COVID-19 epidemiology and coverage update

Dr Vinod Bura
National Seminar on COVID-19 Vaccination
Medical Officer, WHO, Indonesia
3rd Feb 2021
Presentation Overview

• Global / SEA Regional COVID-19

situational overview
• COVID-19 vaccines
• COVID -19 vaccination update
• Summary and Conclusion
 Global COVID-19 Situation Update

Number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, by date of report and WHO region Change in cumulative Covid-19 cases* compared to 1 week ago
30 December 2019 through 26 January 2021 Total cases 1 % change
Total cases week ago cases
Globally 99 365 277 95 320 138 4%
AMRO 43 986 129 41 962 884 5%
EURO 33 262 705 31 815 698 5%
SEARO 12 706 079 12 511 441 2%
EMRO 5 551 967 5 384 889 3%
AFRO 2 491 201 2 353 991 6%
WPRO 1 366 451 1 290 490 6%
United States of America 24 916 899 23 742 059 5%
India 10 676 838 10 581 837 1%
Brazil 8 844 577 8 488 099 4%
Russian Federation 3 756 931 3 612 800 4%
The United Kingdom 3 669 662 3 433 498 7%
France 3 007 706 2 866 665 5%
Spain 2 593 382 2 390 341 8%
Italy 2 475 372 2 390 102 4%
Turkey 2 435 247 2 392 963 2%
Germany 2 148 077 2 052 028 5%
*Ordered by total number of cases

Source: National IHR Reporting; Updated on 27/1/2021, 11:55 am CEST

Epidemic curve by WHO Region (as of 27 January 10H CEST)
 Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in SEAR by Country and Date of Report
(data reported by 7 am IST 27 January 2021)

Country Transmission Cases (%) deaths (%)

India Clusters of cases 10 676 838 (84%) 153587 (79%)
Indonesia Community 1 012 350 (8%) 28468 (15%)
Bangladesh Community 532 916 (4%) 8055 (4%)
Nepal Clusters of cases 270 092 (2%) 2017 (1%)
Myanmar Clusters of cases 138 368 (1.1%) 3082 (2%)
Maldives Clusters of cases 15 247 (0.1%) 51 (0.03%)
Sri Lanka Clusters of cases 59 922 (0.5%) 288 (0.15%)
Thailand Clusters of cases 14 646 (0.1%) 75 (0.04%)
Bhutan Sporadic cases 856 (0%) 1 (0.001%)
Timor-Leste Sporadic cases 67 (0%) 0
DPR Korea No case 0 0
 Reported COVID-19 Cases and deaths in SEAR
(data reported by 7 am IST 27 January 2021)
Total cases New cases % change in new TPR
Country Total cases Total deaths CFR
per 1 million pop (last 7 days) cases* (last 7 DMA)
India 10 676 838 7 737 153 587 1.4 95 001 -7.5 1.9

Indonesia 1 012 350 3 701 28 468 2.8 84 970 5.4 28.5

Bangladesh 532 916 3 236 8 055 1.5 3 885 -22.5 4.1

Nepal 270 092 9 270 2 017 0.7 2 100 -8.5 6.8

Myanmar 138 368 2 543 3 082 2.2 3 125 -10.9 2.3

Sri Lanka 59 922 2 798 288 0.5 5 503 12.7 4.5

Maldives 15 247 28 207 51 0.3 614 48.0 2.3

Thailand 14 646 210 75 0.5 2 052 16.6 2.4

Bhutan 856 1 109 1 0.1 8 -52.9 0.4

Timor-Leste 67 51 0.0 15 400.0 3.9

DPR Korea 0

SEAR total 12 721 302 6 293 195 624 1.5 197 273 -1.9

*Percent change in the number of newly confirmed cases/deaths in past seven days, compared to seven days prior.
CFR=Case Fatality Rate; DMA= Day Moving Average; TPR=Test Positivity Rate
Reported COVID-19 cases and trends in positivity rate
India Indonesia Bangladesh
New Cases, Tests and COVID-19 positivity rates New Cases, Tests and COVID-19 positivity rates New Cases, Tests and COVID-19 positivity rates

