Indonesia Quarterly Beverage Forecast Data Book

4th Quarter 2020

Quarterly Topline Analysis of All Beverages Trends and Forecasts

QFIDQ420

February 2021
Table of Contents
Data Revisions

1. Category Historic and Forecast Trends and New Products

Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Dairy & Soy Drinks & Milk Alternatives

2. Data Tables

3. Product Definitions

4. Forecasting Methodology

1
Source: GlobalData
Data Revisions
Caveat: Hot Drinks, Dairy & Soy & Milk Alternatives Drinks, and the Wines and Spirits categories represent the latest data from
GlobalData’s GMD databases at the first of the final month of the latest quarter (ie for Q1-20: 1 March; Q2-20: 1 June; Q3-20: 1
September ; Q4-20: 1 December)

Source: GlobalData 2
At a Glance
Indonesia At a Glance – Soft Drinks Quarterly Performance and Latest Forecast

Quarterly Annual
M Liters Q4 2019 Q4 2020 % Change 2020 2021F % Change
Soft Drinks 3,068.9 2,933.9 -4.4 % 16,238.3 16,464.2 1.4 %
Packaged Water 1,971.1 1,899.3 -3.6 % 10,787.2 10,994.9 1.9 %
Carbonates 216.4 184.4 -14.8 % 806.8 796.5 -1.3 %
Juice 1.9 1.9 -1.1 % 7.5 7.4 -1.3 %
Nectars 37.5 38.5 2.8 % 175.7 182.6 3.9 %
Still Drinks 170.7 164.4 -3.7 % 697.2 694.3 -0.4 %
Squash/Syrups 78.8 85.0 7.9 % 570.3 554.0 -2.9 %
Fruit Powders 77.3 83.4 7.8 % 491.4 481.7 -2.0 %
Iced/RTD Tea Drinks 328.9 309.8 -5.8 % 1,766.9 1,804.8 2.1 %
Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks 53.4 50.2 -6.0 % 260.7 272.5 4.5 %
Sports Drinks 57.0 50.3 -11.7 % 301.2 294.9 -2.1 %
Energy Drinks 75.9 66.7 -12.1 % 373.5 380.5 1.9 %

Bulk/HOD water 4,707.7 4,594.0 -2.4 % 26,068.9 26,571.0 1.9 %

3
Source: GlobalData
At a Glance
Indonesia At a Glance – Hot And Dairy Drinks Quarterly Performance and Latest Forecast

Quarterly Annual
M Liters Q4 2019 Q4 2020 % Change 2020 2021F % Change
Hot Drinks 5,238.2 5,194.5 -0.8 % 19,398.9 20,536.2 5.9 %
Hot Coffee 2,844.3 2,765.6 -2.8 % 9,808.5 10,147.6 3.5 %
Hot Tea 2,282.6 2,316.4 1.5 % 9,163.8 9,929.2 8.4 %
Other Hot Drinks 111.3 112.5 1.1 % 426.7 459.4 7.7 %

Dairy & Soy Drinks & Milk 756.3 816.0 7.9 % 3,299.4 3,546.0 7.5 %
Alternatives
Condensed Milk 120.9 128.7 6.5 % 549.2 589.8 7.4 %
Drinking Yogurt 58.0 61.3 5.7 % 255.1 257.3 0.9 %
Evaporated Milk 2.8 2.6 -7.1 % 15.5 16.3 5.1 %
Flavored Milk 325.5 351.8 8.1 % 1,508.1 1,620.4 7.4 %
Soymilk 20.7 20.2 -2.4 % 77.1 77.2 0.1 %
White Milk 228.4 251.4 10.1 % 894.3 984.9 10.1 %

