Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

Chapter 2
REGRESSION AND CORRELATIONS
68 85 7 3 4 16
Rank Correlation 90 90 2 2 0 0
This is the approach used to determine the degree of the 95 96 1 1 0 0
relationship between two variables by ranking them 78 83 5 4 1 1
There are two methods employed: TOTAL 36
1. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.(  )
  1  6  36  1  216  0.57
2. Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient (  ) 8(64  1) 504

However, we shall strictly use only Spearman‟s rank Comment  = 0.57 shows that there is a moderate positive
Correlation approach correlation between Math and Physics
Spearman‟s rank Correlation Coefficient
With this approach, the variables are ranked according to 2. The table below shows the marks obtained by 10
the level of importance or magnitudes of the scores. students in History and Geography tests
For example, given the following scores, 90, 80, 85, 75, 60.
Rank them with the highest score taking the rank of 1. History 80 80 70 60 65 80 68 90 95 50
Scores 90 80 85 75 60 Geography 50 45 70 80 70 90 70 80 70 95
Ranks 1 3 2 4 5
Find the spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and
Note: in cases where some scores appear more than once, comment on your result.
we give positions to the scores and then add the positions
and divide by the number of times the score(s) appear. Solution
For example, given the following scores History(H) Geography(G) RH RG D D2
20,30,15,40,30,15,10,30,20,45, rank them by giving a rank 70 50 5.5 9 -3.5 12.25
of 1 to the highest score 80 45 3.5 10 -6.5 42.25
Scores 20 30 15 40 30 15 10 30 20 45 70 70 5.5 6.5 -1.0 1
Positions 6 3 8 2 4 9 10 5 7 1 60 80 9 3.5 5.5 30.25
Rank 65 70 8 6.5 1.5 2.25
6.5 4 8.5 2 4 8.5 10 4 6.5 1
80 90 3.5 2 1.5 2.25
Note: For the rank of 30, we consider the positions 3, 4 and
68 70 7 6.5 0.5 0.25
5, hence the rank of 30
90 80 2 3.5 -1.5 2.25
= 3  4  5  12  4 95 70 1 6.5 -5.5 30.25
3 3
For the rank of 20, we consider the positions, 6 and 7, 50 95 10 1 9 81
67 TOTAL 204
hence the rank of 20 =  6.5
6  204
2   1
For the rank of 15, we consider the positions, 8 and 9, 10(100  1)
hence the rank of 15 = 8  9  8.5  1
1224 
 0.2364
2 990
The spearman’s rank correlation coefficient denoted by  is Comment:  = -0.2364 shows that there is a low/weak
defined as
negative correlation between history and
 = 1  6 2 d
2
geography
n(n  1) 3. An examination body carried out a research to find out
Where d = the difference between the rankings of the scores the relationship between the mock results and end of year
n = total number of pairs of the scores. examination results for senior 4 candidates. Ten students
of a certain school were sampled. The table below shows
Examples
1. The table below shows the marks obtained by 8 students scores of the students in grade (aggregate) form for the
in math and physics tests. best done eight subjects.
Math(M) 60 80 75 85 68 90 95 78 Mock exam Final exam
Physics(P) 70 75 80 78 85 90 96 83 A 15 21
B 20 16
Find the spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and
C 54 40
comment on your result.
Solution D 36 35
2
Math(M) Physics(P) RM RP D D E 40 16
60 70 8 8 0 0 F 35 20
80 75 4 7 -3 9 G 16 13
75 80 6 5 1 1 H 36 20
85 78 3 6 -3 9
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

I 18 30 H 13 15 8 7 1 1
J 40 25 Total 40.5
Calculate the rank correlation coefficient for the
a)   1
6d2
n  n 2  1
performance of students in the two examinations. Comment
on your result.
Solution 6  40.5 261
 1   0.52
6d 2
6 102 8  63 504
  1  1
n(n 2  1) 10  99 b) Reading the critical value of rT from the tables 59
612 r = 0.71 120
 1  0.38 T
990 Here,  = 0.52 < rT = 0.71
Comment: There is a weak positive relationship between Hence we conclude that the relationship is insignificant at
mock exams and final exams 5% level of significance.
2. The course work grades ranging from A to G and
Conclusions based on the calculated value and examination marks of 8 candidates are given below.
the statistical value given from the statistical Course work grade Examination mark
tables basing on significance levels (  ) A 92
C 75
Important points to note D 63
 If the calculated value rC is greater than the statistical B 54
value from the statistical tables, rT F 48
I.e if rC > rT, we conclude that the relationship is C 45
significant at the given level of significance.
G 34
 On the other hand, If the calculated value rC is less E 18
than the statistical value from the statistical tables, rT a) Calculate the spearman’s rank correlation
I.e if rC < rT, we conclude that the relationship is coefficient for the two sets of data
insignificant at the given level of significance. b) Comment on the relationship between course work
 The statistical values from the tables may be given. grades and examination grades at 5% significance
But if not given, then we read them directly from the level
mathematical tables. This is done by taking into Solution
consideration the number of pairs, n and the level of
significance. Course work Examination
For example if number of pairs, n = 8 and  =5% , grade (C) Mark (E) RC RE D D2
here spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (table A 92 1 1 0 0
value) = 0.71 and the Kendall’s rank correlation C 75 3.5 2 1.5 2.25
coefficient (table value) = 0.64 D 63 5 3 2 4
Note. The proof of the above conclusions is outside the scope of
B 54 2 4 -2 4
our coverage. F 48 7 5 2 4
C 45 3.5 6 -2.5 6.25
Examples:
G 34 8 7 1 1
1. Applicants for a job with a company are interviewed by E 18 6 8 2 4
two of the personnel staff. After the interviews, each TOTAL 25.5
applicant is awarded a mark by each of the interviewers.
  1  6 2 d
2
The marks are given as below. a)
Candidates n  n  1
A B C D E F G H
6  25.5
Interviewer1 22 27 24 17 20 22 16 13  1
Interviewer2 28 23 25 14 26 17 20 15
8  64  1
153 351
a) Calculate to 2 d.p, the spearman’s rank correlation  1   0.696
coefficient between the two sets of marks 504 504
b) Using a 5% level of significance, interpret your result. b) From the tables, rT = 0.71
Solution
Interviewer 1 Interviewer 2 R1 R2 d d2 Conclusion:
Since  = 0.696 < 0.711, we conclude that the
A 22 28 3.5 1 2.5 6.25
relationship between the two is insignificant at 5% level
B 27 23 1 4 -3 9 of significance.
C 24 25 2 3 -1 1
3. Bird abundance may be accused in several ways. In one
D 17 14 6 8 -2 4 long -term study in a nature reserve, two independent
E 20 26 5 2 3 9 surveys (A and B) are carried out. The data show the
F 22 17 3.5 6 -2.5 6.25 number if fowl territories recorded (survey A) and the
G 16 20 7 5 2 4
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

number of adult of fowls trapped in a fine mesh net 16 145

(survey B) over a number of years. 36 125
i) Plot these data on a scatter diagram.
ii) Draw the line of best fit on your diagram.
Survey A Survey B iii) Find the equation of your line in the form p     d
16 11 Where  and  are constants
19 12 Hence estimate the price of matooke when d = 5
27 15 b) The following table gives the order in which six candidates
50 18 were ranked in two tests x and y
x: E, C, B, F, D, A
60 22
y: F, A, D, E, C, C
70 35 Calculate the coefficient of rank correlation and
79 35 comment on your result. (1988 No. 13)
79 71
84 46 Solution
85 53
p
97 52 165
a) Calculate the spearman’s rank correlation coefficient
b) Using a 5% level of significance, interpret your 160 x
result.
Solution 155

Survey A Survey B RA RB D2
150 x
16 11 11 11 0
19 12 10 10 0 145 x
27 15 9 9 0
140 x p = 163 – 1.2d
50 18 8 8 0
60 22 7 7 0 135 x
70 35 6 5.5 0.25
130 x x
79 35 4.5 5.5 1
79 71 4.5 1 12.25 125 x x
84 46 3 4 1
85 53 2 2 0
120 x
97 52 1 3 4 115

TOTAL 18.5
110
0
 1 6  d 2 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
d

n  n 2  1
(iii) Picking any two points lying on the line,
6  18.5 111 (20,139) and (30,127)
 1  1
11121  1 1320
(20,139
1209
  0.916 ) (30,127)
1320 (d, p)
b) From the tables, rT = 0.60
Using gradient approach
Conclusion 127  139 p  127
Since   0.916  0.6, we conclude that the relationship 
30  20 d  30
between the two is significant at 5% level of significance. 12 p  127

10 d  30
12
Examination Questions p   (d  30)  127
10
1. (a) The price of Matooke is found to depend on the distance the p  1.2d  163
market is away from the nearest town. The table below
gives the average price of Matooke from markets around
Kampala City Substituting for d = 5
P = -1.2(5) + 163
Distance, d (km) Price, P (shs) P = 157
40 120
Using Spearman’s method
8 160
17 140 A B C D E F TOTAL
20 130 X 6 3 2 5 1 4
24 135 Y 2 5.5 5.5 3 4 1
-
30 125 d 4 -2.5 -3.5 2 3 3
10 150 d2 16 6.25 12.25 4 9 9 56.5
28 130
 Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

6d
2
6  56.5 -30 -5 9 9 0 0
  1  1

n n 1
2
 6  36  1 -32 -13 10 10 0 0
10 30 2 2 0 0
339 129 
 1   0.614 15 40 1 1 0 0
210 210
-12 8 6.5 7 0.5 0.25
Comment: There is moderate (substantial) negative
TOTAL 17.5
correlation between tests X and Y.
6d2 6  17.5 885
  1  1   0.894
n  n 2  1 10  99 990
2. The pairs of observations have been made on two random
variables X and Y. The ten (x, y) values are (0, 20), (-7, 12), 3. Three examiners X, Y and Z each marked the script of
(-10, 15), (-12, 22), (-17, 5), (30,5), (32, 13), (10, 30), ten candidates who sat for a mathematics examination.
(15, 40), and (12, 8) The table below shows the examiners’ ranking of the
a) Plot these results on a scatter diagram candidates.
Candidates
b) Draw on a scatter diagram the line of best fit for
predicting Y from X Examiner A B C D E F G H I J
c) Estimate the expected value of Y corresponding to X 8 5 9 2 10 1 7 6 3 4
Y 5 3 6 1 4 7 2 10 8 9
X = -7
Z 6 3 7 2 5 4 1 10 9 8
d) Calculate the rank correlation coefficient for these date
(1990 No. 12 modified) Calculate the coefficient of rank correlation of the rankings
Solution between
y i) X and Y
40
ii) Y and Z
35 State with reason whether there is a significant difference
between rankings of the three examiners
30
(1991 No. 12)
25 x + 0.9x
y = 22.6 (i) RX RY D D2
8 5 3 9
20 5 3 2 4
x
15
9 6 3 9
2 1 1 1
x 10 10 4 6 36
1 7 -6 36
5
x 7 2 5 25
x 6 10 -4 16
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-5
x 3 8 -5 25
(b)x Finding equation of y on x: 4 9 -5 25
Picking any two points on the line, (-20,5) and (5,27) TOTAL 186
6d2 6  186 126
  1  1    0.127
n( n  1) 10  99
2
(-20,5) (5,27) (x,y) 99
(ii) RY RZ D D2
Using gradient approach
5 6 -1 1
27  5 y  27
 3 3 0 0

5  20 x5 6 7 -1 1
22 y  27
 1 2 -1 1
25 x5 4 5 -1 1
22
y  27  ( x  5) 7 4 3 9
25 2 1 1 1
y  22.6  0.88 x 10 10 0 0
(c)
Substituting for x = -7 8 9 -1 1
y = 22.6 + 0.88(-7) 9 8 1 1
y = 16.44 TOTAL 16
d) Finding spearman’s rank correlation coefficient
6  16 894
X Y RX RY D D2   1   0.903
10  99 990
0 20 3 4 -1 1
Giving reasons basing on statistical proofs: Considering
-7 12 4 6 -2 4
level of significance,  = 5%
-10 15 5 5 0 0
-12 22 6.5 3 3.5 12.25 From statistical tables,  = 0.65
-17 5 8 8 0 0
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

(i)  = 0.127  0.65 Hence, we conclude that at 5%

service, size of veranda and price of items. Rank 1
indicates best service, largest veranda and lowest price
level, there is insignificant relationship between the
of commodities. The results, including monthly average
rankings made by X and Y.
sales are given as below.
ii)   0.903  0.65 . Hence we conclude that there is
sufficient evidence at 5% level of significance to show Shop Quality Size of Price of Sales (in
that there is significant relationship between the rankings Of veranda commodi terms of
made by Y and Z. service ties kg)
A 3 3 6 20
B 7 5 10 10
4. Three weighing scales from three different stalls, W,X
C 4 10 7 31
and Y in Owino market were used to weigh 10 bags of
D 6 7 2 47
beans A,B,C…J and the results (in kgs) were as given in
E 8 2 4 37
the table below
F 2 1 5 38
One of the scales was known to be in good working G 5 8 3 38
condition. H 9 6 8 15
A B C D E F G H I J I 10 4 10 21
Scale W 65 68 70 63 64 62 73 75 72 78 J 1 9 1 42
Scale X 63 68 68 60 65 60 72 73 70 66 a) By calculation, determine whether the price of
Scale Y 63 74 78 75 64 73 79 70 67 79 commodities or size of the veranda is the more
important factor affecting sales. (1993 No. 14)
Determine rank correlation coefficient for the performances
of the scales b) Is there any evidence that the size of the veranda
influences the quality of service?
i) W and X
c) Is there evidence that a shop with quality lower priced
j) X and Y.
commodities offer poor quality services (e.g. by
Which of the three scales: W, X and Y were in good
employing few sales people)
working conditions. (1992 No. 13) Solution
Solution Let q = quality of services
RW RX D D2 V = size of veranda ,
7 8 -1 1 C = price of the commodities
6 4.5 1.5 2.25 S = sales
5 4.5 0.5 0.25
a) Considering size of the veranda and sales
9 9.5 -0.5 0.25
Shop V S RV RS D D2
8 7 1 1
A 3 20 3 8 -5 25
10 9.5 0.5 0.25
B 5 10 5 10 -5 25
3 2 1 1 C 10 31 10 6 4 16
2 1 1 1 D 7 47 7 1 -6 36
4 3 1 1 E 2 37 2 5 -3 9
-
1 6 -5 25 F 1 38 1 3.5 2.5 6.25
-
TOTAL 33 G 8 38 8 3.5 4.5 20.25
6d2 6  33 792 H 6 15 6 9 -3 9
  1  1   0.8
n  n 2  1 10  99 990 I 4 21 4 7 -3 9
J 9 42 9 2 7 49
(i) RX RY D D2 TOTAL 204.5
8 10 -2 4 Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient
4.5 5 -0.5 0.25 6  204.5 1227 
  1  1  0.2394
4.5 3 1.5 2.25 10  99 990
9.5 4 5.5 30.25
Considering price of commodities and sales
7 9 -2 4 Shop C S RC RS D D2
9.5 6 3.5 12.25 A 6 20 6 8 -2 4
2 1.5 0.5 0.25 B 10 10 10 10 0 0
1 7 -6 36 C 7 31 7 6 1 1
3 8 -5 25 D 2 47 2 1 1 1
E 4 37 4 5 -1 1
6 1.5 4.5 20.25
F 5 38 5 3.5 1.5 2.25
TOTAL 134.5 G 3 38 3 3.5 -0.5 0.25
6  134.5 183
  1   0.185 H 8 15 8 9 -1 1
10  99 990 I 10 21 10 7 3 9
The scales in good working conditions are W and X as they J 1 42 1 2 -1 1
have high positive correlation. TOTAL 20.5
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient
5. Ten shops in Kampala which attract a similar number
and type of customers are ranked in terms of quality of
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

6  20.5 123
 1 1  0.8758
10  99 990
Since there is a highly positive correlation between low
prices of commodities and sales, therefore, it is the prices of Typist Speed Errors
the commodities other than size of the veranda that affects A 3 2
sales B 4 6
(b) Considering size of the veranda and quality of
C 2 5
services D 1 1
Shop RV Rq D D2 E 8 10
A 3 3 0 0 F 11 9
B 5 7 -2 4 G 10 8
C 10 4 6 36 H 6 3
D 7 6 1 1 I 7 4
E 2 8 -6 36
J 12 12
F 1 2 -1 1
K 5 7
G 8 5 3 9
L 9 11
H 6 9 -3 9
I 4 10 -6 36 Calculate the rank correlation coefficient. Test the
assertion made by the officers and comment on your
result. (  = 0.71 at 1% level of significance based on
J 9 1 8 64
TOTAL 196
12 observations.)
6  196 1176 
 1 1  0.188 (b). The cost of travelling a certain distance a way from the
10  99 990 city centre is found to depend on the route and the
Considering 5% level of significance, distance a given place is a way from the centre. The
table below gives the average rates of travel charged for
From tables,   0.65 distances to be travelled a way from the city centre.
Distance, S (km) Rate charged, r (shs)
Since   0.188  0.65 ,
9 750
Conclusion We therefore, conclude that there is 12 1000
insignificant relationship that the size of the veranda 14 1150
influences the quality of service 21 1200
NB: Try using 1% level of significance 24 1350
30 1250
(c) Considering prices and quality of services 33 1400
Shop RP Rq D D2 45 1750
A 6 3 3 9 46 1600
B 10 7 3 9 50 2000
C 7 4 3 9
D 2 6 -4 16 (i) Plot the above data on the a scatter diagram and draw a
E 4 8 -4 16 line of best fit through the points of the scatter diagram
F 5 2 3 9 (ii) Determine the equation of the line in (i) above in the
G 3 5 -2 4 form r =  s +  , where  and  are constants. Use
H 8 9 -1 1 your result to estimate to the nearest shilling the cost of
I 10 10 0 0 travelling a distance of 40km. (1994 No. 14)
J 1 1 0 0 Answer: (a) ρ = 0.8182,
TOTAL 73 Conclusion: high speed causes errors at 1% level of
6  73 438 significance.
 1 1  0.558
10  99 990
Considering 5% level of significance,
From tables,   0.65
Since   0.558  0.65
We therefore, conclude that, there is insignificant
relationship to conclude that a shop with lower priced
commodities offer poor quality services
6. (a) In many Government institutions, officers complain
about typing errors. A test was designed to investigate the
relationship between typing speed and errors made.
Twelve typists A, B, C, D,..…L were picked at random to
type the text. The table below shows the rankings of the
typists according to speed and errors made. (N.B, lowest
ranking in errors implies least errors made).
 Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation
2000 High positive correlation between typing speed and
r errors made.
1900

1800
8. The following table gives the marks obtained in
Calculus, Physics and Statistics by seven students
1700 Calculus 72 50 60 55 35 48 82
Physics 61 55 70 50 30 50 73
1600
r = 761 + 21s Statistics 50 40 62 70 40 40 60
1500
Draw scatter diagrams and determine the rank correlation
1400 coefficients between the performances of the students in
i) Calculus and physics
1300
ii) Calculus and Statistics
1200 Give interpretations to your results. (1996 No. 16)
Answers: i) = 0.9 ii) = 0.64
1100
9. Given the variables x and y below
1000 x 80 75 86 60 75 92 86 50 64 75
y 62 58 60 45 68 68 81 48 50 70
900
Obtain a rank correlation coefficient between the variables x
800 and y. comment on your result.
(1999 No. 8)
700
Answers:   0.715
600

500
0
10. The table below shows the percentage of sand y, in the
10 20 30 40 50 S
soil at different depths x, (in cm)
(ii) r = 761 + 21s Soil depth (x), (cm) Percentage of sand, (y)
35 86
Cost = 1601/- 65 70
Note: the line of best fit may vary from candidate to 55 84
candidate 25 92
45 79
7. (a) In a certain commercial institution a speed and error 75 68
typing examination was administered to 12 randomly 20 96
selected candidates A, B, C, …….L of the institution. The 90 58
table below shows their speeds (Y) in seconds and the 51 86
number of errors in their typed scripts (X)
60 77
No of errors (X) Speed (Y) in seconds
A 12 130 (a) i) Plot a scatter diagram for the data. Comment on the
B 24 136 relationship between the depth of the soil and the
C 20 124 percentage of sand in the soil.
D 10 120
E 32 153 ii) Draw a line of best fit through the points of the
F 30 160 scatter diagram. Use your result to estimate the;
G 28 155 - Percentage of sand in the soil at depth of 31cm.
H 15 142
- Depth of soil with 54% sand.
I 18 145
J 40 172 (b) Calculate the rank correlation coefficient between the
K 27 140 percentage of sand in soil and the depth of the soil
L 35 157 (2003 No. 15)
Answers (a) ii) 92%, 96%
(b)  = - 0.95
i) Plot the data on a scatter diagram
ii) Draw the line of best fit on your diagram and comment
on the association between speed and the errors made. 11. Eight applicants for a certain job obtained the
iii) Determine the equation of the line in the form following marks in aptitude and written tests
y = kx + b, where k and b are constants. Applicant A B C D E F G H
iv) By giving rank 1 to the fastest student and the student Aptitude test 33 45 15 42 45 35 40 48
with the fewest errors, rank the above data, and use them Written test 57 60 40 75 58 48 54 68
to calculate the rank correlation coefficient. Calculate the rank correlation coefficient of the applicants’
Comment on your result. (1995 No. 13) performance in the two tests. Comment on your result.
Answers: iii) y = 1.5x + 107.5 (2004 No. 7)
iv)   0.84 
Answer: = 0.78
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

12. Below are marks scored by 8 students A,B,C,D,E,F,G There is very high positive correlation between the
and H in Mathematics, Economics and Geography in the two tests.
end of term examinations Or not significant at 5%
A B C D E F G H
Heights 156 151 152 160 146 157 149 142 158 14 15. The heights (cm) and ages (years) of a
(cm) 0 random sample of ten farmers are given in
Ages 47 38 44 55 46 49 45 30 45 30 the table below;
(years)
Math 52 75 41 60 81 31 65 52 (a) (i) Calculate the rank correlation
Econ 50 60 35 65 66 45 69 48 coefficient.
Geog 35 40 60 54 63 40 55 72 (ii) Comment on your result.
Calculate the rank correlation coefficients between the (b) Plot a scatter diagram for the data.
performances of the students in Hence draw a line of best fit.
i) Mathematics and Economics
(c) Use your diagram in (b) to find
ii) Geography and Mathematics
Comment on the significance of Mathematics in the (i) y when x  147
performance of Economics and Geography. (ii) x when y  43
[Spearman,  = 0.86, based on 8 observations at 1% (2013 No. 9)
level of significance.] Answers
(2007 No. 12) (c) (i) 37 (ii) 151
Answers (i)  = 0.85 (ii)  = 0.19 16. The table below shows scores if students in
Not significant at 1% level Mathematics and English tests.
Math 72 65 82 54 32 74 40 53
English 58 50 86 35 76 43 40 60
13. The heights and masses of ten students are given in Calculate the rank correlation coefficient for the
the table below. students performance in the two subjects.(2014 No.7)
Height (cm) Mass (kg) 1 1
Answers:   or  
156 62 7 14
151 58 17. The table below gives the points awarded to eight
152 63 schools by three judges J 1 , J2 and J3 during a
146 58 music competition. J1 was the chief judge.
160 70
157 6O J1 72 50 50 55 35 38 82 72
149 55 .12 60 55 70 50 50 50 73 70
142 57
J3 50 40 62 70 40 48 67 67
158 68
141 56
(a) Determine the rank correlation coefficient
(a) (i) Plot the data on a scatter diagram. between the judgments of
(ii) Draw the line of best fit. Hence estimate the
(i) J1 and J2.
mass corresponding to a height of 155cm.
(ii) J1 and J3.
(b) (i)Calculate the rank correlation coefficient for
(b)Who of the two other judges had a better
the data.
(ii) Comment on the significance of the heights correlation with the chief judge? Give a reason.
(2015 No.12)
on masses of the students. [Spearman's =
Answer: (a)(i)0.7440 (ii) 0.7023
0.79 and Kendall's τ = 0.64 at 1% level of
(b) J2 had a better correlation with the chief Judge
significance based on 10 observations.]
Reason: It has slightly a higher value with
(2011 No. 12) chief Judge
Answers: (b)(i)0.87 (ii) there is significant
relationship at 1% level
14. A teacher gave two tests in chemistry. Five students
were graded as follows:
GRADE
Test I A B C D E
Test II B A C D E
Determine the rank correlation coefficient between
the two tests. Comment on your result.(2012 No 5)
Answer:   0.9 or   0.8
 Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

EXERCISE
1. Seven army recruits (A, B, ..., G) were given two separate aptitude tests. Their orders of merit in each test were:
Order of merit 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
1st test G F A D B C E
2nd test D F E B G C A
Find Spearman’s coefficient of rank correlation between the two orders and comment briefly on the correlation obtained.

