Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

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Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

Nonlinear Science, and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/chaos

Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear

Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters
Agus Kartono∗, Siti Solekha, Tony Sumaryada, Irmansyah
Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, IPB University (Bogor Agricultural University), Jalan Meranti, Building Wing S, 2nd
Floor, Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The exchange rate is the price of the currency from one country against the currency of another country
Received 16 February 2021 so that the exchange rate can be valued or expressed in the currency of another country. The exchange
Revised 3 August 2021
rate movement is a serious concern by the government as the monetary authority to supervise and con-
Accepted 4 August 2021
trol it. The exchange rate system is determined by the market mechanism because the demand and sup-
ply of the foreign currency are on the financial market, making its movements more difficult to predict.
Keywords: In this study, the prediction of the exchange rate of the United States Dollar (USD) to the Indonesian
Inflation Rupiah (IDR) is modeled using the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) calculated by the fourth-order
Interest rate Runge-Kutta. The parameters contained in the NLSE can be analogous to economic variables which as-
Nonlinear
sume that these variables affect the exchange rate. These economic variables include the inflation rates,
Return
the interest rate, the rates of return, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The NLSE model is applied
Asset
to predict the (IDR/USD) exchange rate. The NLSE model is calculated using the numerical method of
the fourth-order Runge-Kutta, then the prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate are compared
with the actual data from the (IDR/USD) exchange rate resulting in an error percentage of under 2.5% per
month. The prediction results based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value calculation is
0.48%. The MAPE value shows that the smaller the MAPE value, the prediction results of the exchange
rate will be closer to the data from the actual exchange rate.
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the out-of-sample exchange rate using economic fundamentals. In

In international trade, the exchange rate plays an important role
because the exchange rate is an important macroeconomic variable
that can be used as a parameter to determine competitiveness at
the international level. In addition, the exchange rate shows the
global economic position of a country because the exchange rate
of a country is also a barometer of international competitiveness. It
will result, the volatility of the exchange rate of a country has a se-
rious influence on the government as a policymaker, as well as for
investors, companies, and consumers. The behavior of the exchange
rate is important to understand because it is needed to formulate
a country’s policies that aim to achieve macroeconomic stability in
an economy. Uncertainty in the behavior of the exchange rate will
disrupt the macroeconomic stability that has been determined by
a country [1].
It has become an interesting challenge to research international
financial issues, namely to develop a reliable prediction model of
∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: akartono@apps.ipb.ac.id (A. Kartono).
general, three approaches have been taken by these early mod-
els. First, an empirical model approach for estimating the exchange
rate by conditioning only one type of economic fundamentals, for
example, the interest rate or inflation rate. Second, the model ap-
proach combines several economic fundamentals into a single pre-
dictive regression. Third, the model approach involves combining
several predictive models composed of several predictive regres-
sions with each conditional on one type of economic fundamen-
tals. The several models become a single predictive combination.
Although the exchange rate does not exactly follow a random path
in the predictive regression models, the researchers still hope that
there is a time series random walk model that can predict both
inside and outside a large enough sample [2–5].
Based on empirical theory in the context of the market model,
the price in the market model reflects the available information
of economic fundamentals, although the price change in one or
more days is not statistically new information because it has not
been proven significantly. However, the model that can determine
the relationship between price and information is the random walk
model [6]. Samuelson [7,8] has proposed a general stochastic price
change model, this theorem of the model concludes that price dif-