4
Source: GlobalData
At a Glance
Indonesia At a Glance – Alcoholic Drinks Quarterly Performance and Latest Forecast

Quarterly Annual
M Liters Q4 2019 Q4 2020 % Change 2020 2021F % Change
Alcoholic Drinks 37.1 33.8 -9.1 % 211.1 214.4 1.5 %
Beer 33.8 30.5 -9.6 % 200.3 202.6 1.1 %
Cider 0.1 0.1 5.3 % 0.2 0.3 17.7 %
Flavored Alcoholic Beverages 0.1 0.1 -7.3 % 0.4 0.4 7.2 %
Fortified Wine 0.0 0.0 -5.3 % 0.2 0.2 7.6 %
Sake 0.1 0.1 -4.3 % 0.2 0.3 9.4 %
Spirits 2.6 2.5 -4.3 % 8.0 8.8 8.8 %
Wine 0.5 0.5 -4.5 % 1.7 1.9 8.1 %

5
Source: GlobalData
6
Packaged Water and Bulk/HOD Water

Source: GlobalData 7
Carbonates

8
Source: GlobalData
Juice and Nectars

9
Source: GlobalData
Still Drinks

10
Source: GlobalData
Squash/Syrups and Fruit Powders

11
Source: GlobalData
Iced/RTD Tea Drinks and Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks

12
Source: GlobalData
Sports Drinks and Energy Drinks

13
Source: GlobalData
14
Hot Drinks

15
Source: GlobalData
16
Alcoholic Drinks

17
Source: GlobalData
18
Dairy & Soy & Milk Alternatives

19
Source: GlobalData
20
Data Tables
Indonesia Soft Drinks Market Trends - Million Liters, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Liters 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Soft Drinks 2,933.9 -4.4 % 16,238.3 -7.3 % 16,238.3 -7.3 % 16,238.3 16,464.2 1.4 %

Packaged Water 1,899.3 -3.6 % 10,787.2 -6.5 % 10,787.2 -6.5 % 10,787.2 10,994.9 1.9 %

No Carbonation 1,898.6 -3.6 % 10,781.8 -6.5 % 10,781.8 -6.5 % 10,781.8 10,989.4 1.9 %

Regular 0.7 -22.2 % 5.3 -8.4 % 5.3 -8.4 % 5.3 5.5 2.5 %

Carbonates 184.4 -14.8 % 806.8 -10.4 % 806.8 -10.4 % 806.8 796.5 -1.3 %

Low Calorie 3.5 -19.5 % 13.9 -10.0 % 13.9 -10.0 % 13.9 12.4 -11.1 %

Regular 180.8 -14.7 % 792.9 -10.4 % 792.9 -10.4 % 792.9 784.2 -1.1 %

Juice 1.9 -1.1 % 7.5 -3.0 % 7.5 -3.0 % 7.5 7.4 -1.3 %

Nectars 38.5 2.8 % 175.7 1.2 % 175.7 1.2 % 175.7 182.6 3.9 %

Still Drinks 164.4 -3.7 % 697.2 -16.4 % 697.2 -16.4 % 697.2 694.3 -0.4 %

Squash/Syrups 85.0 7.9 % 570.3 5.0 % 570.3 5.0 % 570.3 554.0 -2.9 %

Fruit Powders 83.4 7.8 % 491.4 6.2 % 491.4 6.2 % 491.4 481.7 -2.0 %

Iced/RTD Tea Drinks 309.8 -5.8 % 1,766.9 -10.9 % 1,766.9 -10.9 % 1,766.9 1,804.8 2.1 %

Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks 50.2 -6.0 % 260.7 -10.7 % 260.7 -10.7 % 260.7 272.5 4.5 %

Sports Drinks 50.3 -11.7 % 301.2 -15.3 % 301.2 -15.3 % 301.2 294.9 -2.1 %

Energy Drinks 66.7 -12.1 % 373.5 -13.2 % 373.5 -13.2 % 373.5 380.5 1.9 %

21
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Soft Drinks Market Trends - Million Unit Cases, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Unit Cases 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Soft Drinks 516.7 -4.4 % 2,859.8 -7.3 % 2,859.8 -7.3 % 2,859.8 2,899.6 1.4 %

