Chapter 4

Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 73
CHAPTER 4
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
4.1 BASIC CONCEPT
Uncertainty is all around us and we often come across real-life situations when we have to
decide on making a choice from the available options. Questions like “Will it rain? Do I need to
carry an umbrella today?” or “Will there be a rise in taxes? Which party will win the election this
time?” All these situations demand a decision from us and this is the time when probability
theory comes to our rescue. From weather forecasts, opinion polls to making business
decisions, the concepts of probability come in handy at various aspects of our daily lives. What
are the chances?
Probability is the likelihood or chance of something happening. Probabilities are associated with
situations involving doubt or uncertainty about the outcome. Probability and statistics are related
in an important way. Probability is used as a tool: allows you to evaluate the reliability of your
conclusions about the population when only sample information available. Probability can be
expressed as fractions, decimals or percentages.
Examples:
There is a 80 percent chance of rain tomorrow.
The probability of having a boy for a normal birth is 0.5.
The chance of contracting a rare blood disease is 1/100000.
4.1.1 Basic Statistics Terms
Terms Definition
A process which generates a well-defined outcome that is not predictable in
Experiment advance but where we do know all the possible outcomes.
Sample space/ The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Sample points
A subset of the sample space consists of the collection of outcomes that we
are interested in. An event that cannot be decomposed is called a simple
Event
event.
Example :
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

Roll a die 1, 2,3,4,5,6 S={1,2,3,4,5} Getting number 2
Record the grades of
A, B, C, D, E, F S={A,B,C,D,E,F} Getting “B”
an examination
Tossing a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S={HH,HT,TH,TT} Getting a head
Record the condition of
Good, defective S={Good,Defective) Defect product
product
The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space of
the experiment .In other words, it can be thought as a set of different possible outcomes
and each outcome can be thought of as a point, or an element in the sample space.
Thus the concepts of set theory provide a natural context for the development of
probability theory. The basic ideas and notation of set theory will now be reviewed.
4.1.2 Set Theory
Set
Set is a collection of distinct objects, considered as an object in its own right. Each
object in the set is called the element of the set. The elements of a set, also called its
members, can be anything: numbers, people, letters of the alphabet, other sets, and so
on. Sets are conventionally denoted with capital letters. ϵ is a symbol used to denote
“element of” a particular set. If “a”is a member (or element) of A, we write a ϵ A.
Universal set is a set that contains all elements under consideration. Universal set is
denoted by ξ or S.
Example:
A is a set of odd numbers so A = {1,3,5,7,…}
3ϵA
Null set
A set that has no element is called the null set or empty set. It is denoted by the symbol
ø or { }
Subset
Suppose that A and B are two subsets and every element of A also belongs to set B.
Then A is called subset of B, or A is said to be contained in B, which is written as:
A⊆B or B⊇A
A = B if and only if A ⊆ B and B⊆ A.

4.1.3 Operation of Set Theory
Venn Diagram
A Venn Diagram is a pictorial representation of sets where sets are represented by

enclosed areas in plane.
Unions
If A and B are two sets, the union of A and B is defined to be the set containing
all element that belong to A alone, to B alone, or both A and B. The notation for
the union of A and B is A⋃B.For any set A and b, the union has the following
properties:
AUB =BUA AUA=A
AUø=A AUS=S
Intersections
If A and B are any two sets, the intersection of A and B is defined to be the set
that contains all outcomes which belong both to A and to B. The notation for the
intersection of A and B is A∩ B.
For any sets A and B, the intersection has the following properties:
A∩B=B∩A A∩ A = A
A∩ø=ø A∩S=A
Complements
The complement of set A is defined to be the set that contains all elements in
the universal set S which do not belong to A. The notation for the complement of
A is 𝐴′ or𝐴̅ or 𝐴𝑐
For any set A, the complement has the following properties:
(𝐴′ )′ = 𝐴 ∅′ = 𝑆 𝑆′ = ∅
𝐴′ ∪ 𝐴 = 𝑆 𝐴′ ∩ 𝐴 = ∅
Mutually Exclusive
Suppose that A and B are two sets. A and B are mutually exclusive sets if
A∩ B = 0.
Example:
Out of forty students, 14 are taking English Composition and 29 are taking
Chemistry. Draw a Venn Diagram and answer the following questions.
a) If five students are in both classes, how many students are in neither class?
b) How many are in at least one of the class?
Solution:
a) Two students are taking neither class.
b) There are 38 students in at least one of the classes.
Example:
The data from a survey of 140 students showed that 37 study physics, 103 play
a sport and 25 do neither. Create a Venn diagram to illustrate the data collected
and then determine the number of students who
i) study physics and play a sport.
ii) only play a sport but do not study physics.
Solution:
Physics Sport
25 78
12
25
i) 25 students study physics and play a sport
ii) 78 students play a sport but do not study physics.

