research methods

Causality

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 Plan

• Qualities of science
• Causality
• Causality criteria
• Correlation and causality
• Causal hypotheses
• Potential errors in causal explanation

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Qualities of Science

“1. Expressing the regularity of events of a

certain type in nature.
2. Establishing a relation of these
regularities with the regularity of events
of another kind.
3. Expressing these relations first with
rules and then with theories that are the
sum of the rules.”

Kaynak: Mardin, 2008, s. 24

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Understanding Regularities

“The natural environment that natural

scientists study makes no sense for the
molecules, atoms and electrons in this
environment. The field of observation of
social scientists, in other words, social
facts, has a certain meaning and
importance for people who live, act and
think in this environment.”

Kaynak: Schutz’den (1954) aktaran Mardin, 2008, s. 24-25

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Determinism and Social Sciences

• Is our behavior a product of our own

freely made decisions, or is it the product
of forces and factors in the world that we
cannot control or know about?

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Causality in Natural Sciences

• Calculating the speed of a falling object

(can be calculated precisely if the weight
of the object, environmental conditions,
etc. are known)
• Controlling the development of plants
(light, water, fertilizer, etc.)
• These and similar factors (for example,
genetic inheritance) also explain human
development.
• The cause-effect relationship in the
natural sciences is also generally applied
to people, plants and objects..
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Causality Measures

• For there to be a cause-effect

relationship between two variables:
– Cause should it come before the result
– There should be correlation between
variables
– The observed change should not be
explained by a third variable

Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 75-76

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 Correlation and Causality
Observed relationships
positive (direct) correlation negative (inverse) correlation

Education Income Education Prejudice

higher education is related with High education is related with

high income (or vice versa) low prejudice (or vice versa)
Causal relationships
direct causal correlation inverse causal correlation

Education Income Education Prejudice

higher education is reason Higher education level

to make more money reduces the level of prejudice
Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 77’den uyarlandı
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Correlation and Pseudo-causality
Observed relationships

positive (direct) relationship

Shoe math
number ability

Bigger shoe size is related to higher math ability (and

vice versa)
true causal relationship

pseudo-causal relationship
Age
Shoe math
number ability
Shoe
number math
Shoe math ability
number ability Age both bigger shoes
higher number more number being higher
math ability explains math skill
Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 77’den uyarlandı
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Necessary and Sufficient Reasons

• Necessary cause: Condition that must be

met for the effect to occur
• Sufficient Reason: The condition that
almost guarantees the effect

Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 93-94

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 Necessary and Sufficient Reasons
Takes the Exam Didn't take the exam

K K K K K
failed
K K K K K
K k K KK k
K K K K

A AC B D A B B
passed A C D D A
B A B D C CC
A B BB C CC D
A BBB C C A
It is necessary but not sufficient to take the exam to pass, it is necessary to both
take the exam and get a passing grade in order to pass the exam. Not taking
the exam is reason enough to fail (but you can fail for other reasons)
Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 80’den uyarlandı
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Causal Hypotheses

• There are at least two variables

• Expresses causal relationship or cause-effect
relationship between variables
• It can be expressed as a prediction or an
expected outcome in the future.
• Logically tied to a research question and a
theory
• It can be falsified; that is, it can be tested with
empirical evidence and shown to be true or
false.
Kaynak: Neuman, 2008, s. 241

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Ways of Expressing Causal Relationships

• Attending religious ceremonies leads to a

drop in divorce rates
• The higher the rate of participation in
religious ceremonies, the lower the
probability of divorce.
• Participation in religious ceremonies is
associated with a decrease in divorce
rates.
• Participation in religious ceremonies
reduces the likelihood of divorce.
Kaynak: Neuman, 2008, s. 242

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Potential Errors in Causal Explanation
Short description
Example
Error type The relationship is correct by
Poverty is due to little money.
tautology definition but has a circular logic

People with imam marriage

Teleology The reason is an improper intention,
getting married because society wants it
or the time order is wrong
that way.

ecological fallacy Empirical observations are too high-

Ankara has a high crime rate. Ali lives in
level to explain the causal
Ankara. That's why he probably stole my
relationship.
watch

reductionism Empirical observations are too low-

Ali is unemployed and new
level to explain the causal
country because it can't buy a car
relationship.
economy is stagnant

An invisible third variable is the cause

fake relationship
Hair length is associated with TV shows.
of both the independent and
Short-haired people prefer to watch
dependent variable.
football, long-haired people prefer to
watch love stories.
(Unseen cause: Gender)

Kaynak: Neuman, 2008, s. 173’ten uyarlandı

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Reasoning Errors

• Personal and cultural bias, having

opinions; the researcher's interpretation
of events from his own perspective
• Being hasty in reaching conclusions
• Doubtful cause
• Suppressed evidence
• False dilemma

Kaynak: Babbie, 2001, s. 81-83

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 Özet

• Bilimselliğin nitelikleri
• Nedenleri saptama
• İdiografik – nomotetik açıklama
• Nedensellik ölçütleri
• Nedensel açıklamada potansiyel hatalar

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 Thanks…

This lecture presentation prepared by Prof. Dr. Yaşar

TONTA has been edited and used by us with his permission
dated 29.09.2021.

We thank him for the main framework and content of the

presentation.

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