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111320
0960-0779/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al.
ferences in future periods are shown to be uncorrelated with price
differences in previous periods. The actual trades behave according
to a certain probability model so it is not too surprising if future
price changes are found. Therefore, prices vary with the changing
factors of supply and demand. The fixing of a price depends on so
many factors and also the fixing of prices appears to be random. If
the demand (or supply) curve it faces is the result of multiple in-
dependent sources of variation, each of which is limited or small,
then the quantity produced may behave like a random walk. Based
on this theory, analysis has been carried out assuming that prices
fully reflect all available information, however, this is a hypothesis
and does not explain how agents think about their environment,
how they learn to process information, and so on [9].
Today, the research of exchange rate plays an important role
in helping economic development in a country. A stable exchange
rate can be achieved if macroeconomic variables are also stable, it
will give the economy credibility of a country to local and foreign
trading partners. Fluctuations of the exchange rate in a country
have a direct influence on macroeconomic variables. It is supported
by study findings from the literature so that it will provide new in-
sights about the relationship between exchange rate and macroe-
conomic fundamentals that will help the central bank of a coun-
try to monitor the effect of these macroeconomic variables on ex-
change rates. In this study, one of the objectives is to assist policy-
makers to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between
macroeconomic variables and the exchange rate [10,11].
The relevance of macroeconomic variables to determine the ex-
change rate has been suggested by several studies published since
the 1980s [12–16]. Co-integration techniques and data sets devel-
oped since the 1980s have greatly improved the ability to estimate
long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables and the
exchange rate. Because the behavior of the short-term exchange
rate is also influenced by macroeconomic factors, the macroeco-
nomic variables approach is also used to determine the exchange
rate approach. In this study, several macroeconomic variables will
be used to analyze exchange rate movements:
1.1. Gross domestic product (GDP)
In general, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as the econ-
omy’s output which is calculated at a constant price over a period,
generally for one year. The GDP is used as nominal output because
the nominal output does not match the price level which always
fluctuates during a certain time so it does not reflect the actual
movement of nominal output. There is a relationship between the
GDP and the exchange rate because the GDP of a country is a
nominal output consisting of all goods and services produced by
a country, then all these goods and services are sold in interna-
tional trade within a certain time so that an increase in GDP will
decrease the exchange rate. International trade is very concerned
with determining the exchange rate because the exchange rate af-
fects the costs of trading all these goods and services. Exchange
rate fluctuations can also affect some commodities traded interna-
tionally, so the degree of fluctuation can be seen from the size of
the ratio of imports to GDP in a country.
A country experiencing exchange rate depreciation will increase
its national output level, because of the economic strategy to in-
crease and sustain its national economic activities. In an open eco-
nomic system, the contribution of exports is very important for a
country to increase its GDP, the depreciation of the exchange rate
will provide an opportunity for the country to increase its exports
to many countries. Cheap export goods can stimulate the country
to increase its output in the economy. The increase in output is not
only to meet the demands of the foreign market but also the local
market. The positive influence of the exchange rate must be a stim-
ulator for a country to increase its national output. However, the
2
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320
movement of the exchange rate still needs to be watched out for
in managing its economy, this is to ensure that no prolonged and
excessive depreciation will cause the loss of confidence in other
countries to invest in the country [17–19].
1.2. The inflation rate
The increase in the price level of goods and services in an
economy is inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. It
means that if there is an increase in prices or inflation, it means
that there is a depreciation of the domestic currency. When the
inflation rate in the country is high, the domestic currency will
decrease in value and vice versa. The inflation and exchange rate
are correlated, if a country experiences high inflation, the currency
value will show a decline and vice versa. Thus, an increase in the
exchange rate will indicate a loss in the value of the domestic cur-
rency. The countries with consistently low inflation rates will have
stronger exchange rates than countries with higher inflation rates
[20–23].
1.3. The interest rate
A lower interest rate in a country will encourage investment so
it will increase the country’s economic growth, while an increase
in interest rate will reduce investment. A decrease in investment
will reduce economic growth. In-country interest rate plays an im-
portant role in determining the exchange rate. In general, the inter-
est rate will be adjusted quarterly by the central bank, this is part
of economic management. If inflationary pressure occurs in the
country, the central bank will increase the basic lending rate to re-
duce the money supply among the public and companies which is
to make borrowing expensive. Assuming that the increase in inter-
est rate in the country will match the currencies of other countries
so that will create a balance in the demand and supply of money
which will cause the exchange rate to move to a state of equilib-
rium. If the two countries (domestic country and foreign country)
simultaneously raise or lower interest rates together, then it will
not affect the exchange rate caused by the interest rate. The inter-
est rate is an important factor that affects the exchange rate.
The interest rate and inflation rate are the most significant fac-
tors to influence exchange rate fluctuation. Therefore, an increase
in the interest rate of the domestic currency will increase the
amount of currency held in the country, so a higher interest rate
will lead to higher returns as well so that the demand for domestic
currency will increase. This condition will cause the appreciation
of the domestic currency against the currency of foreign countries.
Based on the analysis that there is a negative relationship between
exchange rates and interest rates, this will appear as a result of in-
flationary shocks. Based on the analysis above, there is a negative
relationship between exchange rates and interest rates if there is
an increase in inflation in a country [24–26].
1.4. The rates of return
The exchange rate is the relative price between two assets (the
currency of the domestic country and the foreign country), the ex-
change rate itself can be considered the price of an asset. The ba-
sic principle of determining an asset price is that the present asset
value will depend on the purchasing power of the asset in the fu-
ture. The way to evaluate an asset is that savers will see the rate
of return it offers as expected, this means that the level of the in-
vestment value of an asset is expected to increase over time. The
savers are very concerned about and expect the real rate of return
of an asset and the level of asset value that is expected to increase.
When the return rates of assets are relatively relevant, such as in
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al.
the foreign exchange market, then it is most appropriate to com-
pare the expected changes in the exchange rate of currencies as
assets. The value of these assets can be expressed in the same cur-
rency but reviewed at different times. The return rates of deposits
traded on the foreign exchange market depend on the interest rate
and changes in the exchange rate during the deposit period [27,28].
The concept of modern financial theory has been put forward
by Fisher Black and Myron Scholes who presented a differen-
tial equation to estimate pricing options, this theory is commonly
called the Black-Scholes model [29]. Then the non-linear bivariate
asymmetric GARCH model is used for pricing the exchange rate op-
tions. Based on the GARCH model, the Black-Scholes model also is
applied to estimate the price of the exchange rate options, the sim-
ulation result shows that the Black-Scholes model performs better
than the GARCH model when pricing currency options [30]. Al-
though the phenomena of financial markets are almost identical
to quantum mechanics, the Schrödinger equation is much more
flexible than a more quantum mechanics model [31]. Contreras
and co-authors [32] have reviewed from a quantum mechanics
point of view that the Black-Scholes equation can be interpreted
as the Schrödinger equation of a free particle for an imaginary
time. Whereas in more general quantum physics, Haven [33] has
used the Black-Scholes model to regulate the pricing option. Then
Contreras and co-authors [34] have proposed a new Black-Scholes-
Schrödinger model to derive a more general quantum model of
option pricing, this model formulates option pricing by combin-
ing the potential associated with the random dynamics of the un-
derlying asset price and the time-dependent external forces. Haven
[35] has shown that the option pricing of the Black-Scholes which
is correlated with the Schrödinger equation can change the mean-
ing of the extended bit into a qubit so that the ’0 and ’1 states are
the base states of the bits so the qubits are a linear combination of
these base states. The quantum model can be calibrated on a case-
by-case basis, it is hoped that the development of the Schrödinger
equation can have different new applications to the econophysics
model. Therefore, this research will contribute to the application
of the Schrödinger equation related to the Black-Scholes model to
predict the movement of the exchange rate.
The exchange rate is very difficult to estimate, even though
the ex-post historical simulations have been used. This is because
economists’ understanding of what variables determine the ex-
change rate is very limited. Then research to estimate the exchange
rate has shifted towards a linear and nonlinear long-term rela-
tionship of the exchange rate. The prospect of a linear and non-
linear exchange rate model based on the results of the estimated
variant of the monetary model is promising. However, researchers
are more interested in nonlinear models. Chinn [36] has summa-
rized several research results from the linear model to determine
the exchange rate but the results were disappointing. Although the
overall results are not uniformly negative, they are not convincing
enough to suggest such a theoretical model. The prediction algo-
rithm of the nonlinear model does not only consistently excel in
the sample, but the nonlinear model outside the sample also pro-
duces the best estimate. This confirms that the nonlinear model
is an optimal exchange rate prediction model. Based on the analy-
sis of the literature, this study will use the nonlinear Schrödinger
equation (NLSE) to predict the dynamics of exchange rate move-
ment.
In the last decade, the solution of the NLSE has received such
substantial attention that it has become an interesting subject of
research. A special case of an NLSE solution that has its physi-
cal characteristics is multiple solitons, they are a stable, localized,
particle-like object, and they can keep their shape, amplitude, and
velocity unchanged during their propagation [37]. In the nonlin-
ear process of optical solitons, the nonlinear resonance Schrödinger
equation is a form of NLSE that appears in the fluid dynamics of
3
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320
Madelung. This optical soliton is a structure that plays an impor-
tant role in solitons and pulse propagation in nonlinear optical
fibers. The application of the optical solitons and the solution of
the periodic functions obtained play an important role in describ-
ing and understanding the dynamics of the various processes of
time evolution [38]. The Radhakrishnan-Kundu-Lakshmanan (RKL)
equation can also serve as an alternative model to describe the
propagation of light pulses. These pulses are optical solitons that
can represent the theory of soliton phenomena from instant pho-
tonics, optical fibers, condensed matter physics, nonlinear optics,
and plasma. Therefore, the RKL equation is composed of nonlinear
differential equations so that numerical methods play an impor-
tant role in solving the solution of these equations. The numeri-
cal method of the general exponential rational function (GERFM)
is a method to obtain the solution of the new soliton [39]. The
solutions of solitons composed of generalized NLSE with time-
dependent coefficients are interesting to study because they are
closer to the naturalistic state and have a wide variety of soliton
structures than classical solitons. Besides, the solutions also show
that there are more effective, more reliable, and simpler for solv-
ing various types of nonlinear differential equations. They can also
convert NLSE into ordinary differential equations by transforming
complex waves into a set of nonlinear algebraic equations. In the
future, the solutions of the new optical solitons are likely to assist
research in various fields of optics, such as the internet and com-
puter data security in modern telecommunications systems [40].
The NLSE solutions have characteristics such as stable local parti-
cles because they can keep their shape, amplitude, and velocity un-
changed during their propagation. In addition, the NLSE solutions
in the form of nonlinear differential equations are also proven to
be more effective, more reliable, and easier to solve because they
can be converted into ordinary differential equations. Therefore, in
this study, the NLSE is related to the Black-Scholes model will be
applied to predict the movement of the foreign currency exchange
rate so that this research will also contribute to new applications
of the NLSE in the econophysics model.
The Schrödinger equation in quantum mechanics is the same
as the second Newton law of motion in classical mechanics. They
can illustrate how physical systems will change over time. In gen-
eral, classical mechanics has position and momentum information
on all particles at all times (t) to provide a complete description of
the system. Whereas in quantum mechanics, information about the
system is contained in the Schrödinger equation solution which
will produce the wave function ψ (x, t ). Then the square of the
absolute value of the wave function ψ |(x, t )|2 gives the probabil-
ity density to find the particle at position x. The calculations of
the Schrödinger equation are also possible to find the wave func-
tion of a multi-particle system quantitatively, so that information
of the position and momentum of these particles can be known. It
is possible to describe an economic system in the same way as a
physical system with the Schrödinger equation through the wave
function solution to explain the behavior of economic systems.
The intensive exchange of information in the financial world is
one of the main sources of determining exchange rate dynamics.
Electronic trading is also the most important part of exchange rate
dynamics, as this causes a huge flow of information on trading, in-
cluding trading on the foreign exchange market. In this study, the
approach developed is based on the assumption that information
on the foreign exchange market is described by financial waves
ψ (x, t ). This deterministic approach will be developed for predict-
ing exchange rate dynamics influenced by the psychology of for-
eign exchange market players who make an important contribu-
tion to the financial wave ψ (x, t ). The financial wave ψ (x, t ) can
explain the effect of information from the exchange rate configura-
tion x on the behavior of foreign exchange market participants so
that ψ (x, t ) can contain exchange rate information.
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