4.2 COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS
4.2.1 Multiplication Rule
In a sequence of n events in which the first one has 𝑘1 possibilities, the second event
has 𝑘2 possibilities, the third has 𝑘3 and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the
sequence of n operations will be
𝑘1 × 𝑘2 × 𝑘3 × … … … × 𝑘𝑛
Use this method when specific placement is required.
Example :
Ahmad is required to wear clothes that are black and white to work. He owns 4
pairs of black pants, 5 white shirts and 2 black shoes. How many different
outfits can he wear from his wardrobe?
Example :
Suppose a student has to choose one of each of the following courses as

elective: 3 different history courses, 4 different literature courses and 2
different science courses. How many ways can she choose the courses as her
elective?
4.2.2 Permutation Rules
Permutation: The arrangement of objects with regard to order or arrangement of objects

in different orders. The order of the arrangement is important!!
The number of permutation of n different objects is n!.
Example :
In how many ways can the letters in the word “PRIZE” be rearranged to form
different words?
Example :
A family has 4 boys and a girl.
a) Find the number of ways they can sit in a row.
b) How many ways are there if the girl must sit in the middle?
The number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time is
n 𝒏!
Pr =(𝒏−𝒓)!
Example :
A class has 12 male and 15 female students. A committee of three students

consists of a class representative, a treasurer and a secretary is to be formed.
a) In how many ways can the committee be formed?
b) In how many ways can the committee consists of all males?
The number of permutations of n objects of which 𝒏𝟏 are of one kind, 𝒏𝟐 are of
a second kind,………𝒏𝒌 are of a kth kind, and 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 + 𝒏𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝒏𝒌 = 𝒏 is

𝒏!
𝒏𝟏 ! 𝒏𝟐 !….𝒏𝒌 !
Example :
How many different ways to arrange all these flags in a row?
Example:
In how many ways can we rearrange the letters below to form different words?
The number of permutations of n different objects selected with repetition from a

set of n different object is 𝒏𝒏
Example :
Given a set of numbers: 7,4,5,1
How many 4-digit numbers can possibly be formed from the given set if each
digit can be used with repetition?
The number of permutations of r different objects selected with repetition from a

set of n different object is 𝒏𝒓
Example :
Given a set of numbers: 2, 3, 4, 7
How many 3-digit numbers can possibly be formed from the given set if each
digit can be used with repetition.
4.2.3 Combination Rule
Combination: The arrangement of objects without regard to order.
The number of combinations of r objects selected from a set of n different objects is
n 𝑛!
Cr =(𝑛−𝑟)!𝑟!
Example :
20 students attend their annual gathering. 5 students will be chosen at random to

receive door prizes. The prizes are all the same. How many different groups of
five students can be chosen?
Example :
From a collection of 10 books, 3 are to be chosen as references for the students.

In how many ways can the 3 books be chosen?
4.2.4 Partition Rule
The number of ways in which a set of n distinct objects can be partitioned into k subsets
with n1 objects in the first subset, n2 objects in the second subset,…..,and nk objects in
the kth subset is
𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 !….𝑛𝑘 !
Example:
In how many ways can seven students attending a convention be assigned to

one triple and two double hotel rooms?
4.3 PROBABILITY RULE AND COMBINATION OF EVENTS
A probability is a numerical measure of the chance that an event occurs. If an event is denoted as A, then
the probability of event A occurring is denoted by P(A).
RULES OF PROBABILITY
1. Each probability must lie between 0 and 1.