Packaged Water 334.5 -3.6 % 1,899.8 -6.5 % 1,899.8 -6.5 % 1,899.8 1,936.4 1.9 %

No Carbonation 334.4 -3.6 % 1,898.8 -6.5 % 1,898.8 -6.5 % 1,898.8 1,935.4 1.9 %

Regular 0.1 -22.2 % 0.9 -8.4 % 0.9 -8.4 % 0.9 1.0 2.5 %

Carbonates 32.5 -14.8 % 142.1 -10.4 % 142.1 -10.4 % 142.1 140.3 -1.3 %

Low Calorie 0.6 -19.5 % 2.5 -10.0 % 2.5 -10.0 % 2.5 2.2 -11.1 %

Regular 31.8 -14.7 % 139.6 -10.4 % 139.6 -10.4 % 139.6 138.1 -1.1 %

Juice 0.3 -1.1 % 1.3 -3.0 % 1.3 -3.0 % 1.3 1.3 -1.3 %

Nectars 6.8 2.8 % 30.9 1.2 % 30.9 1.2 % 30.9 32.2 3.9 %

Still Drinks 29.0 -3.7 % 122.8 -16.4 % 122.8 -16.4 % 122.8 122.3 -0.4 %

Squash/Syrups 15.0 7.9 % 100.4 5.0 % 100.4 5.0 % 100.4 97.6 -2.9 %

Fruit Powders 14.7 7.8 % 86.5 6.2 % 86.5 6.2 % 86.5 84.8 -2.0 %

Iced/RTD Tea Drinks 54.6 -5.8 % 311.2 -10.9 % 311.2 -10.9 % 311.2 317.8 2.1 %

Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks 8.8 -6.0 % 45.9 -10.7 % 45.9 -10.7 % 45.9 48.0 4.5 %

Sports Drinks 8.9 -11.7 % 53.1 -15.3 % 53.1 -15.3 % 53.1 51.9 -2.1 %

Energy Drinks 11.7 -12.1 % 65.8 -13.2 % 65.8 -13.2 % 65.8 67.0 1.9 %

22
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Carbonates Market Trends - Million Liters, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Liters 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Carbonates 184.4 -14.8 % 806.8 -10.4 % 806.8 -10.4 % 806.8 796.5 -1.3 %
- Regular 180.8 -14.7 % 792.9 -10.4 % 792.9 -10.4 % 792.9 784.2 -1.1 %
- Low Calorie 3.5 -19.5 % 13.9 -10.0 % 13.9 -10.0 % 13.9 12.4 -11.1 %
- Low Calorie 1.4 -24.5 % 4.5 -8.9 % 4.5 -8.9 % 4.5 4.0 -11.1 %
- Regular 45.9 -22.9 % 221.9 -13.0 % 221.9 -13.0 % 221.9 210.5 -5.1 %
Cola 47.3 -23.0 % 226.3 -12.9 % 226.3 -12.9 % 226.3 214.5 -5.2 %
- Regular 1.4 -6.6 % 6.6 -21.3 % 6.6 -21.3 % 6.6 5.8 -12.4 %
Lemon 1.4 -6.6 % 6.6 -21.3 % 6.6 -21.3 % 6.6 5.8 -12.4 %
- Low Calorie 2.1 -15.9 % 9.5 -10.5 % 9.5 -10.5 % 9.5 8.4 -11.1 %
- Regular 70.7 -5.4 % 294.9 -4.9 % 294.9 -4.9 % 294.9 305.0 3.4 %
Lemon-Lime 72.8 -5.8 % 304.4 -5.1 % 304.4 -5.1 % 304.4 313.4 3.0 %
- Regular 1.3 35.1 % 14.4 -19.3 % 14.4 -19.3 % 14.4 18.0 25.2 %
Orange 1.3 35.1 % 14.4 -19.3 % 14.4 -19.3 % 14.4 18.0 25.2 %
- Regular 52.7 -17.0 % 219.9 -13.1 % 219.9 -13.1 % 219.9 210.7 -4.2 %
Other Fruit 52.7 -17.0 % 219.9 -13.1 % 219.9 -13.1 % 219.9 210.7 -4.2 %
- Regular 3.1 -25.9 % 12.8 -16.2 % 12.8 -16.2 % 12.8 12.3 -3.6 %
Other Non Fruit 3.1 -25.9 % 12.8 -16.2 % 12.8 -16.2 % 12.8 12.3 -3.6 %
- Regular 5.7 -25.2 % 22.4 -11.9 % 22.4 -11.9 % 22.4 21.9 -2.5 %
Tonic 5.7 -25.2 % 22.4 -11.9 % 22.4 -11.9 % 22.4 21.9 -2.5 %

