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The Monty Hall Problem – The Three Doors Problem Purpose

Probability is a mathematical concept that expresses the likelihood of an event taking

place. The concept began in the mid-seventeenth century by a man known as Pascal (Shodor).

One of the most interesting forms of probability is conditional probability. Conditional

probability is the likelihood of the occurrence of an event based on the outcome of the previous

event. The Monthly Hall simulation involves the user applying conditional probability to

determine the winning door (Shodor). The simulation’s condition is the event of opening a non-

winning door based on the first picked door. Based on this condition, the chances of the user

guessing the right door are increased.

Purpose statement

This experiment aims to analyze the Monthly Hall simulation and determine whether a

user is more likely to get better results by sticking to the original door or by changing the original

door. The likelihood of better results is indicated by a higher probability to win which is

determined by the number of games won.

Hypothesis

a. Null hypothesis (H0): Stick to the original door gives a higher probability to win.
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b. Alternative hypothesis (Ha): Stick to the original door does not give a higher probability

to win.

Procedure

To test the hypothesis, the Monthly Hall simulation was run for 10 rounds. Each round

had a total of 60 tries where 30 tries involved sticking to the original door and 30 tries involved

changing the door. After each round, the results obtained were recorded in a Table. The results

were then subjected to t-Test analysis to determine if their difference was statistically significant.

Results

Table 1 indicates the results of the probability to win (%) obtained after running the

Monthly Hall simulation for 10 rounds. Screenshots for each round are in the Appendix.

Table 1: Simulation Results

Round Probability to win (%)

Stick to original door Change original door
1 16.67 73.33
2 36.67 63.33
3 20.00 63.33
4 26.67 53.33
5 30.00 53.33
6 33.33 53.33
7 36.67 76.67
8 43.33 63.33
9 43.33 76.67
10 33.33 73.33
Descriptive Statistics
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Table 2: Descriptive Statistics

Stick to original door   Change original door  

Mean 32 Mean 64.998

Standard Error 2.819202409 Standard Error 3.033313113
Median 33.33 Median 63.33
Mode 36.67 Mode 63.33
Standard Deviation 8.915100797 Standard Deviation 9.592178295
Sample Variance 79.47902222 Sample Variance 92.00988444
Kurtosis -0.514420266 Kurtosis -1.699699436
Skewness -0.46511675 Skewness -0.069605217
Range 26.66 Range 23.34
Minimum 16.67 Minimum 53.33
Maximum 43.33 Maximum 76.67
Sum 320 Sum 649.98
Count 10 Count 10

Significance test

Table 3: t-Test Analysis

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

  Stick to original door Change original door

Mean 32 64.998
Variance 79.47902222 92.00988444
Observations 10 10
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 18
t Stat -7.968372031
P(T<=t) one-tail 1.29642E-07
t Critical one-tail 1.734063607
P(T<=t) two-tail 2.59284E-07
t Critical two-tail 2.10092204  

Analysis
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The average probability of win for stick to original door is 32.00% whereas the average

probability of win for change original door is 64.998%. The minimum and maximum probability

of win for stick to original door are 16.67% and 43.33%. On the other hand, the minimum and

maximum probability of win for change original door are 53.33% and 76.67%. From the t-Test

results, P(T<=t) two-tail is less than 0.05 (p-value<0.05). This means that the difference in the

probability of win between stick to original door and change original door are statistically

significant. We, therefore, reject the null hypothesis and confidently conclude that change

original door has gives a higher probability of win.

Conclusion

The initial hypothesis was correct (the null hypothesis was rejected). Change original

door gives the user a higher probability of win compared to stick to original door. This means

that the best strategy to win the grand prize is to change original door rather than to stick to the

original door chosen. I have used evidence-based reasoning through data analysis.

Works Cited
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Shodor. "Interactivate: Simple Monty hall." Shodor: A National Resource for Computational

Science Education, www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/.

Appendix
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Round 1 Round 2

Round 3 Round 4

Round 5
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Round 6

Round 7 Round 8

Round 9
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Round 10