0  P(A)  1
2. The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S equals 1.

P (S) = 1
3. The Complement Rule

P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
4. If A1, A2, A3….. is a finite or infinite sequence of mutually exclusive events of S, then
P(A1 A2 A3 ….) = P (A1) + P( A2) + P( A3) +…
If A is an event and P(A)= 0, then A is an impossible event.
If P(A) = 1, then A is a sure event.

4.3.1 Definition of probability
Classical Method
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴
Probability of an event A = P(A) = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑛(𝐴)
= 𝑛(𝑆)
Example:
A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of getting at least one tail?
Solution:
Let H=head, T= Tail , A= event of getting at least one tail
Sample space S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}
n(S) = 4
Event A= {HT,TH,TT}
n(A)= 3
𝑛(𝐴) 3
P(A) =𝑛(𝑆) = 4
Example:
A family has three children. Find the probability that exactly two of the
three children are girls.
Example :
A rental car service facility has 8 foreign cars and 10 domestic cars
waiting to be serviced on a particular Saturday morning. There are so few
mechanics working on Saturday and only 6 cars can be serviced. If the 6
cars are chosen at random, what is the probability that 3 of the cars
selected are domestic and the other 3 are foreign cars?
Solution:
The total number of all possible outcomes = n(S) =18C6 =18567
Number of outcomes in A = n(A) = 8C3 x 10C3 = 6720

𝑛(𝐴) 6720
So P(A) =𝑛(𝑆) = 18567 = 0.3619
Relative frequency concept of probability

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑡
Probability of an event A = P(A) = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
Example :
A sample of 2000 licensed drivers revealed the following number of violations:
Number of violations Number of drivers

0 1700
1 120
2 80
3 40
More than 3 60
What is the probability that a particular driver in this sample has:

a) no violations
b) two or three violations
Example :
A survey of 35 students at the ABBY College of Business showed the following

majors:
Major Number of students

Finance 10
ICT 8
Management 12
Marketing 5
Suppose a student is selected at random from this college. What is the

probability that his or her major is:
a) Management?
b) Finance or Marketing?
c) not ICT?
4.3.2 Addition Rule
Non-Mutually Exclusive Event
P (A or B) = P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
Example:
2 1 1
Two events A and B are such that (𝐴) = 5
, 𝑃(𝐵) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 2.
Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
Example:
In a certain town, 80% of the households own a car, 45% own a house
and 35% own both a car and a home. Calculate the probability that a
household in this town selected at random owns at least a car or a home.
Mutually Exclusive Event
If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then
P(A or B) = P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
Example:
A sample of employees at BB’s Company was selected to determine their

retirement plans. Those selected in the sample were divided into management
and production. The result were:
Employee Retirement Plans

Pension Scheme KWSP Scheme Total
Management 10 20 30
Production 40 80 120
Total 50 100 150
An employee is selected at random from this sample. What is the

probability that
a) he or she is from management.
b) he or she is from production and has KWSP scheme.
c) he or she is not from management or has a pension scheme.
4.3.3 Multiplication Rule
Independent Event
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. A and B are independent
events if
P(A and B)= P(A∩B) = P(A)P(B)
Example:
20 2 4
Two events A and B are such that P (A) = , P (B) = and P (A’  B’) = .
25 25 5
Find
a) P (A  B).
b) P (A  B’).
Example :
A student estimates that the probability that she will pass both her
mathematics and finance final exams is 0.45. She also estimates that the
probability that she will pass the finance final exam is 0.6. If the events of
passing the two final exams are independent,
a) What is the probability that she will pass the mathematics

final exam?
b) If the student discovers that she has passed the

mathematics exam, what is the probability that she will
pass the finance exam?
Example:
a) Suppose that P (A|B) = 0.3 and P (B) = 0.4. Calculate:
i) P (A∩B)
ii) P (A’∩B)
b) Suppose that P (A|B) = 0.2, P (A/B’) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.8.

