯿﻤﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ھﯿﺌﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻮق رأس اﻟﻤﺎل ﻟﻀﻤﺎن ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ وﻏﯿﺎب ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻹدارة‬
‫واﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﯿﻦ‪ ،‬اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﻌﺪواﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻹدارة ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﯿﺪة ﻓﻲ أﺳﻮاق رأس اﻟﻤﺎل أن ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻹﻓﺼﺎح اﻻﺧﺘﯿﺎري ﻋﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﯾﺎت اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﺘﺨﻔﯿﺾ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻟﺪى اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﺋﻢ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﯾﻨﺒﻐﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب واﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﻢ اﻟﻤﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﺑﻮﺿﻮح‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٥‬‬
 ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪  ‬‬
‫أوﻻً‪ :‬ﻣﺮاﺟﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﻛﻲ‪ ،‬ﻧﺮﻓﺎﻧﺎ أﻣﯿﻦ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‪ .(٢٠١٦) .‬ﻗﯿ ﺎس أﺛ ﺮ اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﺗﻌﻈ ﯿﻢ ﻗﯿﻤ ﺔ اﻟﻤﻨ ﺸﺄة –‬
‫دراﺳﺔ ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬رﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪-‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﯿﻦ ﺷﻤﺲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻌ ﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏ ﺎدة ﻣﺤﻤ ﺪ إﺑ ﺮاھﯿﻢ‪ .(٢٠١٧) .‬دور ﺟ ﻮدة اﻷرﺑ ﺎح اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳ ﺒﯿﺔ ﻓ ﻲ اﻟﺤ ﺪ ﻣ ﻦ ﻋ ﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛ ﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣ ﺎت وأﺛﺮھ ﺎ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﺗﻜﻠﻔ ﺔ رأس اﻟﻤ ﺎل‪-‬دراﺳ ﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿ ﺔ‪ .‬رﺳ ﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟ ﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿ ﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪-‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺼﻮرة‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻤﻌﺎن‪ ،‬أﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺷﺎﻛﺮ‪ .(٢٠١٧) .‬ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﺗﺠ ﺎه اﻟ ﺴﺒﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗ ﺔ ﺑ ﺒﻦ ﻣ ﺴﺘﻮى ﺷ ﻔﺎﻓﯿﺔ اﻻﻓ ﺼﺎح‬
‫وﺗﻐﻄﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺎھﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮﯾﺔ‪ -‬دراﺳﺔ اﻣﺒﺮﯾﻘﯿ ﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﺠﻠ ﺔ اﻟﺒﺤ ﻮث‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﺔ‪ ،‬اﻟﻌﺪد ‪ ،١‬ص ص ‪.٥٩٤-٥٣٦‬‬
‫ﺷﺎھﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﺳﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﺴﻦ ﻣﺮﺳﻲ‪ .(٢٠١٧) .‬ﻗﯿﺎس أﺛﺮ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺌﻮﻟﯿﺔ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﻈﻤ ﺎت اﻷﻋﻤ ﺎل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻤﺎرﺳﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﻨﺐ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ .‬رﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎھﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﺿ ﺎھﺮ‪ ،‬ﺳ ﺎﻣﺢ ﺳ ﻌﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﻤ ﻮد‪ .(٢٠١٧) .‬ﻗﯿ ﺎس أﺛ ﺮ اﻟﻔ ﺮوق اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﺟ ﻮدة اﻷرﺑ ﺎح‬
‫واﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺪاول اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ رأس اﻟﻤ ﺎل اﻟﻤﻤﻠ ﻮك‪ .‬رﺳ ﺎﻟﺔ دﻛﺘ ﻮراه‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎھﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺒ ﺎس‪ ،‬ﺻ ﺎﺑﺮ‪ .(٢٠١٦) .‬دور اﻟﺘ ﺴﯿﯿﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤ ﺔ ﻟﻠ ﻀﺮاﺋﺐ ﻓ ﻲ اﺗﺨ ﺎذ اﻟﻘ ﺮارات اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿ ﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺳ ﺴﺔ‬
‫اﻻﻗﺘ ﺼﺎدﯾﺔ‪-‬دراﺳ ﺔ ﺣﺎﻟ ﺔ ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﻋﯿﻨ ﺔ ﻣ ﻦ ﻣﺆﺳ ﺴﺎت ﻗﻄ ﺎع اﻟﻤﺤﺮوﻗ ﺎت‪ .‬رﺳ ﺎﻟﺔ دﻛﺘ ﻮراه‪،‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺑﺴﻜﺮة‪ ،‬اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺤﻠﯿﻢ‪ ،‬واﺋﻞ ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺤﻠﯿﻢ‪ .(٢٠١٩) .‬اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻹﻓﺼﺎح اﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧ ﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻘ ﺎرﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿ ﺔ‬
‫وﻋﺪم ﺗﻤﺎﺛﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﯿﺪة ﺑﺎﻟﺒﻮرﺻﺔ اﻟﻤﺼﺮﯾﺔ‪-‬دراﺳﺔ إﻣﺒﺮﯾﻘﯿﺔ‪ .‬رﺳﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﺰﻗﺎزﯾﻖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ‪ ،‬وﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ اﻟﺴﯿﺪ‪ .(٢٠١٨) .‬أﺛﺮ ﺣﻮﻛﻤﺔ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺑ ﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ‬
‫اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪-‬دراﺳﺔ إﻣﺒﺮﯾﻘﯿﺔ‪ .‬رﺳﺎﻟﺔ دﻛﺘﻮراه‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪-‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﺰﻗﺎزﯾﻖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﻗﺲ‪ ،‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮ ﺳﻌﺪ‪ .(٢٠١٧) .‬اﻟﺘﺨﻄﯿﻂ اﻟﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺒﺎدئ واﻷﺳﺲ واﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﺪوﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫– اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﻣﺠﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺎل واﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‪ ،‬اﻟﻌﺪد ‪ ،٥٧٨‬ص ص ‪.٢٨-١٧‬‬
‫ﻣ ﺼﻄﻔﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﻨ ﺔ اﷲ ﻣﺤﻤ ﺪ ﻣﺤﻤ ﺪ‪ .(٢٠١٩) .‬اﻻﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳ ﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳ ﺒﯿﺔ ﻷﺳ ﺎﻟﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫وأﺛﺮھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺸﺄة‪-‬دراﺳﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ‪ .‬رﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿ ﺔ اﻟﺘﺠ ﺎرة‪ ،‬ﺟﺎﻣﻌ ﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺼﻮرة‪.‬‬
‫واﻟ ﻲ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤ ﻮد رﺿ ﺎ ﻋﻠ ﻲ‪ .(٢٠١٦) .‬اﻟﺘﺨﻄ ﯿﻂ اﻟ ﻀﺮﯾﺒﻲ وأﺛ ﺮه ﻋﻠ ﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻤ ﺔ اﻟ ﺴﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻷﺳ ﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺎت اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق اﻷوراق اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤ ﺼﺮﯾﺔ‪ .‬رﺳ ﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎﺟ ﺴﺘﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻠﯿ ﺔ اﻟﺘﺠ ﺎرة‪،‬‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎھﺮة‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪٦٠٦‬‬
 ––

