Greece Earthquake

Greece is the most seismically active

country in Europe, accounting for more

than half of the continent’s seismic

energy release. Recent economic growth

has led to an increase in risk as

illustrated by the M5.9 1999 Athens

Earthquake, the costliest in Greek

history. Incorporating the latest

research by RMS and local experts,

the RMSTM Greece Earthquake model offers

the most advanced capability for

TM analyzing earthquake risk in Greece.

Risk Management Solutions


7.5 - 8.0
7.2 - 7.5
6.9 - 7.2
6.6 - 6.9
6.3 - 6.6
Shallow crustal seismic sources in Greece, categorized by
maximum earthquake magnitude on each source
R e f l e c t i n g t h e L at e s t i n
E a rt h qua k e R e s e a rc h
Greece sits on a tectonically active plate boundary
at the convergence of the Eurasian and African
lithospheric plates.The RMSTM Greece Earthquake
model reflects the very latest in seismology as
well as the rich historical earthquake data of the
region.The modeled seismic sources are based on
a historical earthquake catalog dating back to
1500, supplemented by data on major earthquakes
reaching as far back as 550BC.
The model was calibrated using data from
several major earthquakes, including detailed
damage reports and reconnaissance surveys
following the 1999 Athens Earthquake.
Calibration was conducted for each aspect of the
model including seismic hazard, attenuation,
ground shaking intensities, building vulnerability,
and modeled loss estimates.This makes the RMS
Greece Earthquake model a powerful and reliable
tool for analyzing catastrophe losses.
Soft Soil
Stiff Soil
Dense Soil/Soft Rock
Hard Rock
Postal code soil data reflects poor soil conditions west of
Athens, where exposure has grown in recent years
Hazard Modeling and
G e ol o g i c Data
The RMS Greece Earthquake model incorporates
sources of seismic activity throughout the country.
Subduction seismic zone sources model the
occurrence of intermediate depth earthquakes in
the Hellenic Arc. Shallow crustal seismic sources
are modeled throughout Greece and across its
borders providing a complete seismic hazard
analysis of exposures.
The attenuation (dispersion) of seismic energy
arising from an event source is accounted for
depending on the type of seismic source and the
focal depth. Detailed soil and liquefaction data
permit accurate modeling of likely ground
motion amplification at a given location.The
model also includes postal code geotechnical data
throughout Greece.
Aggregate hazard data at the prefecture and
CRESTA Zone level are based on detailed
exposure information for residential, commercial,
and industrial lines of business.

Average Annual Loss
Inventory Pre-1959 1959-1983 1983-1994
Mix
Year of Construction
Relative damageability by year of construction,
reflecting changes to the Greek seismic building code
Greece-Specific Building
Vu l n e r a b i l i t y
The vulnerability module in the Greece
Earthquake model incorporates extensive RMS
research on the country’s predominant building
materials, construction practices, seismic building
code provisions, and building performance in
countries with similar seismicity.The resulting
damage relationships reflect variability across the
four seismic zones defined by the building code
as well as differences between urban and non-
urban areas.
The model accounts for differences in
vulnerability based on year of construction,
reflecting seismic code changes in 1959, 1984,
and 1995. Loss accuracy for a facility may be
further improved when additional building
information, such as the presence of soft story
(pilotis) is available. Damage relationships have
been validated against data from recent
earthquakes, including damage statistics for over
200,000 structures inspected following the 1999
Athens Earthquake.
Thessaloniki
High
Athens
Post-1994 Low
Geographic pattern of risk in Greece, as illustrated by
technical rates for multi-family residential line of business
RMS’ Perspective on
E a rt h qua k e R i s k i n G r e e c e
Athens and Thessaloniki comprise over 40% of
Greece’s population. Both cities are in zones of
moderate seismicity, but face the threat of distant
large magnitude earthquakes.
Earthquake risk has increased in the Athens
area as evidenced by losses in the 1999 Athens
Earthquake, the costliest in Greek history. Major
contributors to increased insurance exposure in
Athens are:
• Rapid economic growth, and the upcoming
2004 Olympic Games
• Expansion toward the north and west in closer
proximity to seismogenic areas
• Concentration of industrial exposure in areas
with poor soil conditions to the west of Athens
RMS estimates economic losses equivalent to
those of the 1999 Athens Earthquake (M5.9) to
occur approximately once every 33 years. A
repeat of the 1897 Tripole Earthquake (M7.5)
would cause even greater losses, more than 1.5
times those observed in the Athens event.
G r e e c e E a rt h qua k e M od e l Vu l n e r a b i l i t y M o d e l i n g
H i s t ory • Building, contents, and business interruption
• Released 2001 • Greece-specific vulnerability functions
• Available in RiskLink®-ALM and RiskLink®-DLM • Damage curves accounting for variation in
building vulnerability for 4 seismic building code
Geographic Scope
zones, urban and non-urban settings
All of Greece
• 12 distinct building classes and 3 height ranges
E x p o s u r e Data R e s ol u t i on • Vulnerability functions for pre-1959, 1959-83,
Postal Code, Prefecture, or CRESTA Zone 1984-1994, and post-1994 construction to reflect
code revisions
P ro b a b i l i s t i c E v e n t S e t
• Building inventory databases reflect building
• 4,122 stochastic events from 7 intermediate and stock mix by prefecture, line of business, height,
deep zone sources and 55 shallow crustal sources and year built
• Event recurrence based on Poisson models • Secondary modifiers include soft story, short
column, engineered foundation, construction
Hazard Modeling
quality, structural upgrade, and equipment
• 3 attenuation functions specific to tectonic
construction quality
settings and earthquake mechanisms
• Soil and liquefaction data at postal code S p e c i a l Fe at u r e s
resolution, based on 1:50,000 resolution soil • Seismic sources extend across Greece border to
maps for Athens and Thessaloniki, and 1:500,000 include cross-border effects
resolution maps for the rest of Greece • Model validation using extensive research and
• Calibrated using seismic intensity distributions data from the 1999 Athens Earthquake
for events dating back 130 years
A L M ® P ro f i l e s

• Resolution: CRESTA Zone

• Lines of Business: Residential Single-family
Dwelling, Residential Multi-family Dwelling,
Commercial, and Industrial

Risk Management
S ol u t i on s, I n c.

7015 Gateway Blvd.

Newark, CA 94560
USA
Tel 1.510.505.2500
Fax 1.510.505.2501
Wo r l d w i d e We b Tel 44.20.7256.3800 (Europe)
http://www.rms.com
E - m a i l
info@ rms.com

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