Calculate P (A).
Example:
Out of 10 people applying for a business analyst job, 2 cannot do the

work. Suppose two people will be chosen randomly for the jobs.
a) What is the probability that at most one people will not be able to
do the work?
b) What is the probability that neither will be able to do the jobs?
Example:
A manufacturer of electric water heaters knows that 25% of the water

heaters made by his company last more than 10 years. Suppose three
water heaters made by this company are selected at random. Determine
the probability that
i) all three heaters last more than 10 years.
ii) the least two of the three heaters last more than 10 years.
4.3.4 Conditional Probability
Conditional probability arises when one probability P(A) depends on another

probability P(B) which is defined over the same population of events
P(A) given P(B); denoted by
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)
P(B) given P(A); denoted by
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
Example :
Suppose that a balanced die is tossed once. Find the probability of

tossing a 1 , given that an odd number was obtained.
Example :
Suppose that of all students buying a certain brand of laptop, 60% include
a word processing program in their purchase, 40% include a spreadsheet
program, and 30% include both types of programs. Given that the selected
student included a spreadsheet program in his purchase, what is the
probability that a word processing program was also included?
Example:
Influenza A and B are prevalent among people in certain country. It is

known that 10% of the population will contract Influenza A sometime
during their lifetime, 15% will contract Influenza B , and 3% will contract
both diseases. Find the probability that:
a) A randomly chosen person from this population will contract at
least one disease.
b) A randomly chosen person from this population will contract

Influenza A given that he or she has contracted Influenza B.
c) A randomly chosen person from this population will not

contracted either Influenza B given that he or she has
contracted Influenza A.
4.4 TREE DIAGRAM
A tree diagram is a visual representation of all the possible outcomes of a multi-part task. A tree
diagram can be used to represent the outcomes of several events. All the possible outcomes or
events are shown in the branches of the probability tree.
Example:
Two coins are tossed simultaneously . Draw a tree diagram to show all possible
outcomes of the experiment.
Example :
Tina is playing a game where she flips a coin and then rolls a die. Construct a tree
diagram and list all the outcomes.
Example:
A family has three children. Draw a tree diagram to find the sample space for the gender
of the three children.
4.5 BAYES’ THEOREM
If the events B1, B2, B3, ….Bk, constitute a partition of the sample space S and P(Bi)= 0 for i= 1,
2, ….k then for any event A in S
P(A ) = P(A∩ B1) + P(A∩ B2)+…….+ P(A∩ Bk)
= P(B1)P(A/ B1) + P(B2)P(A/ B2)+ …….+ P(Bk)P(A/ Bk)
= P(Bi)P(A/ Bi)
B2 B3
B1
B4
If the events B1, B2, B3, ….Bk constitute a partition of the sample space S and P(Bi) =0
for i= 1, 2, ….k then for any event A in S such that P(A) =0, then
P(Br/A) = P(Br)P(A/ Br)

P(Bi)P(A/ Bi)
Example:
A counselor classifies his students as excellent, fair and poor students based on the
overall performance in their final examinations. Excellent and fair students constitute
10% and 30% of the students, respectively. The probability that a student will score A
for mathematics for excellent, fair and poor students are 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1, respectively.
a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the above situation.

b) Find the probability that a student chosen at random is classified as fair
students and will score A for mathematics.
c) Find the probability that a student chosen at random will score A for
mathematics.
d) A student did not score A for his mathematics subject. What is the probability
that he is an excellent student?
Example:
A doctor is studying the relationship between blood pressure and heartbeat

abnormalities in her patients. She tests a random sample of her patients and notes their
blood pressures (high, low or normal) and their heartbeats (regular or irregular). She
finds that 14 % have high blood pressure, 22% have low blood pressure. Of those with
high blood pressure, 15 % have irregular heartbeats. Of those with low blood
pressure, 5% have irregular heartbeats. She finds that only 2% of those with normal
blood pressure have irregular heartbeats.
a) Draw a tree diagram representing this situation.

b) What is the probability that a patient selected at random has irregular
heartbeats?
c) If a patient selected at random has regular heartbeats, what is the probability
that he has high blood pressure?
Example:
The members of a consulting firm rent cars from three rental agencies : 60% from Aces
Agency, 30% from Best Agency and 10% from Cute Agency. If 9% of the cars from
Aces Agency, 20% of the cars from Best Agency and 6% of the cars from Cute Agency
need a tune- up,

b) Calculate the probability that a rental car delivered to the firm will need a tune-
up.
c) Determine the probability that a rental car delivered to the firm is from Cute
Agency and need a tune-up.
d) Calculate the probability that a rental car delivered to the firm is from Aces
Agency given that the car do not need a tune-up.
Example:
Mrs Z has been teaching probability and statistics course for many years. She knows
from experience that 80% of the students will complete the assigned problems. Among
those who complete the assigned problems, 90% will pass the course and among those
students who do not complete their assignment, 50% will pass the course.

