Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2013,Volume 8, Issue 3
Mohanad Halaweh
Abstract
The term emerging technology (ET) has been frequently used by IT professionals and academics. However, little research
has shed light on this term and specified its characteristics and what it means. Therefore, this paper aims to define and
conceptualize the characteristics of ET. These characteristics are uncertainty, network effect, unseen social and ethical
concerns, cost, limitation to particular countries, and a lack of investigation and research. Several examples of ETs are
given to validate these characteristics.
College of Information Technology. University of Dubai P.O. Box 14143, Dubai UAE. Phone: +971-4-2072-647. Fax: +971-4-223-2813
e-mail: mhalaweh@ud.ac.ae
To sum up, ETs are not necessarily new. Technology is la- communication technology that enables the transfer of data
beled as emerging in a particular context (domain, place, or over distances of up to 10 centimeters. This technology is
application) but can be established elsewhere. Technology is used for mobile payments in the retail industry. NFC speci-
also considered emerging when it is not widespread in a fications are set by stockholders and players, which include
particular context. ET has no limited or fixed life. Technol- MasterCard, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung Electronics, Sony,
ogy is defined as emerging when it causes a radical change Visa, Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB, Research
to business, industry, or society. In Motion, and others (NFC Forum, 2012). The NFC Forum
was formed in 2004 to advance the use of NFC technology
Characteristics of Emerging Technology by developing specifications, ensuring interoperability among
devices and services, and educating the market about NFC
The following sections describe the characteristics of ETs, technology. However, regarding specifications and standards,
which are also summarized in Table 1. the NFC Forum website mentions that:
chine. As the number of people (n) who own fax machines as life, health, justice, freedom, happiness, privacy, and secu-
increases, the value of the fax machine to each user in the rity. Although NFC technology is a relatively new emerg-
network increases. If only one user has adopted the ET, then ing technology and is still not widely used, Halaweh (2012)
its value in this context is meaningless. If two people adopt it, addressed some of the social and ethical issues that could
then the value is appreciated, and the value further increases be raised, such as inequality among customers and privacy
if more do so, which increases adoption. For example, the violations. He noted that this technology could increase in-
number of users who have adopted Facebook is increasing equality between people because it enables individuals who
due to its value, which increases by increasing the number have Blackberry mobile phones, for example, to enjoy rapid
of adopters. The number of users of an ET in a particular payment services at checkout points, whereas others who
context begins low and then gradually increases. This is also do not have a smartphone will have to wait longer to pay
correlated with time. As long as time passes, the number by cash or with a credit card. An additional ethical concern
of users will increase and the value of the ET will increase. is that banks will know more about customers, as they will
Another example of ET is using NFC technology enabled in use NFC-enabled mobile phones to pay for every purchase.
smartphones for mobile payments. The first trials for NFC Banks can collect data about their customers and analyze it
technology started in 2006–2007 (http://www.nfc-research. to identify customers’ purchase patterns and behaviors. In
at/). The first NFC-enabled mobile phone was developed by addition, technology might replace the traditional method
Nokia in 2006 (the Nokia 6131). Juniper Research forecasts of payment like carrying cash in one’s pocket. Hence, it in-
that there will be a rapid adoption of NFC and that one in creases people’s reliance on technology and the ubiquity of
five users worldwide will have an NFC-enabled phone by mobile phones. Although some of these concerns are not
2014 (http://www.juniperresearch.com/ ). However, it is not seen now, their impact might be discovered later when the
worth having mobile-enabled NFC if no payment services technology becomes widely accepted and used by people
using this technology are provided by merchants. If the ma- and merchants. However, addressing such concerns in early
jority of shops accept payment through NFC, the value of stages could help in setting proactive actions to deal with
this technology will increase as will the number of adopters. them.