2. A doctor asked ten of his patients who were smokers how many years they had smoked. In addition, for each patient, he
gave a grade between 0 to 100 indicating the extent of their lung damage. The following table shows the results:
Number of Lung damage
Patient
years smoking grade
A 15 30
B 22 50
C 25 55
D 28 30
E 31 57
F 33 35
g 36 60
H 39 72
I 42 70
J 48 75
(a) Calculate Spearman’s coefficient of rank correlation between the number of years of smoking and the extent of lung
damage.
(b) Comment on the figure which you obtain

3. The table below shows the original marks of six candidates in two examinations.
Candidate A B C D E F
English 38 62 56 42 59 48
History 64 84 84 60 73 69
(a) Calculate a coefficient of rank correlation and comment on the value of your results.
(b) The History papers are re-marked and one of the six candidates is awarded five additional marks. Given that the other
marks, and the coefficient of rank correlation, are unchanged, state, with reasons, which candidate received the extra
marks.
4. A teacher selects one boy and one girl at random from her class, and asks them to rearrange 11 types of food in order of
preference. The food types are labelled A to K and the results are given in the following table.
Boys’ order Girls’ order
E F
K K
F E
C C
B B
I I
D H
A D
G A
J J
H G
a) Calculate spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for the data
b) Test at 1% level of significance whether or not there is evidence of a positive correlation
c) Interpret your conclusion to the test in part (b) above

5. The position in a league of 8 hockey clubs at the end of a season are shown in the table. Shown also are the average
attendances (in hundreds) at home matches during that season. Calculate a coefficient of rank correlation between.
Simplified A’ Level Mathematics Paper 2 Regression and Correlation

Club Position Average

attendance
A 1 30
B 2 32
C 3 12
D 4 19
E 5 27
F 6 18
G 7 15
H 8 25
a) Calculate the spearman rank correlation coefficient between position in the league and average home attendances
b) Interpret your result at 5% level of significance

6. Ten architects each produced a new design for a new building and two judges A and B independently awards a mark x
and y respectively to the 10 designs as given in the table below.
Design Judge A (x) Judge B (y)
1 50 46
2 35 26
3 55 48
4 60 44
5 85 62
6 25 28
7 65 30
8 90 60
9 45 34
10 40 42
a) Calculate the spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for the data
b) Test at the 5% level of significance whether there is correlation between the marks awarded by the two judges
7. Six students were graded as follows in two subjects Mathematics and Economics by UNEB
Math A B C D E F
Economics C F B A E D
Calculate the Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient and comment on the results

8. Twelve chemistry students were each given a theory and practical examination. Their positions in the two
examinations were as follows
Theory 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Practical 1 4 7 3 5 2 9 8 10 6 12 12

Calculate the Spearman’s correlation coefficient for the data and test for the significance of the coefficient at 1%.

9. The course work grades ranging from A to G and examination marks of 8 candidates are given below.

Coursework grade Examination mark

A 92
C 75
D 63
B 54
F 48
C 45
G 34
E 18

Note: Grade A is the highest grade.

(a) Calculate the spearman’s rank correlation coefficient for the two sets of data
(b) Comment on the significance of the relationship between the two at 5% level. [Spearman, ρ = 0.71 based on 8
observations at 5% level of significance]
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory

Chapter 3
PROBABILITY THEORY
Outline S = (H, T); where H represents a head turning uppermost
- Definition of probability and T represents a tail turning uppermost
- Sample space and how it is generated
- Probability situations Note: T and H are sample points
- Selection and transfer of items When a die is thrown once, the outcomes are numbers 1 to
- Total theorem and Baye’s rule 6; hence the sample space S is
S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
Definition of probability
The probability of an event occurring is a measure of the Generation of Sample Space
likelihood that it will happen. This is given a numerical
There are various methods used to list down the sample
scale from 0 to 1
The numbers representing probabilities can be written as points. Some of which include:
decimals, fractions or percentages. For example the - Tree diagram
probability of 14 may as well be represented as 0.25, or - Table of outcomes
- Permutations and combinations
25%
The probability of an event is zero if it is certain that an a) Tree Diagram
event is impossible to occur. For example the probability
This is usually used to generate sample points for an
that a girl will one day become a boy, the chance that a
person aged 20 years will one day become a 5 years child. experiment which results in two possible outcomes for
every trial
The probability of an event is 1 if it is certain that such an
event will occur. For example the chance that a person will Note:
die is one (even though the time is not specified) i) This is used when an experiment is performed at least
twice
Types of probability ii) The method is used regardless of whether the
a) Experimental probability selection is done with or without replacement
This is the probability arising after an experiment has been
performed. For example the probability of obtaining two Examples
heads when a coin is tossed three times. Suppose three coins are tossed simultaneously once. The
sample points are obtained from the tree diagram as
b) Equally likely probability follows:
This is probability of an event whose outcomes are equally
likely to occur for example if a fair coin is tossed once, the st nd 3
rd HHH
1 2 H
1
probability of a head showing up is
2 T
HHT
Note: Here the probability is thought of even before H
carrying out an experiment. H HTH
The probability that a pregnant mother will give birth on a T
1 H
T
Monday is because there is only one Monday out of the HTT
7
seven days of a week Coin
H THH
c) Subjective Probability
T H
This is probability arising due to a person’s own judgment
according to the experience. For example the probability T THT
that a particular car make will be stolen during a certain H TTH
period is based on one’s past experience. However this
method is highly subject to errors and therefore cannot be T
TTT
tested or treated mathematically.
Sample space S is given by:
Sample Space S = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, TTT)
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
performed is called sample space, denoted by S. each of 2. Suppose that 2 items are selected at random from a
the individual outcome in the sample space is called a manufacturing process. If each item inspected is
sample point. For example when a coin is tossed once, the classified as Defective (D) on Non defective (N). to list
sample space is denoted by
 Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
the sample points of the sample space may be done 20 20!
S 
using a tree diagram as shown below. (20  2)! 18!
20 19 18!
st nd
1 2 DD
D   20 19
18!
 380
D
The number of distinct permutations of n things of which
N n1, are of one kind, n2 of second kind, and nk of the kth kind
DN
is given by S  n!
ND n1 !n2 !....nk !
N D
For example
In how many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow and 2 blue
bulbs be arranged in a string of x-mass tree lights with 9
N sockets?
NN The total number of distinct arrangements is given by
Sample space S is given by: S = (DD, DN, ND, NN) 9! 9  8  7  6  5  4!

3!4!2! 3  2  2  4!
Table of outcomes
9 87 65
The table of outcomes is used to generate sample spaces   1260
where sample points appear in pairs for every trial 12

Example
Suppose the faces of each of two dice are numbered from Combinations
1 to 6 and that the dice are tossed once, we can use a table The number of ways of selecting r things from n unlike
of outcomes to generate the sample outcomes as follows: things is denoted by:
n n
Note: Here we fix the outcome of one of the dice and let   or C r
the outcome of the other die vary from 1 to 6 r
A Or it denotes the number of combinations (selections) of n
dice 1 2 3 4 5 6 unlike things taken r at a time.
1 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4 1, 5 1, 6 n n!
This is defined as:   
2 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4 2, 5 2, 6 r (n  r )!r !
3 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3, 4 3, 5 3, 6 Example:
4 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4, 4 4, 5 4, 6 1. Find the number of selecting 11 players from 14
members
5 5, 1 5, 2 5, 3 5, 4 5, 5 5, 6
14 
6 6, 1 6 , 2 6 , 3 6 , 4 6, 5 6, 6 Number of selecting all players =  
 11 
c) Permutations and Combinations 14  13  12  11!

We can use the permutation theory to know the number of 11! 3!
sample points in a sample space, however this will not 14  13  12
enable us obtain the sample points themselves.   14  13  2
3 2
Permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of
 364
objects
Note: The number of ways of choosing 11 players from 14
Note:
members is the same as the number of ways of
i) The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n!
selecting 3 non-players from 14
(Read as n factorial, which is defined as n! = n(n – 1)(n
Number of selecting 3 non members   
– 2) …. × 1). For example the number of arrangements 14
which can be made out of letters a, b, c and d is 4! 3
= 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
14  13  12  11! 14  13  12
ii) The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken    364
n! 11! 3! 6
n
r at a time is given by Pr 
Hence    
n n 
( n  r )! 
 r  n  r
2. From 4 republicans and 3 democrats, find the number of
committee of 3 that can be formed with 2 republicans and
Example
1 democrat.

Two rotary tickets are drawn from 20 for the 1 st and 2nd Solution
prices. Find the number of sample points in the sample Number of ways of selecting 2 republicans from 4 is
space(s)
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory

 4 4! 4  3  2 1 48 47 188
  
  
 2  2!2! 2 1 2 1 52 51 221
Alternatively;
 3 2  6
P(Neither is an Ace)
Number of ways of selecting 1 democrat out of 3 is:
no of ways of selecting 2 cards from 48
 3  3! 3  2
   3

which are not Aces
 1  2!1! 2 1 no of ways of choosing 2 out of 52 in cards
Therefore the number of committees that can be formed is
 48 
6 × 3 = 18 2
 
1128 188
Or: This could be explained by saying number of 
 52  1326 221
selecting 3 members      
4 3 2
 
 2 1
iii) P(At least one is an Ace)
4! 3!
   6  3  18 = 1 − P(neither is an Ace)
2!2! 2!1! 188 33
Note: Permutations and Combinations are covered in  1 
221 221
details in Pure Mathematics
3. Seven cards labelled A, B, C, D, E, F, G are
Application of Combinations in Probabilities thoroughly shuffled and dealt out face upwards on a
table. Find the probability that:
1. A box contains 10 radio valves, all apparently,
a) the first three cards to appear are labelled A, B, C
although 4 of them are actually sub-standard. Find the
in that order
probability that if two of the valves are taken from the
b) the first three cards to appear are labelled A, B, C
box, they are both sub-standard.
but in any order
Solution
c) the seven cards appear in their original order: A,
P(Both values are substandard) B, C, D, E, F, G
number of selecting 2 from 4 sub-standard
 Solution
number of selecting 2 from the 10
(a)With specific order, we use permutations
4 Number of ways of arranging 3 letters from seven
2
   
6 2
  7 P3 
7!

7!
 10  15 15
2 (7  3)! 4!
 
7!
  7  6  5  210
n 4!
Note:   can be read off directly from mathematical
r 1
 P(1st three letters are A, B, C in that order) 
tables. 210

2. If two cards are picked from a well shuffled pack of b) With the order not specific, we use combinations
52 playing cards, what is the probability that: number of ways of arranging three letters from seven
 7 C3
a) they are both Aces?
7! 7  6  5
b) neither of them is an Ace    35
c) at least one of them is an Ace 4!3! 3 2
Solution  P(1st three letters are A, B, C) in any order)
(a) P(both are Aces) = P(1st is an Ace, 2nd is an Ace) 1
=
= P(1st is an Ace) × P(2nd is an Ace) 35
4 3 1
  
52 51 221 c) P(Number of ways of arranging 7 letters) = 7!

Alternatively, = 5040
P(both Aces) 1
no of ways of choosing 2 cards from 4 aces in pack  P(7 cards appear in their order) =
 5040
no of ways of choosing 2 out of 52 in pack
4. Three letters are selected at random from the word
 4 BIOLOGY. Find the probability that the selection
 
doesn’t contain the letter O
   
2 6 1 a)

 52  1326 221 b) contains both of the letters O
 
2 Solution
ii) P(neither is an ace) With this question, we need to observe the following:
= P(1st is not an Ace) × P(2nd is not an Ace) - Find the number of selections without the letter O
- Find the number of selections with one letter O
 Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
- Find the number of selections with two letters O i) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
- Find the total number of selections by adding the ii) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A)  P( B)
above three
Now the number of selections without the letter O Also the compliments of A and B denoted by A' and B' are
also independent.
= number of ways of choosing three letters from B, I, L, G,
 P( A ' B ')  P( A ')  P( B ')
Y
Where P( A ')  1  P( A) and P( B ')  1  P( B)
 5 C3 = 10
Number of selections with one letter O Examples
= number of ways of choosing two letters from B, I, L, G, Y 1. Events A and B are independent such that P( A  B) =
 5 C2 = 10 0.8, P(A) = 0.5. Find:
Number of selections with two letters O i) P(B)
= number of ways to choosing one letter from B, I, L, G, Y ii) P( A ' B)
5 C1 = 5 iii) P( A ' B)
Solution
Total number of selections of choosing three letters from
By definition:
BIOLOGY = 10 + 10 + 5 = 25 (i) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
10 2 0.8 = 0.5 + P(B) − 0.5 × P(B)
a) P(selection doesn’t contain letter O)  
25 5 0.3 = P(B) − 0.5P(B)
5 1 0.3 = 0.5P(B)
b) P(Selection contains two letters O)  
25 5 0.3
P( B)  = 0.6
0.5
Events ii) P( A ' B)  P( A ')  P( B)
An event is a sub-set of a sample space. For example when  1  P( A)  P( B)  0.5  0.6  0.3
a affair coin is tossed three times, the sample space is iii) P( A' B)  P( A')  P( B)  P( A' B)
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
If we are interested in picking at least two heads out of the = 0.5 + 0.6 − 0.3 = 0.8
three tosses, this constitutes an event E, where
2. A and B are said to be independent events such that
E = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}
Note: Probability of an event is defined as P(A) = 0.4, P( A  B ') = 0.9. Find:
n( E ) i) P(B)
PE 
n( S ) ii) P(A  B)
4 1 iii) P( A' B ')
In the example above, P  E    iv) P( A' B ')
8 2

Intersection of events:
For two events A and B, the probability that A and B
occur is denoted by P( A  B)
See more details about the “AND” situation under Solution
probability situations a head. P( A  B ')  P( A)  P( B ')  P( A)  P( B ')
0.9  0.4  P( B ')  0.4 P( B ')
Union of Events
0.5  0.6 P( B ')
For two events A and B, the probability that A or B or
both occur is denoted by P( A  B) which is defined as P( B ') 
0.5 5

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) 0.6 6
P( B )  1  P( B ')
See more details about the “OR” situation under  1 
5 1
probability situations a head. 6 6
(ii) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
Types of Events 1
There are several types of events, however in this book we  0.4 
6
shall strictly look at the following:
2 1 2 1
- Independent events    
- Mutually exclusive events 5 6 30 15
- Exhaustive events (iii) P( A' B ')  P( A')  P( B ')
- Undefined events 5 6 5 1
 0.6    
Independent events 6 10 6 2
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of (iv) P( A' B ')  P( A')  P( B ')  P( A' B ')
one event does not affect the other.
If events A and B are independent, then
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
5 1 Consider the Venn diagram shown below
 0.6  
6 2 A B
3 5 1 18  25  15
   
5 6 2 30
28 14
 
30 15
3. A and B are independent events such that
P(A  B) = 0.8, P(A  B) = 0.1. Find the possible values
of P(A) and P(B) From the Venn diagram above,
P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A  B ')
Solution
By definition, But P( A  B)  0
P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B) Hence P( A)  P( A  B ')
0.1 = P(A) × P(B) P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A ' B)
0.1 But P( A  B)  0
P ( A) 
P( B ) Hence P( B)  P( A ' B)
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) Also consider the Venn diagram below
0.8  P( A)  P( B)  0.1
0.9  P( A)  P( B)
Substituting for P(A),
0.1
0.9   P( B )
P( B )
Let P(B) = x
By shading the regions for A' and B',
 0.9 x  0.1  x 2 A ' B ' = region shaded twice
x 2  0.9 x  0.1  0 =  A  B '
0.9  (0.9) 2  4  0.1 Hence P  A ' B '  P  A  B  '
x
2 A ' B ' = any shaded region i.e. whether shaded once or
0.9  0.64 twice
x Hence P(A'  B') = 1
2
P(A1  B)=P(A1 )
0.9  0.64
Either x   0.77 hence P(B) = 0.77 P(A  B1 )=P(B1 )
2
0.9  0.64
Or x   0.13 Hence P(B) = 0.13 B A'
2 A B'
0.1
If P(B) = 0.77, P( A)   0.13
0.77

