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Exponentiation
Several formulas needed on the PMP Exam require exponentiation. The exponent is usually shown as a superscript to the
right of the base. For instance: 34. This exponentiation can be read as 3 raised to the 4th power or as 3 raised to the power
of 4. And 34 would be calculated as 3*3*3*3=81.
The superscript notation 34 is convenient in handwriting but can lead to errors when you are in a hurry like on the PMP
Exam. For instance, it is very easy to forget to “raise” the exponent in a formula when you are hurriedly writing it down in
the minutes before you start the exam. So, it could easily happen that the formula PV = FV / (1+r)n gets written down as
PV = FV / (1+r)n. The difference may seem trivial, but the result is disastrous. Therefore, we chose to use an accepted,
alternative way of expressing the exponentiation by using the ^ character.
When using this character, 34 is now expressed as 3^4 and PV = FV / (1+r)n is expressed as PV = FV / (1+r)^n. This
removes any margin for visual errors.
EV = % complete * BAC
Assumption: use this formula if PV for
all completed work is not given.
Earned Schedule (ES) The formula for the ES is relatively The ES is a numeric value expressed in
A measure of completed work expressed in terms of complex. Therefore, it is unlikely that the same units as these of the project
the authorized schedule for that work. you will be required to make any ES duration.
calculations on the exam.
Three-Point Estimating (Beta Distribution) Estimate = [Pessimistic + (4 * Most The result is the estimated duration/cost
Three-point estimate for the expected duration (or Likely) + Optimistic] / 6 of a schedule activity expressed as a
cost) of a schedule activity using pessimistic, weighted average.
optimistic and most likely values. This is a This is the preferred formula for the
probabilistic approach, using statistical estimates of PMP Exam unless the use of triangular
durations (or cost) to get a weighted average. Also distribution is explicitly called for.
known as the PERT estimate.
Three-Point Estimating (Triangular Distribution) Estimate = (Pessimistic + Most Likely + The result is the estimated duration/cost
Three-point estimate for the expected duration (or Optimistic) / 3 of a schedule activity expressed as a
cost) of a schedule activity using pessimistic, simple average.
optimistic and most likely values. A probabilistic
approach, using statistical estimates of durations (or
costs) to get a simple average.
Program Evaluation and Review Technique Please see Three-Point Estimating
(PERT) Estimate/Average (Beta Distribution)
PERT Activity Standard Deviation σ = (Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6 Large standard deviation indicates that
The standard deviation (σ) is a reflection of the the data points are far from the mean; a
uncertainty in the estimates. It is a measure of the small standard deviation indicates that
statistical variability of an activity. If an activity has the data points are clustered closely
different estimates: optimistic, most likely and around the mean. Hence, the larger the
pessimistic, the standard deviation will determine standard deviation, the greater the risk.
the variation in the same units of the
measurements.
PERT Activity Variance Variance = [(Pessimistic - Optimistic) / Unlike expected absolute deviation, the
The variance is a reflection of the uncertainty in the 6] ^ 2 variance of a variable has units that are
estimates expressed in squared units of the the square of the units of the variable
measurements. It is also a measure of the statistical itself. For example, a variable measured
variability of an activity. The difference between in inches will have a variance measured
variance and standard deviation is that the variance in square inches. For this reason,
is in the squared units of the measurements while describing data sets via their standard
the standard deviation is in the same units as the deviation or root mean square deviation
measurements. The standard deviation is not is often preferred over using the
additive and hence cannot be used in mathematical variance.
formulas for studying variations among different
populations; only variance can be used in such
cases.
Activity Duration Duration = EF - ES + 1 Number of days an activity lasts.
Determines how long an activity lasts. There are
two formulas; both will give the same result. Duration = LF - LS + 1
There are two approaches for calculating ES, EF, LS and LF:
• First approach: calculate the network diagram starting on day 0
• Second approach: calculate the network diagram starting on day 1
In the PMP Exam Formula Study Guide we use the second approach, because when your sponsor tells you that your
project starts on the first day of September, then that is September 1, not September 0. This is also the way that all
modern scheduling tools seem to work. You schedule your project based on a calendar start date and not "on day 0".
That is why there is a slight difference between the calculations: you have to add/subtract 1 from the results in the second
approach.
Of course, this often leads to confusion among the prospective PMP aspirants who ask which formula should they use on
the exam?
We have discussed this with several of our PMP trainer colleagues, and they agree that the Project Management Institute
(PMI)® does not "support" a specific method of calculating a network diagram. (Remember that next to the two options
shown above you could also calculate a network path starting on a specific calendar date in hours instead of days, making
the calculations even more complex).
Both of these calculations will lead to the correct answer. However, in the exam the big difference is that the first approach
(starting on day 0) involves fewer calculations because you don't have to "+1 or -1" each time. So, in order to reduce your
"risk" of doing a calculation wrong and saving time during the exam, you might want to initiate the network diagram with
day 0. However, in "real life" starting with day 1 is more appropriate.
Since PMI is aware of these varying methods, you should not see a question on the exam where only the application of
one or the other leads to the correct answer.
Final estimate 0%
Float on the critical path 0 days
Pareto’s Law 80/20 For instance: 80% of your problems are
due to 20% of the causes.
Time a PM spends communicating 90% According to Harold Kerzner.
Crashing a project Crash the tasks with the least expensive Only crash activities on the critical path.
crash cost first.
Value of the inventory in a Just in Time 0% (or very close to 0%.)
(JIT) environment
Sunk Cost A cost that has been incurred and cannot Sunk cost is never a factor when making
be reversed. project decisions.
Negative Numbers (100) In the USA the number -100 is the same
-100 as (100). Both indicate “minus one
hundred”.
There is a disagreement both on the names as well as on the actual ranges. Some books set the ROM at -25% to +75% others
at -50% to +100%. This is not surprising because estimate ranges are both application area and industry dependent. Everyone
does it slightly differently in their industry and on their projects. Therefore, it really isn't surprising that you will see different
numbers in different books.
The numbers that we provide in the table above have been successfully used by our students on the exam, so we believe
applying them on the exam is a good approach.