b) A student took the course last semester from Mrs Z and received a passing
grade. What is the probability that he completed the assignment?
EXERCISES CHAPTER 4
1. A four digit code is to be made, using numbers from 0 through 9 (ten choices). But the
four-digit code cannot be a number greater than 6999, can't start with zero, and it must
be an odd number. How many different codes are there?
2. There are four blood types A, B, AB, and O. Blood can also be RH+ and RH-. Finally a
blood donor can be classified as either male or female. Draw a tree diagram to show
different ways a donor have his or her blood labeled.
3. Suppose a bookcase shelf has 4 history texts, 3 sociology texts, 5 psychology texts and
4 anthropology texts. Find the number of ways a student can choose
a) one of the texts b) one of each type of text.
4. A password consists of 5 characters, the first 2 characters must be in the alphabet and
the last 3 must be in digit. Find the number of ways to create
a) a password b) a password beginning with a vowel
5. A quality control inspector wishes to select a part for inspection from each of four
different bins containing 4, 3, 5, and 4 parts respectively. In how many different ways
can she choose the four parts?
6. In how many different ways can six tosses of a coin yield two heads and four tails?
7. A shipment of 10 television sets includes three that are defective. In how many ways can
a hotel purchase four of these sets and receive at least two of the defective sets.
8. A mathematics quiz consists of 15 true-false questions. How many different ways can a
student answer the quiz.
9. How many different ways can all the letters in the word “INFLUENZA” be arranged if
i) there are no restrictions?
ii) the word must begins with Z ?
iii) the word must begins with N and ends with Z ?
10. Three male and five female applicants show up to apply for jobs as cashier at a grocery
shop.
i) Suppose there are only three jobs available and all eight applicants are
equally qualified, in how many ways can three applicants be selected if all
the three hired must be the same gender?
ii) In how many different ways could the applicants be lined up while waiting
for the interview if the first three must be female.
11. A child has 4 pockets and 5 coins. In how many ways can he put the coins in his pocket.
12. How many words can be formed with the letters of the word ‘WISER’ when:
i) ‘I’ and ‘E’ occupying end places.
ii) ‘E’ being always in the middle
iii) consonants occupying odd-places
iv) vowels being never together.
13. In how many ways can a cricket-eleven be chosen out of 15 players? if

i) A particular player is always chosen,
ii) A particular player is never chosen.
14. A real estate agent is showing houses to a prospective buyer. There are eleven houses
in the desired price range listed in the area. The buyer has time to visit only five of them.
i) In how many ways could the five houses be chosen if the order of visiting
is considered.
ii) In how many ways could the three homes be chosen if the order is
disregarded?
15. A test consists of 20 questions. Ten questions are true-false questions and five are
multiple-choice questions that have four choices each. A student must select an answer
for each question. In how many ways can this be done?
16. The names of 4 students are to be randomly drawn without replacement, from a bowl
containing the names of 30 students for lucky draws event during their annual dinner.
The person whose name is drawn first receives RM100, and the students whose names
are drawn second, third and fourth receive RM75, RM50 and RM 25 respectively. In how
many ways can the student be chosen for the lucky draws.
17. 20 students are divided into groups of 2,3,4,6 and 5 for a specific group project. In how
many ways can the lecturer assigns these students to the five groups?
18. In how many ways can the letters of the word ACRONYMS be rearranged such that the
vowels always appear together?
19. A phone number for a certain area consists of seven digits. How many phone numbers
can be made under the following conditions:
(First digit cannot be 0 or 1 )
a) The first two digits are 3 followed by 6
b) The third digit is even
c) The fourth digit is greater than 5
d) The fifth and seventh digits are odd
e) The sixth digit is 2
20. A box contains 10 fuses. Eight of them are labeled 10 amperes (A) and the other two are
labeled 20 amperes. Two fuses are selected at random. What is the probability that:
a) both fuses are labeled 10 amperes.

