Lesson 3

Click to edit Master title style
RANDOM
VARIABLES AND
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
1
“
What is Random
Variable?
A variable whose value is
determined by a random
experiment
2
Random Variable
A random variable in
probability is most commonly
denoted by capital X, and the
small letter x is then used to
ascribe a value to the random
variable. 3
Random Variable
EXAMPLE:
You flip a coin twice,
Give the possible
outcomes
4
PROBABILITY TREE DIAGRAM
5
Random Variable
Possible outcomes:
S = Sample space
H= Head
T= Tails
•𝑆 = 𝐻 𝐻, 𝐻 𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇
6
Random Variable
The random variable X can
be given by the following:
𝐻𝐻
𝐻𝑇
𝑋=
𝑇𝐻
𝑇𝑇
7
Random Variable
To find the probability of one of those
out comes we denote that question as:
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
Which means that the probability that
the random variable is equal to some
real number x. 8
There are Two types of

Random Variables:
Discrete random variables and

Continuous random variables.
9
What is Discrete
Random Variables?
10
“ What is Discrete?
The word discrete
means separate and
individual.
11
“
What is Discrete
Random Variables?
Table or formula that lists
the probabilities for each
outcomes of the random
variable “x” 12
“
What is Discrete
Random Variables?
Thus discrete random variables
are those that take on integer
values only. They never include
fractions or decimals. 13
Discrete Random Variable
Example
•The sample space of any number of
coin flips, the outcomes will always be
integer values, and you'll never have
half heads or quarter tails.
14
Such a random variable
is referred to as discrete.
Discrete random variables give rise
to Discrete Probability Distributions.
15
What is Probability
“ Distributions?
Mapping of all the possible values
of a random variable to their
corresponding probabilities for a
given sample space.
16
Probability Distribution
•The probability distribution is denoted as;
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
•Which can be written in short form as;
𝑃 𝑥
17
The probability distribution can also be
referred to as a set of ordered pairs of
outcomes and their probabilities.
This is known as the probability
function f(x).
18
This set of ordered pairs can be
written as:
𝒙, 𝒇 𝒙
Where the function is defined as:
𝒇 𝒙 =𝑷 𝑿=𝒙
19
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
EXAMPLE:
Clare tossed a coin three times.
A. Draw a tree diagram to show
all the possible outcomes.
B. Find the probability of getting
•Three tails.
•Exactly two heads.
20
TREE
DIAGRAM
Possible
outcomes.
21
NUMBER OF TAILS / HEADS
𝑥 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
8 8 8 8
22
The probability of getting Three tails.
Let:
X be the sample space
x be the event of getting 3 tails.
23
𝑥 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
8 8 8 8
24
So now we′ve been told what X is and
that x = 1, so we write the above
information as:
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=1
25
Since we already have the sample space,
we know that there is only one outcomes
1
with Three Tails,𝑃 𝑋 = 1 =
8
We can also simply write the above as:
1
𝑃 𝑋 =
4 26
The probability of getting exactly two
Heads.
Let:
x be the event of getting exactly two
Heads.
27
𝑥 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥)
8 8 8 8
28
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=3
3
𝑃 𝑋=3 =
8
3
𝑃 𝑋 =
8
29
•Example:
A spinner is labeled with three colors: Red, Green
and Blue. Marcus spun the spinner once and
tossed a coin once.
a) Draw a tree diagram to list all the
possible outcomes.
b) Calculate the probability of getting blue
on the spinner and head on the coin.
c) Calculate the probability of red or green
on the spinner and tail on the coin. 30
31
The probability of getting blue on the
spinner and head on the coin.
Let:
x be the event of getting blue and
head
32
33
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=1
1
𝑃 𝑋=1 =
6
1
𝑃 𝑋 =
6
34
The probability of red or green on the
spinner and tail on the coin.
Let:
x be the event of getting red or
green and tail
35
36
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
𝑃 𝑋=2
2
𝑃 𝑋=2 =
6
2 1
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑜𝑟
6 3 37
Cumulative
Distribution
Function (CDF)
38
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
Is defined as the probability that a
random variable X with a given
probability distribution f(x) will be
found at a value less than x. The
cumulative distribution function is a
cumulative sum of the probabilities
up to a given point. 39
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The CDF is denoted by F(x) and