23
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Carbonates Market Trends - Million Unit Cases, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Unit Cases 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Carbonates 32.5 -14.8 % 142.1 -10.4 % 142.1 -10.4 % 142.1 140.3 -1.3 %
- Regular 31.8 -14.7 % 139.6 -10.4 % 139.6 -10.4 % 139.6 138.1 -1.1 %
- Low Calorie 0.6 -19.5 % 2.5 -10.0 % 2.5 -10.0 % 2.5 2.2 -11.1 %
- Low Calorie 0.2 -24.5 % 0.8 -8.9 % 0.8 -8.9 % 0.8 0.7 -11.1 %
- Regular 8.1 -22.9 % 39.1 -13.0 % 39.1 -13.0 % 39.1 37.1 -5.1 %
Cola 8.3 -23.0 % 39.9 -12.9 % 39.9 -12.9 % 39.9 37.8 -5.2 %
- Regular 0.3 -6.6 % 1.2 -21.3 % 1.2 -21.3 % 1.2 1.0 -12.4 %
Lemon 0.3 -6.6 % 1.2 -21.3 % 1.2 -21.3 % 1.2 1.0 -12.4 %
- Low Calorie 0.4 -15.9 % 1.7 -10.5 % 1.7 -10.5 % 1.7 1.5 -11.1 %
- Regular 12.4 -5.4 % 51.9 -4.9 % 51.9 -4.9 % 51.9 53.7 3.4 %
Lemon-Lime 12.8 -5.8 % 53.6 -5.1 % 53.6 -5.1 % 53.6 55.2 3.0 %
- Regular 0.2 35.1 % 2.5 -19.3 % 2.5 -19.3 % 2.5 3.2 25.2 %
Orange 0.2 35.1 % 2.5 -19.3 % 2.5 -19.3 % 2.5 3.2 25.2 %
- Regular 9.3 -17.0 % 38.7 -13.1 % 38.7 -13.1 % 38.7 37.1 -4.2 %
Other Fruit 9.3 -17.0 % 38.7 -13.1 % 38.7 -13.1 % 38.7 37.1 -4.2 %
- Regular 0.5 -25.9 % 2.3 -16.2 % 2.3 -16.2 % 2.3 2.2 -3.6 %
Other Non Fruit 0.5 -25.9 % 2.3 -16.2 % 2.3 -16.2 % 2.3 2.2 -3.6 %
- Regular 1.0 -25.2 % 3.9 -11.9 % 3.9 -11.9 % 3.9 3.8 -2.5 %
Tonic 1.0 -25.2 % 3.9 -11.9 % 3.9 -11.9 % 3.9 3.8 -2.5 %

24
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Bulk/HOD Water, Hot Drinks and Dairy Drinks Market Trends - Million Liters, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Liters 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Bulk/HOD Water 4,594.0 -2.4 % 26,068.9 -6.5 % 26,068.9 -6.5 % 26,068.9 26,571.0 1.9 %

Hot Drinks 5,194.5 -0.8 % 19,398.9 -2.9 % 19,398.9 -2.9 % 19,398.9 20,536.2 5.9 %

