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Dawn Editorials & Opinions

his JUI-F is the largest political force in


Dawn the province; Asif Ali Zardari has hinted
Editorial/Opinions that those devising ‘minus-one formulae’
are asking for help, though he said no
25 Dec 2021 talks would be held until the PTI is
ousted. And Shehbaz Sharif has dubbed
the KP polls as the “beginning of the end
of an experiment that has cost the nation
dearly”. Though they are riding on the
Opposition’s elation recent wave of the JUI-F’s success and
PTI’s defeat in the KP polls, the reality is
Editorial 25 Dec 2021
that the ruling party’s losses have more to
THE trouncing of the PTI in the first do with its own failings than any
phase of local government elections has intelligent strategy of the opposition.
come as a significant blow to the ruling
party. As a result of the setback, the
prime minister is now keenly focused on Uncontrolled inflation, a poor economic
avoiding an upset in the upcoming performance, unemployment, and water
Punjab polls, and is said to be personally and gas shortages have plagued the PTI
overseeing preparations. The JUI-F in both the long and the short term,
emerged as the big winner in the KP cementing the impression that the party is
polls, bagging 17 out of 47 tehsil councils far from the days of its peak confidence
and leaving the PTI with 12. The in the aftermath of the 2018 polls. The
development has created a wave of fiasco in KP was due to both low party
optimism in opposition ranks at a time morale and the selection of the wrong
when the so-called anti-government candidates as admitted by the PM
drive exists only in name. Months of himself. Furthermore, it is said that it was
protests against the government by the a PTI vs PTI showdown, betraying that
PDM and vows to resign from the the KP poll strategy itself was in disarray.
assemblies, plus declarations of long
marches, have hardly dented the PTI’s
morale. But since the LG polls this week, Though the opposition has obviously
the opposition leaders are ecstatic. benefited from this lack of planning and
Maulana Fazlur Rehman has boasted that low morale, their own strategies and
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internal wrangling give little hope for revitalised the market and ended
something impactful to come next. The uncertainty about future government
PTI’s infighting has caused serious policies. But it has not. The markets are
damage, but the PDM’s quarrelling with apparently more focused on the
the PPP and the PML-N’s leadership government’s ability to get the National
crisis still persist. It is perhaps too soon Assembly’s approval for the
for the opposition to rejoice, even as the supplementary finance bill, 2021, and
ruling party is smarting from its recent controversial changes in the State Bank
defeat. Overcoming the political friction Act, two of the five prior actions
between opposition parties and finding a Islamabad has agreed to before the IMF’s
lasting solution to the Maryam Nawaz vs executive board revives its funding
Shehbaz Sharif crisis is no mean feat. The programme.
PTI may be fumbling due to its own
mistakes, but the truth is that the
opposition parties remain mired in A report early this week had revealed that
problems of their own making. Unless the federal cabinet had deferred approval
they get their act together, their current of both the supplementary finance bill
elation will fizzle out as quickly as did and the suggested changes in the SBP law
the ‘power show’ of the PDM. because of political reasons. It has now
transpired that there are strong
Funding review
differences of opinion within the PTI
Editorial 25 Dec 2021 over new tax measures being introduced
through the finance bill in the wake of the
THE government on Thursday said the
party’s battering in the first phase of local
IMF executive board will take up the
government elections in KP where voters
sixth review of its suspended $6bn
showed their frustration with the PTI for
funding programme for approval on Jan
not curbing the rising cost of living.
12. That means the country can expect
Many in the party believe that putting
the resumption of funding latest by the
greater financial burden on the people
end of next month, followed by the
through an increase in taxes could be
immediate transfer of the two pending
suicidal in terms of future elections. The
tranches of $1bn to the State Bank.
party’s allies are also reluctant to support
Ideally, the announcement should have
the inflationary measures proposed in the
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bill for fear of a political backlash in NCOC decision, those in this category
Punjab and elsewhere. As far as the bill will be able to get free booster shots of
— which will free the central bank from their choice from Jan 1. Earlier, only
the influence of fiscal authorities and people above 50 or those with
politicians on matters concerning the compromised immunity could receive
exchange rate and monetary policy — is booster jabs of the vaccine they had been
concerned, the security establishment is immunised with. But as several people
believed to be wary of unfettered couldn’t travel easily because a number
autonomy for the bank and its of countries let in only those who had
management. It goes without saying that been administered vaccines approved by
the opposition has already pledged to them, the government here decided to
resist the passage of the laws. So in such allow people to receive booster jabs of
circumstances, it is foolish to expect that their choice, irrespective of the vaccine
a mere announcement of the IMF board they were initially administered. At a
meeting for considering Pakistan’s time when the Omicron variant is
request on a particular date will end spearheading a potential fifth wave of
economic uncertainty stemming from the infections in Europe, the decision taken
deteriorating current account deficit, by Pakistan will also provide some
depleting foreign exchange reserves and degree of protection to people, including
galloping inflation. The markets need those who had already been inoculated
much more than that: a clear policy but who may once again be vulnerable to
direction for the economy. More the virus as the efficacy of vaccines
importantly, they want to know if the administered months ago tapers off. In
government has what it takes to make fact, the Omicron variant is said to be
tough decisions. highly transmissible even in people who
have been vaccinated.
Booster shots