is mathematically described as:
𝐹 𝑥 =𝑃 𝑋≤𝑥 ,
𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
40
Cumulative
Click Distribution
to edit Master title style Function (CDF)
Discrete random variables

give rise to discrete
probability distributions.
41
Cumulative
Click Distribution
For example:
The probability of obtaining a
certain number x when you toss
a fair die is given by the
probability distribution table
below. 42
Cumulative
Click Distribution
𝒙 𝑃 𝑋=𝑥
𝟏ൗ
1 𝟔
𝟏ൗ
2 𝟔
𝟏ൗ
3 𝟔
𝟏ൗ
4 𝟔
𝟏ൗ
5 𝟔
𝟏ൗ
6 𝟔 43
Cumulative
Click Distribution
•For a discrete probability
distribution, the set of ordered
pairs (x , f(x)) , where x is each
outcome in a given sample
space and f(x) is its probability,
must follow the following:
44
Cumulative
Click Distribution
𝑷 𝑿=𝒙 =𝒇 𝒙
𝒇 𝒙 ≥𝟎
෍ 𝒇 𝒙 =𝟏
𝒙 45
Cumulative
Click Distribution
to edit Master Function (CDF)
title style
Cumulative Distribution Function for

For a discrete random variable, the CDF is given as

follows:
𝑭 𝒙 =𝑷 𝑿=𝒙 =෍ 𝒇 𝒕 .
𝒙
𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞ 46

Cumulative
Click Distribution
Let X equal the number of widgets

that are defective when 3 widgets are
randomly chosen and observed. The
possible values for X are {0, 1, 2, 3}.
47
Cumulative
Click Distribution
The probability mass function for X:
x P(X = x) or f(x)
0 0.550
1 0.250
2 0.175
3 0.025
48
Cumulative
Click Distribution
Suppose we’re interested in the

probability of getting 2 or less errors (i.e.
either 0, or 1, or 2).
We wish to calculate P(X ≤ 2).

49
Cumulative
Click Distribution
P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

= 0.550 + 0.250 + 0.175
= 0.975
50
Cumulative
Click Distribution
Below we see a table showing P(X ≤ x) for each
possible x
x P(X = x) or f(x) P(X ≤ x) = F(x)

0 0.550 0.550 P(X ≤ 0) = F(0)
1 0.250 0.800 P(X ≤ 1) = F(1)
2 0.175 0.975 P(X ≤ 2) = F(2)
3 0.025 1.000 P(X ≤ 3) = F(3)
51
Cumulative
Click Distribution
52
Cumulative
Click Distribution
53
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Expected Value of
Random Variables
54
Expected Value of Random Variables
E(X) - the expected value of the

random variable
𝑿 - the random variable
𝐸 𝑥 = ෍𝑥 𝑝 𝑥 𝒙- the values the random
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥 variable can take on
𝒑 𝒙 - the probability that the
random variable 𝑿 takes on the
value of 𝒙
55
Expected
Click to editValue
Masterof Random
title style Variables
Example:
The probability distribution 𝑬(𝑿)– the expected
of the prize you get in a prize you get
carnival game
𝑿 - the prize you get
x p(x) 𝒙 - the prizes you can
10 Pesos 0.70 get
50 Pesos 0.25 𝒑 𝒙 - your chances of
150 Pesos 0.05 getting the prize 𝒙
56
There is a 70% chance that you win

only 10 pesos, 25% chance of
winning 50 pesos, while there is
only 5% chance of you winning 150
pesos
57
Expected
Click to edit Value
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
x p(x) 𝑬(𝑿)– the expected

10 Pesos 0.70 prize you get
50 Pesos 0.25 𝑿 - the prize you get
150 Pesos 0.05 𝒙 - the prizes you can
get
𝒑 𝒙 - your chances of
𝑬 𝒙 = ෍𝒙 𝒑 𝒙
getting the prize 𝒙
𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒙
58
Expected
Click to edit Value
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
59
Expected
Click to editValue
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
𝑬 𝒙 = ෍𝒙 𝒑 𝒙
x p(x) 𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒙
10 0.70
Pesos
50 0.25
Pesos
150 0.05
Pesos
60
Expected
Click to edit Value
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
27 is the Expected Prize that you will win in this game.