0.1
If P(B) = 0.13, P( A)   0.77 Hence in summery,
0.13 P(A  B1) = P(A)
P(A1  B) = P(B)
Mutually Exclusive Events P(A1  B) = P(A1)
P(A  B) = P(B1)
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they do not
P(A1  B1) = 1
have any element in common. For example even numbers
P(A1  B1) = P(A  B)1
and odd numbers are mutually exclusive.
Note: Total area under the Venn diagram = 1
Note: mutually exclusive events are represented by Examples
disjoint sets. 1. A and B are mutually exclusive events such that
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P  A  B   0.8 , P  A  0.4 ,
S Find: i) P  B  , ii) P  A  B '
A B
iii) P  A ' B  iv) P  A ' B '
v) P  A ' B '
Hence Solution
i) For mutually exclusive events,
From P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) , P  A  B   P  A  P  B 
We have P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) 0.8  0.4  P  B 
Important properties: P  B   0.4
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
ii) P  A  B '  P  A = 0.4 P(B) = 1 − P(B')
= 1 − 0.6 = 0.4
iii) P  A ' B   P  A ' 
ii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
 1  P  A  1  0.4 0.9 = P(A) + 0.4
 0.6 P(A) = 0.5
iv) P  A ' B '  P( A  B)' iii) P(A'  B) = P(A')
= 1 − P(A)
 1  P( A  B) = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5
 1  0.8  0.2 iv) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' Demorgan’s rule
v) P  A ' B '  P( A  B)' = 1 − P(A  B)
 1  P( A  B) = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1
v) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' Demorgan’s rule
 1 0  1 = 1 − P(A  B)
Some important laws/rules =1–0=1
a) Laws of induction
For events A and B, Exhaustive events
i) P  A  P  A '  1 Two events are said to be exhaustive if: -
ii) P  B   P  B '  1 i) they do not have any element(s) in common
ii) the sum of their probabilities is one
iii) P( A  B)  P( A  B) '  1 Note: A and A' are exhaustive events because
iv) P  A  B   P  A  B  '  1 P(A) + P(A') = 1
Hence P  X   P  X '  1 A  B and ( A  B) ' are also exhaustive events because
b) Demorgan’s rule P ( A  B )  P ( A  B) '  1
For any events A and B, Examples
i) P  A ' B '  P  A  B  ' 1. Given that A and B are exhaustive events such that
P(A) = 0.6. Find
ii) P  A ' B '  P( A  B)'
i) P(B) ii) P(A  B)
Note: These laws/rules are applicable to all types of events iii) P(A'  B')
2. Events A and B are mutually exclusive such that Solution
P  A ' B   0.3 , P  A ' B   0.45 P(A) + P(B) = 1
Find: i) P(B), ii) P(A) iii) P( A  B) P(B) = 1 − 0.6
= 0.4
iv) P( A  B ') v) P( A ' B ') ii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
vi) P( A ' B ') = 0.6 + 0.4 = 1
iii) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)'
Solution = 1 − P(A  B)
=1−0 =1
i) P  A ' B   P  B 
Hence P  B   0.3 2. A, B and C are exhaustive events such that
P(A) = 0.1, 2P(B) = P(C)
Find (i) P(B) (ii) P(C) iii) P(A  B)
ii) P  A ' B   P  A '
Solution
P  A '   0.45 i) P(A  B  C) = 1
P  A  1  0.45  0.55 P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 1
iii) P  A  B  0 0.1 + P(B) + 2P(B) = 1
3P(B) = 0.9
iv P( A  B ')  P  A = 0.55
0.9
v) P  A ' B '  P  A  B  ' (Demorgan’s rule) P  B   0.3
3
 1  P  A  B   1  [0.3  0.55] ii) P(C) = 2 × 0.3 = 0.6
 1  0.85  0.15 iii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
vi) P  A ' B '  P( A  B)' (Demorgan’s rule) = 0.1 + 0.6 = 0.7
 1  P( A  B)
=1–0=1 Undefined Events
3. A and B are mutually exclusive events such that For undefined events A and B,
P( A  B)  0.9 , P( A  B ')  0.6 P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B)
Find: i) P  B  ii) P  A Where P(A  B) has no restrictions unlike for mutually
exclusive and independent events.
iii) P  A ' B  iv) P  A ' B ' By considering the Venn diagram below,
v) P( A ' B ')
Solution
i) P(A  B') = P(B')
P(B') = 0.6
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
OR: P(A'  B') = P(A') + P(B') − P(A'  B')
A B
= 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.1 = .9
2. Events A and B are such that P(A'  B) = 0.3, P(A  B)
= 0.8, P(A  B) = 0.2
A B' A B A' B
a) Find: i) P(B) ii) P(A)
` iii) P(A'  B) iv) P(A'  B')
(A B)'
v) P(A'  B')
P(A) = P(A  B) + P(A  B') b) Show whether A and B are mutually exclusive or
P(B) = P(A  B) + P(A'  B) independent events
The above results are summarized in a square table known Solution
as a contingency table. i) From the contingency table, (It is advisable to draw it
For events A and B, we have: whenever referring to it)
P(B) = P(A  B) + P(A1  B)
Contingency Table = 0.2 + 0.3 = 0.5
1 B B' 1 ii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B
A A B A  B' A 0.8 = P(A) + 0.5 − 0.2
A' A'  B A'  B' A' P(A) = 0.8 − 0.3 = 0.5
1 B B' iii) P(A'  B) = P(A') + P(B) − P(A'  B)
From the table above, = 0.5 + 0.5 − 0.3 = 0.7
P(A) = P(A  B) + P(A  B') iv) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' By Demorgan’s rule
P(A') = P(A'  B) + P(A'  B') = 1 − P(A  B)
P(B) = P(A  B) + P(A'  B) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2
P(B') = P(A  B') + P(A'  B') v) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' By Demorgan’s rule
= 1 − P(A  B)
Examples = 1 − 0.2 = 0.8
1. Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.4, P(A  B) = b) For mutually exclusive events, P(A  B) = 0
0.9, P(A  B) = 0.1 But P(A  B) = 0.2. Hence the events are not mutually
Find: i) P(B) ii) P(A  B') exclusive
iii) P(A  B') iv) P(A'  B') Or; For mutually exclusive events,
v) P(A'  B') P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
Solution 0.8  (0.5 + 0.5 = 1)
i) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B)
0.9 = 0.4 + P(B) − 0.1 For independent events, P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B)
0.9 − 0.3 = P(B) Now P(A  B) = 0.2
P(B) = 0.6 P(A) × P(B) = 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25
ii) By using the contingency table; P(A  B)  P(A) × P(B)
1 B B' 1  The events are not independent.
A A B A  B' A Hence the events are neither mutually exclusive nor
A' A'  B A'  B' A' independent
1 B B' 1
From the table above; 3. For three events A, B and C, prove that
P(A) = P(A  B) + P(A  B') P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A  B) − P(A  C)
0.4 = 0.1 + P(A  B') − P(B  C) + P(A  B  C)
P(A  B') = 0.3 Solution
iii) P(A  B') = P(A) + P(B') − P(A  B') Let B  C = X
= 0.4 + 0.4 − 0.3= 0.5 P(A  B  C) = P(A  X)
iv) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' By Demorgan’s rule P(A  X) = P(A) + P(X) − P(A  X)
= 1 − P(A  B) (By induction) Substituting for X;
= 1 − 0.9 = 0.1 P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B  C) − P(A  B  C)
OR from the table above, = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B  C) − P(A  B  A  C)
P(B') = P(A  B') + P(A'  B') = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(B  C) –
0.4 = 0.3 + P(A'  B')  P( A  B)  P( A  C)  P( A  B  C)
P(A'  B') = 0.1
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(B  C) − P(A  B) − P(A  C)
v) P(A'  B') = P(A  B)' By Demorgan’s rule
+ P(A  B  C).
= 1 − P(A  B) (By induction)
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A  B) − P(A  C) − P(B  C)
= 1 − 0.1
+ P(A  B  C).
= 0.9
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
4. Events A, B and C are such that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 2. Events A and B are such that P (A  B) = 0.8,
P  A B   0.2 and P (A'  B) = 0.4
0.3, P(C) = 0.5, P(A  C) = 0.1 and P(B  C) = 0.2.
Find i) P (B) (ii) P (A  B) (iii) P (A)
If A and B are mutually exclusive, find: (iv) P  A B ' (v) P  A ' B '
i) P(A  B  C) ii) P(A  B  C)
Solution
P( A  B)
P  A B 
Solution
(i)
i) Since A and B are mutually exclusive, P( B)
P(A  B) = 0, hence P(A  B  C) = 0 P( A  B)
0.2 
ii) P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A  C) − P( B)
P(B  C) 0.2 P( B)  P( A  B)
= 0.4 + 0.3 + 0.5 − 0.1 − 0.2 = 0.9 But P (B) = P (A  B) + P (A'  B)
P (B) = 0.2P (B) + 0.4
Conditional Probability 0.8P (B) = 0.4
0.4
This is a case where one event occurs given that the other P( B)   0.5
has already occurred. The probability that event A occurs 0.8
P(A  B) = 0.2P(B)
given that B has already occurred denoted by P  A B  is
ii)
= 0.2 × 0.5 = 0.1
P( A  B) iii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B)
defined as P  A B  0.8 = P(A) + 0.5 − 0.1
P( B)
0.8 = P(A) + 0.4
Note: i) If the events are independent, then P(A) = 0.4
P( A)  P( B) P( A  B ')
P  A B   P( A) iv) P  A B ' 
P( B) P( B ')
ii) If events are mutually exclusive, then But P(A) = P(A  B) + P(A  B')
P( A  B) 0 0.4 = 0.1 + P(A  B')
P  A B   0 P(A  B') = 0.3
P( B) P( B)
0.3
iii) P  A B   P  A ' B   1 Hence P  A B ' 
1  0.5
Proof:
0.3
  0.6
0.5
P( A  B) P( A ' B)
P  A B  P  A' B   P( A ' B ')
P( B) P( B) v) P  A ' B ' 
P( B ')
P( A  B)  P( A ' B)
 P( A  B ) ' 1  P( A  B )
P( B)  
P( B ') P( B ')
P( B) 1  0.8 0.2
 1    0.4
P( B) 0.5 0.5
Examples
3. The probability that a regular scheduled flight departs
1. A and B are events such that P  A B  = 0.4, on time is 0.83 and the probability that it arrives on
P(B) = 0.25 and P(A) = 0.2. time is 0.92. The probability that it departs on time and
Find: (i) P(A  B) (ii) P  B/A  arrives on time is 0.78. Find the probability that the
(iii) P(A  B) plane:
Solution a) arrives on time given that it departs on time
P( A  B) b) departs on time given that it arrives on time.
(i) P  A B   Solution
P( B)
Let TA  event that the flight arrives on time
P( A  B)
P  A B  TD  Event that the flight departs on time
P( B)
P( A  B)
Now P TA   0.83
0.4 
0.25 P TD   0.92
P(A  B) = 0.4 × 0.25 = 0.1 P TD  TA   0.78
P( B  A)
(ii) P  B A  P TD  TA  0.78
P( A) a) P TA TD     0.94
P TD  0.83
P( A  B ) 0.1
   0.5 P TD  TA  0.78
P( A) 0.2 b) P TD TA     0.85
(iii) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B) P TA  0.92
= 0.2 + 0.25 − 0.1 4. In a large group of people it is known that 10% have a
= 0.35 hot breakfast, 20% have a hot lunch and 25% have a hot
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
breakfast or a hot lunch. Find the probability that a The “AND” Situation
person chosen at random from this group: This arises under two circumstances
a) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch
i) when we are interested in the joint occurrence of
b) has a hot lunch, given that he had a hot breakfast.
events
Solution
ii) when we are dealing with a sequence of events
Let B = Event that a person has a hot breakfast
L = Event that a person has a hot lunch
Now P(B) = 10% = 0.1 (i) Consider a case of joint occurrence of events:
P(L) = 20% = 0.2 Here we could use Venn diagrams for illustrations
P(B  L) = 25% = 0.25 Example
1. At a certain school, students take either Maths or
a) P(B  L) = P(B) + P(L) − P(B  L)
0.25 = 0.1 + 0.2 − P(B  L) Economics or none of these two. There are 100 students
P(B  L) = 0.3 − 0.25 = 0.05 of whom 20 take Maths, 70 take Economics and 30 take
P( L  B) 0.05 neither subject. What is the probability that a student
b) P  L B     0.5 chosen at random takes both Economics and Maths?
P( B) 0.1
Solution
5. In a group of 100 people, 40 own a cat, 25 own a dog Let M = Event that a student takes Maths,
and 15 own a cat and a dog. Find the probability that a E = Event that a student takes Economics
person chosen at random:
i) owns a dog or a cat Let n  M  E   x
ii) owns a dog or a cat but not both
iii) owns a dog given that he owns a cat
iv) doesn’t own a cat, given that he owns a dog M E
Solution
Let C = event that a person owns a cat
20 − x x 70 − x
D = event that a person owns a dog
40
P C    0.4 30
100
25
P  D   0.25 From the Venn diagram above,
100
20 − x + 70 − x + x + 30 = 100
15
P C  D    0.15 120 − x = 100
100
x = 20
(i) P(D or C) = P(D  C)
P(D  C) = P(D) + P(C) − P(D  C) n( M  E ) 20
PM  E    0.2
= 0.4 + 0.25 – 0.15 n( ) 100
= 0.5 2. In a group of 30 students, all study at least one of the
   
(ii) P Donly  Conly  P Donly  P Conly   subjects Physics and biology, 20 attend the Physics class
and 21 attend the Biology class. Find the probability that
D C
a student chosen at random studies both Physics and
Biology
0.25 − 0.15 Solution
0.15 0.4 − 0.15
= 0.1 = 0.25 P B
0.5
20 − x x 21 − x
P  Donly  Conly   0.1  0.25
 0.35
P( D  C ) 0.15
(iii) P  D C     0.375 From the Venn diagram above,
P(C ) 0.40 20 − x + 21 − x + x = 30
(iv) P  C ' D   1  P  C D  41 − x = 30
x = 11
P (C  D ) 0.15
 1  1 n( P  B ) 11
P( D ) 0.25 P P  B    0.275
n( ) 40
 1  0.6  0.4
(ii) Considering sequence of events
Probability Situations Suppose we have events A, B and C, the probability that
The possible situations that will be considered are: they occur in the order A, B, C is given by P(A  B  C).
- The ‘AND’ situation If the events are independent, then
- The ‘OR’ situation P(A  B  C) = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)
- The ‘AND and ONLY’ situation
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
Examples 1. In an experiment, two fair dice each numbered from 1 to
1. A bag contains 8 red, 2 white and 6 blue balls. Three 6 are simultaneously tossed, determine the probability
balls are drawn at random from the bag. Find the that:
i) a sum of either 7 or a sum which is a prime number is
probability that the balls are drawn in this order Red,
obtained
White and Blue if the: ii) a sum of either a composite number or even number is
i) balls are drawn with replacement obtained
ii) balls are drawn without replacement
Solution Solution
Let R1  a red ball is drawn on first draw Table of sums
W2  a white ball is drawn on second draw First die
B3  a blue ball is drawn on third draw 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Red White Blue Total
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
8 2 6 16
3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Second die
i) Drawing with replacement 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
P(Red, White, Blue) = P( R1 and W2 and B3 ) 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 P  R1  W2  B3  Let A = sum of prime numbers
B = sum of 7 numbers
 P  R1   P W2   P  B3 
E = a sum of even numbers
8 2 6 96 C = Composite numbers
  
16 16 16 4096 n(A) 6 1
(i) n(A) = P  A    
 0.0234 n(S) 36 6
ii) Drawing without replacement B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11}
P(Red, White, Blue) = P( R1 and W2 and B3 ) When you count them in the table, they are 15.
 P  R1  W2  B3  So n(B) = 15
n( B ) 15
 P  R1   P W2 R1   P  B3 R1  W2  P( B)  
n( S ) 36
8 2 6
   P (A or B)  P( A  B )
16 15 14
96 = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
  0.02857 6 15 6
3360 P(A or B) =  
2. Three boys A, B and C take part in a swimming 36 36 36
competition. The respective probabilities of hitting the 15 5
 
1 1 1 36 12
target are , and . If they all throw at the target at
2 3 4 (ii)Note: A composite number is a number that has got at
once, find the probability that the target will be hit by all least two distinct factors apart from 1 and itself.
of them. Now C = {6, 8, 10, 12}
Solution n(C) = 14
n(C ) 14
1 1
P  A  , P  B   , P  C  
1 P(C )  
2 3 4 n( S ) 15
P(target will be hit by all) E = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12}
=P(Ahits) and P(Bhits) and P(Chits) n(E) = 18
= P(A  B  C) n( E ) 18
P(E) = 
= P(A) × P(B) × P(C) n( S ) 36
1 1 1 1 C  E = {6, 8, 10, 12}
    n  C  E  = 14
2 3 4 24
P  C or E   P(C  E )
The OR situation
 P ( C )  P ( E )  P (C  E )
This is a situation in which we are interested in the
occurrence of either one or two or three or ….. or all of the 14 18 14 18 1
    
events in question. 36 36 36 36 2
If A and B are two events, the probability that either A or 2. An experiment involves randomly drawing two balls
without replacement from a bag consisting of 10 white
B or even both occur is denoted by P(A  B) which is
and 6 red balls. Determine the probability that the
defined as second ball is white
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B) Solution
Example White Red Total
10 6 16
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
Let W1 = a white ball is picked on the first draw
R1 = a red ball is picked on the 1st draw 1 6 8 2 1 8 2 6 1
        
W2 = a white ball is drawn on the second draw 3 7 9 3 7 9 3 7 9
48 16 12 76
   
So the second ball will be white when either the first ball 189 189 189 189
drawn is white or red  0.4021
So P W2   P  R1 W2  or P W1 W2  (iv) P(two hit the target)
6 10 10 9 = P(A  B  C') + P(A  B'  C) + (A'  B  C)
    =P(A).P(B).P(C') + P(A).P(B').P(C) + (A').P(B).P(C)
16 15 16 15
60 90 90 1 1 8 1 6 1 2 1 1
    0.625         
240 240 240 3 7 9 3 7 9 3 7 9
8 6 2 16
     0.0842
The „ONE‟ and „ONLY‟ Situation 189 189 189 189
This is a situation in which we may be interested in only (v) P(At least one hits the target)
one of a series of events to happen , while others fail, or = P(only one hits) + P(two hits) + P(All hit)
two of them to occur while others fail or none of them to
76 16 1 93
occur. If A, B, C are events with corresponding 0.4921
189 189 189 189
probabilities of occurrence P(A), P(B), P(C) and
probabilities of non-occurrence P(A'), P(B') and P(C') OR: P(At least one hits the target)
Assuming independent occurrence of events, = 1 – P(none hits the target)
i) P(All of them occur) = P(A  B  C) 96 93
= P(A).P(B).P(C)  1 
189 189
ii) P(None of them occur) = P(A'  B'  C') 2. Three boys John, Patrick and Tom take part in a
= P(A').P(B').P(C')
shooting competition. Their respective probabilities of
iii) P(Only one of them occurs)
=P(A  B'  C') or P(A'  B'  C') or P(A'  B'  C') 1 1 1
hitting the target are , and . If all of them fire at
=P(A).P(B').P(C') + P(A').P(B).P(C') + P(A').P(B').P(C) 3 4 5
iv) P(Only two of them occur) one, find the probability that the target will be hit.
= P(A'  B  C) + P(A  B'  C) + P(A  B  C') Solution
=P(A')×P(B)×P(C)+P(A)×P(B')×P(C)+P(A)×P(B)×P(C') The target may be either hit by John, Patrick or Tom
v) P(At most two of them occur) Let J = Event that John hits the target
= 1 − P(three of them occur) P = Event that Patrick hits the target
= 1 − P(A  B  C) T = Event that Tom hits the target
= 1 − (P(A).P(B).P(C))
Now P(J or P or T) = P(J  P  T)
Examples
P(J  P  T) = P(J) + P(P) + P(T) – P(J  P) – P(J  T) –
1. In a shooting contest, three marks men A, B and C are
P(P  T) + P(J  P  T)
said to participate. Their respective chances of hitting
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1            
the target are , and . If all the three fire at 3 4 5 3 4 3 5 4 5 3 4 5
3 7 9
20  15  12 1 1 1 1
once, find the probability that the target will be hit by:     
i) none of them 60 12 15 20 60
47  5  4  1
ii) all of them 
iii) only one of them 60
iv) only two of them 36
  0.6
v) at least one of them 60
vi) at most two of them
Cases involving competing in turns;
Solution In the previous case, all the participants fire at the target at
(i) P(None hits the target) = P(A'  B'  C') once. Now in this case, participants take turns to hit at the
=P(A').P(B').P(C') target and whoever hits the target first becomes the winner
2 6 8 96 and the competition ends
= × × = = 0.5079
3 7 9 189 Examples
(ii) P(all hit the target) 1. Two boys A and B aim at hitting the target. The
= P(A  B  C) 1
probability that A hits the target is and that B hits the
1 1 1 1 3
= × × = = 0.0053
3 7 9 189
(iii) P(only one hits the target)
= P(A  B'  C') or P(A'  B  C') or P(A'  B'  C)
= P(A).P(B').P(C') + P(A').P(B).P(C')+ P(A').P(B').P(C)
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
1 (iv) P(B wins) = P(B wins on 1 st trial) or P(B wins on 2nd
target is . It is also known that if anyone of the two hits
4 trial) or P(B wins on 3rd trial) or ... P(B wins on nth
the target first, becomes the winner and the game ends. trial)
Suppose that A starts first to hit at the target followed by  P( A1 ' B)  P( A1 ' B1 ' A2 ' B)  ........
B, find the probability that:
i) A wins on the second trial 2 1 2 3 2 1
       ....
ii) B wins on the 1st trial 3 4 3 4 3 4
iii) A wins 1 1
iv) B wins    ....
6 12
Solution
1 1 6 1
1
P( A)  , P( A ') 
2 a and r   
3 3 6 12 1 2
1
1 3 P(B wins)  6
P( B)  , P( B ') 
4 4 1  12
i) P(A wins on 2nd trial) = P(A misses on 1st trial and B 1 1 1 2 1
misses on 1st trial and A wins on 2nd trial)     
6 2 6 1 3
 P( A1 ' B1 ' A2 ) 2. Three participants A, B and C take part in a shooting
 P( A1 ')  P( B1 ')  P( A2 ) competition. Their respective probabilities of hitting
2 3 1 1 1 1 1
    the target are , and . It is known that if any one
3 4 3 6 4 3 5
Note: Since it is A who starts first to hit at the target, once of the three hits the target first becomes the winner and
he hits the target, then he becomes the winner and the the competition ceases. If it is A who starts first
game ends. So there is no need to proceed to B on the followed by C and then B. Find the probability that:
2nd trial. (i) C wins on the 2nd attempt
(ii) P(B wins on the 1st trial)  P( A11  B1 ) (ii) B wins
Solution
 P( A11 )  P( B1 ) 1 3
P(A) = , P(A') =
2 1 1 4 4
  
3 4 6 1 2
P(B) = , P(B') =
(iii) P(A wins) = P(either he wins on the 1st trial or 2nd or 3 3
3rd or ..... nth trial)
1 4
= sum of a Geometric Progression to infinity P(C) = , P(C') =
5 5
a
 ; (i) P(C wins on 2nd attempt) =
1 r
P  A11  C11  B1 ' A2 ' C2 ' B2 
Where a = 1st term and r = common ratio
1 = P(A1')  P(C1')  P(B1')  P(A2')  P(C2)
Now P(A wins on the 1st trial) = P(A) = 3 4 2 3 1 3
3      
4 5 3 4 5 50
P(A wins on the 2nd trial)  P( A1 ' B1 ' A2 )
(ii) P(B wins) = P(B wins on 1 st trial or P(B wins on 2nd
2 3 1 1 trial) or …
   
3 4 3 6  P  A1 ' C11  B1   P  A11  C11  B1 ' A2 ' C2 ' B2   ....
P(A wins on 3 trial)  P( A1 ' B1 ' A2  B2 ' A3 )
rd
3 4 1 3 4 2 3 4 1

         ...
2 3 2 3 1 1 4 5 3 4 5 3 4 5 3
     
3 4 3 4 3 12 1 2
   ...
1 1 1 1 5 25
Now a  and r    a
3 6 3 2 
1 1 1 1 r
OR: r    1 2 5 2
12 6 2 a , r  
1 1 1 5 25 1 5
P(A wins)  3 1  
1 2 3 2
1
5
P(B wins) =
1 52
1 2 2
   1 3
3 1 3 
5 5
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
1 5 1 P(Two items are defective) = P(DDN) + P(DND) +
  
5 3 3 P(NDD)
10 9 30 10 30 9 30 10 9
Use of Probability tree Diagrams         
40 39 38 40 39 38 40 39 38
This is used when dealing with:- 2700 2700 2700
(a) Selection of items out of the lot given   
59280 59280 59280
(b) Baye’s rule
8100
We shall use probability tree diagrams for Baye’s rule   0.1366
59280
when looking at it in the next section
2. Two baskets A and B contain similar balls. A contains 8
Selection of items: white and 5 red balls where as B contains 10 white and
Here there must be at least two possible outcomes for 6 red balls. A ball is randomly drawn from basket A and
every trial of the experiment performed. transferred to basket B. a ball is then randomly drawn
1. Three items are randomly picked from a bag containing from B, find the probability that it will be white.
10 defective (D) and 30 non defective (N) items. Find White Red Total
2 A 8 5 13
the probability that of these items are defective if: B 10 6 16
3
(i) the items are picked with replacement Let WA = White ball is drawn from A
(ii) the items are picked without replacement WB = White ball is drawn from B
Solution RA = Red ball is drawn from A
Defective Non defective Total RB = Red ball is drawn from B
When a ball is transferred from A to B, the total number
10 30 40
of balls in B will now be 17
10 1
P( D)  
40 4 WB WA WB
30 3
P( N )  
40 4 WA
Since n = 3, we need two defective items out of 3. RB WA RB
(i) With replacement WB
RA WB
D DDD
RA
D
N DDN
RB RA RB
D D DND
N
N DNN P(White ball is picked from B)
D
D
NDD
= P(WA  WB) or P(RA  WB)
N N NDNI = P(WA)  P(WB/WA) + P(RA)  P(WB/RA)
N D NNDI
8 5 10
  11  
N NNNI 13 13 17
88 50 138
    0.6244
P(Two items are defective) = P(DDN) + P(DND) + 221 221 221
P(NDD) 3. Two bags A and B contain similar marbles. A contains
1 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 1 6 green and 8 blue marbles where as B contains 9 green
        
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 and 7 blue marbles. A bag is picked at random unseen
3 3 3 and from it one marble is picked and placed in the other
  
64 64 64 bag. If a marble is finally picked from this second bag,
9 find the probability that the marble selected is blue

64 Green Blue Total
D DDD A 6 8 14
D B 9 7 16
N DDN
Let GA = Green marble is picked from bag A
D D DND
N bA = blue marble is picked from bag A
N DNN GB = green marble is picked from bag B
D NDD
D bB = blue marble is picked from B
N N NDNI Since a bag is picked at random from the two bags
N D NNDI
available, it means that the probability of picking either
N NNNI 1
bag is
2
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
GB = 0.252651
A GA GB
GA (ii) P(1st ball drawn is blue)
bA A GA GB = P(P  BP  BQ) + P(P  BP  RQ) + P(Q  BQ  BP) +
A
N
GB A bA GB P(Q  BQ  RP)
bB A bA bB 1 5 5 1 5 6 1 4 6 1 4 3
Bag GB B GB GA
           