Some literature [33,35,41,42] has discussed the application of partial differential equations. The most common form of express-
the elements of quantum physics to financial problems. This re- ing NLSE is:
search will contribute to the application of quantum mechanics
∂ψ (x, t ) h ∂ 2 ψ (x, t )
beyond the micro world. Because quantum mechanics will be ap- i =− + V (x, t )ψ (x, t )
plied to predict the dynamics of the exchange rate in the foreign
∂t 2m ∂ x2
+ β|ψ (x, t )| ψ (x, t ),
2
exchange market. This research will also develop the formation of (3)
the new NLSE as a phase space for exchange rate changes to de- The NLSE contains many specific cases that depend on the spe-
scribe the evolution of the exchange rate. In this research, the dy- cific choice of its nonlinear forms |ψ (x, t )|2 , and an external po-
namics of foreign exchange rates will be derived from the transfor- tential V(x, t). The best-known cases are power type, |ψ (x, t )| p ,
mation of the Black-Scholes equation to the NLSE of a free parti- or polynomial type, α1 |ψ (x, t )| p1 + α2 |ψ (x, t )| p2 .
cle which will be interpreted from the point of view of quantum The quantum probability or probability density functions are
mechanics as a probability value. The parameters of the NLSE are solutions for the time-dependent linear and nonlinear Schrödinger
assumed to be macroeconomic variables that affect the foreign ex- equation, this corresponds to the market value of the stochastic
change rates, such as the interest rate, the rates of return, inflation differential equation with the standard Wiener process for deter-
rate, and the GDP. This NLSE prediction model will be applied to mining stock options for market values that can be considered. The
determine the (IDR/USD) exchange rate. Then, the prediction result NLSE governs the evolution of complex-valued wave functions and
of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate will be compared with the actual their square values |ψ (x, t)|2 defines the probability density func-
data of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate. The new NLSE model will be tion.
solved using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta numerical method.
This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 is divided into 2.2. The transformation of the Black-Scholes model into the nonlinear
4 subsections. Section 2.1 describes the linear Schrödinger equa- Schrödinger equation
tion, then adds a nonlinear term to the Schrödinger equation, so
that the equation becomes NLSE. Section 2.2 derives the process of In this study, several mathematical operations will be used to
transforming the Black-Scholes model into the linear Schrödinger convert the Black-Scholes equation into the Schrödinger form. This
equation, then adds the wave function of the exchange rate and transformation makes it possible to use interpretations of quan-
the absolute square representing the probability function of the tum mechanics to explain the problem of determining exchange
exchange rate at any given time to become NLSE. Section 2.3 de- rates. The quantum method seems to apply to the real-world econ-
scribes the parameter analogy between macroeconomic variables omy by applying conventional macroeconomic variables to the
that affect exchange rates and the parameters of the NLSE. Further- Schrödinger equation. Therefore, conceptual innovation is needed
more, Section 2.4 describes in detail the numerical method used from quantum mechanics is based on an analogy with economic
to solve the NLSE, namely the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. theory so it needs to change the Black-Scholes equation to the
Section 3 shows and discusses the exchange rate prediction results Schrödinger equation.
of the new NLSE model. In the final section, Section 4 concludes The classic financial option pricing can be used partial differen-
all the prediction results and discussions. tial equations of Black-Scholes which commonly describe the time
evolution of the market value of stock options [43]. Formally, for
the function, ψ = ψ (s, t) is defined in the domain 0 ≤ s < ∞, 0 ≤
t < T that describes the market value of stock options at stock pric-
2. Methods
ing (assets). The Black-Scholes equation can be written as follows:
2.1. The nonlinear Schrödinger equation
∂ψ (s, t ) σ 2 s2 ∂ 2 ψ (s, t ) ∂ψ (s, t )
=− − rs + rψ (s, t ), (4)
Quantum mechanics can show advantages in exploring its ap-
∂t 2 ∂ s2 ∂s
plication in financial markets. This makes it possible to observe where the parameter σ ∈ R, σ > 0, shows the volatility of stock
trajectories of pricing dynamics or pricing changes, such as trajec- returns while the parameter r ∈ R represents the annual risk-free
tories explained by the mathematical equations of quantum me- interest rate that is continuously added (interest rate strength) and
chanics. The equations of quantum particle motion in the quan- T > 0 is the maturity of stock options. This formulation assumes
tum mechanics model will be presented with an orientation to that Brown’s movements fundamentally have the same behavior as
economists and mathematicians who are not very familiar with stock movements.
quantum physics, so all calculations will be presented in detail. The The standard Black-Scholes equation will be transformed into
linear Schrödinger equation for free particles can be expressed as the linear Schrödinger equation so that new variables need to be
follows: introduced to begin the transformation of the equation,
y = ln(s ), y ∈ R, (5)
∂ψ (x, t ) h ∂ 2 ψ (x, t )
i =− , (1) it will be obtained,
∂t 2m ∂ x2
∂ψ (s, t ) 1 ∂ψ (s, t )
while the dynamics of the wave function ψ (x, t) for explaining the = , (6)
∂s s ∂y
linear Schrödinger equation with an external potential can be pre-
sented as follows: and
   