Editorial 25 Dec 2021


It is true that the WHO says the Omicron
IN a welcome move, Pakistani
variant is a consequence of vaccine
authorities have decided to extend the
inequality, and has warned that “no
Covid-19 vaccine booster to all adults of
country can boost its way out of the
30 years and above. According to a recent
pandemic”. It says that booster shots
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might prolong the pandemic as abject, distressing, and a dismal science;


developed nations divert vaccine a reference clichéd since.
supplies away from the countries that
need them most. This statement came in
response to the recently announced One may differ over the dismal nature of
booster programmes in the US and Israel. economics, not least because of Carlyle’s
However, Pakistan’s case appears to be bizarre, racist arguments. But,
quite different. While it can hardly be economists, to be honest, are somewhat
ranked among those who hoard vaccines, distressing and dismal. You can tell if
it has managed to inoculate millions, the you’ve actually met one. Imagine a CEO
vaccine hesitancy in the population on the other hand, and spontaneously the
notwithstanding. The NCOC’s diligent image of a dynamic, enterprising
efforts have been paying off with over individual with a healthy risk appetite
63m fully vaccinated and more than 90m comes to mind.
having received a single dose. It must
continue with its efforts to speed up
regular Covid-19 vaccination alongside No prizes for guessing that Imran Khan
administering booster shots. himself is more of the latter kind.
Whether it in cricket and welfare
previously, or is in his position as prime
(Published in Dawn, December 25th, minister now, he prefers leaps of faith
2021) over prudence. Naturally, he can relate
with the grittier CEO kind better.
Dismal economist...

By Usman Masood
Of course, Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh was
THOMAS Carlyle, in his essay
the dismal kind — a somewhat
Occasional Discourse on the Negro
paternalistic economist. One may
Question, argued that the idea of
visualise Dr Sheikh telling a restless
abolition of slavery was incompatible
Khan Sahib week after week that there
with high productivity. It was in this
was no route to his much-promised land
essay that he referred to economics as an
in the immediate future with an irritating

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consistency, worsened by a stoic According to conventional economic


expression. wisdom, you can’t outgrow inflation.
That is, a government’s effort to spend
more to achieve a higher GDP growth is
On the other hand, Shaukat Tarin, like doomed to failure in times of already
Asad Umer, is the enterprising kind. How high inflation. The government may hope
could such corporate giants, with their to achieve prosperity with industrial
verve and experience, have failed in growth, but a stimulus to the economy —
economic management? say, incentives to spur investment — will
almost certainly lead to even higher
inflation. And the inflation,
Indeed, the monetary side of the unfortunately, comes before the fruit of
economy is a somewhat obscure world policy on the fiscal side ie before growth.
that lies behind the simpler fiscal side. A
policy that is good for raising taxes and
building infrastructure — the fiscal side The central bank advises policymakers in
— may lead to higher prices for the such circumstances that they’re going to
common person — a monetary effect — burn the plants in their frantic desire for
which adversely affects people’s faster growth. A higher policy rate is one
standard of living. of the bitter pills central banks have to
cool the economy, much like opening the
windows of a greenhouse.
Much like a greenhouse, which otherwise
is meant to keep plants warm, can get
overheated with the entrapment of too When Tarin was brought in, the economy
much heat and light, economists say the was recovering. Government was
economy is ‘overheated’ if there is too boasting about the growth it had achieved
much inflation. If fiscal policy is like the previous year (ironically under the
sowing seeds in a greenhouse, the Sheikh-Reza Baqir duo). But inflation
monetary policy is about maintaining its was still on an upward trajectory. It still
temperature. needed time to be tamed. In fact, it was
suggested that Tarin had been brought in
to control inflation.
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the rupee’s depreciation. Thus, faced