D 2 8 11 2 8 11 2 10 9 2 10 9
B bA B GB bA 25 36 24 12
GA B bB GA
   
N 176 176 180 180
55 36
bB B bB bA    0.3125  0.2
176 180
P(Marble picked from 2nd bag is blue)  0.5125
= P(A  GA  bB) + P(A  bA  bB) + P(B  GB  bB) +
(iii) P(1st ball is red given the second ball is blue)
P(b  bB  bB)
Let A = first ball drawn is red
1 6 7 1 8 8 1 9 8 1 7 9
            B = second ball drawn is blue
2 14 17 2 14 17 2 16 15 2 16 15 P( A  B)
42 64 72 63 Now P(A/B) =
    P( B)
476 476 480 480
P(A  B) = P(1st ball is red and 2nd ball is blue)
106 135
  = P(P  RP  BQ) + P(Q  RQ  BP)
476 480
1 3 4 1 6 5
= 0.222689 + 0.28125      
= 0.5040 (4 dp) 2 8 11 2 10 9
12 30
4. Two boxes P and Q contain similar balls. Box Q  
176 180
contains 6 red and 4 blue balls while box P contains 3  0.2348484848
red and 5 blue balls. A box is randomly drawn and from
it a ball is randomly drawn and put into the other. A P(B) = P(2nd ball is blue)
ball is then drawn from this latter box. Find the = P(P  BP  BQ) + P(P  RP  BQ) + P(Q  BQ  BP) +
probability that P(Q  RQ  BP)
1 5 5 1 3 4 1 4 6 1 6 5
i) both balls are red            
ii) the first ball drawn is blue 2 8 11 2 8 11 2 10 9 2 10 9
iii) the first ball drawn is red given that the second 25 12 24 30
ball drawn is blue    
176 176 180 180
Solution 37 54
Red Blue Total  
176 180
P 3 5 8  0.5102272727
Q 6 4 10 0.2348484848
Let BP = a blue ball is drawn from box P P(A/B)  = 0.46028
0.5102272727
RP = red ball is drawn from box P
5. Three bags A, B and C contain respectively 3 white and
BQ = blue ball is drawn from box Q
2 red balls, 4 white and 4 red, 5 white and 2 red balls. A
RQ = red ball is drawn from box Q
ball is drawn unseen from A and placed in B. a ball is
BQ P BP BQ then drawn from B and placed in C. find the probability
BP
RQ P BP RQ that if a ball is now drawn from C, it will be red.
P BQ P RP BQ Solution
RP
RQ P RP RQ White Red Total
Box BP Q BQ BP A 3 2 5
BQ
Q RP Q BQ RP
B 4 4 8
BP Q RQ BR C 5 2 7
RQ
Let RA = red ball is drawn from bag A
RQ Q RQ RP RB = red ball is drawn from bag B
(i) P(both balls are red) = P(P  RP  RQ) + P(Q  RQ  RC = red ball is drawn from bag C
RP)
WA = white ball is drawn from bag A
1 3 7 1 6 4 WB = white ball is drawn from bag B
     
2 8 11 2 10 9 WC = white ball is drawn from bag C
21 24
 
176 180
= 0.119318 + 0.133333
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory

RC examiner, the probability that this teacher is a male is

RA RB RC
given by P(M/E)
RB
WC RA RB WC P( M  E )
Now P(M/E) 
RA RC RA WB RC P( E )
WB
WC RA WB WC But P(E) = P(M  E) + P(F  E)
RC WA RB RC
RB P( M )  P(E/M)
WA RB WC Hence P(M/E) =
WA
WC P( M )  P(E/M)  P( F )  P(E/F)
RC WA WB RC
WB This equation represents Baye’s rule.
WC WA WB WC Generally, for n partitions, B1, B2, B3, … Bn of sample
space S, for any event A in the sample space S, we have;
P(ball drawn from C is red) = P( Bi  A)
P(RA  RP  RC) + P(RA  WB  RC) + P(WA  RB  RC) + P(Bi/A) = where i = 1, 2, 3, …, n
P( A)
P(WA  WB  RC)
Examples
2 5 3 2 4 2 3 4 3 3 5 2
            1. In a manufacturing plant, there are two different
5 9 8 5 9 8 5 9 8 5 9 8
machines A and B. 20% and 80% of the items are
30 16 36 30
    produced by A and B respectively. It has been
360 360 360 360
established that 5% of the items produced by A and 8%
112
  0.3111 of the items produced by B are defective. If one item is
360
selected at random from the lot produced, determine the
Note: When using tree diagrams, you make sure that the
probability that:
sum of probabilities for every branch is 1
(i) It is defective
(ii) It is produced by A given that it is defective
Total Theorem Solution
Suppose that at St. Mary’s College Kisubi there are two Let A = item is produced by A
categories of teachers; males (M) and Females (F). Among B = item is produced by B
these two categories, there are UNEB Examiners (E). If in D = item is defective
a survey of these teachers at the school we are interested in Now P(A) = 20% = 0.2
randomly picking an Examiner from the school, then the P(B) = 80% = 0.8
examiner will either be a male or a female. This is P(D/A) = 5% = 0.05
illustrated in the diagram below. P(D/B) = 8% = 0.08
(i) D
E

B D
F E
A D
M E

P(D) = P(A  D) + P(B  D)

The examiners are sub-divided into two non-intersecting
= P(A)  P(D/A) + P(B)  P(D/B)
groups called partitions
= 0.2 × 0.05 + 0.8 × 0.08
Note: We say a person is either a male and an examiner or
= 0.01 + 0.064
a female and an examiner.
= 0.074
So E = M  E or F E
P(E) = P(M  E) + P(F  E) P ( A  D)
(ii) P(A/D) =
= P(M)  P(E/M) + P(F)  P(E/F) P ( D)
This is called the theorem of total probability. P( A)  P(D/A)

In general, if B1, B2, B3 … Bn constitute partitions of a P( D )
sample space S, then for any event A in S 0.2  0.05 0.01
   0.1351
A = (B1  A) or (B2  A) or (B3  A) or … or (Bn  A) 0.074 0.074
P(A) = P(B1  A) + P(B2  A) + P(B3  A) + … + P(Bn 
A) Alternatively
= P(B1)  P(A/B1) + P(B2)  P(A/B2) + … + P(Bn)  (i) By using the probability factor tree diagram
P(A/Bn)

Baye‟s Rule
Now from the total theorem just explained above, if a
teacher is picked at random and found out to be an
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
0.05 D/A having the disease is 0.05, what is the probability that a
person is diagnosed as having cancer?
A Solution
0.2
0.95
D'/A
Let C = A person has cancer
D/B D = A person is diagnosed as having cancer
0.08
0.8 D
B
0.92
D'/B
C D
P(D) = P(A)  P(D/A) + P(B)  P(D/B)
C' D
= 0.2 × 0.05 + 0.8 × 0.08
= 0.01 + 0.064 = 0.074
1 P(D) = P(C  D) + P(C'  D)
2. A certain device has probability of detecting an = P(C)  P(D/C) + P(C')  P(D/C)
3
= 0.02 × 0.7 + 0.98 × 0.05
1
‘AIDS’ victim as having AIDS and probability of of = 0.014 + 0.049 = 0.063
4
detecting ‘Non-AIDS’ victim as having AIDS. The device 4. In a certain city, 30% of the people are conservatives,
is used on a population, 20% of which have AIDS. What is 50% are liberals and 20% are independents. Records
the probability that a person is detected as an AIDS victim indicate that in an election, 65% of the conservatives
by the device?
voted, 85% of the liberals voted and 50% of the
Solution
Let D = detecting a person as having AIDS independents voted. A person in the city is selected at
A = person has AIDS random.
A' = person has no AIDS i) Determine the probability that he voted
Note: A person could be detected as having AIDS when ii) Given that he didn’t vote, determine the
he has AIDS or when he has no AIDS probability that he is a conservative
D
Solution
Let C = A person is conservative
A' D L = A person is liberal
A D
I = A person is independent
V = A person voted
Now P(L) = 0.5, P(C) = 0.3, P(I) = 0.2,
P(D) = P(A  D) + P(A'  D)
= P(A)  P(D/A) + P(A')  P(D/A') P(V/L) = 0.85, P(V/C) = 0.65, P(V/I) = 0.5
1 1
 0.2   0.8  (i) V
3 4
0.2 0.8 C V
 
3 4 I V
0.8  2.4 3.2
   0.2667 L V
12 12
OR by using the probability tree diagram;
D/A P(V) = P(C  V) + P(L  V) + P(I  V)
= P(C)  P(V/C) + P(L)  P(V/L) + P(I)  P(V/I)
A
=0.3 × 0.65 + 0.5 × 0.85 + 0.20 × 0.5
0.2
= 0.195 + 0.425 + 0.1
D'/A
D/A' = 0.72
P(C  V ') P(C )  P(V '/ C )
0.8
A' (ii) P(C / V ')  
P(V ') 1  P(V )
D'/A' But P(V'/C) = 1 – P(V/C) = 1 – 0.65
= 0.35
P(D) = P(A)  P(D/A) + P(A')  P(D/A')
0.3  0.35
1 1  P(V'/C) =
 0.2   0.8  1  0.72
3 4
3.2
  0.2667 0.105
12   0.375
3. In a Kampala clinic, it is known that the probability of 0.28
selecting a person with cancer is 0.02. If the probability
of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as OR; by using the probability tree diagram;
having the disease is 0.7 and the probability of
incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory

0.65 V/C Examination Questions

C 1. (a) A box contains 3 red, 2 green and 5 blue crayons.
0.35 Two crayons are randomly selected from the box
0.3 V'/L without replacement, find the probability that:
0.85 V/L i) the crayons are of the same colour
0.5 L
ii) at least one red crayon is selected
0.15 b) In an experiment, a box contains 2 green and 5 blue
V '/L balls. A second box contains 5 green and 3 blue balls.
0.2 0.5 V/I
One ball is drawn at random from the second box and
I placed into the first box. What is the probability that a
0.5 V'/I
ball now drawn at random from the first box is green?
P(V )  P(C )  P(V / C )  P( L)  P(V / L)  P( I )  P(V / I ) (1990 No. 13)
= 0.3 × 0.65 + 0.5 × 0.85 + 0.20 × 0.5 Solution
= 0.195 + 0.425 + 0.1 = 0.72 a) Red (R) Green (G) Blue (B) Total
3 2 5 10
5. In a certain university, 75% of the students are full time
3 2 5
students, 45% of the students are female, and 40% of P( R)  , P(G )  and P( B) 
the students are male full time students. Find the 10 10 10
probability that: R2 R1 R1
a) a student chosen at random from the university is a
part time student G2 R1 G2
b) a student chosen at random from the university is a R1
B2 R1 B1
female and a part-time student.
c) a student chosen at random from the female students
R2 G1 R1
in the university is a part-time student.
Solution G1 G2 G1 G1
Let U = Event that student is a full-time student
Then U ' = Event that a student is a part time B2 G1 B1
F = Female student R2 G1 R1
M = Male student B1
 P(U) = 0.75 G2 B1 G1
P(F) = 0.45 B2 B1 B1
P(M  U) = 0.4
(a) P(U') = 1 − P(U) (i) P(All are of the same colour)
= 1 − 0.75 = 0.25 = P(R1  R2) + P(G1  G2) + P(B1  B1)
b) We need to find P( F U ') but a student is full time 3 2 2 1 5 4
     
10 9 10 9 10 9
when he is male or she is a female.
6 2 20
  
90 90 90
U 28 14
 
M U 90 45
(ii) P(at least one is red) = P(R1  R2) + P(R1  G2) +
F U
P(R1  G1) + P(G1  R2) + P(B1  R2)
3 2 3 2 3 5 2 3 5 3
         
10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9
P(U) = P(M  U) + P(F  U)
6 6 15 6 15
0.75 = 04 + P(F  U)     
P(F  U) = 0.35 90 90 90 90 90
48 8
But P(F) = P(F  U) + P(F  U')  
0.45 = 0.35 + P(F  U') 90 15
P(F  U') = 0.1 (b) Green(G) Blue(B) Total
c) Here, we need to find P U ' F  First box 2 5 7
Second box 5 3 8
P(U ' F )
But P U ' F   Let B1 = Blue ball from first box
P( F ) G1 = green ball from first box
0.1
P U ' F    0.2222
0.45 B2 = Blue ball from second box
G2 = Green ball from second box
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
B2 B1 = 0.6 × 0.l + 0.08
B1
= 0.l4
P(T  A ')
B2 (ii) P(T/A) 
G1 B2 G1 P( A ')
P(T  A ') P(T  A ')
 
1  0.4 0.86
But P(T) = P(T  A) +P(T  A')
B1 G2 B1
0.4 = 0.8 + P(T  A')
G2 P(T  A') = 0.32
0.32
G1 G2 G1  P(T/A') =  0.3721
0.86
P(G1) = P(B2  G1) + P(G2  G1) P(T  A ')
3 2 5 3 6 15 21 OR P(T/A') 
       P( A ')
8 8 8 8 64 64 64
P(T )  P( A '/ T ) 0.4  1  P( A / T )
Hence P(G1) =
21  
64 P( A ') 0.86
0.4  (1  0.2) 0.4  0.8
2 (a) Three balls are drawn at random one after the other    0.3721
0.86 0.86
without replacement from a bag containing 21 white, 9
blue, 40 red and 12 orange balls. Determine the 3. The probability of Mukasa waking up late is 0.3. When
probability that the first ball is blue, the second red or he wakes up late, the probability of being in time for
blue and the third is white. school is 0.2. When he wakes up early, the probability
of being punctual for school is 0.9. What is the
b) Tom is to travel from Lira to Kampala for an interview. probability of Mukasa:
The probabilities that he will be in time for the interview i) waking up late and being punctual?
when he travels by bus and taxi are 0.1 and 0.2 ii) waking up early and being punctual?
respectively. The probabilities that he will travel by bus iii) If he is on time, what is the probability that he woke
and taxi are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. up early?
i) Find the probability that he will be on time iv) What is the probability of being late for school?
ii) Given that he is not on time, what is the probability that Solution
he travelled by taxi? (1991 No 10) Let L = Waking up late
Solution T = being in time or punctual for school
a) Then L' = Waking up early
Now P(L) = 0.3,
White Blue Red Orange Total
P(T/L) = 0.2
21 9 40 12 82
P(T/L') = 0.9
Let W = White ball
(i) P(L  T) = P(L)  P(T/L)
B = Blue ball
= 0.3 × 0.2 = 0.06
R = Red ball
P(1st is blue and second is red or blue and third is white) (ii) P(L'  T) = P(L')  P(T/L')
= P(B1  R2  W3) + P(B1  B2  W3) = 0.7 × 0.9 = 0.63
9 40 21 9 8 21 P( L ' T ')
      (iii) P(L'/T) =
82 81 80 82 81 80 P(T )
7560 1512 9072
    0.0171 P( L ' T )
531360 531360 531360 
P( L  T )  P( L ' T )
b) Let B = Travelling by bus 0.63 0.63
   0.913
T = Travelling by tax 0.06  0.063 0.69
A = arriving on time for the meeting (iv) P(T') = 1 – P(T)
(i) = 1 – 0.913 = 0.087
A 4. (a) Two biased tetrahedrons have each their faces
B A numbered 1 to 4. The chances of getting any one face
showing uppermost is inversely proportional to the
number on it. If the two tetrahedrons are thrown and the
number on the uppermost face noted, determine the
T A
probability that the faces show the same number.
(b) If it is a fine day, the probability that Alex goes to
P(A) = P(B  A) + P(T  A)
9
= P(B)  P(A/B) + P(T)  P(A/T) play football is and the probability that Bob goes is
10
 Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
3 1 9. The probability that two independent events occur
. If it is not fine, Alex’s probability is and Bob’s is 2
4 2 together is 15 . The probability that either or both events
1
. Their decisions are independent. In general, it is 3
4 occur is 5 . Find the individual probabilities of the two
known that it is twice as likely to be fine as not fine.
(i) Determine the probability that both go to play events. (1998 Nov/Dec No 1)
(ii) If they both go to play, what is the probability that is a 1 2
fine day? (1994 No 12) Answer: and .
3 5
59 54
Answer: (a) 0.328 (b)(i) (ii)
120 120 10. Given that A and B are mutually exclusive events and
5. (a) In an examination, only two papers, namely 2 1
mathematics and Physics were done. The failure rates P(A) = and P(B) = , find:
3 2
were 45% and 40% respectively. i) P(A  B), ii)P(A  B1) iii)P(A1  B1).
The number of candidates who sat for the examination was
(1999 No 1)
2000. Find the probability that a candidate selected at
9 2 1
random Answer: (i) (ii) (iii)
(i) failed both mathematics and physics 10 5 10
(ii) passed both mathematics and physics 11. At a bus park, 60% of the buses are of Isuzu make,
(iii) passed mathematics and failed physics 25% are styer type and the rest are of Tata make. Of the
Determine the number of candidates who passed both Isuzu type, 50% have radios while for the Styer and Tata
papers in other grades given that 21.8% and 22.9% make types ,only 5% and 1% have radios, respectively. If
passed with distinction in mathematics and physics a bus is selected at random from the park, determine the
respectively probability that:
i) it has a radio
(b) When visiting a friend, john may go by road, air or ii) a styer type is selected given that it has a radio
rail. The probabilities of using road, air or rail are 0.3, 0.8 (1999 No. 7)
and 0.6 respectively. The corresponding probabilities of Answer: (i) 0.0315 (ii) 0.0398
arriving on an agreed time are 0.2, 0.8 and 0.1 12. A family plans to have 3 children.
respectively. Find the probability of having used the road i) Write down the possible sample space and construct its
given that he arrived on time probability distribution table.
(1995 No. 1) ii) Given that X is the number of boys in the family, find
Answer (a) (i) 0.18 (ii) 0.33 (iii) 0.22 (b) 0.0789 the expected number of boys. (2000 No. 1)
Answer:
6. In a survey of newspaper reading of members of staff of
a university, it is found that 80% read NEW VISION (N), (i) x 0 1 2 3
50 percent read MONITOR (M) and 30% read the EAST 1 3 3 1
AFRICAN (E). Further, 20% read both M and N, 15% P(X = x)
8 8 8 8
read both N and E and 10% read both M and E.
a) If a member of staff is chosen at random from the 3 6 3
xp(X=x) 0
university, find the probabilities 8 8 8
i. that the member reads none of the three papers (ii) 1.5
ii. the member is one of those who read at least one of the
three papers. 13. Two balls are randomly drawn without replacement
b) Estimate the number of members of staff who read at from a bag containing 10 white and 6 red balls. Find the
least two papers if the total number is 500 probability that the second ball drawn is
c) What is the probability that given that a member of b) red given that the first one was white
staff reads two papers, he reads all the three? c) white (2000 No. 3)
(1996 No. 14)
Answer (i) 0.4 (ii) 0.375
Answer: (a) This question was incorrectly set! 14. The events A and B are neither independent nor
mutually exclusive. Given that P(B) = 1/3, P(A)= ½ and
7. There are 3 black and 2 white balls in each of the two P(A  B1) = 1/3, Find:
bags. A ball is taken from the first bag and put in the
second, then a ball is taken from the second into the first, (i) P (A1  B1), (ii) P(A1/B1) (2001 No. 1)
what is the probability that there are now the same 5 1
Answer: (i) (ii)
number of black and white balls in each bag as there were 6 2
to begin with? (1998 March No 5) 15. (a) Bag A contains 3 green and 2 blue balls, while bag
3 B contains 2 green and 3 blue balls. A bad is selected at
Answer:
5 random and 2 balls drawn from it without replacement.
8. 64% of the students at A’ level take science subjects and Find the probability that the balls are of different
36% do Arts subjects. The probability of them being colours.
successful is ¾ for Science students and 5/6 for Arts (b) A fair die is drawn 6 times. Calculate the
students. Find the probability that a student chosen at probability that
random will fail. (1998 Mar. No. 8) i) A 2 or 4 appears on the first throw,
Answer: 0.22 ii) Four 5s will appear in the 6 throws.
(2001 No. 10)
 Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
19 1 Find the probability that his team will win the match.
Answer: (a) (b) (i ) (ii ) 0.008 (2005 No. 3)
30 3
7
Answer: .
16. On a certain day, fresh fish from lakes: Kyoga, 10
Victoria, Albert and George were supplied to one of the 22. a) A and B are intersecting sets as shown in the Venn
central markets of Kampala in the ratios 30%, 40%, 20% diagram below.
and 10% respectively. Each lake had an estimated ratio of A B
poisoned fish of 2%, 3% and 1% respectively. If a health
inspector picked a fish at random,
i. What is the probability that the fish was poisoned? x y x
ii. Given that the fish was poisoned, what is the probability
that it was from Lake Albert? (2002 No. 1) 0.15
Answers: (i) 0.025 (ii) 0.24
17. The chance that a person picked from a Kampala street Given that P(A) = 0.6, P A1 / B    5
7
, and P(A 
is 30 in every 48. The probability that that a person is a B) = 0.85, find
(ii) P  A / B 
university graduate given that he is employed is 0.6. Find
(i) the value of x, y and z
the
i) probability that the person picked at random from the b) A bag contains 4 white balls and 1 black ball. A
street is a university graduate and is employed second bag contains 1 white ball and 4 black balls. A ball
ii) number of people that are not university graduates and is drawn at random from the first bag and put into the
are employed from a group of 120 people. second bag, then a ball is taken from the second bag and
2002 No. 4) put into the first bag. Find the probability that a white ball
Answers: (i) 0.0.375 (ii) 30 will be picked when a ball is selected from the first bag.
(2005 No. 9)
18. Events A and B are such that P(A) = ½, 2 7
Answer: (a) (i) 0.5, 0.1 and z = 0.25 (ii) b)
7 10
P(B) = 3/8 and P(A/B) = 7/12, find
(i) P(A  B) (ii) P( B /A) (2003 No. 1) 23. A and B are two independent events with A twice as
1
likely to occur as B. If P  A  , find:
7 5 2
P  A  B
Answer: (i) (ii)
32 16 (ii)

