PROF.

EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

ELECTRICAL POWER SYSTEM PLANNING -

OVERVIEW

1- INTRODUCTION

The objectives of power system planning are to provide an

orderly an economic expansion to meet the electric utility's
future electrical demand with an acceptable level of
reliability. The components of the delivery system
subtransmission lines, substations, distribution feeders, and
laterals—generally have capacities many orders of
magnitude less than the load of the entire system. Planning
of this system involves determining the correct sizes
locations, interconnections, and timing of future additions to
this equipment. Such planning is a difficult task,
compounded by recent trends of tightening design margins,
longer equipment lead times, and increasing regulator
scrutiny.
The fundamental obligation of the electric utility industry is
to provide for an adequate and reliable electric energy
supply at reasonable cost. Adequate electric energy supply
is essential in assuring a healthy economy, in providing for
the health and welfare of the nation's citizens, and for
national security. The structure of electric power or energy
is very large and complex as electricity energy is transmitted
from generating power station to consumer points via an
electrical network. Producing electrical energy in power
stations is not enough in itself, it must also be brought to the
end-user. In order to link production and consumption,
which in turn can be translated into financial benefit, a
country's electrical structure is generally broken down into
several levels that correspond to different types of electrical
networks [Figure (1-1)].
It should be noted that there no standard structure that exists
worldwide, and that the split into several networks with
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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

their corresponding voltage levels can be different from

country to country. The geographical distance between
production sites and consumer centres, the irregularity of
consumption and the impossibility of storing electrical
energy create the need for electrical power plants and
network, that are capable of directing and transmitting it
across large distances.
Therefore, the power system planning is vital to assure that
the growing demand for electric energy can be satisfied. In
the future, more than in the past, electric utilities will need
fast and economical planning tools to evaluate the
consequences of different proposed alternatives and their
impact on the rest of the system to provide the necessary
economical, reliable, and safe electrical energy to
consumers.

Fig. (1-1)

2- POWER SYSTEM PLANNING STRUCTURE

When planning for the future, the main characteristics of the

present system should be studied and data collected, e.g.
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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

electrical energy demand and peak load demand, rate of

growth of energy consumption in the last 20 years, energy
production, type of generation plant and its size,
transmission, interconnection and subtransmission systems.
Having defined the objectives and purposes of power
system planning, the various components of the integrated
planning process can now be described. The structure of
power system planning is made up of the electrical load
forecast, generation planning, transmission planning and
distribution planning as shown in Fig. (2-1)
Load forecast has always been an integer part of power
system planning. Consequently load forecasting has
achieved greater importance and more attention.
Generation expansion planning is an important planning
activity for utility companies. Its basic objective is to
determine the schedule for the construction of generation
plants, and the time of introduction for each new generation
unit into production.

POWER SYSTEM

Load Forecasting

Generation

Transmission

Distribution

Fig. (2-1)

Transmission expansion planning of electric power systems

involving the determination of where, when and which
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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

facilities must be built to guarantee an economic and

reliable supply of the predicted load.
Power distribution planning is a complex task in which
planners must ensure that there is adequate substation
capacity and feeder capacity to meet the forecasted load
demand.

3- LOAD FORECASTING

When planning to utilize the natural energy resources of a

country, it must be kept in mind that implementation takes
time and needs a lot of capital investment. Decisions must
be taken in advance for judicious and profitable investment
in various projects to make them effective useful and
economical. For this purpose, the anticipated electrical
power and energy demand should be known. The resources
available in the country for electrical power production, e.g.
for steam stations, hydro stations, nuclear stations, gas
stations, etc. can then be developed considering the
electrical power and energy requirements and the locations
or regions where demand is expected.
The forecasts may be long-term forecasts, medium-term
forecasts, or short-term forecasts. Long-term forecasts
covering a period of 20 years provide a basis for studying
the energy supply problems of the country and conversion
and substitution of different forms of primary and secondary
energy. It takes four to six years for the construction and
installation of the equipment in power stations. Medium-
term forecasts of five or six years are, therefore, very
important for planning the size of the stations. Forecasts of
demand for energy are required to estimate the additional
installed capacity required to facilitate the plant
maintenance programme and to estimate the firm capacity
of the restricted hydro plants. Short-term forecasts of one or