One feature that uniquely differentiates ET from other The term “emerging” is often taken to mean emerging
forms of technology is the fact that its social and ethical im- from research and development (Vine, 2002). Cozzens et
pact is not seen or known when the technology is eventually al. (2008) pointed out that because ETs are research-based,
brought to the market or to a particular context. Usually, the they are more likely to be sold at high prices as firms try
added values and benefits are obvious. However, ethical con- to recover research and development costs. Cozzens et
cerns may arise depending on its application. If an ET is put al. (2009) stated that the high costs increases the poten-
into a new context, a new concern emerges. The impact of tial of ETs to increase inequalities in access among users.
an ET changes as its application changes. For example, Radio Although the point discussed here is related to costs, this
Frequency Identification (RFID) was initially used for inven- also affirms the previous notion that ETs raise ethical and
tory management. When it was used for tracking criminals, social concerns (i.e., inequality in accessing technology). On
it raised ethical concerns and debates about the tradeoff the other hand, Srinivasan (2008) pointed out that the costs
of peoples’ privacy rights and countries’ national security. during the early stages of the technology evolution process
Sandler (2009) indicated that some people have misconcep- are low because the new technology is “buggy” with low
tions about ethics and emerging technology. One of these performance and as the technology develops, its “bugginess”
is the belief that “it is too soon to tell what the social and is eliminated. Thus, its performance and price ratio increase,
ethical issues are” (Sandler, 2009, p. 6).This is due to the nar- and the potential benefits from the ET move from a nar-
row focus on the technology’s benefits and capabilities and row market to a larger mass market. New ET is always very
the neglect of broader contextual factors. In addition, Lucas expensive in the beginning because the initial production
(2011) pointed out that designers are not always aware that volumes are very low. These volumes are low because very
they are making ethical decisions when they develop or de- few manufacturers produce it; there is no certainty regard-
sign new technology. Hence, these ethical problems are often ing adoption volumes. However, by the time the technology
discovered after the technology is placed in a particular con- maturity increases, the number of manufacturers increase
text (e.g., place, domain, and application) and use. Therefore, and the competition increases between them. Consequently,
when a new ET is created or used in a particular context, the cost drops in correlation with time. Hence, over time,
its emerging ethical concerns should be highlighted in the the cost decreases and the spread increases. For example,
early stages of its lifecycle in order to use this technology the cost of an RFID tag started at $1.20 in 2005 but dropped
in a way that does not harm societal and human values such to .05 cents by 2012. (http://moscatiello.net/ ) (http://www.
rfidjournal.com/).
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Journal of Technology Management & Innovation © Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Facultad de Economía y Negocios.
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J. Technol. Manag. Innov. 2013,Volume 8, Issue 3
Another example is that the price of NFC-enabled smart- ple, the first trials of NFC use started in the United States,
phones started at approximately $700, which is relatively Canada, United Kingdom, and Japan between 2006 and 2008
high even in high-income countries. Users who would like (Chidembo, 2009). Other countries, such as the UAE, intro-
to benefit from NFC technology have to purchase a smart- duced NFC technology for payment services in 2011–2012
phone that has this technology. The NFC chip is not sold (http://www.telecoms.com/ ). Of course, many countries
separately for users to add to their phones. Therefore, they are behind in terms of adoption and use of this technology.
have to exchange their old mobile phones for one that is Industry-governmental coordination and support is impor-
NFC enabled; replacing old technology with ET is very high. tant to the introduction and adoption of ET to a new con-
The NFC microchip price might be cheap but the mobile text. Gunasekaran and Harmantzis (2007) pointed out that
phone that contains the chip is expensive; yet, this chip is the penetration of wireless emerging technologies, such as
available in a limited number of mobile phone brands.There- WiMAX, requires national policymaker initiatives to develop
fore, its penetration and usage is delayed. If the chip is inte- suitable strategies that promote them, thereby maximizing
grated into most inexpensive or affordable mobile phones, the social and economic benefits to the country and its citi-
customers will accept it and merchants will offer mobile zens. In their study of six innovations across 31 developed
payments through this ET. and developing countries, Talukdar et al. (2001) found that
developing countries still demonstrated slower adoption
ETs are limited to particular countries rates than developed countries. Affluent countries compete
for leadership in ET, and in the past, some less affluent coun-
Technology-creating countries will always appear to be tries found significant opportunities in the wide-open spaces
leaders who are starting revolutions, and technology-using of the technology emergence process (Cozzens, 2009). The
countries will always appear to be attempting to catch up availability of ET is an important condition for adoption.