19. The probability of two independent events P and Q (iii) p  A  B  / A (2006 No. 1)
occurring together is 1/8. The probability that either or Answer: (i) 5
(ii) 1
8 8
both events occur is 5/8. Find
a) P(P) 24. The table below shows the likelihood of where A and B
b) P(Q) (2004 No. 2) spend a Saturday evening.
1 1 1 1
Answer: (a)  ,  (b)  ,  A B
 2 4  4 2 1 2
20. a) Abel, Bob and Charles applied for the same job in a Goes to dance 2 3
certain company. The probability that Abel will take the 1 1
job is ¾. The probability that Bob will take it is ½ while Visits a neighbour 3 6
Stays at home 1 1
6 6
the probability that Charles won’t take the job is 1/3. What (i) Find the probability that they both go out.
is the probability that:
(ii) If we know they both go out, what is the probability
i) none of them will take the job?
ii) one of them will take the job? that they both went to dance?
b) Two events A and B are independent. Given that P(A  (2007 No. 5)
B1) = 14 and P(A1/B) = 16 , use a Venn diagram to find 25 12
Answer: (i) (ii)
the probabilities 36 25
i) P(A)
25 (a) A box contains 7 red balls and 6 blue balls. Three
ii) P(B)
balls are selected at random without replacement. Find
iii) P(A  B)
the probability that:
iv) P(A  B)1. (2004 No. 9)
(i) they are of the same colour.
1 1 (ii) at most two are blue.
Answer: (a) (i) (ii)
24 4 (b) Two boxes P and Q contain white and brown cards. P
5 7 7 1 contains 6 white cards and 4 brown cards. Q contains 2
(b) (i ) (ii ) (iii ) (iv)
6, 10 12 20 white cards and 3 brown cards. A box is selected at
random and a card is selected.
21. A good football striker is nursing his injury in the leg. Find the probability that:
The probability that his team will win the next match when (i) a brown card is selected.
he is playing is 4/5, otherwise it is 2/3. The probability that (ii) box Q is selected given that the card is white.
he will have recovered by the time of the match is ¼.
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2 Probability Theory
(2007 No. 15) (b) P(A∩B) (2011 No. 4)
Answer: Answers: (a) 7 1 1
(b) 7
(a) (i) 0.1923 (ii) 0.9301 (b) (i) 0.5 (ii) 0.4
26. The probability that Anne reads the New Vision is 0.75 and 32. Box A contains 4 red sweets and 3 green sweets.
the probability that she reads the New Vision and not the Box B contains 5 red sweets and 6 green sweets. Box
Daily Monitor is 0.65. The probability that she reads neither A is twice as likely to be picked as box B. If a box is
of the papers is 0.15. Find the probability that she reads the chosen at random and two sweets are removed from
Daily Monitor. (2008 No. 1) it, one at a time without replacement;
Answer: 0.2 (a) find the probability that the two sweets
27. If A and B are independent events; removed are of the same colour.
(i) show that events A and B' are also independent (b) (i) construct a probability distribution table for
(ii) find P(B) given that P(A) = 0.4 and P(A  B) = 0.8 the number of red sweets removed.
(2009 No. 9) (ii) find the mean number of red sweets removed.
Answer: (ii) 0.667 (2011 No. 15)
Answers: (a) 0.4372
28. A box contains two types of balls, red and black. (b) (i)
When a ball is picked from the box, the probability that it
x 0 1 2
is red is 7 12 . Two balls are selected at random from the
P(X = x) 0.1861 0.5628 0.2511
box without replacement.
Find the probability that (ii) 1
(i) the second ball is black 33. Two events A and B are such that P( A)  1 and
5
(ii) the first ball is red, given that the second one is black
b) An interview involves written, oral and practical tests. P( B) 
1 .Find P  A  B  when A and B are:
2
The probability that an interviewee passes a written test
(a) independent events,
is 0.8, the oral test is 0.6 and the practical test is 0.7.
What is the probability that the interviewee will pass (b) Mutually exclusive events. (2012 No. 2)
(i) the entire interview? Answers: (a) 0.6 (b) 0.7
(ii) exactly two of the interview tests? (2009 No. 13) 34. A box of oranges contains 20 good and 4
Answer: (i) 115 (ii) 117 (b) (i) 0.336 (ii) 0.452 bad oranges. If 5 oranges are picked at
random, determine the probability that 4 are
29. Two events M and N are such that P(M) = 0.7, good and the other is bad. (2012 No .15)
P(M∩N) = 0.45 and P(M'∩N') = 0.18. Find: Answer: 0.456
(a) P(N'),
(b) P(M or N but not both M and N) 35. Events A and B are such that
 
(2010 No. 1)
P A  B  
1 1
Answers: (a) 0.43 (b) 0.37 and P A  .
2 B 3
30. (a) The probabilities that three players A, B and C Find P  B  A '  . (2013 No. 4)
score in a netball game are 1 5 , 1 4 and 1 3 Answers: 1
6
respectively. If they play together in a game, 36. (a) A bag contains 30 white (W), 20 blue (B) and 20
what is the probability that: red (R) balls. Three balls are drawn at random one
(i) only C scores, after the other without replacement. Determine the
(ii) at least one player scores, probability that the first ball is white and the third
(iii) two and only two players score. ball is also white.
(b) There are 100 students taking principal mathematics (b) Events A and B are such that P(A) = 74 , p(A  B')
in a certain school. 56 of the students are boys and = 1
3
and P ( A / B) = 5
14
.
the remainder are girls. The probability that a student Find (i) P(B) (ii)P(A'  B'). (2014 No. 9)
takes principal mathematics given that the student is Answers: (a) 0.1801 (b) (i) 32 (ii) 0
a boy is 1/5. The probability that a student takes
principal mathematics given that the student is a girl
37. Events A and B are independent. P(A) = x,
is 1/11. If a student is chosen at random from the P(B) = x + 0.2 and P(A  B) = 0.65.
school, find the probability that the student:
Find the value of x. (2015 No.5)
(i) is a boy given that the student takes principal
mathematics, Answer: 0.3
(ii) does not take principal mathematics
(2010 No. 12) 16. A box A contains 4 white and 2 red balls.
Answers: (a) (i) 0.2 (ii) 0.6 (iii) 0.15 Another box B contains 3 white and 3 red balls.
(b) (i) 0.7368 (ii) 0.848
31. Two events A and B are such that P(A'∩B) = 3x, A box is selected at random and two balls are
4 picked one after the other without replacement.
P(A∩B') = 2x, P(A'∩B') = x, and P(B) = 7 .
Using a Venn diagram, find the values of (a) Find the probability that the two balls picked
(a) x, are red.
Simplified A’level mathematics Paper2
(b) Given that two white balls are picked, what is
the probability that they are from box B?
(2015 No.16)
Answer: (a) 2
15 (b) 0.3 (c) 13
EXERCISE 3
1. (a) The letters of the word PROBABILITY are arranged
at random. Find the probability that the two I’s is are
separated.
(b) If the letter in the word ABSTEMIOUS are arranged at
random, find the probability that the vowels and the
consonants appear alternately
2. (a) From a group of 6 men and 8 women, 5 women are
chosen at random. Find the probability that there are
more men chosen than women
b) From a bag containing 6 white counters and 8 blue
counters, 4 counters are chosen at random. Find the
probability that 2 white counters and 2 blue counters
are chosen
3. Two events C and D are such that P(C) = 0.7, P(D  C)
= 0.9, P(C  D) = 0.3. Find:
(a) P(D) (b) P(D'  C) (c) P(D  C')
(d) P(D'  C')
4. In a large group of people, it is known that 10% have a
hot breakfast, 20% have lunch and 25% have a hot
breakfast or a hot lunch. Find the probability that a
person chosen at random from this group
(a) has a hot breakfast and a hot lunch
(b) has a hot lunch, given that the person chosen had a hot
breakfast
5. Two children Akello (A) and Baale (B) play a game. An
ordinary die is thrown and the first person to throw a
four wins. Akello and Baale take it in turns to throw the
die starting with Akello. Find the probability that Baale
wins.
6. A stone is fired at the target and the probability that the
target is hit is 0.7
a) Find how many stones should be thrown so that the
probability that the target is hit at least once is greater
than 0.995
b) Find how many stones should be thrown so that the
probability that the target is not hit is less than 0.001
7. Each customer at a supermarket pays by one of the
following; Cash, Cheque or Credit card. The probability
of a randomly selected customer paying by cash is 0.54
and by cheque is 0.18.
a) Determine the probability of a randomly selected
customer paying by credit card.
b) If three customers are selected at random, find the
probability of:
(i) all three paying by cash
(ii) exactly one paying by cash
(iii) One paying by cash, one by cheque and one by credit
card
Probability Theory
8. A box contains 20 chocolates of which 15 have soft
centres and 5 have hard centres. Two chocolates are
taken at random, one after the other. Calculate the
probability that
a) both chocolates have soft centres
b) one of each sort of chocolates is taken
c) both chocolates have hard centres given that the 2 nd
chocolate has a hard centre
9. In a group of 100 people, 40 own a cat, 25 own a dog
and 15 own a cat and a dog. Find the probability that a
person chosen at random:
a) Owns a dog or a cat
b) Owns a dog or a cat but not both
c) Owns a dog given that he owns a cat
d) Does not own a cat, given that he owns a dog
10. A bag contains seven black and 3 white marbles. Three
marbles are chosen at random and in succession, each
marble being replaced after it has been taken out of the
bag. Calculate the probability of choosing:
a) three black marbles
b) a white marble, a black marble and a black marble in
that order
c) two white marbles and black marble in that order
d) at least one black marble.
11. Otim’s chances of passing physics are 0.60, of
chemistry 0.75 and of mathematics 0.80.
i) Determine the chance that he passes only one subject
ii) If it is known that he passed at least two subjects,
what is the probability that he failed chemistry?
12. I travel to work by route A or route B. The probability
that I use route A is 14 . Probability that I am late on
2
work if I go via route A is 3 and the corresponding
probability if I go via route B is 1
.
3
(a) What is the probability that I am late for work on
Monday?
(b) Given that I am late for work, what is the probability
that I went via route B?
13. In a group of 12 international referees there are three
from Africa, four from Asia and five from Europe. To
officiate at a tournament, three referees are chosen at
random from the group. Calculate the probability that
(a) a referee is chosen from each container,
(b) exactly two referees are chosen from Asia,
(c) the three referees are chosen from the same
continent.
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

Chapter Three
PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS (P.D.F)
Finding Probabilities
A function is said to be a P.d.f if its random variable, say
X takes on either specific values or values within a given This involves substituting directly the values of the
range. random variable into the function for a given domain
Types of pdf Note: If a is a value in the domain, then:
There are two types of P.d.fs i) P(X = a) = f(a)
- Discrete P.d.f ii) P(X ≥ a) = f(a) + . .... + f(upper limit)
- Continuous P.d.f iii) P(X > a) = f(a + 1) + .... + f(upper limit)
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DENSITY Examples
FUNCTIONS 1. A random variable X of a discrete p.d.f is given as
If a random variable takes on specific values of a P.d.f, kx, x  1, 2,3, 4,5
then such a variable is known as a discrete random f ( x)  
variable 0 otherwise
Properties of a discrete P.d.f Find:
i) the value of K
i)  f  x   P  X  x  1
all X all X
ii)
iii)
P(X = 2)
P(X > 2)
ii) P  X  x  0 iv) P(X ≤ 3)
v) P(1 < X ≤ 4
Note: We use the first property to find the unknown vi) P(X > 1/X ≤ 4)
constants Solution
Example
X 5
1. A random variable of discrete p.d.f is defined as
kx, x  1, 2,3, 4
(i)  f  x  1
X 1
f ( x)  
0 otherwise/Elsewhere  f(1) + f(2) + f(3) + f(4) + f(5) = 1
Find the value of k k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k = 1
Solution 15k = 1
This means f(x) = kx, for only X = 1, 2, 3, 4 1
Otherwise f(x) = 0, for example f(5) = f(6) = 0 k
15
X 4

 f  x  1 
 x, x  1, 2,3, 4,5
1
Now
Hence f ( x)   15
X 1

0 otherwise
 f(1) + f(2) + f(3) + f(4) = 1
2
k + 2k + 3k + 4k = 1 (ii) P(X = 2) = f(2) =
15
10k = 1
(iii) P(X > 2) = P(X = 3, 4, 5)
1
k = f(3) + f(4) + f(5)
10
3 4 5 12 4
2. A random variable X of a discrete p.d.f is defined as: =   = 
P(X = 0) = 0.1, P(X = 1) = P(X = 2) = a, 15 15 15 15 5
P(X = 3) = 0.2 and P(X = 4) = 0.3 (iv) P(X ≤ 3) = P(X = 1, 2, 3)
Find the value of a = f(1) + f(2) + f(3)
Solution 1 2 3 6 2
X 4
=   = 
 P  X  x  1
15 15 15 15 5
(v) P(1 < X ≤ 4) = P(X = 2, 3, 4)
X 0
= f(2) + f(3) + f(4)
 P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)
2 3 4 9 3
+ P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) = 1 =   = 
0.1 + a + a + 0.2 + 0.3 = 1 15 15 15 15 5
2a + 0.6 = 1 P( X  1  X  4)
(vi) P(X > 1/X ≤ 4) 
2a = 0.4 P( X  4)
a = 0.2 P ( X  2,3, 4)

P ( X  1, 2,3, 4)
2  153  15
4
9 15 9
 15
  
1
15
 2
15
 3
15
 4
15
15 10 10
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

2. Two tetrahedral dice are each with faces labelled 1, 2, 3 Examples

and 4 are thrown and the sum of the scores on the upper
shown faces noted. Find the probability distribution 1. Given the following probability distribution function;
function of X, where X is a random variable representing X 1 2 3 4
1 2 2 1
P(X = x) 6 6 6 6
the sum of the scores.
Determine the cumulative mass function
Solution
Solution
Probability space for possible outcomes X 1 2 3 4
1 2 2 1
P(X = x) 6 6 6 6
first die F(X) 1
6
3
6
5
6
6
6

1 2 3 4 1
Note: F(1) = P(X ≤ 1) =
second die

1 2 3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5 6 3
F(2) = P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) =
3 4 5 6 7 6
5
4 5 6 7 8 F(3) = P(X ≤ 3) =
6
Probability distribution function 6
F(4) = P(X ≤ 4) = =1
X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6
1 2 3 4 3 2 1
P(X = x) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 2. The discrete random variable X has cumulative mass
x
However, if the question required us to find the probability function F(x) = , for X = 1, 2, 3, …., 6
density function of X, then the following would be noted: 6
The pattern for the probabilities relating to X from 2 to 5: Find: (i) P(X ≤ 3)
X 1 (ii) the probability distribution of X
f(x) = P(X = x) = , for X = 2, 3, 4, 5 Solution
16
3 1
For 2 to 6, the pattern changes to: (i) P(X ≤ 3) = F(3)  
9 x 6 2
f(x) = P(X = x) = , for X = 6, 7, 8 1
16 (ii) P(X = 1) = F(1) =
Hence the p.d.f becomes; 6
 x161 , x  2,3, 4,5 P(X = 2) = F(2) – F(1)
 2 1 1
x
f ( x)   916 , x  6, 7,8   
6 6 6

0 otherwise P(X = 3) = F(3) – F(2)   
3 2 1
6 6 6
3. The probability density function of a random variable Y
4 3 1
is given by P(X = 4) = F(4) – F(3)   
P(Y = y) = cy2; for y = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 6 6 6
Find: (i) value of the constant, c 5 4 1
P(X = 5) = F(5) – F(4)   
(ii) P(Y ≥ 2) 6 6 6
Solution 6 5 1
P(X = 6) = F(6) – F(5)   
(i) P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2) + P(Y = 3) 6 6 6
+ P(Y = 4) = 1 Hence the distribution of X is:
c + 4c + 9c + 16c = 1 X 1 2 3 4 5 6
30c = 1 P(X = x) 1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6

1
c Finding Parameters
30
P(Y ≥ 2) = P(Y = 2) + P(Y = 3) + P(Y = 4)
4 9 16 29 a) Mean or Expected Value
   
30 30 30 30 The expected value of X denoted by E(X) or  is defined

as: E ( X )   xP( X  x )
Cumulative Mass (Distribution) Function all x
The cumulative distribution function of f(x) denoted by b) Variance
F(X) is defined as: F(x) = P(X ≤ x) The variance of X denoted by var(X) is defined as:
Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
Properties of F(x)
Where E ( X 2 )   x 2 P ( X  x )
i) F(+∞) = 1 where +∞ is the upper limit of the all X
distribution
ii)The probabilities are non-decreasing
Properties of the mean
(i) E(a) = a; where a is a constant
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

(ii) E(aX) = aE(X) F(2) = 0.5

(iii) E(ax + b) = E(ax) + E(b) 1 – F(1) = 1 – 0.1
= aE (X) + b = 0.9 > 0.5
Properties of variance Taking median = 3;
(i) Var(a) = 0 F(3) = 0.8 > 0.5
(ii) Var(aX) = a2var(X)
1 – F(2) = 1 – 0.5= 0.5
(iii) Var(aX + b) = var(aX) + var(b)
= a2var(X) + 0 23
Hence median = = 2.5
= a2var(X) 2
Mode (v) Taking lower quartile = 2;
This is the value of the function associated with the F(2) = 0.5
highest probability 1 – F(1) = 1 – 0 = 0.9 > 0.75
Hence q1 = 2
Median Taking upper quartile = 3;
This is the smallest value of X for which F(X) ≥ 0.5 F(3) = 0.8 > 0.75
If M is the median, then M must satisfy the following 1 – F(2) = 1 – 0.5
conditions = 0.5 > 0.25
(i) F(M) ≥ 0.5 Hence q3 = 3
(ii) 1 – F(M –1) ≥ 0.5 Interquartile range = 3 – 2 = 1
2. Given the following probability distribution;
Note: If there exists X1, such that F(X1) = 0.5, then there
x 0 1 2 3 4
will be two values of X i.e. X1 and X2 will satisfy the
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
X  X2
two conditions and hence median = 1
2
Find (i) E(X) and E(6X + 2)
Quartiles (ii) Var(X) and Var(6X + 2)
The lower quartile is the value of X which satisfies the (iii) mode
following conditions: (iv) median
(i) F(q1) ≥ 0.25 (v) semi-interquartile range
(ii) 1 – F(q1 – 1) ≥ 0.75
The upper quartile is the value of X which satisfies the Solution
following conditions x 0 1 2 3 4
(i) F(q3) ≥ 0.75 P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
(ii) 1 – F(q3 – 1) ≥ 0.25
xP(X = x) 0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.8
Interquartile range = Upper quartile – lower quartile
= q3 – q1 x2P(X = x) 0 0.2 1.2 1.8 3.2
Examples F(X) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0
1. Given the probability distribution of X below:
X 1 2 3 4 (i) E(X) =  xP(X = x)
P(X = x) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 = 0.2 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.8 = 2.2
Find: (i) E(X) E(6X + 2) = E(6X) + E(2)
(ii) var(X) = 6E(X) + 2
(iii) mode = 6 × 2.2 + 2 = 15.2
(iv) median (ii) Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
(v) interquartile range E(X2) = 0.2 + 1.2 + 1.8 + 3.2 = 6.4
Solution Var(X) = 6.4 – (2.2)2 = 1.56
X 1 2 3 4 Var(6X + 2) = Var(6X) + Var(2)
P(X = x) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 = 36var(X) + 0
xP(X = x) 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 = 36 ×1.56 = 56.16
x2P(X = x) 0.1 1.6 2.7 3.2 (iii) Mode = 2
F(X) 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0 (iv) Taking median = 2
(i) E(X) =  xP(X = x) F(2) = 0.6 > 0.5
= 0.1 + 0.8 + 0.9 + 0.8 = 2.6 1 – F(1) = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7 > 0.5
(ii) Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2 Taking median = 3;
E(X2) = 0.1 + 1.6 + 2.7 + 3.2 = 7.6
F(3) = 0.8 > 0.5
Var(X) = 7.6 – (2.6)2 1 – F(2) = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4 < 0.5
= 7.6 – 6.76= 0.84 Hence median = 2
(iii) Mode = 2 (Since it satisfies the two conditions above)
(v) Taking lower = quartile, q1 = 1;
F(1) = 0.3 > 0.25
(iv) Taking median = 2
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

1 – F(0) = 1 – 0.1
= 0.9 > 0.75
Hence lower quartile = 1 Graph of f(x)
Taking upper quartile, q3 = 3;
0.4
F(3) = 0.8 > 0.75;
1 – F(2) = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4 > 0.25

P(X = x)
0.3
Hence upper quartile = 3
Interquartile range = 3 – 1 = 2
0.2
2
Semi-interquartile range =  1
2 0.1
Graphs of f(x) and F(x)
0 X
Graphs of f(x) 1 2 3 4 5
This comprises of vertical lines drawn from specific Graph of F(x)
values of x corresponding to their respective probabilities F(X)
f(x) 1.0
f(X4)
0.8
f(X3)
0.5

f(X2)
0.3
f(X1)
0.1

X1 X2 X3 X4 X 0
1 2 3 4 5 X
Note: If a graph of a discrete p.d.f is symmetrical about a
Graph of F(x)
specific value of X, then the expectation of X, E(X) is
This comprises of horizontal lines drawn from specific
equal to the value of X
values of X towards the next values corresponding to their
respective cumulated probabilities 2. A random variable X of a probability distribution
F(x function is given as:
F(X4) x 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
F(X3)
Draw the graph of the distribution and hence find E(X)
Solution
F(X2)
0.4
F(X1)
P(X = x)

0.3
X1 X2 X3 X4 X
Examples 0.2
1. Given probability distribution function of X;
0.1
P(X = 1) = 0.1, P(X = 2) = P(X = 3) = 0.2, P(X = 4) = 0.3
and P(X = 5) = 0.2. 0
1 2 3 4 5 x
a) Show that the distribution given is a discrete .d.f
b) Sketch the graph of f(X) and F(X) The graph is symmetrical about x = 3,
Hence E(X) = 3.
Solution
a) Conditions for a discrete p.d.f: GENERAL EXAMPLES
(i)  P(X = x) = 1 1. A news agent stocks 12 copies of a magazine each
Now P(X = 1)+P(X = 2)+P(X = 3)+P(X = 4)+P(X = 5) week. He has regular orders for nine copies, and the
number of additional copies sold varies from week to
= 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.2 = 1.0 week. The news agent uses previous sales data to estimate
(ii) P(X = x)  0 for all values of X, the probability for each possible total number of copies
Now for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, P(X = x) > 0 solid, as follows:
Hence the distribution is a discrete p.d.f
b) Number of copies 9 10 11 12
x 1 2 3 4 5 Probability 0.20 0.35 0.30 0.15
P(X=x) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 a) Calculate the expected number of copies that he sells in a
F(x) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 week
 Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

b) The news agent buys the magazines at 1500/- each and X 0 1 2 3

sells them at 2000/- each. Any copies left unsold are P(X = x) a 0.5 – a 0.4 0.1
destroyed.
xP(X = x) 0 0.5 – a 0.8 0.3
i) Find the profit on these magazines in a week when he
sells 10 copies E(X) = ∑xP(X = x)
ii) Construct a probability distribution table for the news 1.4 = 0.5 – a + 0.8 + 0.3
agent’s weekly profit from the sale of these magazines.
1.4 = 1.6 – a
Hence or otherwise, calculate the expected weekly profit
a = 0.2
Solution Hence P(X = 0) = 0.2
a) Let X = number of copies the news agent sells per week (b) P(X = 1) = 0.5 – 0.2 = 0.3
x 9 10 11 12
P(X = x) 0.20 0.35 0.30 0.15 3. The following table shows the probability distribution
xP(X = x) 1.80 3.50 3.30 1.80 for a random variable X
E(X) = ∑xP(X = x)
x 0 1 2 3
= 1.80 + 3.50 + 3.30 + 1.80 = 10.4 2 2 2
Hence the expected number of copies sold per week is P(X = x) c c c +c 3c + 2c
10.4 Calculate (a) the value of c
(b) E(X)
b) (i) Profits for 10 copies = total sales – cost of sales
= 10 × 2000 – 12 × 1500 Solution
= 20,000 – 18,000
= 2000/-
a)  P( X  x)  1
all X
Hence the profit on 10 copies is 5000/-  c + c2 + c2 + c + 3c2 + 2c = 1
(ii) Profits for 9 copies = 9 × 2000 – 12 × 1500
= 18000 – 18000 = 0/- 5c2 + 4c – 1 = 0
Profits for 11 copies = 11 × 2000 – 12 × 1500 5c2 + 5c – c – 1 = 0
= 22,000 – 18,000 5c(c + 1) – 1(c + 1) = 0
= 4000/- (5c – 1)(c + 1) = 0
Profits for 12 copies = 12 × 2000 – 12 × 1500 5c – 1 = 0
= 24,000 – 18,000
1
= 6000 c  = 0.2
Let Y = weekly profit, 5
Then the probability distribution of Y will be: X 0 1 2 3
y 0 2000 4000 6000 P(X = x) 1 5 1 25 1  1  6
25 5
3
25 25
 52  13
25
P(Y = y) 0.20 0.35 0.30 0.15
y(Y = y) 0 700 1200 900 xP(X = x) 0 1
25
12
25
39
25
E(Y) = 0 + 700 + 1200 + 900
= 2,800/- E(X) = ∑xP(X = x)
Hence the expected weekly profit is 2800/- 1 12 39 52
     2.08
2. The discrete random variable X can take on values 0, 1, 25 25 25 25
2 and 3 only. Given P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9, 4. The discrete random variable X has a probability
P(X ≤ 1) = 0.5 and E(X) = 1.4, find: distribution function P(X = x) = k|x|, where x takes the
a) P(X = 0) b) P(X = 1) values -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3. Find the:
Solution a) value of the constant k
(a) Note: P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) b) E(X)
 0.9 = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2).............. (i) c) standard deviation of X
Solution
Also P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) x -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
 0.5 = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)................................ (ii) P(X=x) 3k 2k k 0 k 2k 3k