Hot Coffee 2,765.6 -2.8 % 9,808.5 -6.3 % 9,808.5 -6.3 % 9,808.5 10,147.6 3.5 %

Hot Tea 2,316.4 1.5 % 9,163.8 0.8 % 9,163.8 0.8 % 9,163.8 9,929.2 8.4 %

Other Hot Drinks 112.5 1.1 % 426.7 0.2 % 426.7 0.2 % 426.7 459.4 7.7 %

Dairy & Soy Drinks & Milk Alternatives 816.0 7.9 % 3,299.4 7.7 % 3,299.4 7.7 % 3,299.4 3,546.0 7.5 %

Flavored Milk 351.8 8.1 % 1,508.1 7.5 % 1,508.1 7.5 % 1,508.1 1,620.4 7.4 %

White Milk 251.4 10.1 % 894.3 10.2 % 894.3 10.2 % 894.3 984.9 10.1 %

Condensed Milk 128.7 6.5 % 549.2 6.8 % 549.2 6.8 % 549.2 589.8 7.4 %

Drinking Yogurt 61.3 5.7 % 255.1 5.7 % 255.1 5.7 % 255.1 257.3 0.9 %

Soymilk 20.2 -2.4 % 77.1 -2.2 % 77.1 -2.2 % 77.1 77.2 0.1 %

Evaporated Milk 2.6 -7.1 % 15.5 6.7 % 15.5 6.7 % 15.5 16.3 5.1 %

Source: GlobalData 25
Data Tables
Indonesia Bulk/HOD Water, Hot Drinks and Dairy Drinks Market Trends - Million Unit Cases, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Unit Cases 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Bulk/HOD Water 809.1 -2.4 % 4,591.1 -6.5 % 4,591.1 -6.5 % 4,591.1 4,679.5 1.9 %

Hot Drinks 914.8 -0.8 % 3,416.4 -2.9 % 3,416.4 -2.9 % 3,416.4 3,616.7 5.9 %

Hot Coffee 487.1 -2.8 % 1,727.4 -6.3 % 1,727.4 -6.3 % 1,727.4 1,787.1 3.5 %

Hot Tea 408.0 1.5 % 1,613.9 0.8 % 1,613.9 0.8 % 1,613.9 1,748.7 8.4 %

Other Hot Drinks 19.8 1.1 % 75.1 0.2 % 75.1 0.2 % 75.1 80.9 7.7 %

Dairy & Soy Drinks & Milk Alternatives 143.7 7.9 % 581.1 7.7 % 581.1 7.7 % 581.1 624.5 7.5 %

Flavored Milk 62.0 8.1 % 265.6 7.5 % 265.6 7.5 % 265.6 285.4 7.4 %

White Milk 44.3 10.1 % 157.5 10.2 % 157.5 10.2 % 157.5 173.5 10.1 %

Condensed Milk 22.7 6.5 % 96.7 6.8 % 96.7 6.8 % 96.7 103.9 7.4 %

Drinking Yogurt 10.8 5.7 % 44.9 5.7 % 44.9 5.7 % 44.9 45.3 0.9 %

Soymilk 3.6 -2.4 % 13.6 -2.2 % 13.6 -2.2 % 13.6 13.6 0.1 %

Evaporated Milk 0.5 -7.1 % 2.7 6.7 % 2.7 6.7 % 2.7 2.9 5.1 %

26
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Alcoholic Drinks Market Trends - Million Liters, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Liters 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Alcoholic Drinks 33.8 -9.1 % 211.1 -15.0 % 211.1 -15.0 % 211.1 214.4 1.5 %

Beer 30.5 -9.6 % 200.3 -15.1 % 200.3 -15.1 % 200.3 202.6 1.1 %

Spirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine 2.5 -4.3 % 8.0 -12.8 % 8.0 -12.8 % 8.0 8.8 8.8 %