‫ ﺗ ﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻹﻓ ﺼﺎح اﻟ ﺴﺮدي ﻋﻠ ﻰ ﻗ ﺮارات اﻻﺳ ﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬.(٢٠١٨ ) .‫ ھﺒ ﺔ إﺑ ﺮاھﯿﻢ ﻋﺒ ﺪ اﻟﻌﺰﯾ ﺰ‬،‫ﯾﻮﺳﻒ‬
.‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﻋﯿﻦ ﺷﻤﺲ‬،‫ ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرة‬،‫ رﺳﺎﻟﺔ دﻛﺘﻮراه‬،‫واﻧﻌﻜﺎﺳﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
:‫ ﻣﺮاﺟﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ اﻻﻧﺠﻠﯿﺰﯾﺔ‬:ً‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ‬
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 
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   

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Measuring the Impact of Tax Planning on the Continuity

of the Company in Light of Information Asymmetry:
An Empirical Study

By
Dr. Yasser Mohamed Samra Dr. Hassan Shata Al-
Mawaziny
Professor of Accounting & Auditing Lecturer of Accounting & Auditing
Faculty of Commerce – Damietta Faculty of Commerce – Damietta
University University
Hany Abdelrahman Abdelaziz
Assistant Lecturer of Accounting
Faculty of Commerce – Damietta University

Abstract:
This study aimed to analyze the relationship between tax planning
and going concern, in the light of what tax planning practices create in
terms of information gap - information asymmetry - between the internal
management and the external user of the financial statements. The study
examined the direct impact of tax planning on the going concern of the
company. Also, the study examined the indirect impact of tax planning
on going concern of the company in the light of the presence of the
mediating role of information asymmetry, through applying to companies
listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange in the period from 2014 to 2019.
Using a sample of 137 companies that recorded 658 observations,
the researcher found, from testing the direct and indirect relationships
between the study variables, that there is a positive impact of tax
planning on increasing the chances of going concern of companies. Also,
the researcher concluded that increasing tax planning practices leads to
increase the level of information asymmetry which in turn leads to reduce
the chances of going concern. The researcher also found an adverse
effect (negative) for the information asymmetry on the chances of going
concern, which indicates to decreasing the positive impact of tax
planning on opportunities for going concern when the information
asymmetry variable is mediated.
Key words: Tax planning, going concern, information asymmetry.

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