with raging inflation, his enthusiasm for
But Tarin, gauging his boss’s pulse,
lower interest rates and higher growth,
aimed at instant growth, which was a
his rallying cry a few months back, has
recipe for worsening inflation. He spared
all but disappeared. One really wonders
no opportunity to criticise the State Bank
who actually needs to learn what.
for maintaining a ‘high interest rate’,
which in his view, had been hurting
growth as well as the parity of the rupee
What, nevertheless, clear is that because
somehow. Thus, with much fanfare,
businesses don’t have a parallel, elusive
Tarin presented a growth budget.
monetary side, even the smartest people
from the corporate world have a hard
time appreciating that investing can
This clearly pressured the State Bank and
indeed be counterproductive for an
it tried to accommodate the government’s
economy, for example, when overheated.
growth stance, not raising the interest rate
Economists, for their part, can be thick in
for 15 months. With a low interest rate
their own way, a subject for another day.
and lesser spreads, the short-term foreign
Yet, sometimes an economy in need just
in--vestors have an incentive to pull their
needs an economist, even if a dismal one.
(controversial, hot) money out of the
economy. Deprecia-tion in turn affects
even the longer-term investors, worsened
The writer teaches economics and
by a rising current account deficit (even
development at Szabist, Islamabad.
higher without the serendipitous
remittances) and higher energy prices,
which put downward pressure on the
(Published in Dawn, December 25th,
currency.
2021)

Electoral reforms
Now, undergoing a change of heart,
By A.G. Noorani
Tarin Sahib favoured a higher interest
rate in an interview and hoped, the State SECOND only to the constitution, the
Bank had learned from high inflation and election law of a democracy is of the
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utmost importance. Like the constitution, electoral roll data with the Aadhaar
the election law must rest on a national ecosystem, it was cleared by Rajya Sabha
consensus. The election law of India is on Dec 21, 2021, amid acrimonious
embodied in Article 324 to 329 of the scenes.
constitution and in two statutes namely,
As in Lok Sabha, the opposition raised
the Representation of the People Act,
strong objections to a bill in Rajya Sabha
1950, and the Representation of the
as well. Yet in March 2020, when the
People Act, 1951.
parliamentary standing committee asked
the government to undertake
“appropriate actions” for “linking unique
The act of 1950 deals with the allocation
Aadhaar card number with Voter ID
of seats and delimitation of
card”, opposition members in the panel
constituencies, the appointment of
did not raise any red flag then. Thus the
election officers and the preparation and
opposition is not blameless either.
maintenance of electoral rolls. The act of
1951 deals with the qualifications and
disqualifications for membership of the
Election law is not something to play
legislatures — central and state, the
with. If the opposition had changed its
definition of corrupt practices and,
mind it should have admitted as much.
indeed, with the entire machinery and
The Aadhar card was introduced recently
procedure for the conduct of elections.
as a national identity card. It has its flaws.
The important sets of rules are the
The country is yet to cope with it. To
Registration of Electors Rules, 1960, and
expect illiterate villagers to use it to draw
the Conduct of Elections Rules, 1961.
their rations and the like is too much.
There are also issues of privacy.