Wine Total 0.5 -4.5 % 1.7 -13.0 % 1.7 -13.0 % 1.7 1.9 8.1 %

Flavored Alcoholic Beverages 0.1 -7.3 % 0.4 -14.5 % 0.4 -14.5 % 0.4 0.4 7.2 %

Cider 0.1 5.3 % 0.2 -2.1 % 0.2 -2.1 % 0.2 0.3 17.7 %

Sake 0.1 -4.3 % 0.2 -12.3 % 0.2 -12.3 % 0.2 0.3 9.4 %

Fortified Wine 0.0 -5.3 % 0.2 -13.3 % 0.2 -13.3 % 0.2 0.2 7.6 %

27
Source: GlobalData
Data Tables
Indonesia Alcoholic Drinks Market Trends - Million Unit Cases, 2019 - 2021F

Quarter Year To Date MAT Year

Oct-Dec %Chg Jan-Dec %Chg Dec %Chg Actual Forecast %Chg

Million Unit Cases 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 vs 2019 2020 2021 vs 2020
Alcoholic Drinks 5.9 -9.1 % 37.2 -15.0 % 37.2 -15.0 % 37.2 37.8 1.5 %

Beer 5.4 -9.6 % 35.3 -15.1 % 35.3 -15.1 % 35.3 35.7 1.1 %

Spirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine 0.4 -4.3 % 1.4 -12.8 % 1.4 -12.8 % 1.4 1.5 8.8 %

Wine Total 0.1 -4.5 % 0.3 -13.0 % 0.3 -13.0 % 0.3 0.3 8.1 %

Flavored Alcoholic Beverages 0.0 -7.3 % 0.1 -14.5 % 0.1 -14.5 % 0.1 0.1 7.2 %

Cider 0.0 5.3 % 0.0 -2.1 % 0.0 -2.1 % 0.0 0.0 17.7 %

Sake 0.0 -4.3 % 0.0 -12.3 % 0.0 -12.3 % 0.0 0.0 9.4 %

Fortified Wine 0.0 -5.3 % 0.0 -13.3 % 0.0 -13.3 % 0.0 0.0 7.6 %

28
Source: GlobalData
Dilution Ratios
Indonesia Dilution Ratios

Category Desc Physical State Desc Grams/Cl Per Liter

Carbonates Concentrate 16.67
Energy Drinks Powder 22.55
Flavored Milk Powder 150.00
Hot Tea Powder 15.62
Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks Powder 67.65
Iced/RTD Tea Drinks Concentrate 20.00
Iced/RTD Tea Drinks Powder 67.65
Juice Concentrate 20.00
Nectars Concentrate 20.00
Sports Drinks Powder 75.00
Squash/Syrups Concentrate 14.29
Still Drinks Concentrate 20.00
White Milk Powder 70.00

29
Source: GlobalData
Product Definitions
Soft Drinks

Packaged Water Bulk/HOD Water

Plain still, carbonated and low carbonated water of <=10 Liters. Plain still, carbonated and low carbonated water >10 Liters.

Enhanced Water Flavored Water

Unflavored or flavored water with added functional ingredients, eg Packaged water which has been flavored by the addition of essences
vitamins, minerals, nutraceutical-types. May be carbonated or non- and/or aromatic substances. May or may not contain sweetening agents.
carbonated. May or may not contain sweetening agents. May contain May be carbonated or non-carbonated. May contain juice up to 14.9%.
juice up to 14.9%.

Source: GlobalData 30
2
Product Definitions
Soft Drinks
Carbonates
Sweetened, non-alcoholic drinks containing carbon-dioxide. Includes
cola and non-cola flavors, regular and low calorie.
Nectars
Diluted fruit/vegetable juice and pulp, with a juice content
of 25-99.9%. Sweetening agents (eg sugar, honey, syrups and/or
sweeteners) may be added for the purposes of production. Permitted
minerals and vitamins for the purpose of fortification and permitted
additives may be added.
Source: GlobalData
Juice
100% pure fruit juice or vegetable juice with no added ingredients,
except permitted minerals and vitamins for the purpose of fortification
and permitted additives.
Still Drinks
Flavored ready to drink, non-carbonated products, which may be fruit
or non-fruit flavored and have a juice content of 0-24.9%. Sugar,
artificial flavoring and coloring may be added.
31
3
Product Definitions
Soft Drinks

Squash/Syrups Fruit Powders

Non-ready-to-drink (non-RTD)regular and low calorie products, Non-ready-to-drink (nont-RTD) regular and low calorie fruit powders.
marketed as concentrates for home consumption and flavoring.

Iced/RTD Tea Drinks Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks

Carbonated and non-carbonated ready to drink (rtd) packaged tea- Primarily non-carbonated packaged ready to drink (RTD) and non-ready
based drinks and non-ready to drink (non-rtd) powders and liquid to drink (non-RTD) coffee-based drinks which may be cold- or hot-filled,
concentrates which dilute with water to make a product based on brewed coffee or coffee extract.
similar/identical to the ready to drink product.

Source: GlobalData 32
4
Product Definitions
Soft Drinks

Sports Drinks Energy Drinks

Performance-enhancing products, described as ‘isotonic’, ‘hypertonic’ Energy-enhancing products, mainly carbonated and containing
or ‘hypotonic’, meaning ‘in balance with’, ‘lighter than’ and ‘heavier stimulants such as caffeine, taurine, guarana (the guarana seed has a
than’ body fluids, respectively. higher caffeine content than coffee), glucuronolactone, yerba mate,
along with glucose syrup (corn syrup) and maltodextrin.

Calorie Rating
Low Calorie
• Reduced calorie products marketed on a diet, reduced or low calorie platform and sweetened with high intensity agents, either single or blended.
Will be highlighted on the label as:
• Diet/light/low calorie (<20 kcal/100ml).
• Sugar-free/zero/calorie free (<4kcal/100ml).
• No (added)/low/reduced sugar (4g sugar per 100ml/approx <20kcal per 100ml).

Mid Calorie
• Reduced calorie products: >20-30 kcal/100ml. NB: included under Regular in GlobalData’s data.

Regular
• Products that are not marketed on a diet, reduced or low calorie platform. Includes mid calorie products.

Source: GlobalData 33
5
Methodology
GlobalData’s research methodology is industry-leading. The key strength of our methodology is that we work in industry partnerships across the value chain, from suppliers to
brand producers and both on- and off-premise channels. Our research is built from brand data upwards. This 'brick-by-brick' approach as well as the cross-fertilization with our
other related services, ensures that our research has an internal logic which cross-checks from all angles - from brand volume through to corporate volume, flavor
segmentation, packaging splits and channel distribution.

Sources
• Face-to-face interviews with the leading soft drinks producers, brewers, dairy, spirits and wine producers
• On-going dialogue with leading companies in allied industries
• Quarterly monitoring of product offered in all trade channels in selected markets
• Interviews with retailers and other distributors
• Company information in the public domain
• Trade press
• Trade associations
• Official production and trade statistics
34