(Cozzens et al., 2009). New ETs have been developed in People in developing countries and less developed countries
North America, Europe, and North Asia and then diffused may hear about a new ET. However, because of economic
to other parts of the world, either when a multi-national conditions, they are unable to enjoy this technology even
firm decides to place a production facility there or when though they wish to have it. If it is available to them, they
the technology becomes available for purchase. For exam- will adopt it.
Characteristics Description
ET uncertainty The uncertainty associated with ET takes several forms with un-
known and unpredictable values and outcomes, such as standards
and specifications (maturity), business models, price, and adoption
rate uncertainties.
Table 1. Characteristics of ET
ETs are not fully investigated and researched because of the increasing number of network users. ET also
starts with low technology maturity with incomplete speci-
In addition, research on ET is still not fully saturated; few fications and non-uniform standards. Additionally, few or un-
articles are published. Most of the materials on ET are white observable ethical and social problems are present at the
papers and technical reports produced by manufacturers beginning of an ET. However, as time passes, the number of
and stakeholders who benefit from this technology. This ethical and social concerns gradually increases.The reason is
point was also asserted by Veletsianos (2010) and Thomas that when ET is used in different applications, new and un-
et al. (2009). This makes firms, governments, and decision foreseen concerns arise. In contrast, as time passes, the cost
makers unable to make decisions about ET adoption, appli- of ET gradually drops and the level of uncertainty decreases.
cations, usage, and social implications because the main audi- The literature review includes extensive research that has
ence for these materials is professional industry personnel, investigated users’ and organizations’ intentions to adopt
which usually focus on the technical side of the ET. Well-es- and use new technologies in different contexts (e.g., e-com-
tablished research about an ET’s specifications, features and merce, m-commerce, e-banking, e-learning, and enterprise
capabilities, limitations, and social implications will increase systems). Most technology adoption research is based on
its adoption. For example, Thomas et al. (2009) pointed out two main theories: Technology Acceptance Model (TAM)
that little scientific research has been published on NFC due (Davis, 1989) and Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) (Rog-
to its recent emergence. Özdenizci et al. (2010) also noted ers, 1995). They are used to predict and test the factors
that the literature review on NFC does not include many that influence the acceptance and adoption of technology.
articles published in journals. Okazaki (2005) also pointed However, investigating the adoption of ET might require ad-
out that in 2005, the empirical explorations of m-commerce ditional, unique, non-traditional factors (constructs) rather
had experienced only modest growth because of the con- than those specified in TAM and IDT. Therefore, this poses
siderable uncertainties involved in mobile research. There- a question: Are the factors that influence the adoption of
fore, well-established research on ET increases its maturity, traditional/established technology identical to or different
knowledge about it, and thus its adoption. from those that influence the adoption of ET? For example,
traditional technology acceptance and adoption theories do
Discussion and Conclusion not consider the special characteristics of ET, such as un-
certainty, ET maturity, network effect, and cost. Therefore,
This paper has elucidated the term “emerging technology” integrating these characteristics with TAM and IDT will pro-
and its characteristics and highlighted some misconceptions vide further insights into the adoption and acceptance of any
about it. It is important to mention that the characteris- new emerging technology. This could be an interesting area
tics discussed in this paper are not necessarily present in for future research.
all emerging technologies. For example, when a technology
is labeled as emerging in one context (e.g., domain, place,
application) but is considered traditional/established in an-
other context, then the ET in this case is mature and stable.
Hence, uncertainty is not a relevant characteristic in this
case, at least with regard to the maturity of technology
specifications and standards. Therefore, one can state that
these characteristics are fully relevant when the technology
is emerging and completely new.
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