New cases and deaths by date of Report New cases and deaths by date of Report New cases and deaths by date of Report
COVID-19 landscape of
novel coronavirus
candidate vaccine
development
Information as of 29 January 2021
Information on vaccine products in clinical development
Information on vaccine products in clinical development
Dosage, schedule and route of administration of
candidates in clinical phase
 Panduan global
Roadmap SAGE untuk prioritisasi penggunaan vaksin
COVID-19 dalam konteks keterbatasan suplai vaksin
Mengingat urgensi dan efek luas pandemi COVID-19, SAGE
telah menyusun pendekatan untuk membantu
memberikan informasi terkait dengan rekomendasi sesuai
dengan situasi epidemiologi dan ketersediaan vaksin.
Untuk membantu pemberian rekomendasi penggunaan
vaksin COVID-19, SAGE menyusun Roadmap untuk
prioritisasi penggunaan vaksin COVID-19 yang
mempertimbangkan kelompok prioritas berdasarkan tiga
skenario epidemiologi :
 Transmisi di Komunitas/Community transmission
 Kasus Sporadik
 Tidak ada Kasus
Global guidance
SAGE Roadmap for prioritizing uses of COVID-19
vaccines in the context of limited supply
Given the urgency and wide-ranging effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic, SAGE has developed an
approach to help inform deliberation around the
range of recommendations that may be appropriate
under different epidemiologic and vaccine supply
conditions. To assist in developing recommendations
for use of vaccines against COVID-19, SAGE proposes
a Roadmap for Prioritizing Uses of COVID-19
Vaccines that considers priority populations for
vaccination based on 3 epidemiologic setting
scenarios:
 Community transmission
 Sporadic cases
 No cases
12
Mengapa kelompok tersebut diprioritaskan

• Terdapat permintaan global yang signifikan untuk vaksin yang aman dan
efektif guna menghentikan pandemi COVID-19.
• Ketika vaksin tersedia, vaksin akan diberikan kepada kelompok berisiko tinggi
• Identifikasi kelompok prioritas berdasarkan situasi kesehatan masyarakat,
medis dan bukti epidemiologi terkini untuk kelompok yang paling
terdampak jika mereka terkena/terpapar COVID-19
• Contohnya, tenaga kesehatan dan pekerja usia lanjut (lansia) and
merupakan kelompok prioritas karena mereka berisiko tinggi terkena
COVID-19 mengingat seringnya kontak dengan orang. Mereka juga sangat
mungkin menularkan virus kepada kelompok rentan saat bekerja di RS dan
fasilitas lansia.
• Hal ini merupakan keuntungan setiap orang jika kelompok-kelompok ini
mendapatkan prioritas vaksin sehingga mereka dapat memberikan pelayanan
esensial
Priority groups for COVID-19
vaccination

 Reducing morbidity & mortality due to

COVID-19
 Protect and Strengthen Public health
response
 Maintain productivity and minimize
social and economic impacts
 Mengapa kita memerlukan vaksin COVID-19?
• Vaksin dapat mencegah penyakit infeksi.
• Vaksin dapat mencegah campak, polio, hepatitis B, influenza
dan lainnya.
• Ketika sebagian besar masyarakat sudah terlindungi
dengan vaksinasi, kemampuan patogen untuk menular
menjadi terbatas. Hal ini disebut kekebalan komunitas
atau kekebalan tidak langsung ‘herd’ or ‘indirect’ or
‘population’ immunity.
• Ketika banyak orang sudah memiliki kekebalan, hal ini
secara tidak langsung juga akan melindungi orang yang
tidak dapat diimunisasi, seperti orang yang memiliki
gangguan imun system. 16
 Seberapa amankan vaksin COVID-19?
• Persyaratan keamanan vaksin COVID-19 sama dengan vaksin lainnya dan tidak akan
diturunkan meskipun dalam situasi pandemi.
• Uji klinis keamanan dimulai dari laboratorium, dengan pengetesan dan riset pada sel
dan hewan terlebih dahulu, sebelum dilakukannya riset pada manusia
• Prinsipnya adalah memulai dengan skala kecil dan hanya melanjutkan ke tahapan uji
klinis berikutnya jika tidak ada isu keamaan
• Uji klinis dilakukan untuk mengevaluasi vaksin COVID-19 dalam puluhan ribu relawan
untuk mendapatkan data ilmiah dan informasi lain yang diperlukan untuk menentukan
keamanan dan efikasi vaksin
• Uji klinis ini dilakukan oleh produsen vaksin sesuai dengan standard yang ketat
• Vaksin COVID-19 diujikan pada kelompok yang lebih luas – bukan hanya relawan
muda, sehat secara fisik, namun juga orang usia lanjut/lansia dan orang dengan comorbid
• Setelah pengembangannya, keamanan dan efikasi vaksin akan terus dipantau
secara ketat