Substituting Eqn (ii) into Eqn (i);  P( X  x)  1

all X
0.9 = 0.5 + P(X = 2)
P(X = 2) = 0.4 3k + 2k + k + k + 2k + 3k = 1
x 3 12k= 1
But  P( X  x)  1
x 0 k
1
12
 P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = 1
b) E(X)
0.9 + P(X = 3) = 1
P(X = 3) = 0.1 x -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
P(X=x) 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
Let P(X = 0) = a, then from Eqn (i); 12 12 12 12 12 12
P(X = 1) = 0.5 – a xP(X=x) 9 4 1 0 1 4 9
12 12 12 12 12 12
x2P(X=x) 27 8 1 0 1 8 27
12 12 12 12 12 12
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

E(X) = ∑xP(X = x) Graph of f(x)

9 4 1 1 4 9
      0
12 12 12 12 12 12 f(x)
c) Standard deviation = var( X )

 E ( X 2 )  [ E ( X )]2
E(X2) = ∑x2P(X = x)
27 8 1 8 27 72
      6
12 12 12 12 12 12 0
1 2 3 4 x
Standard deviation = 60
Graph of F(x)
 6  2.449
5. A random variable X of a pdf is given by: F(x)
kx, x  1, 2,3,...n
f  x  
0, else where
Given that E(X) = 3,
a) find the value of constants K and n
b) sketch the graph of f(X) and F(X)

Solution
a)  P( X  x)  1
all X
0
1 2 3 4 5 x
6. A random variable X takes on integral values within the
 f(1) + f(2) + f(3) + ....... + f(n) = 1
given range of the function:
k[1 + 2 + 3 + .... + n] = 1

a 2 x , 0  x  6
k  n2  n  1   1 f  x  

0, else where
kn(n + 1) = 2 ...................................... (i)
Find: (i) the value of a (ii) E(X)
E(X) =  xf ( x)
all X
(iii) P(X < 4/X ≥ 2)
Solution
k x 2
Note: When X takes on integral values, this means that the
all X distribution is a discrete one.
= k(12 + 22 + 32 + ...... + n2) x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
x
But E(X) = 3 f(x) = a2 a 2a 4a 8a 16a 32a 64a
 k(12 + 22 + 32 + ...... + n2) = 3
 f ( x)  1
k  n6  n  1 2n  1   3 all X

 a + 2a + 4a + 8a + 16a + 32a + 64a = 1

Kn(n + 1)(2n + 1) = 18 ...................... (ii)
127a = 1
Eqn (ii) ÷ Eqn (i);
1
a
kn(n  1)(2n  1) 18 127

kn(n  1) 2 ii) E(X) =  xf ( x)
all X
2n + 1 = 9
n=4 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 4 8 16 32 64
Substituting for n into Eqn (i); f(x) 127 127 127 127 127 127 127
4k(4 + 1) = 2 0 2 8 24 64 160 384
10k = 1 xf(x) 127 127 127 127 127 127

1 2 8 24 64 160 384
k E( X )      
10 127 127 127 127 127 127
b) 642
  5.055
x 1 2 3 4 127
f(X) 1 2 3 4 P( X  4  X  2)
10 10 10 10 (iii) P(X < 4/X ≥ 2) 
P( X  2)
F(X) 1 3 6 10
10 10 10 10
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

P( X  2,3)
 F(x)
P( X  2,3, 4,5, 6)
4  127
8
 127
4
127
 127
8
 127
16
 127
32
 127
64

12 127 12 3
   
127 124 124 31
7. A bag contains 6 red sweets and 4 yellow sweets.
0 X
Two sweets are to be picked at random in 1 2
succession from the bag without replacement. 7. The random variable X has the distribution shown in
(a) (i) Write down the possible sets of colours of the table below
sweets that will be picked from the bag
(ii) Determine the probability of picking each
set of the sweets in (i) above. x -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
(b) If X denotes the number of red sweets picked in P(X=x) 1 1 m 3 6 2 3 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20
(i) above, construct a probability distribution
function of X. Find the:,
(c) (i) Determine the cumulative distribution (i) value of m
function F(x), of X (ii) probability distribution of Y, where
(ii) Plot the graph of F(x). Y = 2X – 3,
Solution (iii) expectation of Y .
(a) (i)
Red = 6 Solution
Yellow = 4 (i)  P( X  x)  1
allx
Total = 10
Let R1 = first sweet drawn is red
1
20
 201  m  203  206  202  203  201  1
R2 = second sweet drawn is red 17
20
 m 1
W1 = first sweet drawn is yellow
m 20
20
 17
20
W2 = second sweet drawn is yellow
m 3
20
R2 R1 R2
(ii) Y= 2x – 3
y -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
R1 P(Y= y) 1 1 3 2 6 2 3 1
Y2 R1 Y2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

R2 (iii)
Y1 R2
y -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
Y1
P(Y= y) 1 1 3 2 6 2 3 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Y2 Y1 Y2 5 3 3
yP(Y= y) 20 20 20
3
20
18
20
10
20
21
20
9
20

S  R1 R2 , R1Y 2 , Y 1 R2 , YY
1 2

(ii) P( R1 R2 )  106 . 95  30  155 E(Y )   yP(Y  y)

90

P( R1Y2 )  106 . 94  90
24
 154  5 20  3 20  3 20  3 20  18 20  10 20  21 20  9 20
 11 20  61 20
P(Y1 R2 )  104 . 96  90
24
 154
 50 20  2.5
1 2)  .  
4 3 12 2
P(YY 10 9 90 15 OR
(b) E (Y )  E (2 X  3)
 E (2 X )  E (3)
x 0 1 2  2E ( X )  3
P(X = x) 2
5
8
15
5
15
x -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X= x) 1 1 3 2 6 2 3 1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
(c) (i)
xP(X= x) 1 0 3 6 18 8 15 6
20 20 20 20 20 20 20
x 0 1 2
P(X = x) 2 8 5
5 15 15
E ( X )  1 20  3 20  6 20  18 20  8 20  15 20  6 20
F(x)= P(X  x) 2 10 15
5 15 15
 55 20
(ii)
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

E (Y )  55
20
23 E (Z 2 )  36
4
 648  100
8
 144
8
 196
8
 110
20
3  916
 114.5
8
 5.5  3 Var ( Z )  114.5  (10.25) 2
 2.5  9.4375
8. The table below shows a random variable X with OR
the following probability distribution Var (Z )  Var (2 x  4)
x 1 2 3 4 5
= 4Var(x)
P(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1

But Var ( x)  E ( x 2 )   E ( x) 
4 8 8 4 4 2

(i) Construct tables for the W and Z, such

that W = 3x and Z = 2x + 4. E ( x 2 )  14  84  98  164  254
(ii) Find the expectation of W and Z.  978  12.125
(iii) Calculate the variance of Z.
Var ( x)  12.125  (3.125) 2
Solution  2.359375
(i) W = 3x  Var ( Z )  4  2.359375
w 3 6 9 12 15  9.4375
P(W = w) 1 1 1 1 1
Exercise 3.1
4 8 8 4 4

1. The discrete random variable X has the given

Z = 2x + 4 probability distribution
z 6 8 10 12 14 x 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 0.2 0.25 0.4 a 0.05
P(Z = z) 1 1 1 1 1
4 8 8 4 4 a) Find the value of a
(ii) b) Find: (i) P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3) (ii) P(X > 2)
w 3 6 9 12 15 (iii) P(2 < X < 5) (iv) mode
P(W = w) 1 1 1 1 1 2. A game consists of throwing tennis balls into a bucket
4 8 8 4 4
from a given distance. The probability that Peter will
wP(W = w) 3 6 9 12 15
get the tennis ball in the bucket is 0.4. A turn consists
4 8 8 4 4

z 6 8 10 12 14 of three attempts.
a) Construct the probability distribution for X, the
P(Z = z) 1 1 1 1 1
4 8 8 4 4 number of tennis balls that land in the bucket in a
zP(Z = z) 6 8 10 12 14 turn.
4 8 8 4 4

z2P(Z = z) 36 64 100 144 196

b) Peter wins a prize if at the end of his turn, there are
4 8 8 4 4
two or more tennis balls in the bucket. What is the
E (W )  3  6 8  9 8  12 4  15 4
4
probability that Peter doesn’t win a prize?
 75
8  9.375
E (Z )  6
4  8 8  10 8  12 4  14 4 3. A bag contains five black counters and six red
counters. Two counters are drawn one at a time and not
 82 8  10.25
replaced. By letting X be the number of red counters
Alternatively: drawn. Find E(X).
x 1 2 3 4 5 4. The discrete random variable X can take on values 0, 1,
P(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1 2 and 3 only. Given that P(X ≤ 2) = 0.9, P(X ≤ 1) = 0.5
4 8 8 4 4
and E(X) = 1.4. Find
xP(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1
a) P(X = 1)
4 8 8 4 4
b) P(X = 0)
x2P(X = x) 1 1 1 1 1
4 8 8 4 4 5. A random variable X of a p.d.f takes on only integral
E( X )  1
4  28  38  4 4  5 4 values whose function is given below
1 x
 25 8  3.125 2
, 1 x 5
E (W )  3E ( x ) f x c, x 6
 3  3.125 0, otherwise
 9.375
where c is a constant.
E ( Z )  E (2 x  4) Determine the value of c and hence the mode and
 2 E ( x )  E (4) mean of X
 2 E ( x)  4
6. (a) The discrete random variable X has p.d.f
 2  3.125  4 P(X = x) = k|x|, where x takes the values
 10.25 -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3.
Find: (i) the value of the constant k
Var (Z )  E(Z 2 )   E(Z )
2
(iii) (ii) E(X)
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

(iii) the standard deviation of X

(b) The discrete random variable X has distribution
function F(X) where
F(X) = 1 – (1 – 14 x)x for x = 1, 2, 3, 4
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DENSITY
63 3
FUNCTIONS
(i) Show that F (3)  and F (2) 
64 4 A function is said to be a continuous probability density
(ii) Obtain the probability distribution of X
function if its domain is continuous. For example f(x) = a
(iii) Find E(X) and Var(X)
(iv) Find P(X > E(X)) ≤ X ≤ b where X takes on any value within the given range
7. A discrete random variable X has a probability Note: For a continuous function,
function P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(a < X < b)

x , x  1, 2,3........, n Properties of a continuous p.d.f
P  X  x   k (i) f(x) ≥ 0 for all values of X

o otherwise x b 
Where k and n are real numbers.
Given that the expectation of X is 3, find
(ii)

x a
f ( x)dx  1 or  f ( x)dx  1

(a) the values of n and k Where a = lower limit (+  ) and
(b) the median and variance of X b = upper limit of the domain (-  )
(c) P  X  2 / X  2
8. The discrete random variable X has p.d.f We use the second property to find the constants
P(X = x) = k for x =1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Examples
Find (a) E(X), (b) E(X 2), 1. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given by:
(c) E(3X + 4), (d) Var(X). kx, 0 x6
f  x  
9. The discrete random variable X has probability  0, else where
Find the value of k
function given by Solution
 12  x x  1, 2,3, 4,5, 6

P  X  x   c x  6,  kx dx  1
o otherwise
0
 6

where c is a constant. 
k x dx  1
Determine the value of c and hence the mode and 0
mean of X.  x2 
6

k   1
10. A game consists of tossing four unbiased coins
simultaneously. The total score is calculated by  2  0
giving three points for each head and one point for  36 
each tail. The random variable X represents the total k   0  1
score. 2 
(a) Show that P(X = 8) = 3
. 18k  1
8
1
(b) Copy and complete the table, given below, for k
the symmetrical probability distribution of X. 18
x 4 6 8 10 12
2. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given by
P(X = x) 3
8
k ( x  1), 0  x  4

f  x   kx, 4 x6
(c) Calculate the variance of X. 0,
 else where
Find the value k
Solution
4 6

 
k ( x  1) dx  k x dx  1
0 4
4 6
x  2  x2 
k   x  k    1
 2  0  2  4
k  8  4    0    k 18  8  1
12k  10k  1
22k  1
1
k
22
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

4 2 4
Finding probabilities
  
1 1
( x) dx  x dx  (4  x) dx
This involves integrating the function given for given 4 4
0 0 2
limits of the probability 2
1 x
 1
2
x2 
Examples    4 x  

4  2
 0 4  2 
1. Given a continuous p.d.f as
1 1

 x, 0  x  6   4  0   8  6 
1
f  x    18 8 4

0, else where
4 2 8
Find: (i) P(X > 2)    1
8 4 8
(ii) P(X < 3) (ii) f(x) > 0,
(iii) P(1 < X < 3) Now for all values of x from x = 0 to x = 4,
(iv) P(X > 2/X ≤ 4)
f (xi) > 0 where i = 1, 2, 3, 4
Solution 1
1
4 0
6
(b) (i) P(X < 1) = x dx

1
(i) P(X > 2) = x dx
18 1
2
 x2  1
6   
1  x2  1 8  8 0 8
     36  4  
8  2  36 9 1
4

4 3
2
(ii) P(X > 3) = (4  x ) dx
3


1
(ii) P(X < 3) = x dx 4
18 1 x2 
0  
4  2  3
4 x
3
1  x2  1 1
    9  0  1 4
8 2  36 4  8 x  x 2 
0 8 3

3
1 1
 16  15 

1
(iii) P(1 < X < 3)  x dx 8 8
18
1 2 3
1 1
1x  2
1
3
8 2
(iii) P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3) =  x dx   (4  x ) dx
   9  1 
41 42
 
8 2  36 36 9 2 3
1 1  x2  1  x2 
P( X  2  X  4)     4 x  
(iv) P(X > 2/X ≤ 4) = 4  2 1 4  2 2
P( X  4)
1  1 1
4   2    7.5  6
2 2 4
1
18  x dx 1
36  2
4
 x2 
16  4 1 1
  1.5   1.5  0.75
 2
  2 4
4
1
4
 x2  16  0
1
18  x dx 36  0
(iv) P(X > 1/ X ≤ 3) 
P( X  1  X  3
0 P( X  3)
12 3
 P(1  X  3) 0.75
16 4  
1  P( X  3) 1  18
2. A continuous random variable has a p.d.f. given by
0 x2 0.75 0.75  8
 14 x  
1 7/8 7
f ( x)   4 (4  x) 2  x  4
0 6
Otherwise   0.857
 7
(a) Show that the distribution is a p.d.f
FINDING PARAMETERS
(b) Find:
i) P(X < 1) a) Mean or Expected value
ii)P(X > 3) The expected value of X denoted by E(X) or µ is defined
iii) P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3) as:

iv) P(X > 1/ X ≤ 3)
Solution
E( X )   xf ( x) dx

(a) For a continuous function to be a p.d.f, then:

Where –∞ = lower limit and +∞ upper limit
(i)  f ( x) dx  1

b) Variance
The variance of X denoted by Var(X) is defined as
Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

 Solution
Where E(X2) =
 x 2 f ( x) dx
 (i) E(X) = 
all X
x f ( x )dx
Note: Standard deviation = Var ( X )
4

c) Mode
 
0
1
8
x 2 dx
This is the value of X for which f(X) is greatest in the 4
1  x3  1 64 8
given range of X.
There are basically two approaches used for finding
    64  0  
8 3  24 24 3
0
the mode  2.6667 (4 d.p.)
(i) Using differential approach: With this approach, we
obtain the mode by differentiating the function given (ii) var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
and equate it to zero i.e. mode is the value of X for
which f '  x  
d
f  x  0
E( X 2 )  
all X
x 2 f ( x) dx
dx
If there are more than one value for which 4 4
1  x4 

64
f '(x) = 0, then a maximum value is confirmed for f  1
8
x dx    
3
8
8 4  8
''(x) < 0 0 0
2
8
(ii) Using the graphical approach. With this approach, Var( X )  8    = 0.88889
3
mode is the value of X corresponding to the highest
point of the curve/line (See graphical sketching in (iii) Mode is the value of X for which f '  x   0
the next section)
Given f ( x)  18 x ;
Note: if a function f(x) = ax for a given range, it is quite f ' x  1
8
difficult to obtain the mode by differentiating it as f
'(x) = a(constant), so in such a situation, the graphical Since f '  x   1
8
is a constant, therefore we cannot obtain
approach is more appropriate. the mode using this approach. So we use the graphical
approach.
Median f ( x)  18 x
This is the value of M for which either
M 
If x = 0, f(x) = 0

 
1 1 f(x) = 84  1
f ( x) dx  or f ( x) dx  If x = 4, 2
2 2
 M

Quartiles
The lower quartile is the value of q1 for which either
q1 
0 X
4
 
1 3
f ( x ) dx  or f ( x ) dx 
4 4 For the range of 0 ≤ x ≤ 4, the graph is maximum at
 q1
x = 4, hence mode = 4
The upper quartile is the value of q3 for which either (iv) Let median = m
q3 

 
3 1
f ( x ) dx  or f ( x ) dx  m
4 4

 1
q3 1
8
x dx 
The interquartile range = upper quartile – lower quartile 2
0
m
1  x2  1
Examples   
1. The continuous random variable X has p.d.f f(x) where 8 2  2
0


8
1
x, 0  x  4 m 2
1
f  x   0 
 2 2
0, else where
Find: (i) E(X) m2  8
(ii) Var(X) m  2.828 (3 d.p.)
(iii) mode (v) Interquartile range = q3 – q1
(iv) median For lower quartile q1, we have:
(v) interquartile range
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

q1 0 2

 
2 1

1
1
x dx   ( x 3  x 2 ) dx  (2 x 2  x 3 ) dx
8 3 3
4 1 0
0
0 2
2  x4 x3  1  2 x3 x4 
q1
1  x2  1        
   3 4 3 3 3 4 
8  2  4 1 0
0
2 1 1  1  16 16 
q12
 2  q1  2    0            0
2 3  4 3   3  3 4  
For upper quartile q3, we have 2 1 1 16
   
q3 3 12 3 12

3
1
x dx  2 16 14 7
8
4    
0 36 36 36 18
q3
1  x2  3 Var(X) =
7 1 5
 
   18 9 18
8  2  4
0
(iii) By sketching the graph of f(x)
q32
6 2
For –1 ≤ x ≤ 0, f(x) =  x  1 , which is a line
2 3
q32  12 If x = –1, f(x) = 0
q3  3.464 2
If x = 0, f ( x) 
Interquartile range = 3.464 – 2 = 1.464 3
2. A random variable X has probability density function 1
given by: For 0 ≤ x ≤ 2, f ( x)   2  x  which is also a line
3
 23 ( x  1),  1  x  0
 2
 If x= 0, f(x) =
f  x    13 (2  x), 0  x  2 3
 If x = 2, f(x) = 0
 0, otherwise

Find: (i) E(X) (ii) var(X) f(x)
(iii) mode (iv) median
(v) semi-interquartile range

Solution
E( X )   xf ( x)dx
x
all x -1 0 1 2
The graph is maximum at x = 0. Hence mode = 0
0 2
(iv) Note: If there is more than one interval, we must test
 x( x  1) dx  3  x(2  x) dx
2 1

3 for the appropriate interval where the median lies
1 0
0 2
Now if the median lies in the first interval of

 (x 
2 1 0
 2
 x) dx  (2 x  x 2 ) dx 2
3
1
3
0
(-1 ≤ x ≤ 0), then  3  x  1 dx  0.5
1
0 2
2  x3 x 2  1  2 x 2 
0
2  x2 
0
2
     x     x  1 dx  0.5    x 
3  3 2  3  3  3 1 3 2  1
1 0
2 
 0     1 
1

2  1 1   1  8  3   2 
   0         4    0  2 1 1
3  3 2   3  3    
2 1 1 4 3 2 3
   1 1
3 6 3 3 But 
1 4 3 1 3 2
    Hence the median lies in the next interval of 0 < x < 2
9 9 9 3
Let m = median
(ii) Var(X) = E (X2) –[E(X)]2
E( X 2 )  
all X
x 2 f ( X )dx

0 2

 
2 1 2
 x 2 ( x  1) dx  x (2  x ) dx
3 3
1 0
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