There has yet been no comprehensive


reform of the election law. The latest
Much of the law on election is based on
attempt represents the authoritarian style
the dicta of the Supreme Court without
of the Narendra Modi government. A day
the support of any legislation. This is a
after it was pushed through Lok Sabha,
classic case of the court intervening when
the Election Laws (Amendment) Bill,
the legislators fail to act. But this holds
2021, which enables the linking of
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dangers for the democratic process. with the religious one, which mark out
Unelected judges cannot and should not the Hindu people as a whole. The
usurp a task that belongs truly to the definition is not consequently meant to
elected representatives of the people. be a definition of Hindu dharma, or
Hindu religion. It is a definition of
‘Hindutva’ ‘Hinduness’.It is essentially
The legislature did not enact any national in its outlook and comprehends
effective law to bar criminals. the Hindu people as a Hindu rashtra” —
Criminalisation of politics is a disease a Hindu state.
which reared its head decades ago. The
law now rests on the directions issued by
India’s supreme court. The newfangled pernicious doctrine, was
taken over by the RSS, the Jan Sangh,
and the BJP. Hinduism is ancient.
Yet this very court has failed to prevent Hindutva is modern. The former is a
those who spew religious hate from matter of faith. Hindutva belongs to
entering the legislatures. In December sordid expediency.
1995, a bench headed by a pro-Hindutva
judge J.S. Verma held that the cry for
Hindutva did not amount to a plea for a Later, two benches asked the chief justice
Hindu state. It was simply a synonym for to set up a larger bench to review that
Hinduism. defective judgement. As an authority on
Hindutva, justice Verma did not quote its
author V.D. Savarkar’s essay but, hold
The publisher of Savarkar’s essay your breath, one Maulana Wahiduddin
Hindutva: Who is a Hindu? wrote: Khan’s Indian Muslims: The Need for a
“Apart from the religious aspect involved Positive Outlook (1994). It simply said:
in the conception of the words ‘Hindu’ ‘The strategy worked out to solve the
and ‘Hinduism’, Veer Savarkar had to minorities problem was, although
coin some new words such as ‘Hindutva’, differently worded, that of Hindutva or
‘Hinduness’, ‘Hindudom’ in order to Indianisation. This strategy, briefly
express totality of the cultural, historical, stated, aims at developing a uniform
and above all the national aspects along culture by obliterating the differences
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between all of the cultures coexisting in stakeholders on Pakistan’s political


the country. This was felt to be the way landscape exemplified failures in their
to communal harmony and national targeted objectives and resultant
unity. It was thought that this would put outcomes. None shall be glad to see the
an end once and for all to the minorities back of the calendar page as we enter its
problem.” last week.

The maulana in fact disapproved of The year illustrated all that is wrong,
Hindutva while justice Verma lauded it. weak and inadequate in our politics. The
No larger bench to reconsider this government could not govern, the
pathetic ruling was set up. Since opposition could not oppose and the
December 1995 umpteen general establishment could not finish what it
elections to the Lok Sabha and many started. Faced with an uncertain situation,
state assemblies were held under a all are shuffling their way back to the
defective law as declared by the supreme drawing board. But have they learnt the
court. The RSS and the BJP profited by right lessons?
the ruling erroneously.

In hindsight it is clear that the PTI


The writer is an author and a lawyer. government never recovered from its
victory in the 2018 elections. It has
literally been downhill from the day that
(Published in Dawn, December 25th, Prime Minister Imran Khan took oath of
2021) office in August of that year. That was
the highest point for the PTI. Each year
All fall down since then has weakened the
By Fahd Husain government’s performance, diluted its
credibility and undercut its viability as a
DESPONDENCY. Disappointment. party that is fit to rule. If it somehow
Disillusion. Take your pick of the word survives in office in 2022, it would do so
to describe the year that is limping its as a weakened shell of its original self.
way across the finish line. In 2021 all key The humiliating defeat in the Khyber
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Pakhtunkhwa local government elections attacking the opposition in a language,