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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

two years are mainly of value in deciding operating

procedures, and in preparing budget estimates.
Fig. (3-1) indicates some of the factors which influence the
load forecast. As one would expect, load growth is very
much dependent on the community and its development.
Economic indicators, demographic data, and official land
use plans all serve as raw input to the forecast procedure.
Output from the forecast is in the form of load densities
(kilovoltamperes per unit area) for long-range forecasts.
Short-range forecasts may require greater detail. Densities
are associated with a coordinate grid for the area of interest.
The grid data are then available to aid configuration design.
The master grid presents the load forecasting data, and it
provides a useful planning tool for checking all
geographical locations and taking the necessary actions to
accommodate the system expansion patterns.

Fig. (3-1) Factors affecting load forecast

4- GENERATION PLANNING

When the load requirements have been determined, the next

problem is to determine the type and size of generating
stations that will be required to supply power and energy.
The selection of a site for the location of the generating
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stations depends on many factors including the cost of

transmitting the energy to the consumers, of transporting
fuel to the stations, the availability of sound foundations, the
cost of land, the availability of cooling water and the
avoidance of atmospheric pollution. Steam stations should
be located at the coal pits or as near the coal pits as possible
to avoid transport cost and time of transport. For most
economical distribution and the lowest cost of power and
energy, the power station should be located at the centre of
gravity of load, if a suitable site is available. There is a trend
for increase in the size of generator units to be used in a
large power system. This reduces the cost per kW and
improves the efficiency of the stations.
Hydro plants have transmission liability as they would be
located far from the load centres, at sites where water is
available in enough quantity at enough head. Nuclear-power
stations are designed to operate on base load with as high a
load factor as possible, preferably 90% and above. Steam
stations with high-efficiency units can be used on the next
slab of load-duration curve of the power system at high load
factor. Most of the hydro plants in large power systems are
designed for low load factor operation, e g. 25% to 30%.
Some hydro plants with ample storage are designed for 60%
load factor. The choice of the type of plant used on a portion
of the load curve of a particular power system would be
decided by the local economic conditions.
The problem is to find the optimum mix of generating plants
from among those available, to meet the load with adequate
reliability. This will depend in the quality, type, and size of
various types of plants such as conventional steam stations,
nuclear stations, rearrangement of the existing hydro
stations for modulation and gas turbine plants and pumped
storage plants for peak duty and energy transfer. The
available national resources of energy should be studied to

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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

decide which type of generating stations can be considered

for expansion of the system.
Knowing the availability of generation, characteristics of
turbines, hydraulic inflows, uncertainty of load forecasts,
etc. calculations are done using computers and the operation
of the production system is examined for a long period of 20
years. This is done by quantitative evaluation in each year
(week by week) of the reliability indexes (risk of power and
energy shortages) and of capital and operation cost. The
function to be optimized is the sum of the present worthed
costs relevant to capital, operation and risk of shortage.
Careful choice should be made of the composition and
characteristics of the generation plant and it should be
possible to continue studies quickly every time a new event
occurs such as energy crisis which may affect the
conclusions reached.
The choice of siting new thermal and nuclear plants is
studied as optimization problem using linear programming.
The points considered are costs of production, transport and
interaction with the environment down to the minimum.
Generation planning helps to identify the technology, size,
the timing of the next generating plants to be added to the
power system in order to ensure that adequate generation
capacity is available to meet future demand for electricity
and that the future cost of power generation is economical.
Therefore, the generation planning activities include (1)
generation capacity planning, (2) production costing, and (3)
calculating investment and O&M costs. In generation
planning, the planner combines load and generation models
including scheduled maintenance to determine capacity
needed to meet system reliability criterion. Whereas in
production costing, the planner determines the costs of
generating energy requirements of the system, including
effects of maintenance and forced outages. Finally, present
worth of investment and operating and maintenance costs
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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

are calculated and consequently predetermined. The

objective is the optimum generation planning that combines
the aforementioned functions into one to develop
economically optimum generation expansion patterns year
by year over the planning horizon. The variety of synthesis
tools that are available to systems planners include (1) target
plant mix, (2) expert judgment (the planner's past
experience), and (3) computer-based mathematical
programming models. Based on a given generation
expansion plan, simulation models are employed in order to
predict (1) power system reliability, (2) capital and
production costs, and (3) power plan operation for each year
of the planning horizon.

5- TRANSMISSION SYSTEM PLANNING

The major transmission requirements of a power system and

their associated costs are much influenced by the location of
future generation capacity. The object of transmission
planning is to select the most desirable transmission
network for each of the generation expansion patterns under
consideration. Both economics and reliability are considered
in the problem. The application of a digital computer in
automated transmission planning allows the system planner
to consider and investigate many alternatives quickly. The
ultimate selection of generation expansion plan is then done
by considering transmission as an integral part of the total
costs.
A basic problem in transmission line planning is the
determination of transmission adequacy under the forced
outage of various system components. A more consistent
approach to transmission planning would be to consider the
reliability. The investment in transmission improvement is
made at the most desired locations in the system, in terms of
an acceptable risk level at the various loading points.
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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

The adequacy of the transmission network is examined

using conventional ac load-flow methods. The network is
first tested for adequacy under normal operating conditions
without considering any forced outages. New transmission
facilities are added to alleviate any unacceptable bus
voltages and line or transformer overloads by separate low-
voltage logic and overload logic. The economic .generation
schedule should be included in the examination of
transmission system adequacy under both the peak-load and
off-load conditions. Reliability evaluation is done by a
selected approach and new facilities are added to alleviate
any unacceptable bus risk levels.
The transmission system planned to satisfy the bus voltages
and line loadings under normal operating conditions may be
adequate only if high risk levels are acceptable. The cost of
transmission improvements increases as higher reliability
levels are expected. The use of quantitative reliability
criterion facilitates optimum utilization of the investments in
transmission improvements. A fixed contingency criteria
without using probability values can result in higher
investment than required at some locations, if a lower
reliability can be tolerated at these points. The planner
should decide the acceptable risk level at each load point in
the system. The utilization of individual load point
reliability indices permits the planning engineer to include
the cost of maintaining these levels in alternative planning
schemes.
Transmission planning is closely related to the generation
planning. The objectives of transmission system planning is
to develop year-by-year plans for the transmission system
based on existing system, future load and generation
scenarios, right-of-way constraints, cost of construction, line
capabilities, and reliability criteria.
In general, transmission lines have two primary functions:
(1) to transmit electrical energy from the generators to the
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loads within a single utility and (2) to provide paths for

electrical energy to flow between utilities. These latter lines
are called "Tie Lines" and enable the utility companies to
operate as a team to gain benefits that would otherwise not
be obtainable. Interconnections, or the installation of
transmission circuits across utility boundaries, influence
both generation and transmission planning of each utility
involved.
When power systems are electrically connected by
transmission lines, they must operate at the same frequency,
that is, the same number of cycles per second, and the pulse
of the alternating voltage must be coordinated. As a
corollary, generator speeds, which determine frequency,
must also be coordinated. The various generators are then
said to be operating "in parallel" or "in synchronism" and
the system is said to be "stable". A sharp and sudden change
in loading at a generator will affect the frequency, but if the
generator is strongly interconnected with other generators,
they will normally help to absorb the effect of the changed
of the changed loading so that the change in frequency will
be negligible and system stability will be unaffected.
Therefore, the installation of an interconnection affects
generation planning substantially in terms of the amount of
generation capacity required, the reserve generation
capacity, and the type of generation capacity required for
operation. Also interconnections may affect the generation
planning through the installation of apparatus owned jointly
by neighboring utilities and the planning of generating units
with greater capacity than would be feasible for a single
utility without interconnections. Furthermore,
interconnection planning affects transmission planning by
requiring bulk power deliveries away from or to
interconnection substations, that is, bulk power substations,
and often the addition of circuits on a given utility's own
network.
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Fig. (6-1) Factors affecting substation expansion

6- SUBSTATION EXPANSION

Figure (6-1) presents some of the factors affecting the

substation expansion. The planner makes a decision based
on tangible or intangible information. For example, the
forecasted load, load density, and load growth may require a
substation expansion or a new substation construction. In
the system expansion plan the present system configuration,
capacity, and the forecasted loads can play major roles.