Source: 17
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-key-facts#what-process-and-
methods-are-being-used-to-develop-and-approve-covid-19-vaccines?-section
 Global Update
COVID-19
vaccination
coverage

• Data as of 1st February 2021

• Source:
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-
vaccinations
 Cakupan vaksinasi
COVID-19 dosis ke-1
(kumulatif) secara
global
Safe vaccination with
> 100 million COVID-
19 Vaccine dose
 Cakupan vaksinasi
COVID-19 dosis ke-1
(harian, per tanggal 1
Feb 2021) secara
global
 COVID-19 vaccination
1 Indonesia
Daily and cumulative number of people who have received the 1st dose of the COVID-19 vaccine
46,394 ,
80,000 700,000 6%
88,128 ,
People visited 12%
70,000 603,673
600,000 vaccination site
603,673 = 738,195
,
60,000
82%
500,000

Number of vaccinated (cumulative)

Number of vaccinated (daily)

50,000

400,000 Vaccinated Postponed* Uneligible*

40,000

300,000 • Number of vaccinated

30,000 increased 51,579 (9.34%)
compared to yesterday
200,000 (cumulative)
20,000 • Average number of
vaccinated per day is
100,000 28,746
10,000
• The coverage is 39.33%
11,439

19,224

18,076

23,974

29,094

27,978

16,020

37,113

59,968

61,477

71,900

59,999

41,848

49,912

51,579
out of total target
8,994

5,531

2,256

7,095
130

1,534,937
66

- -
13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 26-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb 2-Feb

No. of 1st dose vaccinated Cumulative (1st dose vaccinated)

Data as of February 2021, 9.30 PM 2nd, *screening result from vaccination post
Source: KPCPEN website: https://pen-prod.udata.id/
 Infodemik menyertai pandemi

An infodemic isaccompanying
the pandemic
• An infodemic is an overabundance of
information – good or bad – that makes it
difficult for people to make decisions for
their health
• Misinformation1, disinformation2 and
fake news can cause real harm to health,
public trust, social cohesion and We’re not just fighting an epidemic;
emergency response we’re fighting an infodemic. Fake
news spreads faster and more easily
than this virus, and is just as
1 inaccurate information dangerous.
2 false or inaccurate information intended tomislead

Tedros AdhanomGhebreyesus
Director-General, World Health Organization
22
.
Challenges
• vaksin Anda aman dan efektif, akan menyelamatkan
nyawa
• Identifying priority population over > 60 with
comorbidity is challenging ( BPJS or screening etc.}
• Use of more than one type of vaccine, operational
challenges.
• Monitoring of the entire operation during lockdown,
community transmission
• With the launch of vaccine > 30% increase in rumors /
hoax on social media
• Engagement of local communities, local leaders, other
sectors, professional, religious leaders, private sector,
industry, etc. is essential
• Tahun 2021 tampaknya menjadi tahun yang panjang
untuk vaksinasi COVID, kemungkinan berdampak pada
layanan kesehatan penting, imunisasi rutin, pengawasan
VPD, dan program PH lainnya
Terima kasih