b) no fuses are labeled 10 amperes.
21. Two marbles are selected one after the other without replacement from a box containing
3 white marbles and two red marbles. Find the probability that:
a) the two marbles are white b) at least one marble is red
22. In a certain school, 65% of the male students play football, 40% play badminton and
20% play both football and badminton. A male student is selected at random from this
school. Find the probability that he:
a) Plays football or badminton b) Plays football if he plays badminton
c) Plays neither football nor badminton
23. 70% of the light aircraft that disappear while in flight in a certain country are
subsequently discovered. Of the aircraft that are discovered, 60% have an emergency
locator, whereas 90% of the aircraft not discovered do not have such a locator. A light
aircraft has disappeared.
a) If it has an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will not be discovered?
b) If it does not have an emergency locator, what is the probability that it will be
discovered?
24. Three letters are chosen at random from the word QUANTITATIVE.
a) Determine all possible outcomes for this experiment.
b) Find the probability that the three letters are all the same.
c) Find the probability that the three letters are all vowels.
25. Six children, Alia, Basir, Camelia, Daud, Emilia and Fikri stand in a line to get on a
school bus.
a) In how many ways can they line up to get on the school bus?
b) Find the probability that the three girls are standing next to each other.
c) Calculate the probability that Basir and Fikri are not standing next to each
other.
26. Given that P(B) = 3/7, P(A’| B) = 4/5, P(A|B’ )= 1/3. Calculate:
a) P( A ∩ B)
b) P( A ∩ B’)
c) P( A U B)
d) P( A’|B’ )
Determine whether A and B are independent events.
27. It is known that 4% of the population of a country suffers from a particular blood disease.
A blood test has a 95% chance of identifying the disease for diseased individuals, but
has a 10% chance of falsely indicating that a healthy person has the disease.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the above data.

b) Find the probability that a person will have a positive blood test.
c) Calculate the probability that a person does not has the disease, given that
the person’s blood test is negative.
28. A social worker has studied the rate of illiterate problem among 300 PLKN trainees in a
certain PLKN campsite and her findings are summarized in the following table.
Illiterate Literate
Male 60 120
Female 30 90
a) If a trainee is selected at random, what is the probability that the trainee is a male
and illiterate?
b) Given that a trainee selected at random is literate, what is the probability that the
trainee is a female?
c) Calculate the probability that a trainee selected at random is a male or illiterate.
29. The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is 0.2. Suppose that this drug is
administered to three patients. Find
a) The probability that all the three patients are allergic to the penicillin.
b) The probability that at least one of them is not allergic to the penicillin.
30. In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian and 400 are female
and vegetarian. What is the probability that a randomly selected person from this group
is:
a) A male and vegetarian.
b) A female or non- vegetarian.
c) A male given that he is vegetarian.
31. A batch of 200 boxes of frozen orange juice contains 5 boxes that are defective. Two
boxes are selected at random without replacement.
i) Draw a tree diagram for the above experiment.
ii) Find the probability that the second box is defective given that the first box is
defective.
iii) Find the probability that both boxes are defective.
iv) Find the probability that both boxes are non-defective.
32. Three students are taking part in a Statistics Contest. The probabilities that they
become the champion are 0.25, 0.37 and 0.28 respectively. Assuming that the
probability that a student becomes a champion is independent of each other. What is
the probability that:
a) One of them becomes the champion?
b ) None of them becomes the champion?
33. Use the letters in the word " IMELDA " and tell how many 6-letter arrangements, with no
repetitions, are possible if the :
a) First letter is a vowel.
b) Vowels and consonants alternate, beginning with a consonant.
34. Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.7 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.2, Find
i) 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) ii) 𝑃(𝐴′ |𝐵)