1 q32  5
0 m
1 1
  f ( x) dx   3  2  x  dx  2
1 0
 2q3 
3

2  12
m
1 1 x2  1 q32 5
2q3  
 2 x   
3 3 2 0 2 2 4
Multiplying through by 4;
1 m2  1
 2 m   2q32  8q3  5  0
3 2  6
8  64  40
Multiplying through by 6; q3 
4m – m2 = 1 4
m2 – 4m + 1 = 0 8  24
q3 
4
b  b2  4ac
m 8  24
2a Either q3   3.2247
4  16  4 4
m
2 8  24
Or q3   0.7753
4  12 4
m Since 0.7753 lies in the interval 0 < x < 2,
2
hence q3 = 0.7753
4  12
Either m   3.732 0.7753   0.1464
2 semi-interquartile range   0.46085
2
4  12
Or m   0.2679
2 3. A random variable X of a pdf is given by
Since median lies in the interval 0 < x < 2,  3 (2  x)(4  x) 0 x4
f ( x)   80
then median = 0.2679
0, otherwise
1 1
(iv) Since > , hence lower quartile lies in the first Find the mode
3 4
interval
Solution
Let q1 = lower quartile
f ( x )   2  x  4  x   8  2 x  x 2 
3 3
q
2 1
 x  1dx 
3 1
80 80
4 Mode is the value of x for which f '( x) = 0
q
2  x2  3
  x 
1 Now f '( x )  2  2x 
3 2  1 4 80
For f '( x)  0
2   q12   1  1
  q1     1   3
3  2   2  4 2  2x   0
80
2  q12 1 1 2 – 2x = 0
  q1   
3 2 2 4 x=1
1 3 Hence mode = 1
q12  q1  
2 8 Note: To confirm that the mode exists, we find f ''( x) and
1 see whether its value is less than zero
q12  q1   0
8
8q12  8q1  1  0 3
f '( x )  2  2x 
8  64  32 80
q1  6
16 f ''( x )  
80
8  32
q1   0.1464 Since f ''( x)  0 for all values of x, this indicates that
16
there is a maximum point at x = 1
Let q3 = upper quartile
q
1 1 3 3 4. A random variable X of a p.d.f is given by
   2  x dx 
3 30 4 Ax(6 x) 2 , 0 x 6
f ( x)
q3 0, else where
1 x2  3
 2x   
3 2 0 4 a) Find the value of A
b) Calculate the mean
1 q2 3 1
 2 q3  3    c) Calculate the mode
3 2  4 3 Solution
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

a) f ( x)dx 1 5. The mass X kg of a particular product produced per

all X hour in a certain factory is modelled by a continuous
6 random variable with probability density function given
Ax(6 x)2 dx 1 by:
0
 3 x2 , 0 x2
6 
3
32
A 36 x 12 x 2 x 3 dx 1 f  x    32 (6  x), 2  x  6
0 
 0, else where
1 4
4

A 18 x 2 4 x3 x 1 a) If the product is sold at Ush. 2000 per kg and the
4 0
running costs amount to Ush. 800/- per hour, taking
108 A 1 Y as the profit made in each hour, express Y in terms
1 of X
A
108 b) Find the expected value of Y
Solution
b) E(X) = xf ( x)dx
a) Total sales per hour = 2000X
all X
Running costs per hour = 800
6
1 Profits = 2000X – 800
x 2 (6 x) 2 dx
108 0
Hence Y = 2000X – 800
6
1
(36 x 2 12 x 3 x 4 ) dx b) E(Y) = E(2000X – 800)
108 0 = E(2000X) – E(800) = 2000E(X) –800
6 2 6
1 x5
12 x 3 Now E ( X )   x dx   (6 x  x 2 )dx
4 3 3 3
3x 32 32
108 5 0
0 2
259.2 2 6
2.4  x4   2 x3  23
108  3
32    32 3x   
3

c) Mode is the value of x for which f '(x) = 0  4 0  3

2
8
1 23
f ( x) 36 x 24 x 2 x 3 E (Y )  2000   800
108 8
f '( x)
1
36 48 x 3 x 2 = 5750 – 800 = 4950
108 Hence the expected profit is USh 4950
For f '(x) = 0;
1 The cumulative distribution function, F(x)
36 48 x 3x 2 0
108 As for discrete probability density function, the cumulative
36  48x + 3x2 = 0 distribution function of a continuous function is denoted
x2  8x + 12 = 0 by F(x)
(x  6)(x  2) = 0
Either x  6 = 0
Properties of F(x)
(i) None decreasing function
x=6
(ii) F( ) = 0
Or x2=0 (iii) F(+ ) = 1
x=2
Since these two values of x lie in the required range, we Steps taken for finding F(x)
find f ''( x) and substitute for these two values. (i) Consider interval by interval
(ii) For every interval, integrate the function given from
3 lower limit to some specified value x with respect to a
Now f '( x) x2 8 x 12
108 dummy variable
3 (iii) Substitute for the upper limit to be carried forward to
f ''( x) 2x 8 the next interval
108
(iv) Continue this process until you find F(+ )
Substituting for x = 6
3 12 Examples
f ''(6) 4 0 , but for mode to be, f ''( x) < 0,
108 108 1. A random variable X of a continuous pdf is given by
hence x = 6 is not the mode 1
x, 0 x 4
8
Substituting for x = 2; f x
0, elsewhere
3 12
f ''(2) 4 8 0 Find F(x)
108 108
Solution
Hence mode = 2
For x < 0, F(x) = 0
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F
x x

For 0  x  4, F ( x ) 1
t dt 2 t2
8 2t
0 3 3 2

2 x 2 2 x 2
4
t x 2x 4
16 16 3 3 3
0

16 2 x 8
F(4) = 1 2x
16 3 3 3
For x > 4, F(x) = 1 x2
2x 2
0, x 0 3
Hence F x x 2
, 0 x 4 F(3) = 3 + 6  2 = 1
16
For x > 3, F(x) = 1
1, x>4
0, x 0
Note: when F(x) is given, we obtain f(x) with respect to x x2
6
0 x 2
d F x
by differentiation. I.e. f ( x) F ( x) x2
2 x 3, 2 x 3
dx 3

For example given; 1, x 3

0, x 0 Finding f(x) given F(x) above,
F x x 2
, 0 x 4 d
16 f ( x) F ( x)
1, x>4 dx
For x < 0, f(x) = 0
Find f(x)
d x2 2x x
For 0  x  2, f ( x )
dx 6 6 3
Solution
d d x2 2x
For x < 0, f ( x) 0 0 For 2 < x  3, f ( x ) 2x 3 2
dx dx 3 3
d x2 2x x d
For 0  x  4, f ( x) For x > 3, f ( x ) 1 0
dx 16 16 8 dx
x
d 3
, 0 x 2
For x > 4, f ( x) 1 0 2x
dx Hence f x 3
2, 2 x 3
x
8
, 0 x 4 0, otherwise
Hence f x
0, elsewhere 3. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given
2. X is a continuous random variable with a pdf f(x) given by
2
by: 12
( x 1), 0 x 1
x 2
3
, 0 x 2 12
, 2 x 3
2x
f x 2x
f x 3
2, 2< x 3 12
, 3 x 4
0, otherwise 0, otherwise
Find F(x) Find F(x)
Solution Solution
For x < 0, F(0) = 0 For x < 0, F(x) = 0
x x
x
t2 x2 2
For 0  x  2, F(x) = t
dt For 0  x  1, F(x) = (t 1)dt
3
6 6 12 0
2 0
x
4 2 2 t2 2 t2
F(2) = t x
6 3 12 2 0
12 2
x
2 2 1 3
For 2 < x  3, F ( x ) ( 2t
3 2)dt F(1) = 1
3 2
12 2 12
x
3 3
For 1 < x < 2, F ( x) 0 dx
12 1
12
x
3 2
For 2  x  3, F ( x) dt
12 12 2
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

3 2 x 3 2 Find: (a) P(X  2)

t x 2
12 12 2
12 12 (b) P(1  X  3)
2 1 (c) median
x (d) interquartile range
12 12
(e) the value of a such that P(X > a) = 0.4
6 1 5 Solution
F(3) =
12 12 12 (a) P(X  2) = P(0  X  2)
x
5 2 F (2) F (0)
For 3 < x  4, F ( x) ddt
19 19 3 22 4 1
x
5 2 16 16 4
F ( x) ddt
12 12 (b) P(1  X  3) = F(3)  F(1)
3
x 32 12 9 1 1
5 2 t2 5 2 x2 9
16 16 16 16 2
12 12 12 12 12 2 2
3 (c) Let m = median
x2 4 m2 1
12 12 m2 8
16 2
14 4 m 2.828
F (4) 1
12 (d) Let q1 and q3 be the lower and upper quartile
For x > 4, F(x) = 1 respectively
0 x 0 q12 1
1
12
( x2 2 x), 0 x 4 16 4
1
, 1 x 2 q1 2
4
F x
1
(x 2
4), 2 x 3 q32 3
12
1
(2 x 1), 3 x 4 16 4
12
q32 12
1, x 4
q3 12 3.464
Finding probabilities, median and
Interquartile range = 3.464  2 = 1.464
quartiles given F(x)
a) Finding probabilities (e) P(X > a) = P(a < X  4)
F(4)  F(a)
(i) P(x  x1) = F(x1) F (4) F (a) 0.4
(ii) P(x1 < x < x2) = F(x2)  F(x1)
a2 a2
0.4
b) Finding the median 16 16
After carrying out a test for the interval where the a2
1 0.4
median lies, then the median, m is obtained from 16
1 a2
F (m) 0.6
2 16
Note: We substitute m directly into the function whose a 3.098
interval gives a value which is at least 0.5 2. The random variable X has cumulative distribution
c) Finding quartiles function
Like for median, the interval over which the lower and 0 x 0
upper quartiles lie must be established first and then the x2
lower quartiles q1 is obtained from; , 0 x 2
F x 6
1 x2
2x 2, 2 x 3
E (q1 ) 3
4
1 x 3
And the upper quartile, q3 is obtained from
3 Determine (i) P(1  X  3)
F (q3 ) (ii) P(X > 1/X < 2.5)
4
(iii) median
Examples
(iv) interquartile range
1. Given the following distribution
Solution
0 x 0
(i) P(1  X  3) = F(3)  F(1)
2
x 9 1 1 5
F x , 0 x 4 6 2 1
16 3 6 6 6
1, x 4
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

P( X 1 X 2.5) Note: Steps used in sketching curves in Pure Mathematics

(ii) P(X > 1/X < 2.5) =
P( X 2.5) are not very necessary in Paper II mathematics

P(1 X 2.5)
Importance of graphs of f(x)
P( X 2.5)
1. We use the curve drawn to find the probability between
F (2.5) F (1) limits; say P(X1  X  X2) by finding the area under the
F (2.5) curve between X1 and X2
6.25
5 2 ( 16 ) 2. If the graph drawn is symmetrical, say about X = X1,
3 45 9
6.25
then the mean is X1
3 5 2 55 11 3. We use these graphs to find the mode of the
(iii) Testing for the interval where median lies: distribution at the highest(maximum) point of the
graph
22 4
For 0  X  2, F (2) 0.6667 0.5 4. We use graphs to find the constants by equating the
6 6 area under the graph to one
Hence median lies in the interval 0  X  2
Let m = median Examples
m2 1 1. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given by:
6 2 x
, 0 x 4
m 1.732 f x 8
(iv) Testing for the interval where the lower quartile lies 0, otherwise
Since 0.6667 > 0.25, hence the lower quartile lies in Sketch the graph of f(x) and use it to find:
the interval 0  X  2 (i) P(X  1)
Let q1 = lower quartile (ii) P(1  X  2)
q12 1 Solution
1
6 4 f ( x) 8
x
q1 1.2247 If x = 0, f(x) = 0
Testing for the interval where the upper quartile lies: If x = 4, f(x) = 4 1
8 2

Since 0.6667 < 0.75, hence the upper quartile lies in the
Graph of f(x)
interval 2 < X  3
Let q3 = upper quartile f(x)
q12 3
2q3 2
3 4
Multiplying through by 12;
24 576 528 24 48
q3
8 8
24 48
Either q3 3.866
8
0 1 2 3 4 x
24 48
Or q3 2.134 (i) P(X  1) = Area under the graph between x = 0 and
8
Since q3 lies in the interval 2  X  3; x=2
Hence q3 = 2.134 1 1 1
1
Interquartile range = 2.134  1.2247 = 0.9093 2 8 16
(ii) P (1  X  2) = Area under the graph between x = 1 and
Graphs of f(x) and F(x) x=2
Unlike for discrete pdf, the graph of f(x) and F(x) for 1 1 2 1 3 3
1
continuous pdf are sketched in the same way. 2 8 8 2 8 16
2. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given by:
Steps taken:
kx, 0 x2
i) If for a given interval, f(x) or F(x) is a line, then: 
(a) Find the starting and ending points of the line f  x   k (4  x), 2  x  4
0,
(b) Join the points with a straight line  otherwise
Sketch the graph of the f(x) and use it to determine the:
ii) If for a given interval, f(x) or F(x) is a curve, then:
(i) value of the constant k
(a) Find the starting and ending points of the
curve (ii) P(1  x  3)
(b) Join the points with a curve but not a line (iii) E(X)
(iv) mode
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

Solution 1
For 0  x  5, f(x) = which is a horizontal line parallel
For 0  x  2, f(x) = kx; 3
If x = 0, f(x) = 0 to the x axis
If x = 2, f(x) = 2k

For 2  X  4, f(x) = k(4  x) f(x)

If x = 2, f(x) = 2k
If x= 4, f(x) = 0

Graph of f(x)
f(x)
2k

f(x) = kx 0 3 5 x
f(x) = k(4 x)
Exercise 3.2
1. The continuous random variable X has p.d.f f(x)
where f(x) = k(4 – x), 1 ≤ x ≤ 3
0 1 2 3 4x (a) Find the value of the constant k
(i) Area under the graph = 1 (b) Sketch y = f(x)
1
4 2k 1 k 1 (c) Find P(1.2 ≤ X ≤ 2.4)
2 4
2. A continuous random variable X has p.d.f f(x) where:
(ii) kx, 0  x 1
f(x)

f ( x)  k (2  x), 1  x  2
0,
 Otherwise
Find (a) the value of the constant k
(b) E(X) (iii) var(X)
(c) P( 34 ≤ X ≤ 1½)
(d) the mode

3. (a) The continuous random variable X has continuous

0 1 2 3 4 p.d.f f(x), where
P(1  X  3) = Area under the graph between x = 1 1  x
 , 1 x  3
and x = 3 f ( x)   6

0, otherwise
1 1 2 1 2 3
1 2 0.75 (i) Sketch the graph of f(x)
2 4 4 4 4 4
(ii) Calculate the E(X)
(iii) Since the graph of f(x) is symmetrical about the line x (iii) Obtain the cumulative distribution function F(x)
= 2, hence E(X) = 2 1
(iv) The graph has got the highest point at x = 2. Hence (iv) Find m such that P(X ≤ m) =
2
mode = 2 4. (a) The continuous random variable X has cumulative
3. A random variable X of a continuous p.d.f is given distribution function F(x) where
as 0, x0
x2  2x
, 0 x 3 3, 0  x 1
27 F ( x)   x
 3  k, 1 x  2
1 1,
f x , 3 x 5  x2
3
Find the: (a) value of k
0, otherwise
(b) p.d.f f(x) and sketch it
(c) mean
Sketch the graph of f(x) (d) standard deviation
Solution
x2 5. A continuous random variable X takes values in the
For 0  x  3, f(x) = , which is a curve; interval 0 to 3.
27
It is given that P(X > x) = a + bx3, 0 ≤ x ≤ 3
When x = 0, f(x) = 0
(a) Find the values of the constants a and b
9 1 (b) Find the cumulative distribution function
If x = 3, f(x) = =
27 3 F(x)
(c) Find the probability density function f(x)
(d) Show that E(X) = 2.25
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

0 x  1
6. The continuous random variable X has p.d.f. given by 1  x
f(x) where  1  x  0
 8
kx 2 0 x3 1  3x
 F  x   0 x2
f  x   k 3 x5
0  8
 otherwise 5  x
 8 2 x3

Find
1 x3
(a) the value of k.
(b) E(X) (a) Sketch the graph of the probability density
(c) E(X2) function f(x).
(d) the standard deviation of X. (b) Determine the expectation of X and the
variance of X.
7 . The random variable X has probability (c) Determine P(3  2X  5).
density function 12. The continuous random variable X has probability
 14 0 x2 density function given by

f  x   1 k 1 x  9
 4  2 x  3
 2 x3 f  x   x
Find the: 0 otherwise
(a) cumulative distribution function, F(x), where k is a constant. Giving your answers correct
(b) median. to three significant figures where, appropriate,
find the:
8. The continuous random variable X has probability (a) value of k, and also the median value of X,
density function f given by (b) mean and variance of X,
k  x  3
(c) cumulative distribution function, F, of X, and
3  x  3
f  x   sketch the graph of y = F(x).
0 otherwise
where k is a constant. Rectangular (Uniform) Distribution
(a) Show that k = 181 If a random variable X is said to be uniformly distributed
(b) Find E(X) and Var(X) over the interval [a, b], then its p.d.f is given by:
(c) Find the lower quartile of X,  1
 , a xb
(d) Let Y= aX + b, where a and b are constants with f ( x)   b  a
a > 0. Find the values of a and b for 0, otherwise
which E(Y) = 0 and Var(Y) = 1.
Graphical representation of f(x)
Since the function is a constant over the given interval, f(x)
9. The continuous random variable, X, has is a horizontal line parallel to the x-axis
probability density function defined by f(x)
kx 0 x8

f  x   8k 8 x9
0
 otherwise
where k is a constant.
(a) Sketch the graph of f(x).
(b) Show that k = 0.025.
(c) Determine, for all x, the distribution 0 a b x
function F(x).
Expectation of X
(d) Calculate the probability that an observed Since the graph is symmetrical about the mid point of a
value of X exceeds 6.
ab
10. The cumulative distribution function of X is given by and b, hence the expectation of X is E(X) =
2
0 x0
 3 OR: By calculation, we have:
F  x  x 0  x 1 E ( X )   xf ( x) dx
1 x
 all x
b
Find the: x
 dx
(a) value of k, a
b  a
(b) probability density function f(x), b
(c) median of X,  x2 
(d) variance of X.  
 2(b  a )  a
11. The continuous random variable X has (cumulative) b 2  a 2 (b  a )(b  a )
 
distribution function given by 2(b  a ) 2(b  a )
ba

2
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

Variance of X b) Find the variance of Y

The variance of X denoted by var(X) is given by Solution
var( X )  E ( X 2 )  [ E ( X )]2 a) We know that for a ≤ x ≤ b,
ab
where E ( X 2 )  
all x
x 2 f ( x) dx E( X ) 
2
  
b
x2 So E (Y )  2 2  0
 dx 2
ba
a
( 2  2 ) 2  2
 x3 
b b) var(Y )  
  12 12
 3(b  a )  a 3. The continuous random distribution X is uniformly
b3  a 3 (b  a )(b 2  ab  a 2 ) distributed in the interval a < x < b
 
3(b  a ) 3(b  a ) The lower quartile is 5 and the upper quartile is 9
b 2  ab  a 2
Find: (a) the value of a and b
 b) P(6 < X < 7)
3
c) the cumulative function F(x)
b 2  ab  a 2  b  a 
2

var( X )    Solution
3  2  1
a) f ( x) 
b 2  ab  a 2  b 2  2ab  a 2  ba
  
3  4  For the lower quartile;
b  2ab  a
2 2 q1
1

12  f ( x) dx  4
a
(b  a )(b  a ) (b  a ) 2
  q1
1 1
12 12
 b  a dx  4
a
Examples  x 
5
1
1. A random variable X is distributed uniformly over the b  a   4
interval –5 ≤ x≤ –2  a
Find: 5a 1
 …………………………. (i)
(a) P(-4.3 < X < -28) ba 4
(b) E(X) For upper quartile,
(c) the standard deviation of X q3
3
Solution
(a) We know that for a uniform distribution, for any
 f ( x) dx  4
a
interval a ≤ x ≤ b; q3
1 3
f ( x) 
1  b  a dx  4
ba
a
9
 x  3
b  a   4
1 1
For -5 ≤ x ≤ -2, f ( x)  
2   5 3  a
2.8
1 9a 3
P(-4.3 < X < -2.8 =  dx  ………………………(ii)
3 ba 4
4.3
2.8 Eqn (ii) ÷ Eqn (i)
1  9a
  x 3
 3  4.3 5a
2.8  4.3 1.5 9 – a = 3(5 – a)
   0.5
3 3 9 – a = 15 – 3a
a  b 5   2 2a = 6
b) E ( X )    3.5 a=3
2 2 Substituting for a into Eqn (i)
(b  a) 2 2 1
c) S .D.  var( X )  
12 b3 4
(2  5) 2 b = 11
 1 1
12 b) f ( x)  
3 11  3 8
  0.866
1  7  6 1
7 7
1
6 8 dx   8 x 6  8  8
12 P(6 < X < 7) =
2. The continuous random variable Y has a rectangular 1
distribution  , 3  x  11
c) f ( x )  8
1   0,
 ,   y Otherwise
f ( y)   2 2
0, For X < 3, F(x) = 0
Otherwise
a) Find the mean of Y
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

1
x
1  x 3
x
(b  a) 2 (3  2) 2 25
For 3 ≤ X ≤ 11, F(x)   dt   t   but var( X )   
3
8  8 3 8 12 12 12
11  3 S .D. 
25
 1.443
F (11)  1
8 12
For x > 11, F(x) = 1
c) Interquartile range = q3 – q1
For lower quartile, we have;
x3
q1
0, 1 1
x3

 5 dx  4
F ( x)   , 3  x  11 2

 8
q1
x 1
1, x  11 5  4
  2
4. A random variable X has cumulative distribution F(x) q1  2 1
illustrated as follows 
5 4
y=F(x)
5
q1 + 2 =
1 4
q1 = -0.75
For the upper quartile;
q3
1 1
2 5 dx  4
q3
x 3
5  4
  2
- - 0 1 2 x q3  2 3
3 
2 the probability
a) Find 1 density function f(x) 5 4
b) Find the standard deviation of X 15
q3  2 
c) Find the interquartile range 4
d) Find the 20th percentile q3  1.75
Solution Interquartile range = 1.75 – -0.75
a) By finding the function F(x) first, = 2.5
C(3, 1) d) Let p = 20th percentile
p
1 20
 5 dx  100
2
p
P(x, y) x 1
5  5
  2
p2 1

5 5
A(-2, 0) p+2=1
Gradient of AP = Gradient of AC p = -1
y  0 1 0 5. The error in percentage made by an examiner may be

x  2 3 2 modelled by the random variable X, with probability
y 1 density function:
 0.1, 3  x  7
x2 5 f ( x)  
1 0, otherwise
y   x  2
5 Find the probability that the:
1 (a) error is positive
Hence for -2 ≤ x ≤ 3, F(x) =  x  2  (b) magnitude of an error exceeds 2%
5
(c) magnitude of an error is less than 4%
For x < -2, F(x) = 0 Solution
For x > 3, F(x) = 1 (a) For an error to be positive, X > 0
d 7
f ( x) 
dx   101 x 0
F ( x)
 1 7
dx so P(X > 0) = 10
0
For x < -2 and x > 3, f(x) = 0
7
For -2 ≤ x ≤ 3, f ( x) 
1 d
( x  2) 
1  0  0.7
5 dx 5 10
(b) P|X| > 2 = 1 – P(|X| < 2)
1
 , 2 x 3
2
f ( X )  5 = 1 – P(-2 < X<2) = 1 –  1
10 dx

0 otherwise 2

 1   101 x 2
2
b) S.D.  var( X )
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

1 Examination Questions
=1– (2 + 2)
10
4 6 1. (a) A random variable X has the following distribution:
 1   0.6
10 10 P(X = 0) = P(X = 1), P(X = 2) = 0.2,
(b) P|X| < 4 = P(-4 < X < 4) P(X = 3) = P(X = 4) = 0.3. Find the mean and variance
Note: Care must be taken with this part because for
of X
X < -3, f(x) = 0
So P(-4 < x < 4) = P(-3 < x < 4) (b) A continuous random variable X has the distribution
4 function:
  dx  101  x 3
1 4