∂ 2ψ ∂ 1 ∂ψ 1 ∂ψ 1 ∂ 2ψ ∂ y 1 ∂ 2ψ ∂ψ
∂ψ (x, t ) h ∂ ψ (x, t )
2
= =− 2 + = 2 − ,
i =− + V (x, t )ψ (x, t ), (2) ∂ s2 ∂s s ∂y s ∂y s ∂ y2 ∂ s s ∂ y2 ∂y
∂t 2m ∂ x2
(7)
where ψ (x, t ) represents complex-valued functions that can con-
by using Eq. (6), Eq. (3) that represent the Black-Scholes equation
ventionally interpret probabilistic ψ (x, t) in a field.
will take the form,
The application of NLSE can appear in various fields as de-  2 
scribed by references [37-40]. The study of this equation has made ∂ψ σ 2 ∂ 2ψ σ ∂ψ
=− + − r + rψ , (8)
the development of new ideas and even mathematical concepts in ∂t 2 ∂ y2 2 ∂y
4
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

Eq. (8) will be expressed as another one to match the form of at a certain time. In natural quantum units, the NLSE is expressed
the linear Schrödinger equation, so a new variable x is introduced, as follows:
  ∂ψ (s, t ) 1 ∂ 2 ψ (s, t )
σ2 i =− σ + V (s )ψ (s, t ) + β|ψ (s, t )| ψ (s, t ),
2
x=y− r−
2
t, (9) ∂t 2 ∂ s2
(18)
the linear Schrödinger equation assumes that the variable y does √
where i = −1 and V(s) + β |ψ (s, t)|2
represents total potential
not depend on time, while data related to financial markets indi- energy with V representing external potential, while the Landau
cate that the stock price s depends on time so the stock price al- coefficient β can be interpreted as an adaptive market potential
gorithm described by the variable y must also be time-dependent. which in the simplest non-adaptive scenario is equal to the interest
The variation of the variable y using the time-dependent part pro- rate r and/or control parameters where the frequency coefficient
duces a new variable x that is time-dependent. This procedure is dispersion r represents volatility which can be either a constant or
needed to reproduce real market behavior and a similar approach stochastic process itself.
has been used in the literature [44, 45] so that the calculation of
new first-order partial differential equation is as follows: 2.3. The parameters analogy of the macroeconomic and the nonlinear
∂ψ ∂ u ∂ y Schrödinger equations
ψx = = , (10)
∂x ∂y ∂x
This first research considers that the NLSE is assumed to have
the new second-order partial differential equation is given by: no external potential, V = 0. Eq. (18) or the NLSE is assumed to
    have a low-interest rate r, β (r) << 1, so Eq. (18) can be approxi-
∂ 2ψ ∂ ∂ψ ∂ ψx ∂ ψx ∂ y ∂ ∂ ψx ∂ y ∂ y
= = = = (11) mated by the linear Schrödinger equation. Therefore, the exact so-
∂ x2 ∂x ∂x ∂x ∂y ∂x ∂y ∂y ∂x ∂x lution for Eq. (18) can be approximated by the following function:
because ∂∂ yx = 1 and using Eq. (9), then Eq. (11) can be simple to
∂ 2 u = ∂ 2 u . Determine the variable y from Eq. (9) then use it to cal-
ψ (s, t ) = φ (q )ei(ks−ωt ) , (19)
∂ y2 ∂ x2
where the variable φ (q) ∈ R is an unknown function and depends
culate the time-dependent partial derivative of the option price:
  on q = s − σ kt while k, ω ∈ R is a constant parameter. These
∂ψ ∂ψ ∂ y ∂ψ σ 2 parameters in the field of physics are respectively interpreted as
= = r− , (12)
∂t ∂ y ∂t ∂y 2 wave numbers and angular velocity. Substitute Eq. (19) to calculate
Eq. (18) so that it is obtained as follows:
then inserting Eqs. (11) and (12) into Eq. (8) to obtain:  
∂ψ (s, t ) ∂φ (q ) i(ks−ωt )
∂ψ σ 2 ∂ 2ψ i = ωφ (q ) − ikσ e , (20)
2 =− + rψ , (13) ∂t ∂q
∂t 2 ∂ x2
to transform Eq. (13) which represents the linear Schrödinger form,
 
