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314:316.813.5(497.11)"1952/2010"
УДК 314:316.356.24(497.11)"1952/2010"
Оригинални научни рад
Марија Ивковић*1
* Универзитет у Београду – Географски факултет
Увод
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Контакт адреса: marija.ivkovic22@gmail.com
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Учесталост развода брака у Србији (1947-2010)
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Учесталост развода брака у Србији (1947-2010)
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Учесталост развода брака у Србији (1947-2010)
Регионалне разлике
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Закључак
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Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade 59 (65-76)
314:316.813.5(497.11)"1952/2010"
УДК 314:316.356.24(497.11)"1952/2010"
Original scientific article
Marija Ivković*1
* University of Belgrade - Faculty of Geography
Abstract: This paper outlines the frequency of divorce trend by analyzing the motion
of the number of divorces, the motion of divorciality rates and the number of divorces
per 1000 marriages. The phenomenon of divorciality is particularly interesting from the
demographic point of view because it affects the whole range of processes related to
population, and especially emphasizes the influence on the level of fertility. The time
frame which has been chosen is the period since 1952 by 2010, and analysis was per-
formed for Serbia as a whole and for the three macro-units, as well as the territory of
Serbia without Kosovo in order to accomplish continuity of data. The analysis was giv-
en within the wider context of matrimonial transition and second demographic transi-
tions, which have affected the area of Serbia over the past few decades.
Introduction
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Correspondence to: marija.ivkovic22@gmail.com
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Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade 59
Until 1946 the conclusion and divorce in Serbia were the responsibility
of the church and its law. That year the Law of marriage was brought, which
separated the church from the state, and thus the church marriage from the state
marriage. This law gave also the possibility of concluding the marriage in the
church, after concluding a civil marriage, so in this way the church marriage
became a private, personal matter of each individual (Kitanović, 2011).
Over the past few decades of the 20th century there was a change in family
and marriage relationships, as a consequence of a general modernization of society.
As the reasons for these changes were named sexual revolution during the sixties
of the 20th century, the emancipation of women and the process of individuation,
as part of a much broader and larger structural and social changes that have swept
like first the most developed societies, but have moved very quickly to less devel-
oped areas too (Bolčić and Milić, 2002). Marriage as a union between a man, that
provides livelihood, and a woman who takes care of the household and children,
began to lose popularity among younger generations. The beginning of the transi-
tion is associated with the area of North America and Western Europe when it
came to the fall of the universality of marriage, after the "golden era" of marriage
during the sixties, when "all grown-ups were early and happy married" (Bobić,
2003). Firstly, there was an increase in the existing marriage instability, that is rise
in divorciality, and then also a decrease in the number of marriages, that is nuptiali-
ty decline. Marriage is more and more postponing and a significant number of
people never get married. Also, as an alternative or an initial phase of marriage,
there are different forms of common life: the non-martial communities, that is co-
habitation or consensual union, LAT (Living Apart Together) and DINKS (double-
income-no-kids) form, etc. While children were once considered as an essential
part of marriage, necessary in order to achieve marital and family harmony, they
are now becoming more and more the issue of the complex process of "negotia-
tion" between the partners (Frinking, 1999).
The process described above is called the second demographic transi-
tion, although there are also some perceptions that it is actually a sequel, a later
stage of the first demographic transition. The second demographic transition
has caused the following changes at the level of individuals: a shift from mar-
riage to cohabitation, a shift from a child as the central figure of the family sys-
tem to a pair as the center of gravity, and a shift from preventive contraception
to the self-realization concept (Bobić, 2002). Despite all that has been said, it
can’t be talked about the disappearance of marriage and family, because re-
search shows that most of the both men and middle-aged woman live in a mar-
riage, even in developed countries. It can rather be concluded that marriage and
the family have experienced the transformation in terms of removing the invi-
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The Frequency of Divorced Marriages in Serbia (1947-2010)
olability aureole for the sake of which everything else had to be sacrificed, as
well as that a great number of other forms of common life has also appeared,
either as a precursor to marriage, or as his alternative.
Also, phenomena and processes that can be classified as matrimonial
transition were noticed in Serbia in the late 20th century, but they are small-
scale compared to those in the global west countries. Seen from the Second
World War, there is a downward trend in number of marriages and a decline in
a nuptiality rates. This testifies about the "prominent downward trend of un-
iversality of marriage as a formally-legally assembled community" (Bobić &
Vukelić, 2010). The general rate of nuptiality has declined from 10.9 in 1951 to
4.91 in 2010 year (Serbia without Kosmet). The declining number of marriages
and the general decline in nuptiality rates is influenced also by the age struc-
ture, that is smaller and smaller proportion of generations who usually get mar-
ried. Still, despite the unfavorable age structure, the effects of changing the sys-
tem values are much more expressed.