7- SUBSTATION SITE SELECTION

Figure (7-1) shows the factors that affect substation site

selection. The distance from the load centers and from the
existing subtransmission lines as well as other limitations,
such as availability of land, its cost, and land use
regulations, is important.
The substation sitting process can be described as a
screening procedure through which all possible locations for

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 PROF. EMAD SEDEEK IBRAHIM

a site are passed, as indicated in Fig. (7-2). The service

region is the area under evaluation. It may be defined as the
service territory of the utility. An initial screening is applied
by using a set of considerations, e.g., safety, engineering,
system planning, institutional, economics, aesthetics. This
stage of the site selection mainly indicates the areas that are
unsuitable for site development. Thus the service region is
screened down to a set of candidate sites for substation
construction. Further, the candidate sites are categorized
into three basic groups: (1) sites that are unsuitable for
development in the foreseeable future, (2) sites that have
some promise but are not selected for detailed evaluation
during the planning cycle, and (3) candidate sites that are to
be studied in more detail.
The emphasis put on each consideration changes from level
to level and from utility to utility. Three basic alternative
uses of the considerations are (1) quantitative vs. qualitative
evaluation, (2) adverse vs. beneficial effects evaluation, and
(3) absolute vs. relative scaling of effects. A complete site
assessment should use a mix of all alternatives and attempt
to treat the evaluation from a variety of perspectives.

Fig. (7-1) Factors affecting substation sitting

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Fig. (7-2) Substation site selection procedure

8- DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM PLANNING

Since the system variables are quite complex, it is necessary

to make a thorough analysis while planning distribution
systems. The problems to be studied in the total system
environment for the purpose are (i) selection of most
economical combination of subtransmission and distribution
voltage levels, (ii) determination of the economical sizes of
substations, and (iii) comparison of different methods of
regulating voltage. Some of the important factors that
should be considered are the actual geographical distribution
of loads, configuration of the existing system, step-by-step
expansion of the distribution system with time, and load
growth and comparative reliability of the various
arrangements.

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Distribution planning must not only take into consideration

substation sitting, sizing, number of feeders to be served,
voltage levels, and type and size of the service area, but also
the coordination of switching and protection and even
transmission planning efforts, in order to ensure the most
reliable and cost-effective system design. Today, many
distribution system planners use computer programs such as
load flow programs, radial or loop network load programs,
short-circuit programs, voltage drop and voltage regulation
programs, load forecasting, regulator setting, capacitor
planning, and others.
The planning starts at the customer level. The demand, type,
load factor, and other customer load characteristics dictate
the type of distribution system required. Once the customer
loads are determined, secondary lines are then defined that
connect to distribution transformers. The distribution
transformer loads are the combined to determine the
demands on the primary distribution system. The primary
distribution system loads then assigned to substations. The
distribution system loads determine the size and location
(sitting) of substations as well as the route and capacity of
the associated sub-transmission lines. Figure (7-1) shows
the factors that affect substation site selection. The distance
from the load centers and from the existing subtransmission
lines as well as other limitations, such as availability of
land, its cost, and land use regulations, are important.

9- ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING

Environmental planning provides information on

environmental regulations and responsibilities in order to
establish plants' type, location, and design requirements and
available fuel types. This information is used as an essential
input to generation planning to limit the available
alternatives in developing system expansion plans.
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10- FINANCIAL PLANNING

In financial planning, financial tools, such as corporate

models, are used to develop annual and monthly financial
reports and cash flow information on system expansion
(from generation planning), including tax and regulatory
constraints. It can indirectly control the generation planning
process by limiting the construction budget that the
company can afford.

Egypt: Electricity data 2001

Installed capacity (MW) Electrical energy generation
(GWH)
Peak load 12376
Hydro 2745 Hydro 13697
Thermal 12478 Thermal 64309
Wind 63 Wind 137
Total 15286 Total Generation 78143

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