1 ∂ 2 ψ (q, t ) 1 ∂φ (q ) ∂ 2 φ (q ) i(ks−ωt )
then a new variable τ defined as imaginary time will be introduc- − σ = σ k2 φ (q ) − 2ik − e ,
2 ∂ q2 2 ∂q ∂ q2
ing with the Wick rotation so it gets:
(21)
τ = −it (14)
Finally, Eq. (13) can represent the linear Schrödinger equation, β|ψ (q, t )|2 ψ (q, t ) = β|φ (q )|2 φ (q )ei(ks−ωt )−2Im(ks−ωt ) , (22)
  where the symbol Im represents the definition of the imaginary
∂ψ 1 σ 2
∂ 2ψ r
i =− + ψ, (15) part of complex numbers k, s, ω, t is real so that it is obtained,
∂τ 2 2 ∂ x2 2
Im(ks − ωt ) = 0, (23)
Eq. (15) can be interpreted as the linear Schrödinger equation
(or Eq. (1)) for a free particle of mass equal to, It is known that φ (q) > 0 will result,

2 |φ (q )|2 φ (q ) = φ (q )3 , (24)
m= , (16)
σ 2
then Eqs. (23) and (24) are substituted into Eq. (22) so that it is
or as the linear Schrödinger equation (or Eq. (2)) for a particle that obtained as follows:
interacts with a constant potential, β|ψ (q, t )|2 ψ (q, t ) = βφ (q )3 ei(ks−ωt ) . (25)
r
V = , (17) Finally, Eq. (20), (21), and (25) are included in Eq. (18) so that
2 a final equation can be calculated numerically:
∂ 2 φ (q )  
Eq. (15) is presented in natural units so that the constant h = 1
1 2
unit, this is commonly used to simplify the notation in particle + ω − σ k φ (q ) − βφ (q )3 = 0, (26)
physics. The above pieces of evidence explain that it is possible to ∂ q2 2
use quantum mechanics in describing option pricing. This shows Eq. (26) is a second-order ordinary differential equation that
that it is possible to write the Schrödinger equation for the se- describes a nonlinear oscillator. In this study, the solution of
lected option. this equation will be calculated by the fourth-order Runge-Kutta
Essentially, the nature of financial markets is efficient and their method.
complex nonlinear behavior then the adaptive prediction model of The currency exchange rate of a country can fluctuate because
exchange rate s is described in nonlinear waves with stochastic it is influenced by the demand and supply of that country’s cur-
volatility σ and interest rate r. The NLSE is used as a model in this rency. The movement of the fluctuating exchange rate can be anal-
study. The equation formally defines a complex equation, the wave ogous to the Schrödinger wave function because the Schrödinger
function of the exchange rate is ψ = ψ (s, t) and its absolute square wave function (φ ) has an irregular (random) wave motion to repre-
|ψ (s, t)|2 represents the probability function for the exchange rate sent moving free particles. The parameters in Eq. (26) are assumed

5
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

Table 1
The analogy between the NLSE parameters and the economic variables that affect the exchange rate.

Nonlinear Schrödinger equation parameters Economic variables

Wave function (φ ) The movement of the exchange rate

Dissipation (σ ) The inflation rates
Wavenumber (k) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Coefficient of Landau (β ) The interest rate
Angular frequency (ω ) The rates of return
Position variable (q) The exchange rate at a certain time