The process of increasing the age for getting married for both men and
for women is constant throughout the period. In central Serbia, the average age
for getting married for men has increased from 26 years as it was in 1951 to
32.8 years in 2010 year, that is for nearly 5 years. For women, an increase over
the same period is even greater - nearly 6 years (from 23.6 to 29.27). Increasing
the age for getting married for Vojvodina is somewhat less, because the aver-
age age after the Second World War in this region, due to different cultural op-
portunities, was higher.
Up to about 20-years ago in pre-marital partnerships lived mainly per-
sons who were unable to start a marriage because of various reasons. However,
during the nineties there were significant changes in marital behavior, which is
reflected on the one hand in increasing the share of cohabitation and on the
other hand in the growing share of illegitimate births, which serve as their indi-
cator. However, data from the 2002 Census show, compared with Western Eu-
ropean countries, a small proportion of multi-membered households that are
not a family (1.6% in Serbia, excluding Kosmet). It is interesting that the in-
crease of the share of the non-martial communities in recent decade was partic-
ularly large in Kosovo, which is explained by a boycott of state institutions and
the traditional practice of arranged marriages, rather than further progress in the
transformation of marriage in relation to other parts of Serbia. Upcoming Cen-
sus of October 2011 will also include legally unregistered, non-martial com-
munities, and hence will give further insight into the current situation.
As already mentioned, part of the matrimonial transition is also the in-
crease in marriage instability, which means is more divorces. In Western Euro-
pean and North American countries divorces are very frequent and divorce
rates are very high during the last couple of decades. However, the situation in
Serbia on the issue shows certain specificities.
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Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade 59
Table 1. - The number of divorces in Serbia, Serbia without Kosovo, central Serbia,
Vojvodina and Kosovo and Metohija (shortened table)
Year Serbia Serbia without Central Ser- Vojvodina Kosovo and Meto-
Kosovo bia hija
1952 6 017 5 611 3 935 1 676 406
1956 9 717 9 291 6 864 2 427 426
1961 10 609 10 130 7 055 3 075 479
1966 11 245 10 731 7 074 3 657 514
1971 10 111 9 873 6 318 3 555 238
1976 11 165 10 917 7 272 3 645 248
1981 9 797 9 517 6 206 3 311 280
1986 10 10 348 6 904 3 444 364
712
1991 8 374 8 018 5 459 2 559 354
1996 7 419 6 860 4 888 1 972 559
2001. / 7 835 5 566 2 269 /
2006. / 8 204 5 765 2 439 /
2010. / 6 644 4 605 2 039 /
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
Chart 1. - Changes in the number of divorces in Serbia and Serbia without Kosovo (see
on page 55) Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
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The Frequency of Divorced Marriages in Serbia (1947-2010)
level reaches its maximum, not only in this phase, but in the whole observed
period (1947-2010).
In the next few years there was a decline in the number of divorces,
and the minimum value was recorded in 1952, which is the minimum of the
whole period (6017 divorced marriages). Compared with 1948, the fall is about
60%. This decrease can also be interpreted as part of post-war fluctuations.
From 1952 to 1955, the number of divorces increases, and afterwards there was
a stabilization period for this indicator.
It is believed that such a large rise in the number of divorces is a result of
both the increased number of marriages and therefore a larger number of di-
vorces of these marriages in the coming years, and compensation period after the
war. On the other hand, land reclamation, industrialization and urbanization of
society, led to a gradual decline and abandoning of traditional forms of a mar-
riage model. Along with life conditions in the city, increased economic indepen-
dence of women and the liberal family relations, marriage as an institution is no
longer invulnerable. Economic activity of women leads to the fact that their for-
merly primary role of a wife, mother and housewife, now becomes only one of
the roles (Blagojević, 1997). This also causes changes in the interrelationships in
marriage and family. The economic independence of the spouses is increasing,
while their sense of responsibility towards their spouse is decreasing, which faci-
litates decision-making to independent living (Vasić, 2003).
If we compare charts for Serbia with and without Kosovo, we will notice
that both the values and the whole flow of number of divorces are very similar,
indicating little impact of values for Kosovo in terms of absolute number of di-
vorces in Serbia. The phase of increased number of divorces can be seen in all
three integral parts of Serbia, but the pace of growth is different. Particularly
large is the impact of changing the number of divorces in central Serbia on the
overall course of value changes for the whole Serbia. This derives from both the
demographic size of central Serbia and changes in the value of this indicator,
which are, compared with the other two territories, much impetuous.
The second phase (1956-1990) is characterized by relatively uniform
number of divorces, which fluctuated between 9014 (1969) and 12075 (1988),
and in most years is about 10000. During this phase, which is generally quite
uniform, can be singled out period with slightly lower values in the early 70's,
and the period with higher values in late 80's. This is also a period of relatively
stable socio-economic circumstances. The socialist way of doing business,
economic and social stability, the involvement of women in the public sphere,
and other factors have made the divorce widely accepted. Consistent and stable
number of divorces in this period is characteristic of all parts of the country.
The third phase ("the crisis wave") (1991-2000) in movement of the
number of marriages, is characterized by a sudden drop in value. The data show
that in 1991, in Serbia occurred 8372 divorces, which is 31% less than the values
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of only two years ago (or 8018 in Serbia, excluding Kosovo, which is 32% less
than 1988). Decline in the number of divorces is the result of fundamental changes
that have occurred in that period on the territory of former Yugoslavia. Civil war,
followed by the collapse of the economy, political and social uncertainty, led to the
strengthening of patriarchy to one side, and reduced opportunities for independent
living, on the other. Therefore, the basic cause of the apparent increase in stability
of marriage is a general collapse of the socialist society and economic recession of
the state, and, since 1991, civil war. It is known for the existential threat to streng-
then traditionalism in marriage, and the economic dependence of parents, makes
children and safety, the traditional elements of marriage preservation, are gaining
in importance (Petrović, 1994). Larger, stable, and therefore strengthens families
certainly represented one way to, emotionally and financially easier, overcome the
crisis and unstable times. In subsequent years the number of divorces is still declin-
ing and in 1994. reaches the value of the 6657 (6358 in Serbia without Kosmet).
With the exception of 1951, that is the minimum value in the whole observed pe-
riod. The fall in percentage, compared to the value of only 6 years ago (1988), is as
high as 45% (or 46% for Serbia without Kosmet). It is notable that the absolute
values and percentages for Serbia with and without Kosmet have almost no differ-
ent as a result of consistently small number of divorces in this province.
The fourth phase (2000 - 2010) comes with the stabilization of political
and economic situation in the country, leading to the creation of favorable predis-
position for divorce. The number of divorces in this phase is on the rise, but the
values are still far below those that were typical of "stability phase". The maximum
value, well above the value of other years, is recorded in 2002. This deviation from
the more or less uniform values that dominate in the several previous and subse-
quent years can be explained by a similar effect as in the 1948. Rearranging the
economic and political situation in the country, leads to the compensatory effect,
and realization of the divorces which were delayed in the previous period.
The year 2010th should also be set aside because in this year happened a
decline in value by 25% over the previous year. Such a large decline after several
years of fairly uniform number of divorces, still cannot be explained with certain-
ty, due to the lack of distance in time. It is possible that part to the cessation of
"compensation period" after the 90's when the divorce was less when after the
2000s there is an increase. Also, do not ignore the impact of the global economic
crisis in 2009. in reducing the number of divorces. Data of divorces in 2011 and
next years will show whether this was a random deviation from the general trend
of growth and stabilization, or the new decline trend had begun.
Regional differences
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The Frequency of Divorced Marriages in Serbia (1947-2010)
rate periods are visible. Changes in number of divorces in Kosovo and Metohi-
ja have a different character; the changes are smaller and it’s harder to recog-
nize and separate mentioned phases.
Values for central Serbia have a dominant influence on the values for
the whole country, so the curve of changes has almost identical shape. The first
phase is characterized by peak in 1948, when the number of divorces reaches
even 10,350, and then in the next four years falls for 62%, so in 1952. is only
3935. After these rapid oscillations conditioned with the aforementioned post-
war compensation and its side effects, (comes) there is an equalization of the
number of divorces in the next 35 years. In "stability phase" values generally
range between 6 and 7 thousand (minimum is 5731 in 1983, a maximum of
8140 is in 1988). The period of decline starts in 1991. with increase to 5459
divorces, and the minimum value is recorded in 1994. (4444 divorces). The
decrease, compared to the values from 1988, is amounts 45%. Since then, the
number of divorces increases, with particularly high value (7449) in the 2002.
The trend of increasing disturbers the figure for 2010 when it comes to a sharp
decline in divorces (4 605, which is about 38% less compared to 2002).