2 1
35. Given that C and D are independent and that 𝑃(𝐶|𝐷) = 3 , 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐷) = 3. Find
𝑃(𝐶)𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑃(𝐷).
36. A student estimates that the probability for him to get a scholarship is 0.8 if he scores a
grade A in Statistics, the corresponding probabilities of 0.5 if he obtains a grade B in
Statistics and 0.1 if he gets a grade C in Statistics. However the chances for him to
get grade A in Statistics is 0.1 and grade B is 0.3.
b) What is the probability that he will get a scholarship?
c) If the student gets a scholarship, what is the probability that he obtains a

grade B in Statistics
37. Anisah’s school is far from her house. Therefore she needs to take a bus in order to
arrive at her school before 7.30 am. She goes to school in the morning by taking either
the red bus or the green bus. The probability she takes the red bus is 0.25. The
probability that she is late when taking the red bus is 0.2 and the probability she is late
when taking the green bus is 0.7
b) What is the probability that Anisah is late on Monday?
c) Given that she is late, what is the probability that she has taken green bus?
38. In a certain district of Perak, it is known from past experience that the probability of
selecting an adult over 35 years old with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a doctor
correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 and the
probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is
0.06.
a) Draw tree diagram to summarize the above situation.
b) What is the probability that an adult over 35 years old is diagnosed as having
cancer?
c) Given that a person was diagnosed as having a cancer, what is the

probability he/she really had cancer?
39. The management of a computer shop recorded the sales of 300 unit of computer in one
month. Of those 300 units sold , 160 units belonged to Pentium II models of which 60
units were sold with 17 inch monitors. 100 units of Pentium 1 model were sold with 17
inch monitors. The rest of the units were sold with 15 inch monitors .Find the probability
that a unit sold, selected at random,
a) Has 17 inch monitor

b) Is a Pentium II model with a 15 inch monitor
c) Either is a Pentium I model or has a 17 inch monitor

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Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 73

4.1 BASIC CONCEPT

There is a 80 percent chance of rain tomorrow.

The probability of having a boy for a normal birth is 0.5.

The chance of contracting a rare blood disease is 1/100000.

4.1.1 Basic Statistics Terms

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space Event

4.1.2 Set Theory

A is a set of odd numbers so A = {1,3,5,7,…}

A = B if and only if A ⊆ B and B⊆ A.

4.1.3 Operation of Set Theory

A Venn Diagram is a pictorial representation of sets where sets are represented by

AUB =BUA AUA=A

For any set A, the complement has the following properties:

b) How many are in at least one of the class?

a) Two students are taking neither class.

b) There are 38 students in at least one of the classes.

i) study physics and play a sport.

ii) only play a sport but do not study physics.

i) 25 students study physics and play a sport

ii) 78 students play a sport but do not study physics.

4.2 COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

4.2.1 Multiplication Rule

Use this method when specific placement is required.

Suppose a student has to choose one of each of the following courses as

4.2.2 Permutation Rules

Permutation: The arrangement of objects with regard to order or arrangement of objects

The number of permutation of n different objects is n!.

A family has 4 boys and a girl.

a) Find the number of ways they can sit in a row.

The number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time is

A class has 12 male and 15 female students. A committee of three students

a) In how many ways can the committee be formed?

b) In how many ways can the committee consists of all males?

The number of permutations of n objects of which 𝒏𝟏 are of one kind, 𝒏𝟐 are of

a second kind,………𝒏𝒌 are of a kth kind, and 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 + 𝒏𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝒏𝒌 = 𝒏 is

How many different ways to arrange all these flags in a row?

The number of permutations of n different objects selected with repetition from a

Given a set of numbers: 7,4,5,1

The number of permutations of r different objects selected with repetition from a

Given a set of numbers: 2, 3, 4, 7

4.2.3 Combination Rule

Combination: The arrangement of objects without regard to order.

The number of combinations of r objects selected from a set of n different objects is

20 students attend their annual gathering. 5 students will be chosen at random to

From a collection of 10 books, 3 are to be chosen as references for the students.

4.2.4 Partition Rule

In how many ways can seven students attending a convention be assigned to

4.3 PROBABILITY RULE AND COMBINATION OF EVENTS

1. Each probability must lie between 0 and 1.

2. The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S equals 1.

3. The Complement Rule

If A is an event and P(A)= 0, then A is an impossible event.

If P(A) = 1, then A is a sure event.

4.3.1 Definition of probability

Let H=head, T= Tail , A= event of getting at least one tail

Sample space S = {HH,HT,TH,TT}

The total number of all possible outcomes = n(S) =18C6 =18567

Number of outcomes in A = n(A) = 8C3 x 10C3 = 6720

Relative frequency concept of probability

A sample of 2000 licensed drivers revealed the following number of violations:

Number of violations Number of drivers

What is the probability that a particular driver in this sample has: