In the name of God

After Taliban Takeover, Can Afghanistan’s Economy Survive?

The World’s Next Narco-State?

Armin Mohammadi
1. The Return of Taliban Drug Prohibition?
On August 17, 2021, less than a week after the Taliban’s capture of
Kabul, the group’s spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, announced that the
Taliban would outlaw opium production. “We will bring opium
production to zero again,” he stated, referencing the strict
prohibitionist policies of the Taliban’s previous tenure ruling the
country. “There will be no drug production, no drug smuggling.”
According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan
remains the world’s largest producer of opium which is the main
material in producing heroin. Between 2015 and 2020, the country was
responsible for an estimated 83% of global opium supply, mostly sold
across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The exact value of the
illicit trafficking is difficult to find, but there are estimates that
Afghanistan produced roughly 9,900 tons of opium in 2017, which is
worth approximately $1.4 billion,
2.Prohibition or Narco-State?
Now that the Taliban is controlling all over the Afghanistan, according
to interviews, farmers said that growing opium is now illegal, resulting
in a dramatic spike in prices across Afghanistan. However, the Taliban’s
dedication to the opium ban is unlikely for a number of reasons.
When push comes to shove, it is likely that the group will embrace the
same lesson that extremists across the world have learned which is
crime pays. they all have all involved themselves in drug trafficking to
various degrees.
Taliban is actually governing a complicated country. the economic
situation in the country finds itself is dire. Official recognition by
Western states is likely out of the question.
The Taliban leadership will likely realize that the benefits of allowing
opium production, either implicitly or explicitly, will outweigh the
drawbacks. Given the choice between surviving with drug trafficking, or
dying without it, the Taliban is likely to choose the first one
What this adds up to is an extremely dangerous situation for the West
Europe, which receives an estimated 95% of its heroin from
Afghanistan, Taliban-backed narcotraffickers would likely result in
increased supply, decreased prices, and more drug deaths. While that is
dangerous enough, the profits from this illegal activity in Europe, and
elsewhere, will be effectively financing a brutal Islamist regime, these
results will pose a serious threat to global security.
3.Many others important topics
Such as Education for Girls and Women and women's rights, and etc.

I hope that you enjoyed my lecture

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