Chart 2. - Changes in the number of divorces in central Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo
and Metohija (see on page 58)
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
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The divorce rate shows the number of divorces per 1000 inhabitants
in the middle of the observed period and is an important indicator for monitor-
ing the frequency of divorce. But its disadvantage is that not just frequency of
divorce has an effect on it, but also age and sex structure. For this reason it is
not good for comparison of areas with different age structure. Also, since it
puts the ratio of divorces in one year and the total population at mid-year, that
way are included all persons who do not belong to the marital contingent, as
well as all categories of marital status: married, divorced, widowed and those
who live in celibacy.
Change of divorce rate in Serbia has the same course as the changes
in the number of divorces. The rate reached highest value (2.2) in the 1948 and
then in only four years dropped to 0.87. From 1952 to 1990 the rate fluctuated
between 1.08 (1969) and 1.45, ranging mainly between 1.3 and 1.4. After that
came the period of decreasing. The minimum value was reached in 1994 and
was only 0.67. Data after 1996 for Serbia without Kosmet show that since 2000
the there is the growth of rate, and it is stabilized in recent years around 1.
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The Frequency of Divorced Marriages in Serbia (1947-2010)
Table 2. – The divorce rates for Serbia, Serbia without Kosovo, central Serbia, Vojvo-
dina and Kosovo and Metohija (shortened table)
Year Serbia Serbia Central Vojvodina Kosovo and
(without Kosmet) Serbia Metohija
1952. 1.28 1,36 1,32 1,49 0,61
1956 1,33 1,45 1,48 1,37 0,50
1961 1,39 1,51 1,46 1,66 0,50
1966 1,40 1,55 1,41 1,91 0,46
1971 1,19 1,37 1,20 1,82 0,19
1976 1,26 1,47 1,34 1,83 0,17
1981 1,05 1,23 1,09 1,63 0,18
1986 1,11 1,32 1,19 1,68 0,20
1991 0,85 1,02 0,94 1,26 0,18
1996 0,75 0,88 0.84 0,99 0,26
2001. - 1,04 1,00 1,10 -
2006. - 1,11 1,07 1,22 -
2010. - 0,91 0,79 1,03 -
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
Chart 3. - Changes in divorce rate in Serbia and Serbia without Kosovo (see on page
60) Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
Given the general change of divorce rates, we can conclude that there
are the same phases as in the change of numbers of divorces. However, values
from the period of stability are still not reached, and generally there is down-
ward trend.
Chart 4. - Changes in the divorce rates in central Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo and
Metohija (see on page 61)
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
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Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade 59
and 2, while for central Serbia vary between 1.0 and 1.5. Consistently higher
rates in Vojvodina are results of much advanced process of transformations of
marriage models, from traditional to modern matrimonial type.
The values of divorce rate for Kosovo and Metohija are significantly
lower compared to two other parts of Serbia. Throughout the period (1947-
1997) rate does not exceed 1 promil, and in nearly half of the period ranges
below 0.5. The rate reached a maximum value in the 1948. (0.92) and the low-
est value (0,14) is recorded in 1987.
Table 3. - The number of divorce in 1000 concluded marriages in Serbia, Serbia with-
out Kosovo, central Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo and Metohija (shortened table).
Year Serbia Serbia Central Vojvodina Kosovo and
without Kosmet Serbia Metohija
1952. 81,15 83,94 78,72 99,40 55,62
1956. 158,45 167,10 172,41 153,70 74,44
1961. 151,12 161,37 158,45 168,48 64,50
1966. 162,68 176,27 163,30 208,28 62,33
1971. 129,89 147,71 130,19 194,16 21,62
1976. 155,45 177,35 162,97 215,25 24,15
1981. 140,97 165,33 147,69 213,04 23,46
1986. 166,58 197,55 178,84 249,96 30,53
1991. 145,12 177,61 162,00 223,55 28,19
1996. 140,12 168,53 164,56 179,24 45,66
2001. / 189,22 183,59 204,64 /
2006. / 206,36 197,06 232,26 /
2010. / 185,51 174,25 217,22 /
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
Chart 5. - Changes in the number of divorces per 1000 concluded marriages in Serbia
and Serbia without Kosovo (see on page 62)
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
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The Frequency of Divorced Marriages in Serbia (1947-2010)
Chart 6. - Changes in the number of divorces per 1000 concluded marriages in central
Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo and Metohija (see on page 63)
Source: Demographic statistics for relevant years, RZS, Belgrade
Conclusion
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