has provided this evidence, if one was and with the substance, that harked back
needed. to the years prior to 2018. Digging your
way out of a hole has never been
considered an effective strategy.
The year 2021 was especially harsh on
the party. Though the scourge of inflation
has dogged it since previous years, it was As the year ends, PTI is in worse shape
this year that it really cut deep into than it was when 2021 had dawned. It is
household budgets and incinerated what now struggling to stay afloat in a sea of
was left of the government’s goodwill. mounting troubles and there are genuine
Not all of it was the government’s doing existential fears haunting it as it braces
— Covid supply issues creating mayhem for a fresh onslaught from opponents in
across the globe — but much of it was. the coming year. Has the party leadership
And is. The inability of the government learnt the right lessons? Or any lessons?
to manage the supply side of essential The answer may be more important for
commodities, and the bumbling way in the party than it may want to admit.
which it tackled macroeconomic policies,
fed into the monster of inflation. Even
today, there is no end in sight. The PML-N on the other hand is
grudgingly acknowledging that it has
learnt some lessons. Through the year,
Perhaps equally damaging was the the party struggled against the
government’s inability, even after three government, and against itself, and failed
years in power, to grow beyond blaming to come on top on both fronts. Whether it
the opposition for everything and provide was through the PDM, or via its solo
a clear roadmap of governance. Try as it flight against the government and the
might — and it did not try too hard — it establishment, the PML-N was unable to
could not shrug off the perception that its achieve the stated objectives of dragging
competence to govern a complex country the PTI down in the centre and in Punjab.
like Pakistan had fallen far short of the The duality of narrative inside the party
level needed. The more it struggled with kept asserting itself in obvious — and
governance, the more it reverted to often crude — ways without any
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indication that it might reconcile one way The establishment has also gone through
or another. Post-budget it appears that the various ups and downs and the seminal
PTI was coasting along smoothly for the moment of the year was without doubt
rest of the term while the PML-N was that DG ISI appointment issue. This one
floundering on the basis of its own event changed the course of politics and
contradictions. is in fact still reverberating across the
landscape because of the enormity of
stakes involved. There are now fairly
Until help came from an unlikely source clear indications that the establishment is
— the prime minister himself. swinging the pendulum back towards a
certain equilibrium. The effects will
manifest themselves in the coming
The controversy over the appointment of weeks. The institution did, however,
the DG ISI created the space that the signal fairly emphatically that its internal
PML-N wanted but was not getting. transfers and postings remained out of
However, the party that had been bounds for the political leadership. It was
criticising the establishment for bringing a lesson that had to be learnt the hard way
in the PTI government struggled in the by all concerned.
initial weeks to figure out how to now
engage the establishment. It now
transpires that the party leadership The year 2021 has been like a Netflix
appears to have internalised the reality series season — it is ending on a
that if it wants to claw its way back to suspenseful note just as the situation
power, it will need to somehow deal reaches a crucial twist in the plot. The
constructively with the elephant in the next season, starting in a week, will
room. It may still be premature to say that grapple with the biggest question: is there
something has been worked out, but it is a change in the offing or will the
safe to say that the party is ending the government overcome yet another
year on a higher note than the one it challenge? Tune in to watch the same
started the year with. characters grappling with fresh
challenges in a battle that cannot have too
many winners.

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continue doing what our religion tells us.


This is the command.”
Here’s hoping that 2022 will bring
Pakistan much-needed stability and clear
the way for us to become a normal
Command? Dear Mr President, surely as
country.
one who aspires to be a Muslim hero you
have read the Quran. Therein stands the
clear injunction: “Allah has permitted
The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in
trade and has forbidden interest/usury”
Islamabad.
(2:275). “Forbidden” here does not mean
negotiating what is low or middle or high
— forbidden means zero, exactly zero.
Twitter: @fahdhusain Haram is haram. This is why all early
Muslim scholars rejected interest.

(Published in Dawn, December 25th,


2021) Many scholars still do today, particularly
The pitfalls of ideology Arabs and Pakistanis. In 2014, the top
ulema of Pakistan belonging to the Fiqhi
By Pervez Hoodbhoy Majlis said that even the so-called
RECEP Erdogan, president of Turkey, Sharia-compliant Islamic banking merely
says his faith in Islam stops him from renames interest as profit and, as such, is
raising bank interest rates. His hard-line deception. All banking, they concluded,
position sent the lira tumbling from one is haram. Historically, banking was
low to another; in the past three months it absent in Muslim countries until the 18th
has lost half its value. In spite of a partial century because nothing except zero
recovery, Turks are still saddled with an interest can be allowed.
inflation rate so high that supermarket
employees are barely able to keep up
with changing labels. But Erdogan has _Recep Erdogan and Imran Khan have
not budged: “As a Muslim, I will given the driving seat to emotion and the
back seat to reason._