to be variables affecting the exchange rate. The parameters of the them. This research will use the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algo-
NLSE are analogous to macroeconomic variables, such as the vari- rithm [46].
able φ describes the movement of the exchange rate, the parame- The development of the algorithm starts for a single function
ter σ represents the inflation rates, the parameter β represents the of one variable, φ (q, t ), which gives a first-order differential equa-
interest rate, q (the position of the particle in quantum) represents tion. Suppose that φ (q, t) satisfies the following ordinary differen-
the exchange rate at a certain time, the parameter ω represents tial equation:
the rates of return from the exchange rate, and the parameter k
dφ
represents GDP. Table 1 provides an analogy between the NLSE and = f (q, t ), (27)
dt
economic variables.
The inflation rate is the process of increasing and decreasing Solution approaches in finite difference methods will "dis-
prices that occur in a country in a certain period. A low infla- cretize" the t-variable. The easiest method for measuring the t-
tion rate that tends to be stable will create the economic growth variable by using the same t-variable space, δ = t. Then the se-
expected by all countries, if the high inflation rate will cause a lected t value will be indexed by integers i: ti = i × δ , this is to
decrease in purchasing power, this will affect the GDP value of a represent the t-variable from zero to some maximum value (imax )
country. The inflation rate is analogous to the parameter σ or dis- of the t-variable. The continuous function φ (t ) becomes an array
sipation, which is one of the constants that affect the parameter k φ (i ) = φ (ti ). The ordinary differential equations are transformed
in the NLSE. In general, the value of GDP changes in the long run into discrete algebraic equations containing φ (ti ).
(for example one year) but GDP does not change in the short-run Therefore, this study will not calculate a first-order ordinary
(for example one month), this variable is analogous to the param- differential equation but a second-order ordinary differential equa-
eter wave number k, so this parameter based on the scaling of the tion, so a second-order ordinary differential equation will be
NLSE has a constant value. A high GDP value will cause the ex- converted into two first-order ordinary differential equations. To
change rate to stabilize and will weaken the value of foreign cur- demonstrate this algorithm, a second-order ordinary differential
rencies. equation which is written as follows,
The interest rate is one of the variables that also affect the ex- d2 φ
change rate, the greater the interest rate will increase the demand = F (q, vq , t ), (28)
dt 2
for domestic currency and investment from domestic investors or
where F (q, vq , t ) represents a second-order ordinary differential
foreign countries so that the currency value or the country’s ex-
change rate will increase, this variable is analogous to the coeffi- equation and vq = dq dt
represents the "velocity" of a particle be-
cient of Landau (β ) in the NLSE. The rate of return of exchange cause vq (t ) is considered a function of time, two equations are ob-
rates also affects exchange rates. The rate of return is the results tained as follows:
obtained from an investment. The rate of return affects assets from d vq
= F (q, vq , t ), (29)
the exchange rates because the greater the average rate of return, dt
the greater the profit so that the exchange rate will increase. The
rate of return from the exchange rate is analogous to the angular dq
= vq . (30)
velocity (ω) in the NLSE. Because angular velocity (ω) is a scalar dt
measure of the rate of rotation and is usually expressed in units The most commonly used fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm
of radians per second. The higher the angular velocity, the greater is used to calculate the ordinary differential equations with ini-
the rate of return. Angular velocity is usually called the angu- tial values that must be known. This algorithm provides computing
lar frequency because the parameter ω is related to frequency (f). with high accuracy at all times. The two differential equations to
The final variable affecting the exchange rate is the previous ex- be calculated are represented by Eqs. (29) and (30). The algorithm
change rate. The previous exchange rate can determine the future for Eq. (29) is as follows:
exchange rate, whether the exchange rate increases or decreases in
value. This variable is analogous to the position variable (q) in the k1 = δ F (t, vq , q ),
NLSE. Implicitly, this variable also acts as a "time" variable in nu-
merical integration so that this "time" variable can also determine k2 = δ F (t + δ /2, v q + k 1 / 2 , q + k 1 / 2 ),
the position of a particle within the quantum at any given time.

k3 = δ F (t + δ /2, v q + k 2 / 2 , q + k 2 / 2 ),
2.4. The numerical method
k4 = δ F (t + δ /2, vq + k3 , q + k3 )
The ordinary differential equations are often found in the field
of physics because natural law often has a simple form when ex-
vq (t + δ ) = vq (t ) + (k1 + 2k2 + 2k3 + k4 )/6,
pressed in changes in very small variables. Many ordinary differen-
tial equations do not have "simple" analytic solutions in the form of while the algorithm for Eq. (30) is the same as the algorithm
known functions, so numerical methods need to be used to solve for Eq. (29) by changing the vq -variable to be the q-variable. The

6
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

Table 2
Data of the economic variables affecting the (IDR/USD) exchange rate for 13 months in the period from February 2018 to February
2019. The economic variables are used as data input for the parameters of the NLSE, namely angular frequency (ω), dissipation
(σ ), coefficient of Landau (β ), and wavenumber (k) for the calculation of the NLSE every month.

Month and Year The rates of return (ω) The inflation rates (σ ) (%) The interest rate (β ) (%) GDP (k) (billion USD)

February 2018 0.00003 3.18 4.25 1042.17

March 2018 3.7887 × 10−6 3.40 4.25 1042.17
April 2018 9.8216 × 10−6 3.41 4.25 1042.17
May 2018 5.6340 × 10−6 3.23 4.75 1042.17
June 2018 3.5740 × 10−5 3.12 5.25 1042.17
July 2018 8.4393 × 10−7 3.18 5.25 1042.17
August 2018 1.8019 × 10−5 3.20 5.50 1042.17
September 2018 1.6449 × 10−5 2.88 5.75 1042.17
October 2018 2.0687 × 10−5 3.16 5.75 1042.17
November 2018 -6.6356 × 10−4 3.23 6.00 1042.17
December 2018 1.0596 × 10− 5 3.13 6.00 1042.17
January 2019 -2.9497 × 10−5 2.82 6.00 1119.25
February 2019 -7.7630 × 10−7 2.57 6.00 1119.25

fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm has a reduced error of δ 5 so
that it will get a good level of accuracy in each computational time.
The predicted calculation of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate for
one month (4 weeks) requires actual data of the (IDR/USD) ex-
change rate for one week or actual data of the (IDR/USD) exchange
rate on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday from the previous month. The actual data for this
week is initial values (initial input). The exchange rate calculation
assumes that data of the exchange rate on Saturday and Sunday
follows data of the exchange rate on Friday because there is no ac-
tivity in the foreign exchange market and banking on those two
days. Likewise, data of the exchange rate on the holiday uses data
of the exchange rate on the previous day. The prediction calcula-
tion for the following month is carried out using the same proce-
dure, but the initial values (initial input) are taken from the pre-
diction result for the last week of the previous month. This pre-
diction procedure can be done continuously for several months
as desired. The economic variables that affect the exchange rate
during one month to predict the exchange rate for one month
are taken from Bank Indonesia (https://www.bi.go.id) and other
sources (https://tradingeconomic.com). All data from these vari-
ables are shown in Table 2. The economic variables in Table 2 are
the input of a dissipation (σ ), a wavenumber (k), a coefficient of
Landau (β ), and an angular frequency (ω) for the calculation of
the NLSE each month.
The prediction results of the present exchange rate model will
be compared with the actual data of the exchange rate is obtained
from the source (https://www.bi.go.id) then calculate the absolute
error value from the actual data of the exchange rate and also cal-
culate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value to evalu-
ate the accuracy of the predicted results from the present model.
The MAPE value indicates how much error is predicting when
compared to the actual data. The MAPE values are calculated us-
ing the following equation:
n |Xi −Yi |
i Xi
× 100%
MAP E = , (31)
n
where Xi represents the actual exchange rate, Yi represents the
predicted exchange rate and n is the total amount of data.
3. Results and discussion
Fig. 1 shows the predicted results of the (IDR/USD) exchange
rate calculated by Eq. (26) and the actual data of the exchange

Fig. 1. The curve of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate transactions from the prediction results (solid red line) and actual data (solid blue line) during the period February 2018 to
February 2019. The actual data of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate is sourced from Bank Indonesia (https://www.bi.go.id). The vertical axis defines the change in the IDR price
amount that is the same as the one USD (1 USD) price and the horizontal axis represents time on a one-day scale.