Source: GlobalData
Forecasting Methodology
The application of advanced statistical techniques ensure rigour and accuracy in our forecasts
Improving forecast accuracy by analysing correlation between inputs over time: a four input (plus time) example for market size
STEP 1: Cross-correlation
regression of inputs over time
Time based forecast
Weather based forecast
GDP Demographic based forecast
Stimuli effect – e.g. World Cup
Time based forecast
GDP based forecast
WEATHER Demographic based forecast
Stimuli effect – e.g. World Cup
Time based forecast
GDP based forecast
DEMOGRAPHICS
Weather based forecast
Stimuli effect – e.g. World Cup
Time based forecast
STIMULI GDP based forecast
E.G. WORLD CUP Weather based forecast
Demographic based forecast
Forecasting of inputs covering both one-off and infrequent
stimuli, and other time series inputs using regression cross
correlation. This more accurately investigates relationships
both over time and between forecast inputs.
STEP 2: Bayesian techniques refine to
single-most robust forecast
FINAL GDP FORECAST
FINAL WEATHER FORECAST
MARKET
FINAL DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST
FINAL WORLD CUP STIMULI
FORECAST
Bayesian statistical techniques refine
these multiple forecasts of each input
into a single most statistically robust
forecast.
STEP 3: Cross-correlation regression
and Bayesian refinement for the final output
Time based
forecast for market size
Final GDP based forecast for
market size
FINAL
Final weather based forecast
for beer MARKET
SIZE
SIZE FORECAST
Final demographic based
forecast for market size
Final World Cup stimuli
forecast for market size
Further cross-correlation and Bayesian refinement, but
now using the new improved inputs to forecast the
output required.
35
Forecasting Methodology
Cross-correlation
When performing simple linear regression, only the
effects of data points from like years are considered, for
example the effect of 2011’s inflation on 2011’s
employment rate. However with cross-correlation, the
effect of every previous year is taken in to account, for
example the effect of 2010, 2009, 2008 etc. inflation
figures on 2011’s employment rate. This enables the
analysis of historical effects upon data points as opposed
to static analysis, producing more accurate results. To
each prediction an error term is assigned, which is utilised
in the Bayesian analysis below. This cross-correlation
technique also allows the ability to model each data point
as being dependent on its predecessor, for example
inflation in 2008 is dependent upon the GDP in 2007. In
normal linear regression, points are modelled as random
and therefore cross-correlation more resembles the real
world.
Cross Correlation
Bayesian techniques
Once the set of predictions for the parameter in
question are made using the above technique, the final
prediction is made using Bayes’ rule. The final prediction
is made utilising the fact that where the set of
prediction’s error terms overlap, there the answer must
lie. The greater the effect of a parameter on the dataset
in question, the smaller its error term. Therefore the
greater the effect a parameter has on a dataset, the
greater weighting it will have towards the final answer.
This technique eradicates the effects of anomalous data
points and predictions on final results. It also enables
accurate forecasts on as little as three data points,
allowing for predictions of new products to market.
Error term overlaps
110m 3rd prediction
100m [Anomaly is discounted]
90m
Sales Forecast
Market size granularity
When analaysing data from the GlobalData
databases, segmentation is performed at the
levels described in slide 3. The analysis outlined
above is then performed within each of these
levels, enabling the forecasting of individual
products as opposed to just the market as a
whole. For example, a premium product is likely
to perform much differently in the event of an
economic downturn as opposed to a discount
product.
Accuracy
The performance of the techniques outlined above
ensure highly accurate forecasts. This has been
proven to be within 1% year on year, making it
much more precise than other forecasting
techniques.

Inflation (%): [1.23, 1.45, 1.16]

80m
70m
Employment (%): [79.2, 81.4, 80.3] 60m 2nd prediction
50m
40m Forecast lies here
Linear Regression
Inflation (%): [1.23, 1.45, 1.16] 30m 1st prediction
20m
Employment (%): [79.2, 81.4, 80.3] 10m

36
Forecasting Methodology

GlobalData’s forecasting models use the following ‘parameters’ and ‘stimuli’:

For each country, data around 10 key parameters are gathered:

5 different stimuli are covered:
o Net disposable income per
household o Age demographic • Irregular sporting events
o Gross domestic product o Average temperature • Natural disasters
o Inflation • Political elections
o Average precipitation
o Employment rate
• Political events
o Urbanisation rate
• War, conflict and terrorist incidents
o Population o Net migration

Other specific drivers are included for different categories within industry sectors (for example country birth rates
within the baby care industry). All forecasts are conducted at the lowest possible segmentation and top lines are
calculated as the sum of all relevant segmentations. This ensures that all market fluctuations and factors are taken in to
consideration.

37
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38
Disclaimer

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The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the
findings, conclusions and recommendations that GlobalData delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from
both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, GlobalData can
accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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No. 03925319

39
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