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The Ottoman rulers of Turkey were, Erdogan is just one example where
however, not ideologues. As pragmatists ideology — whether religious or secular
who ran an empire, they broke the ban on — gives the driving seat to emotion and
banking because they well knew that no the back seat to reason. Turkey is in
banking meant no trading. This Western trouble, but the United States is in still
innovation had to be adopted come what deeper waters. Even in the post-Trump
may. But, to be safe, they first looked era many elected officials — both in the
around for muftis who could justify Senate and Congress — are ideologically
European banking — and found some. charged, radical, right-wing crackpots
One can endlessly debate whether these who deny climate change and conflate
justifications are genuine or gun-control with a communist takeover.
manufactured. Some lawmakers tacitly or openly
supported the Capitol’s takeover by a
mob. Will dysfunctional America get
But in Erdogan’s Turkey, state and back on the rails? The world is watching.
religion have been joined together;
ideology has trumped pragmatism. Still,
puzzles remain: how come an interest Pakistan’s misfortune is to have the soul
rate of six per cent is somehow un- brother of Erdogan in power today.
Islamic but a 4pc rate is okay? What Forget the falling rupee — it will surely
about 5pc? Erdogan is untroubled by make some small recoveries soon and,
such questions because he is an Ertugrul- for a while, everyone will be satisfied
like figure in his own imagination, again. Much more serious is that our
convinced of his absolute wisdom. He schools are producing hordes of ignorant,
recently lashed out at Turkish bigoted, hyper-religious Sialkot-type
businessmen who are unimpressed by his lynchers who are totally skill-deficient.
faith-driven economic policies. After This will get far worse when the
chairing a cabinet meeting on the falling ideologically motivated Single National
lira, he accused them of “scheming to Curriculum (SNC), the brainchild of PM
topple the government” and said their Imran Khan — becomes fully
hopes would be in vain. operational.

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This under-achievement kills the


possibility of Pakistan doing well in
The SNC conjoins regular schools with
science and technology even into the
madressahs. Across the country, regular
22nd century. Lacking scientists,
schools are being dragged down and
engineers, and technicians of quality,
turned into seminaries. The pre-SNC
Pakistan has reached a dead end. CPEC’s
situation was bad enough with abysmally
billions failed to ignite industrial,
low achievement levels in reading,
engineering, scientific, or business
writing and reasoning. SNC, by making
activity. The country has no space
the rote-learning system still stronger,
programme, no biotech labs turning out
will deal the death blow. On the one hand
new products, and no significant
children will memorise vastly greater
indigenous hi-tech industry in any
amounts of religious materials. On the
domain. Last year, Pakistan’s software
other hand, only a single official textbook
exports — a measure of brain power —
is specified for each subject. A student
stood at barely $2 billion (India’s were
memorising selected parts of that book
$148bn).
can get full marks.

On the academic front, Pakistani


On a global level, Pakistani children
professors churn out thousands of so-
presently stand at the bottom of
called research papers every year but
achievement levels. Inferior to their
these are mostly worthless. Today, the
counterparts in Iran, India and
Pakistan Academy of Science is stuffed
Bangladesh, they are almost always
with persons having fake credentials; its
absent from competitions like the
office-bearers have the highest national
international science and mathematics
honours but they stand exposed by
Olympiads. When they do compete, they
international organisations as cheaters
perform poorly. The solitary exception is
and plagiarists. The continuing
invariably an O-A level or IB student
revelations of one such organisation,
linked to a foreign examination system.
Retraction Watch, are like water off a
duck’s back. None in the PAS so much as
bat an eyelid at the exposés — fraud and
bluster has become a way of life.
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These grim problems can be overcome if (Published in Dawn, December 25th,


there is a desire to be ruthlessly honest. 2021)
But when aggressive self-righteous
zealots grab the reins of power, the
chances decrease. Such dogmatists make
reform impossible by asserting that they
— and they alone — know the truth.
Their moral absolutes lead to strong
emotions, diminished reasoning capacity
and dysfunction in governance.

Buoyed up by Pakistan’s victory in


Afghanistan, on many occasions PM
Khan — who greatly admires Erdogan
and bin Laden — has gleefully lauded the
Taliban as a liberating force. He has
lauded the Pakistani madrassahs that
produced the Taliban and showered
funds upon them. Now he wants our
regular schools to emulate Taliban-style
education — hence SNC. By official
notification dated Dec 21, co-education
in Punjab’s schools will be phased out. In
fulfilling PM Khan’s ideological
fantasies, Pakistan will pay a terrible
price.

The writer is an Islamabad-based


physicist and writer.
Page 15 of 15
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