7
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320

Table 3 day. In Fig. 1, the prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange

The highest percentage of errors in the (IDR/USD) exchange
rate are calculated for 13 months, from February 2018 to February
rate prediction during the period from February 2018 to
February 2019. This error (%) is based on the calculation of 2019. The economic variables affecting the exchange rate for the
Eq. (32) and the biggest daily error in each month is shown 13 months from February 2018 to February 2019 are taken from
in this table. Bank Indonesia (https://www.bi.go.id) and other sources (https:
Month and Year Highest error (%) //tradingeconomic.com), all data are shown in Table 2.
In Fig. 1, the curve can show that the accuracy between the
February 2018 1.36
actual data and the prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange
March 2018 0.75
April 2018 0.62 rate from February 2018 to October 2018 is good. The actual data
May 2018 0.95 and the predicted results show depreciation. Depreciation is the
June 2018 1.46 decrease in the domestic currency of the country against the cur-
July 2018 1.46
rencies of foreign countries in the current period compared to the
August 2018 0.78
September 2018 1.04 previous period. On the other hand, the actual data and the pre-
October 2018 1.35 dicted results from the values in the period September 2018 to
November 2018 1.72 February 2019 show that the domestic exchange rate has appreci-
December 2018 1.24 ated. Appreciation is defined as an increase in the currency of the
January 2019 2.15
domestic country against the currencies of foreign countries in the
February 2019 1.02
current period compared to the previous period. In this study, the
prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate have error per-
centage values that are all below 2.5%. It is based on a comparison
rate for comparison based on the source: https://www.bi.go.id. In between the exchange rate of the prediction results and the actual
Fig. 1, the prediction results of the exchange rate require the input data daily:
of initial data from the actual exchange rate during the previous  
week or the actual exchange rate on Monday, Tuesday, Wednes- actual data − prediction result
er ror (% ) = × 100% . (32)
day, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, this data is the ini- actual data
tial values. The calculation procedure for the following months is
calculated in the same way, but the initial values of data are in- The percentage of errors from the prediction results in ev-
putted from the prediction results of the previous exchange rate. ery month from February 2018 to February 2019 can be seen in
The prediction calculation of the exchange rate for every month Table 3. Table 3 shows that the highest percentage of errors oc-
assumes that the exchange rate data on Saturday and Sunday fol- curred in January 2019, namely 2.15%. This is because the move-
lows the exchange rate data on Friday because there are no eco- ment of the exchange rate in January 2019 fluctuates quite a bit so
nomic and banking activities on those two days. The exchange rate that the prediction results from the NLSE model have the largest
data on holidays also use exchange rate data from the previous error value.

Table 4
The prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate in January 2019 and January 2020 were obtained from the NLSE model calculated using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta
method. The actual data of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate is obtained from Bank Indonesia (https://www.bi.go.id). This table shows the actual data and the prediction results
of the price of one USD (1 USD) to the IDR price. The error is calculated using Eq. (32).

Date Actual exchange rate Predicted exchange rate Error (%) Date Actual exchange rate Predicted exchange rate Error (%)

1 January 2020 13832 13815.64 0.11 1 January 2019 14409 14317.63 0.63
2 January 2020 13864 13804.14 0.43 2 January 2019 14393 14301.63 0.63
3 January 2020 13849 13792.64 0.41 3 January 2019 14402 14285.68 0.81
4 January 2020 13849 13792.64 0.41 4 January 2019 14278 14269.71 0.06
5 January 2020 13849 13792.64 0.41 5 January 2019 14278 14269.71 0.06
6 January 2020 13891 13797.57 0.67 6 January 2019 14278 14269.71 0.06
7 January 2020 13849 13787.07 0.45 7 January 2019 14031 14276.56 1.75
8 January 2020 13864 13774.58 0.65 8 January 2019 13961 14260.58 2.15
9 January 2020 13791 13763.08 0.20 9 January 2019 14049 14244.61 1.39
10 January 2020 13743 13751.58 0.06 10 January 2019 14023 14228.64 1.47
11 January 2020 13743 13751.58 0.06 11 January 2019 14006 14212.67 1.48
12 January 2020 13743 13751.58 0.06 12 January 2019 14006 14212.67 1.48
13 January 2020 13639 13756.51 0.86 13 January 2019 14006 14212.67 1.48
14 January 2020 13586 13745.01 1.17 14 January 2019 13982 14219.51 1.70
15 January 2020 13636 13733.51 0.70 15 January 2019 14014 14203.54 1.35
16 January 2020 13590 13722.02 0.97 16 January 2019 14083 14187.57 0.74
17 January 2020 13580 13710.52 0.96 17 January 2019 14087 14171.59 0.60
18 January 2020 13580 13710.52 0.96 18 January 2019 14111 14155.62 0.31
19 January 2020 13580 13710.52 0.96 19 January 2019 14111 14155.62 0.31
20 January 2020 13586 13715.45 0.95 20 January 2019 14111 14155.62 0.31
21 January 2020 13590 13703.95 0.84 21 January 2019 14141 14162.47 0.15
22 January 2020 13610 13692.45 0.60 22 January 2019 14150 14146.49 0.02
23 January 2020 13558 13680.95 0.91 23 January 2019 14117 14130.52 0,10
24 January 2020 13564 13669.46 0.78 24 January 2019 14070 14114.55 0.31
25 January 2020 13564 13669.46 0.78 25 January 2019 14092 14098.58 0.05
26 January 2020 13564 13669.46 0.78 26 January 2019 14092 14098.58 0.05
27 January 2020 13544 13674.38 0.96 27 January 2019 14092 14098.58 0.05
28 January 2020 13579 13662.89 0.62 28 January 2019 13968 14105.42 1.00
29 January 2020 13566 13651.39 0.63 29 January 2019 14028 14089.45 0.44
30 January 2020 13584 13639.89 0.41 30 January 2019 14041 14073.48 0.23
31 January 2020 13594 13628.39 0.25 31 January 2019 14002 14057.51 0.40