27 pesos may not in the values of 𝒙 shown on the table,
but if you play the game 100 times, there is a big
chance that your total winnings are close to 2700
pesos. 2700 pesos divided by 100 games is equal to 27
PESOS PER GAME!
And, the more games you play, the closer your total
winnings are to the computed Expected Value of X. 61
Expected
Click to edit Value
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
62
Expected
Click Value title
to edit Master of Random
style Variables
x p(x) X = the amount of money Vhong

30 Pesos 0.23 saves in a day
x = possible amounts of Vhong’s
40 Pesos 0.12 savings per day
25 Pesos 0.48
p(x) = probability of Vhong
saving the amount each day
38 Pesos 0.12
15 Pesos 0.05
63
x p(x)
30 × 0.23 =
30 Pesos 0.23 40 × 0.12 =
40 Pesos 0.12 25 × 0.48 =
25 Pesos 0.48
38 Pesos 0.12 38 × 0.12 =
15 Pesos 0.05 15 × 0.05 =
෍ 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) .: Vhong saves 29.01

𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒙 pesos each day. 64
Expected
Click to edit Value
Master of
titleRandom
style Variables
65
Drew wants to know the

number of hours he can see his
crush in their classroom each
day from Monday to Friday.
66
67
Credits: Archer
Day No. of Hours
Monday 5
Tuesday 6
Wednesday 0
Thursday 8
Friday 6
68
Expected
Click Valuetitle
to edit Master of Random
style Variables
Drew wants to know number of hours many

hours he can see his crush in their classroom
each day from Monday to Friday.
x p(x) X = the number of
Monday 5 .20 hours Drew can see
Tuesday 6 .20 his crush each day
Wednesday 0 .20
x = the number of
Thursday 8 .20
class hours in a day
Friday 6 .20 69
Expected Value of Random
Variables
x p(x) 5 × 0.20 = 1.0

Monday 5 0.20
6 × 0.40 = 2.4
Tuesday 6 0.40 0 × 0.20 = 0.0
and Friday
Wednesday 0 0.20 8 × 0.20 = 1.6
Thursday 8 0.20
෍ 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) = 1.0 + 2.4 + 0.0 + 1.6
𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒙
70
71
•Applied to single variable discrete data

where results are the numbers of
“successful outcomes” in a given scenario.
e.g.:
no. of times the lights are red in 20 sets of traffic
lights
no. of students with green eyes in a class of 40
no. of plants with diseased leaves from a
sample of 50 plants 72
•A binomial experiment is a
probability experiment that
satisfies the following
conditions:
73
The experiment is repeated for a fixed

number of trials, where each trial is
independent of other trials.
There are only two possible outcomes of
interest for each trial. The outcomes can
be classified as a success (S) or as a
failure (F).
74
•A binomial experiment is a probability

experiment that satisfies the following
conditions:
The probability of a success P(S) is the
same for each trial.
The random variable x counts the
number of successful trials. 75
Symbol Description
n The number of times a trial is
repeated
p = P(S) The probability of success in

a single trial. 76
Symbol Description
q = P(F) The probability of failure in a
single trial. (q = 1 – p)
x The random variable represents a
count of the number of successes
in n trials: x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … , n.
77
•Formula used:
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 𝑞𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
•Where:
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
78
•Formula used: No. of

Probability
of success failures
No. of
success
𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)
Combination
random Probability of
of r successes
variable X failure
from n trials 79
An automatic camera records the number of

cars running a red light at an intersection (that is,
the cars were going through when the red light
was against the car). Analysis of the data shows
that on average 15% of light changes record a car
running a red light. Assume that the data has a
binomial distribution. What is the probability that in
20 light changes there will be exactly three (3)
cars running a red light? 80
•SOLUTION
Given:
p = 0.15
n = 20
r = 3
𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 − 𝑝 (1 𝑝)
3
𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 20𝐶3 ∙ 0.15 (1 − 0.15)20−3
𝑃 𝑋 = 3 = 0.24 𝑜𝑟 24% 81
A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the

