Risk is the potential for performance shortfalls, which may be realized in the future, with respect

to achieving explicitly established and stated performance requirements. The performance

shortfalls may be related to institutional support for mission execution or related to any one or
more of the following;

• safety
• technical
• cost
• schedule

Initiating Event Selection: What can go wrong? It can be solely technical, based on the
schedule, budget, etc. Define it.

Scenario Development: How frequently does it happen? Quantification of frequency

Consequences Modelling: What are the consequences? Quantification of consequences

Here we need to consider the components of the risk.

● The scenario(s) leading to a degraded performance with respect to one or more

performance measures
● scenarios leading to injury, fatality, destruction of key assets;
■ scenarios leading to exceedance of mass limits;
■ scenarios leading to cost overruns; scenarios leading to schedule
slippage)
○
● The likelihood of that scenario
● The consequence
Cost Risk:

This is the risk associated with the ability of the project to achieve its life-cycle cost objectives
and secure appropriate funding. Here we need to be concerned about the two risk areas
bearing on cost:

(1) the risk that the cost estimates and objectives are not accurate and reasonable;
(2) the risk that program execution will not meet the cost objectives as a result of a failure to
handle the cost, schedule, and performance risks.

Schedule Risk:

Schedule risks are those associated with the adequacy of the time estimated and allocated for
the project.

Two risk areas bearing on schedule risk are

(1) the risk that the schedule estimates and objectives are not realistic and reasonable
(2) the risk that program execution will fall short of the schedule objectives as a result of failure
to handle cost, schedule, or performance risks.

Technical Risk

This is the risk associated with the evolution of the design and technical requirements. The
design, test, and processes (process risk) influence the technical risk.

Programmatic Risk

Which the project manager has no control, but which may have a significant impact on the
project. These impacts may manifest themselves in terms of technical, cost, and/or schedule.

This includes such activities as export accessories issues, sponsorship agreement issues,
external organizational changes, etc.

Scenario

A sequence of credible events that specify the evolution of a system or process from a given
state to a future state.

Risk Management Process

Inputs
• Project Risk Management Plan: Defines how risk will be identified, mitigated, monitored, and
controlled within the project
. • Technical Risk Issues: These will be the technical issues identified as the project progresses
that pose a risk to the successful accomplishment of the project mission/goals.

• Technical Risk Status Measurements: These are any measures that are established that help
to monitor and report the status of project technical risks.

• Technical Risk Reporting Requirements: Includes requirements of how technical risks will be
reported, how often, and to whom.

• Other Plans and Policies: Systems Engineering Management Plan, the form of technical data
products, and policy input to metrics and thresholds.

• Technical Inputs: baseline, performance requirements, and relevant experience data.

Activities

● Prepare a Strategy to Conduct Technical Risk Management

● Identify Technical Risks
● Conduct Technical Risk Assessment
● Prepare for Technical Risk Mitigation
● Monitor the Status of Each Technical Risk Periodically
● Implement Technical Risk Mitigation and Contingency Action Plans as Triggered

Outputs

Technical Risk Mitigation and/or Contingency Actions: Actions taken to mitigate identified risks
or contingency actions taken in case risks are realized

. • Technical Risk Reports: Reports of the technical risk policies, status, remaining residual risks,
actions taken, etc.
. • Work Products: Includes the procedures for conducting technical risk management