TRANSPORTATION

PLANNING
Module 3
 OUTLINE
3.1 Transportation Planning Process
3.2 Travel Demand Forecasting
3.3 Transportation Economics: Evaluation of Transport Alternatives
TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING
 FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND
• Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit
time that can be expected to travel on a given segment of a transportation
system under a set of given land-use, socioeconomic, and environmental
conditions.
DEMAND FORECASTING APPROACHES

1. Urban travel demand forecasting. When first developed in the 1950s

and 1960s, required that extensive databases be prepared using home
interview and/or roadside interview surveys.
2. Inter-city travel demand forecasting. data are generally aggregated to a
greater extent than for urban travel forecasting, such as city population,
average city income, and travel time or travel cost between city pairs
 FACTORS INFLUENCING TRAVEL
DEMAND
1. the location and intensity of land use;
2. the socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area; and
3. the extent, cost, and quality of available transportation services
SEQUENTIAL STEPS FOR TRAVEL
FORECASTING
 TRIP GENERATION
• Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will
begin or end in each traffic analysis zone within a study area
• Since the trips are determined without regard to destination, they are referred
to as trip ends
• Each trip has two ends, and these are described in terms of trip purpose, or
whether the trips are either produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic
zone
 TRIP GENERATION

• Trip generation models provide a measure of the rate at

which trips both in and out of the zone in question are made.
They predict the total number of trips produced by and
attracted to its zone.
 TRIP GENERATION
Within the context of an urban transportation study, three major
variables govern the rate at which trips are made from each zone within
the study area:
• Distance of zone from the central business district/city centre area
• Socio-economic characteristics of the zone population (per capita
income, cars available per household)
• Intensity of land use (housing units per hectare, employees per square
metre of office space).
 Trip Generation by Households
• Household-generated trips comprise more than 80 percent of all trips in an
urban area.
• The trips generated by households are classified as home-based and non-
home-based.
• Home-based trips have one end, either origin or destination, located at the
home zone of the trip maker.
• If both ends of a trip are located in zones where the trip maker does not
live, it is considered a non-home-based trip
PRODUCTIONS AND ATTRACTIONS
• The home end of a trip is a production (P) in the zone of the trip maker’s
residence irrespective of whether it represents the origin or destination of
the trip
• The non-home end of a home-based trip is considered to be attraction (A)
TRIP GENERATION
Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions
Balancing Trip Productions and Attractions
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION

• Trip distribution is a process by which the trips generated in

one zone are allocated to other zones in the study area. These
trips may be within the study area (internalinternal) or
between the study area and areas outside the study area
(internalexternal).
 TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• The end product of this process is the formation of a trip matrix between
origin and destination
TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Total trip Generation

Total trip attraction
TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Zone
TRIP DISTRIBUTION: GRAVITY MODEL

• The name is derived from its similarity to the law

of gravitation put forward by Newton where trip
interchange between zones is directly
proportional to the attractiveness of the zones to
trips, and inversely proportional to some function
of the spatial separation of the zones.
• One form of deterrence function is

Cij = cost function

α = model parameter
 Example: Gravity Model

• Taking the information from an urban transportation study,

calculate the number of trips from the central business zone
(zone 1) to five other surrounding zones (zone 2 to zone 6).
Within the impedance function, the generalized cost function
is expressed in terms of the time taken to travel between
zone 1 and each of the other five zones and the model
parameter is set at 1.9.
Answer
TRIP DISTRIBUTION: GROWTH FACTOR
MODEL
• Trip distribution can also be computed when
the only data available are the origins and
destinations between each zone for the
current or base year and the trip generation
values for each zone for the future year.
TRIP DISTRIBUTION: GROWTH FACTOR
MODEL
 MODAL CHOICE

• Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis

process that determines the number (or percentage)
of trips between zones that are made by automobile
and by transit.
MODE CHOICE : DIRECT GENERATION
MODELS
• Transit trips can be generated directly, by estimating either total person trips
or auto driver trips. Figure 12.8 on page 614 is a graph that illustrates the
relationship between transit trips per day per 1000 population and persons
per acre versus auto ownership. As density of population increases, it can be
expected that transit riding will also increase for a given level of auto
ownership.
MODE CHOICE : TRIP ENDS MODEL
• Todeterminethepercentageoftotalpersonorautotripsthatwillusetransit,estimates are made
prior to the trip distribution phase based on land-use or socioeconomic characteristics
of the zone. This method does not incorporate the quality of service.
The procedure follows:
1. Generate total person trip productions and attractions by trip purpose.
2. Compute the urban travel factor.
3. Determine the percentage of these trips by transit using a mode choice curve.
4. Apply auto occupancy factors.
5. Distribute transit and auto trips separately.
MODE CHOICE : LOGIT MODEL
 TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

• The procedure used to determine the expected

traffic volumes is known as traffic assignment
 To carry out a trip assignment, the following
data are required:
(1) number of trips that will be made from one zone to another (this information was
determined in the trip distribution phase),
(2) available highway or transit routes between zones,
(3) how long it will take to travel on each route,
(4) a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how motorists or transit users select a
route, and
(5) external trips that were not considered in the previous trip generation and
distribution steps.
 BASIC APPROACHES USED FOR
TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT
1. Diversion curves,
2. Minimum time path (all-or-nothing) assignment, and
3. Minimum time path with capacity restraint.
 DIVERSION CURVES

This method is similar in approach to a mode choice curve.

The traffic between two routes is determined as a function
of relative travel time or cost. Figure 12.12 illustrates a
diversion curve based on travel time ratio.
 MINIMUM PATH ALGORITHM
• The minimum time path method assigns all trips to those links that comprise
the shortest time path between the two zones.
• The minimum path assignment is based on the theory that a motorist or
transit user will select the quickest route between any O-D pair.
• In other words, the traveler will always select the route that represents
minimum travel time. Thus, to determine which route that will be, it is
necessary to find the shortest route from the zone of origin to all other
destination zones.
The following assumptions must be made:

(1) Trip makers choose a route connecting their origin and

destination on the basis of which one gives the shortest travel
time
(2) Trip makers know the travel times on all available routes
between the origin and destination.
 ASSIGNMENT/ACTIVITY
1. Identify and briefly describe the two basic demand forecasting situations in
transportation planning.
2. What are the three factors that affect the demand for urban travel?
3. Define the following terms: (a) home-based work (HBW) trips, (b) home-based
other (HBO) trips, (c) non-home-based (NHB) trips, (d) production, (e)
attractions, (f) origin, and (g) destination.
4. A person travels to work in the morning and returns home in the evening. How
many productions and attractions are generated in the work and residence zones?