3kx (1  x3 ), 0  x  1
2
10
3 F ( x)  
4  3 7 1, x 1
   0.7
10 10 Determine: (i) the value of k
Exercise 3.3 (ii) the probability density function of X
(iii) the mean of X
1. X follows a uniform distribution with probability
(iv) P(X > 0.5/0.25 ≤ X ≤ 1) (1988 No. 11)
density function: f(x) = k, 3≤x≤6
Find (a) the vale of k (b) E(X) Solution
(c) var(X) (d) P(X > 5) (a)
2. The continuous random variable X has a p.d.f f(x) as x 0 1 2 3 4
shown in the diagram P(X =x) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
xP(X = x) 0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2
y
y = f (x) x2P(X=x) 0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.8
E( X )   xP( X  x)
all X

 0.1  0.4  0.9  1.2  2.6

var( X )  E ( X 2 )  [ E ( X )]2
0 1 k x E ( X 2 )   x 2 P( X  x )
Find:  0.1  0.8  2.7  4.8  8.4
a) the value of k var(X) = 8.4 – (2.6)2
b) P(2.1 < X < 3.4) = 8.4 – 6.76 = 1.64
c) E(X) (b) (i) Since this is already a cumulated probability,
d) Var(X) ` F(1) = 1
3. The random variable Y has probability density  1
function given by:  3k 1    1
 3
0.2, 32  y  37 2k  1
f ( y)  
 0, otherwise 1
k
Find the probability that Y lies within one standard 2
deviation of the mean
d 3 x3 
4. X has a cumulative distribution function (ii) For 0 ≤ X ≤ 1, f ( x)   x 
dx  2 2
x2
F ( x)  ,2≤x≤7 3 3x 2 3
5    1  x 2 
Find (a) E(X) (b) Var(X) 2 2 2
5. The random variable X has probability density function
f(x) = k, 1 ≤ x ≤ 6
For X > 1, f ( x) 
d 2
dx
1   0
Find the:

 3 (1  x ), 0  x  1
2
(a) value of k Hence f ( x)   2
(b) cumulative distribution function F(x) 
0, Otherwise
(c) 20th percentile  1
3
(d) interquartile range (iii) E ( x)  

xf ( x)dx 
20 x(1  x 2 )dx
6. The length of an off-cut of a wooden planking is a
random variable which can take any value up to 0.5m. 3
1

2 0
It is known that the probability of the length being not  ( x  x 3 ) dx
more than x metres (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.5) is equal to kx.
1
Determine the: 3  x2 x4 
  
(a) value of k 2  2 4 0
(b) probability density function of X
(c) expected value of X 3  1 1   3 1 3
   0   
(d) standard deviation of X 2   2 4   2 4 8
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

(iv) P(X > 0.5/0.25 ≤ X ≤ 1) = P( X  0.5  0.25  X  1) If x = 0, f(x) = 0

P(0.25  X  1) If x = 10, f(x) = 10a
x > 0.5 For 10 ≤ x ≤ 10, f(x) = a(20 – x)
If x = 0, f(x) = 10a
0.25 0.5 If x = 10, f(x) = 0
0.25 < x > 1 f(x)
P(X > 0.5  0.25 ≤ X ≤ 1) = P(X > 0.5) 10
= P(0.5 < X< 1)
P(0.5  X  1)
P(X > 0.5/0.25 ≤ X ≤ 1) =
P(0.25  X  1)
F (1)  F (0.5)
 0 10 x
F (1)  F (0.25) 20
Area under graph = 1
3  x2 
F ( x)  x 1   1
2  3  20  10a  1
2
Now F(1) = 1
100a  1
3  0.25 
F (0.5)   0.5 1    0.6875 1
2  3  a
100
3  0.0625 
F (0.25)   0.25 1    0.3671875 (ii) Since the graph is symmetrical about x = 10, hence
2  3 
E(X) = 10
1  0.6875 var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
P( X  0.5 / 0.25  X  1) 
1  0.3671875
0.3125
E( X 2 )   xf ( x ) dx
  0.4938 all x
0.6328125 10 20
1 1
2. The outputs of 9 machines in a factory are independent
variables each with probability density function given
 
100 0
x 3 dx 
100 10
(20 x 3  x 2 ) dx

10 20
by 1  x4  1  20 x 3 x 4 
      
ax, 0  x  10 100  4  0 100  3 4 10

f ( x)  a(20  x), 10  x  20 2500 1  160   20, 000 
0,     40, 000     2500  
 otherwise 100 100  3   3 
Find the: 1  140, 000 
(i) value of x  25    37500 
100  3 
(ii) expected value and variance of the output of each
 116.6667
machine. Hence or otherwise find the expected value
Var(X) = 116.667 – (10)2 = 16.6667
and variance of the total output from all machines
Expected value of total output from 9 machines is
denoted by E(9X)
Solution
But E(9X) = 9E(X)

all x
f ( x)dx  1 = 9 × 10 = 90
Variance of total output = var(9X)
= 92var(X)
= 81 × 16.6667= 1350
3. (a) The number of cars crossing the Owen falls dam
daily is uniformly distributed between 1026 to 3025
cars
10 20 (i) Find the probability that at least 1625 cars
 a  x dx  a  (20  x ) 2 dx  1 cross
0 10
10 20
the bridge
x  2
 x2  (ii) What is the expected number of cars that will
a    a  20 x    1
 2 0  2 10 cross the bridge on any given day?
50a  a (200  150)  1
100a  1 (b) The probability density function of a random
variable X is
1
a  K sin x for 0  x  
100 f ( x)  
Alternatively, this could be solved by sketching the graph 0, elsewhere
of f(x) Determine: (i) the value of K

For 0 ≤ x ≤ 10, f(x) = ax (ii) P(X > 3
)
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

(iii) the median value of X (1990 No. 11) (i)  f ( x)  1

Solution all x

1 1 k(20 + 21 + 22 + 23 + 24 + 25 + 26) = 1
(a) f  x   
3025  1026 1999 k(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6) = 0
3025 127k = 1
 x 
3025
P ( X  1625)  
1625
1
1999
dx   
1999 1625 k
1
127
3025  1625
  0.7 (ii)
1999
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
(b) E(X) =  xf ( x) dx F(x) 1
127
2
127
4
127
8
127
16
127
32
127
64
127
3025
3025
 x2  xf(x) 0 2 8 24 64 160 384
  x
1999 dx   
 3998 1026
127 127 127 127 127 127

1026 2 8 24 64 160 384

E( X )      
30252  10252 127 127 127 127 127 127

3998 642
  5.055
(3025  1026)(3025  1026 127

3998 P( X  4  X  1)
 2025.5  2026cars (iii) P(X< 4/X > 1) 
P( X  1)

(b) (i) k  sin xdx  1 P( x  2,3)

0 P( x  2,3, 4,5,6)
k   cos x 0  1
 P( x  2)  P( x  3)

1  [ P( x  0)  P( x  1)]
k   cos   cos 0   1
4 8
2k  1  1271 1272
1  ( 127  127 )
1
k 12 3
2  
 0.098

127 31
1
2 3

(ii) P(X > 3
)= sin xdx  1 5. A discrete random variable X has the following
probability distribution
1 1 x 1 2 3 4 5
 cos x 3  cos   cos 3  P(X = x) k 2k 3k 4k 5k
2 2
1  1 3 i) Determine the value of k
 1     0.75
2  2 4 ii) Evaluate P(2 < x ≤ 4)
iii) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of X
(iii) Let m = median
m
(1992 No. 10)
1 1
 sin x dx  Solution
(i)  P ( X  x)  1
20 2
1 1
cos x 0m 
all x

2 2 k + 2k + 3k + 4k + 5k = 1
cos( m)  cos 0  1 15k = 1
cos( m)  1  1 1
k
cos( m)  0 15
m  cos 1 (0) (ii) P(2 < X ≤ 4) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)
 3 4 7
m   
2 15 15 15
(iii) x 1 2 3 4 5

Hence median = . P(X = x) 1 2 3 4 5
2 15 15 15 15 15

4. A random variable X hold the probability function xP(X= x) 1 4 9 16 25

15 15 15 15 15
k 2 x , x  0,1, 2,..6 x2P(X=x)
f ( x)  
1 8 27 64 125
15 15 15 15 15
0, elsewhere
1 4 9 16 25
Determine: E( X )     
15 15 15 15 15
i) the value of k
225
ii) E(X)   15
15
iii) P(X < 4/X > 1 (1991 No. 11) 2
 11  14
Solution var( X )  15    
3 9
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

14 Hence the condition holds, therefore g(x) is a p.d.f

S .D   1.247
9 Finding G(X)
6. (a) Which of the functions f(x) and g(x) below in which For x < 0, G(x) = 0
c1 and c2 are positive constants, can be used as x
200 2 t
99 0
probability density functions (pdfs) over the specified For 0 ≤ x ≤ ln10, G ( x )  e dt
ranges?
200  1 2t 
x
(i) f(x) = c1 sinx 0 ≤ x ≤ 3π  e 
(ii) g(x) = c2e ;–2x
0 < x < ln10 99  2 0
Determine the cumulative probability function for the 100 2t
  e  1
case where a pdf exists 99 
(b) The random variable X has the probability
density function 
100
99
1  e2 x 
cx, 0 x 1

f ( x)  c(2  x), 1  x  2 G (ln10) 
100
99
1  e210 
0,
 Elsewhere 100 99
where c is a constant. Find the median and mode of
 1  0.01   1
99 99
the probability distribution of X (1992 No. 12) For x > ln10, G(x) = 1
Solution 0, x0
For a continuous pdf, the following two conditions  100 2 x
must hold Hence G ( X )   99 (1  e ), 0  x  x ln10
1, x  ln10
(i)  f ( x)dx = 1 (ii) f(x) ≥ 0 for all values of x 
all x b) Sketching the graph of f(x):
Considering f(x); For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 f(x) = cx
3 if x = 0, f(x) = 0
(i) c1  sin x dx  1 if x = 1, f(x) = c
0
For 1 ≤ x ≤ 2, f(x) = 2(2 – x)
c1   cos x 0  1
3
if x = 1, f(x) = c
if x = 2, f(x) = 0
c1  cos 3  cos 0  1
c1  1  1  1 f(x)
2c1  1 c
1
c1 
2
Since c1 is positive, hence the condition holds
0 1 x
(ii) For 0 < x < π. Sinx > 0 e.g. sin  2   1
2
Area under the graph = 1
For π < x < 2π, sin x < 0 e.g. sin  32   1 1
 2 c  1
For 2π < x < 3π, sinx > 0 e.g. sin  52   1 2
c 1
Since f(x)  0 for all values of x, therefore this Since the graph is symmetrical about x = 1, therefore
condition does not hold and therefore f(x) is not median = 1.
a p.d.f Also since the graph has got the highest point at
x = 1, therefore mode = 1
Considering g(x); 7. (a) A random variable X has the probability density
ln10
function
e
2 x
(i) c2 dx  1
k (1  x 2 ), 0  x  1
0
f ( x)  
 1 
ln10
0, elsewhere
c2  e 2 x   1
 2 0 where k is a constant. Find
(i) the value of the constant k
c2 2 ln10
e  1  1 (ii) the mean of X
2  (iii) the variance of X
c2  1  (b) The number of times a machine breaks down
  1  1
2 100  every month is a discrete random variable X
with the probability distribution
99c2
1 
k ( 1 ) , x  0, 1, 2, 3,...
x
200 f ( x)   4
200 
0, elsewhere
c2 
99 where k is a constant
(ii) For 0 ≤ x ≤ ln10, ce–2x > 0 Determine the probability that the machine will break
(By substitution) down not more than two times a month (1993 No. 10)
(i) For a continuous pdf,
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F


all x
f ( x)dx = 1 (ii) the mean
(iii) F(x), the cumulative distribution function
1 (iv) P(1.5 ≤ X ≤ 3) (1994 No 11)
 k  x(1  x 2 )dx  1 3
0
Answer (i) (ii) 1.75
16
 x3  0, x0
k x    1
 3  3 3 2 x3
 ( x  3 , 0 x2
 1   (iii) F ( x)   16 2
k  1    0   1  4 x  32 x  2 , 2  x  4
3 3 2 1

 3   1, x4

2 3
k 1 k  11
3 2 (iv)
16
(ii) Mean of X, E(X)  
all x
xf ( x)dx 9. A random variable X has the probability density
function
1
3  32a ( x  a ), -a  x  0
2 0
 x (1  x 2 )dx

f ( x)   13 (2a  x), 0  x  2a
3  x2 x4  3  1 1  
1
0, else where
     0 
2  2 4  0 2  2 4   where a is a constant
3 1 3 Determine: (i) the value of a
   (ii) the median of X
2 4 8
(iii) P(X ≤ 1.5/X > 0)
(iii) Variance of X, var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2
E(X2)  
all x
x 2 f ( x)dx (iv) the cumulative distribution function
F(x). Sketch the graph of F(x)(1995 No 12)
1 Answers: (i) 1 (ii) 0.2679 (iii) 0.9375
3  x3 x5 
1
3 2 x  1
 
20
x (1  x 2 )dx    
2  3 5 0
0,
1 2
 3 ( x  2 x  1), -1  x  0
3  1 1   3 2 1 (iv) f ( x)  
   0     6 (2  4 x  x ), 0  x  2
1 2

2  3 5   2 15 5 1
 x2
2
1  3 19 10. The probability density function of a random variable
var( X )     
5 8 320 X is given by:
k ( x  2), -1< x  0

(b) For a discrete probability density function, f ( x )  2k (1  x ), 0  x  1
 P( X  x)  1
all x
0,
 Elsewhere
 P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + …. = 1 (i) Sketch the function
(ii) Find k and the mean of X
1 1 1
k  k  2 k  3 k  ...  1 (iii) Find the probability P(0 < X < 12 /X > 0)
4 4 4
(1997 No 10)
 1 1 1 
k  1   2  3  ...   1 11.A random variable X has a distribution probability
 4 4 4 
function given by
 a 
k 1 0  x 1
 1  r  kx,

 1  f ( x )  k (4  x ), 1  x  2
2

k  1  1 0, Elsewhere
1  4  
4k (i) Find the constant k
1 (ii) Determine E(X) and var(X)
3
(iii) Find the cumulative distribution function F(x)
3
k and sketch it (1998 No 13)
4 6
P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) Answers: (i) (ii) 1.1923, 0.1399
13
3  1 1  3 21 63
 1   2     x0
4  4 4  4 16 64 0,
3 2
8. A continuous random variable X has the probability  13 x , 0  x 1
density function (iii) F ( x)  
 13 ,1  x  2
24 x  2 x3 19

f(x) = kx(3 – x) 1, x2


f(x) = k(4 – x) for 2 ≤ x ≤ 4
12. A probability density function is given as:
f(x) = 0 else where
Find: (i) the value of k
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

kx(4  x 2 ), 0  x  2 Given that P(X > 1) = 0.8, find:

f ( x)   (i) values of a and k
0, elsewhere (ii) probability that X lies between 0.5 and 2.5
Find the: (i) value of k (iii) mean of X (2001 No 15)
(ii) median 2
Answers: a = –1, k  (iii) 0.6667 (iv) 1.8
(iii) mean 15
(iv) standard deviation (1998 No 11) 16. (a) A random variable X has the probability density
1 function
Answers: (i) (ii) 2.6131 (iii) 1.0667 (iv) 0.4422
4  1 , a xb
f ( x)   b  a
13.(a) A man buys 10 tickets from a total of 200 tickets in 0, elsewhere
a lottery. There is only one prize ticket of Shs. 10,000. (b  a) 2
(i) Find the probability that one of the tickets is a prize Show that the variance of X is
12
tickets (b) During rush hours, it was observed that the number of
(ii) If the prize of each ticket is Shs. 100 and assuming that vehicles departing for Entebbe from Kampala old taxi
all tickets are sold, find the expected loss
b) A man leaves at a point which is 20 minutes walk from park take on a random variable X with a uniform
the taxi stage. Taxis arrive at the stage punctually. If the distribution over the interval (X1, X2). If in one hour, the
probability density function for getting a taxi is given by expected number of vehicles leaving the stage is 12 with
 1 , 0  x  20 variance of 3, calculate the:
f ( x)   20 i) value of X1 and X2
0, elsewhere
ii)Probability that at least 11 vehicles leave the stage
Determine the: (2002 No 11)
i) expected time it takes to wait for a taxi
ii) variance of the time it takes to wait for the taxi 17. Given the cumulative distribution function:
(1999 No. 10)  x 21 x , 1 x  2
2

Answers: a) (i) 0.0478 (ii) 522 

100 F ( x )  3 x  2 ,x2
2 x3
b) (i) 10 min (ii) min 1, x3
3 
14. A random variable X takes on the values of the interval
(a) Find: (i) the pdf
0 < X < 2 and the probability density function given by
(ii) P(1.2 < X < 2.4)
 a, 0  x  1 12
a (iii) the mean of x
f ( x)   2 (2  x), 1 12  x  2 (b) Sketch f(x) (2003 No 10)
0, Elsewhere
  x  1, 1  x  2

Find (i) the value of a Answers: (i) f ( x)  3  x, 2  x  3
(ii) P(X < 1.6) 0,
b) The probability density function f(x) of the random  elsewhere
variable X takes on the form shown in the diagram (ii) 0.8 (iii) 2
below
(b) f(x)
f(x)
1

0 1 0 1 5
2 x 3 x
Determine the expression for f(x). Hence obtain the: 18. The probability density function of a random variable
i) expression for the cumulative probability density X is given by:
function of X
ii) mean and the variance of X (2000 No 14)  k ( x  2), -1  x  0
 2k , 0  x 1
16 
Answers: a) (i) (ii) 0.9744 f ( x)   K
25  2 (5  x ), 1  x  3
1  1 x, 0  x  2 0, elsewhere
b) f ( x)   2
0, Elsewhere b) Sketch the function f(x)
0, x0 c) Find the:
 2 2 i) value of k
(i) f ( x)   x  x5 , 0  x  2 (ii) E ( X )  , var(X) =
2

3 9 ii) mean of X
1, x2
 iii) P(0 < X < X1 > 0) (2004 No 11)
15. A continuous random variable X is defined by the Answers:
probability density function:
k ( x  1a ), 1  x  3
f ( x)  
0, elsewhere
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

f(x) f(x)
(a) 2k k

0
5 10
-1 0 1 5 3 x Determine the:
(i) value of k
2 12 7
(b) (i) (ii) (iii) (ii) equation of the p.d.f
13 13 13 (iii) E(T)
19. The probability density function of a random variable (iv) Probability that a pupil leaves between 4 and 7
X is given by: minutes after the bell. (2007 No. 9)
2kx, 0  x 1  251 t , 0t 5
 
f ( x )  k (3  x ), 1 x  2 Answers: (i) 15 (ii) f (t )   251 (10  t ), 5  t  10
0, 0,
 otherwise
 otherwise
a) Sketch the function f(x) (iii) 5 (iv) 0.5

22. A continuous random variable X has the probability

b) Find the (i) value of k density
(ii) mean of X
(iii) P 1  2x  0 2005 No 11  (1  cos x ); 0  x  2 ,

Answers: f ( x )   sin x; 
2  x 
(a) f(x) 0
 elsewhere.
2K a) Find:
(i) the value of λ
K (ii) P   3  X  3 4 

b) Show that the mean µ of the distribution is 1 
4
0 2 x (2008 No 12)
1
2 17 2
b) (i) (ii)(iii) No definite solution Answers: (a) (i) (ii) 0.6982
5 15 
20. A continuous random variable X has a probability
density function given by: 23. The random variable X has a probability
 , 2 x3
 k 22 ; x  0, 1, 2,3
f ( x)    ( x  2), 3 x  4 f ( x)  
function
0,
 otherwise  0 ; elsewhere
(i) Sketch f(x) Find:
(ii) Find the value of β, hence f(x) (a) the value of the constant k
(iii) Median, m (b) E(X) (2009 No.4)
(iv) P(2.5 < X < 3.5) 2006 No 15 34
Answers: (a) 151 (b) 15
Answers:
(i) f(x) 24. The probability mass function of a discrete
2β
random variable X is given by
  2 ; x  1, 2,3, 4
16 x

β f ( x)   15
0 ; Otherwise
Find the:
0
x (a) mean of X,
 52 , 2 x3 (b) variance of X.
2  Answers: (a) 1.733 (b) 0.862
(ii) f ( x)   52 ( x  2), 3 x 4 25. The continuous random variable X has the
5 0,
 otherwise probability density function (p.d.f.) given by
(iii) 3.22475 (iv) 0.65  k1 x, 1  x  3,

21. The departure, T of pupils from a certain day primary f ( x)  k2 (4  x) 3  x  4,
school can be modelled as in the diagram below, where t 0
 otherwise
is the time in minutes after the final bell at 5:00pm
where k1 and k2 are constants.
(a) Show that k2 = 3k1
(b) Find:
Simplified A’ level Mathematics Paper P.D.F

(i) the value of k1 and k2   y  1

 , 0 yk
(ii) E(X), the expectation of X ` f  x   4
Answers: (b) (i) 112 , 116 (ii) 2.485  0,
 elsewhere
26. A random variable X has the following
Find
probability distribution:
1 3 (a) the value of k
P ( X  0)  , P( X  1)  P( X  2)  and
8 8 (b) the expectation of Y.
1 (c) P(1  Y  1.5) (2015 No.9)
P( X  3)  . Find the :
8 Answers:
(a) mean value of X, (a) 2 (b) 7 6 (c) 0.28125
(b) variance of X. (2012 No.8)
Answers: (a) 1.5 (b) 0.75
27. A continuous random variable X has a
probability density function (p.d.f)

f(x) as shown in the graph below.

f(x)
k

0 1 2 x
(a) Find the :
(i) value of k,
(ii) expression for the probability density
function (p.d.f) of X.
(b) Calculate the:
(i) mean of X,
(ii) P( X  1.5 / X  0.5). (2012 No.12)
Answers: (a) (i) 1 (b)(i) 1 (ii) 0.8751
28. The probability density function (p.d.f) of a
continuous random variable X is given by
kx(16  x 2 ), 0 x4
f ( x)  
0 , elsewhere;
where k is a constant.
Find the;
(a) value of k.
(b) mode of X
(c) mean of X (2013 No.11)

1
Answers: (a) 64
(b) 2.31 (c) 2.13
29. The daily number of patients visiting a certain
hospital is uniformly distributed between 150 and
210.
(a) Write down the probability distribution function
(p.d.f) of the number of patients.
(b) Find the probability that between 170 and 194
patients visit the hospital on a particular day.
(2014 No.1)

Answers: (a) f ( x)   60
 ,
1 150  x  210

 0, otherwise
(b) 0.4

30. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of a random

variable Y is given by