8
A. Kartono, S. Solekha, T. Sumaryada et al.
The curve pattern formed in Fig. 1 does not show any signifi-
cant difference between the prediction results and the actual data,
it means that the prediction results show conformity with the ac-
tual data pattern of the exchange rate. This is also shown by the
results of the very small MAPE value of 0.48% because the greater
the MAPE value generated, the more volatile the exchange rate
movement. Fluctuating exchange rate movements will affect the
results of the exchange rate prediction and the resulting error rate.
Too large a fluctuation will result in a large error value.
Table 3 shows the highest error of the daily (IDR/USD) exchange
rate prediction during the period February 2018 to February 2019
from the NLSE model calculated uses the fourth-order Runge-Kutta
method. Based on the results of the error value, the prediction re-
sults of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate produce a good prediction ac-
curacy because the smaller the error value obtained, the more the
(IDR/USD) exchange rate predicted to be closer to the actual data.
This means that the NLSE can be used as a good prediction model
for foreign currency exchange rates. The fluctuating movements of
the foreign currency exchange rate can be explained by the NLSE
wave function well. This wave function has economic variables that
affect the exchange rate so that the wave movement becomes free-
moving, moves irregularly, and fluctuates following the movement
of the foreign currency exchange rate.
Table 4 shows the prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange
rate in January 2019 and January 2020 in the form of the daily pre-
diction obtained from the NLSE model calculated uses the fourth-
order Runge Kutta numerical method. It is to further explain the
prediction results obtained in Table 3. In Table 4, the prediction
results of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate in January 2019 produced
the highest daily error value of 2.15%, while the prediction results
in January 2020 produced the highest daily error value of 1.17%.
Based on this error value, the prediction results of the (IDR/USD)
exchange rate using the NLSE model produce good prediction ac-
curacy even though this model is used for a prediction period of
one year.
4. Conclusions
This study has proposed a new NLSE model with parameters
analogous to macroeconomic variables that affect the foreign ex-
change rate, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, the rates
of return, GDP, and previous exchange rates. The movement charac-
teristics of the exchange rate in a country can be understood from
macroeconomic variables using the NLSE model. This model can be
useful for predicting the exchange rate in the next few months and
even over the next year so that the prediction results can be used
by policymakers or the government, investors, companies, and con-
sumers.
The NLSE model for predicting the foreign currency exchange
rate can be formed into an ordinary differential equation to sim-
plify the solution of this equation. One of the numerical meth-
ods of the ordinary differential equations which proven accuracy
is the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method because this method can
be used to calculate an equation using the known initial value. In
this study, the initial exchange rate is the exchange rate of one
week or the exchange rate on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thurs-
day, Friday, while the exchange rate on Saturday and Sunday is
the same as the exchange rate on Friday. This numerical solution
can describe the time evolution of the exchange rate prediction
for one month and one year into the future. The used numerical
solution to predict the movement of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate
produced the prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate for
13 months from February 2018 to February 2019 have a relatively
small daily error percentage when compared to the data actual
of the (IDR/USD) exchange rate. The prediction results of the ex-
change rate as a whole also produce prediction results that are
9
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 152 (2021) 111320
close to the actual data, it is based on a small MAPE value. The
accuracy of the daily prediction results of the (IDR/USD) exchange
rate was also demonstrated well during the January 2019 and Jan-
uary 2020 periods.
The robustness of the method proposed by this study is that
the NLSE model is also a popular and relatively simple model to
be widely used in describing the evolution of the nonlinear fluid
waves because this method is more effective when very steep fluc-
tuations of fluid waves occur. Based on the Hamiltonian theory
of the fluid, the fluid dynamic equation is also not much modi-
fied when converted into a wave equation [47]. The application of
this method to the general case of fluid seems to conform to the
well-known Schrödinger equation. The dynamics of a fluid mov-
ing randomly with fluctuating velocity can also be described using
the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation. The equation consists
of a nonlinear partial differential equation so that the numerical
solution of the nonlinear equation is solved using a finite differ-
ence method called the Crank-Nicolson method [48]. The numeri-
cal method used to solve the solution of a linear partial differen-
tial equation with boundary value problems is still very difficult so
that it is almost impossible to solve a nonlinear partial differen-
tial equation with boundary value problems without applying the
numerical method.
The NLSE model is formed from the linear Schrödinger equation
by adding nonlinear terms, namely the exchange rate wave func-
tion, ψ (x, t ), and the absolute quadratic function, | ψ (x, t ) |2 .
These functions are probability functions of the exchange rate at a
certain time. These functions also explicitly define the dynamics of
the exchange rate probability wave function. Based on the numeri-
cal solution, it can be concluded that the addition of the nonlinear
probability function has reliable accuracy to predict the exchange
rate at a certain time.
The new model has been applied to predict the (IDR/USD) ex-
change rate and because all foreign exchange trades can be carried
out in financial markets, it is hoped that this model can be applied
to predict the exchange rates of other foreign currencies. Therefore,
the application of the NLSE model is very broad, it is hoped that
the model can be developed into different new applications in the
field of the econophysics model.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships which have or could be per-
ceived to have influenced the work reported in this article.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Agus Kartono: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing – orig-
inal draft. Siti Solekha: Data curation, Software, Visualization. Tony
Sumaryada: Investigation, Supervision. Irmansyah: Writing – re-
view & editing.
Acknowledgement
This study was supported by grants from the Directorate of Re-
search and Community Service, Directorate General of Research
and Development Strengthening, Ministry of Research, Technol-
ogy and Higher Education, Indonesia by the Letter of Agree-
ment for the Implementation of Research Programs Number:
2018/IT3.L1/PN/2021 dated 15 March 2021.
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