chips are red, 5 of the chips are
white, and 2 of the chips are blue.
Three chips are selected, with
replacement. Find the probability
that you select exactly one red chip.
82
SOLUTION
Given:
p = (the probability of selecting a red
3
chip) = 0.3
10
n = 3
r = 1
𝑟 𝑛−𝑟
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑟 = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)
3
𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 3𝐶1 ∙ 0.3 (1 − 0.3)20−3
𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.441 𝑜𝑟44.1% 83
•Example:
A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the chips
are red, 5 of the chips are white, and 2
of the chips are blue. Four chips are
selected, with replacement. Create a
probability distribution for the number of
red chips selected.
84
Given:
p = (the probability of selecting a red
3
chip) = 0.3
10
n = 3
r = 1
85
x P (x)
The binomial
0 0.240
probability
1 0.412
formula is used
2 0.265
3 0.076
to find each
4 0.008
probability.
86
Example:
The following probability distribution represents the
probability of selecting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 red chips when
4 chips are selected.
x P (x) a.) Find the probability of selecting no
0 0.240
1 0.412
more than 3 red chips.
2 0.265
b.) Find the probability of selecting at
3 0.076
4 0.008 least 1 red chip.
87
Example:
x P (x)
0 0.240
a) P (no more than 3) = P (x  3) = P (0) + P
1 0.412 (1) + P (2) + P (3)
2 0.265 = 0.24 + 0.412 + 0.265 + 0.076 = 0.993
3 0.076
4 0.008
88
Example:
x P (x)
0 0.240
1 0.412 b.) P (at least 1) = P (x  1) = 1 – P (0)
2 0.265 = 1 – 0.24 = 0.76
3 0.076
4 0.008
89
Example:
probability of selecting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 red chips when 4 chips
are selected. Graph the distribution using a histogram.
x P (x)
0 0.240
1 0.412
2 0.265
3 0.076
4 0.008
90
Population Parameters of a Binomial

Distribution
Mean: 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
2
Variance: 𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Standard deviation: 𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
91
• Example:
One out of 5 students at a local college say that
they skip breakfast in the morning. Find the mean,
variance and standard deviation if 10 students are
randomly selected.
n  10 μ  np 2
σ  npq σ  npq
1
p   0.2
5
 10(0.2)  (10)(0.2)(0.8)  1.6
q  0.8 2  1.6  1.3 92
Poisson
Distribution
93
DEFINATION
•IS A TOOL THAT HELPS TO
PREDICT THE PROBABILITY OF
CERTAIN EVENT EVENTS FROM
HAPPENING WHEN YOU KNOW
HOW OFTEN THE EVENT HAS
OCCURRED. 94
DEFINATION
•IT GIVES US THE PROBABILITY OF A

GIVEN NUMBER OF EVENTS
HAPPENING IN A FIXED INTERVALOF
TIME.
•CAN BE USED TO ANALYZE THE
PROBABILITY OF VARIOUS EVENTS. 95
Suppose we are counting the

number of occurrence of an
event in a given unit of time,
distance, area, or volume.
96
EXAMPLE
●The number of car accidents in a
day.
● The number of dandelions in a
square per meter plot of land.
97
Thank you…
98

Lesson 3

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lesson 3

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Click to edit Master title style

There are Two types of

Discrete random variables and

NUMBER OF TAILS / HEADS

NUMBER OF TAILS / HEADS

NUMBER OF TAILS / HEADS

The CDF is denoted by F(x) and

Discrete random variables

Cumulative Distribution Function for

For a discrete random variable, the CDF is given as

𝑓𝑜𝑟 − ∞ < 𝑥 < ∞ 46

Let X equal the number of widgets

Suppose we’re interested in the

We wish to calculate P(X ≤ 2).

P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

x P(X = x) or f(x) P(X ≤ x) = F(x)

E(X) - the expected value of the

There is a 70% chance that you win

x p(x) 𝑬(𝑿)– the expected

27 is the Expected Prize that you will win in this game.

x p(x) X = the amount of money Vhong

෍ 𝒙 ∗ 𝒑(𝒙) .: Vhong saves 29.01

Drew wants to know the

Drew wants to know number of hours many

x p(x) 5 × 0.20 = 1.0

•Applied to single variable discrete data

The experiment is repeated for a fixed

•A binomial experiment is a probability

p = P(S) The probability of success in

•Formula used: No. of

An automatic camera records the number of

A bag contains 10 chips. 3 of the

Population Parameters of a Binomial

•IT GIVES US THE PROBABILITY OF A

Suppose we are counting the

You might also like