YRI S&P 500

Earnings Forecast
Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 16, 2022

Dr. Ed Yardeni
516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

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 S&P 500 Earnings: YRI vs. Consensus Forecasts (5/15/2022)
Page 1 / May 16, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings
YardeniForecast
Research Yardeni Research, Inc.
Analysts' Consensus
www.yardeni.com
Level YOY % Level YOY %

2009 60.80 -7.3 60.80 -7.3

2010 85.32 40.3 85.32 40.3

2011 97.82 14.7 97.82 14.7

2012 103.80 6.1 103.80 6.1

2013 109.68 5.7 109.68 5.7

2014 117.86 7.5 117.86 7.5

2015 117.46 -0.3 117.46 -0.3

2016 118.04 a 0.5 118.04 a 0.5

2017 131.98 a 11.8 131.98 a 11.8

2018 161.93 a 22.7 161.93 a 22.7

Q1 38.07 a 23.2 38.07 a 23.2
Q2 41.00 a 25.8 41.00 a 25.8
Q3 42.66 a 27.5 42.66 a 27.5
Q4 41.18 a 14.3 41.18 a 14.3

2019 162.97 a 0.6 162.97 a 0.6

Q1 39.15 a 2.8 39.15 a 2.8
Q2 41.31 a 0.8 41.31 a 0.8
Q3 42.14 a -1.2 42.14 a -1.2
Q4 42.00 a 2.0 41.99 a 2.0

2020 139.76 a -14.2 139.76 a -14.2

Q1 33.13 a -15.4 33.13 a -15.4
Q2 27.98 a -32.3 27.98 a -32.3
Q3 38.69 a -8.2 38.69 a -8.2
Q4 42.60 a 1.4 42.60 a 1.5

2021 208.53 a 49.2 208.53 a 49.2

Q1 49.13 a 48.3 49.13 a 48.3
Q2 52.75 a 88.5 52.75 a 88.5
Q3 53.89 a 39.3 53.89 a 39.3
Q4 54.05 a 26.9 54.05 a 26.9

2022 240.00 e 15.1 228.58 e 9.6

Q1 54.00 e 9.9 54.89 e 11.7
Q2 59.00 e 11.8 55.55 e 5.3
Q3 63.00 e 16.9 59.43 e 10.3
Q4 64.00 e 18.4 61.03 e 12.9

2023 260.00 e 8.3 251.06 e 9.8

e=estimate.
* Historical earnings growth rates and earnings are not adjusted for accounting and index composition changes.
Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
 S&P 500: YRI Forecasts (4/3/2022)
Y/Y Revenue Growth (%) Revenue E/R (Margin %) Earnings

/ YRI S&P 500 Earnings

Page 2 / May 16, 20222009 -12.9 Forecast 908.40 a 6.7 a Yardeni
60.80 a Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
2010 6.0 962.70 a 8.9 a 85.32 a

2011 9.4 1052.83 a 9.3 a 97.82 a

2012 3.8 1092.38 a 9.5 a 103.80 a

2013 2.2 1116.81 a 9.8 a 109.68 a

2014 4.2 1163.31 a 10.1 a 117.86 a

2015 -3.3 1124.39 a 10.4 a 117.46 a

2016 2.2 1149.18 a 10.3 a 118.04 a

2017 7.2 1231.57 a 10.7 a 131.98 a

Q1 7.4 292.78 a 10.6 a 30.90 a
Q2 5.8 300.98 a 10.8 a 32.58 a
Q3 6.0 308.22 a 10.9 a 33.45 a
Q4 9.5 329.59 a 10.9 a 36.02 a

2018 9.0 1343.01 a 12.1 a 161.93 a

Q1 9.4 320.39 a 11.9 a 38.07 a
Q2 11.2 334.64 a 12.3 a 41.00 a
Q3 10.7 341.27 a 12.5 a 42.66 a
Q4 5.2 346.71 a 11.9 a 41.18 a

2019 5.4 1415.20 a 11.5 a 162.97 a

Q1 5.8 338.85 a 11.6 a 39.15 a
Q2 5.2 351.91 a 11.7 a 41.31 a
Q3 4.0 355.02 a 11.9 a 42.14 a
Q4 6.6 369.42 a 11.4 a 41.99 a

2020 -3.9 1359.41 a 10.3 a 139.76 a

Q1 -1.8 332.59 a 10.0 a 33.13 a
Q2 -10.3 315.61 a 8.9 a 27.98 a
Q3 -2.3 346.71 a 11.2 a 38.69 a
Q4 -0.5 367.48 a 11.6 a 42.60 a

2021 15.4 1568.40 a 13.3 a 208.49 a

Q1 9.5 364.05 a 13.5 a 49.13 a
Q2 21.8 384.51 a 13.7 a 52.75 a
Q3 13.9 395.07 a 13.6 a 53.89 a
Q4 15.6 424.77 a 12.7 a 54.14 a

2022 14.1 1790.00 e 13.4 e 240.00 e

2023 8.7 1945.00 e 13.4 e 260.00 e

e=estimate.
Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
 Figure 1.
2100 2100
2000 S&P 500 REVENUES & YRI FORECASTS 2000
(dollars per share, ratio scale)
1900 1900

1800 1800

1700 1700

1600
YRI Forecasts 22 1600
2022 (1790.00) 23 Q4
1500 2023 (1945.00) 1500

1400
Consensus Forecasts 1400
2022 (1717.35)
2023 (1804.99)
1300 1300

1200 1200

1100 1100
S&P Actual RPS
1000
RPS* (1566.80) 1000

yardeni.com Latest data thru 05/05/22

900 900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of revenues per share.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 2.
275 275
250 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE & YRI FORECASTS 250
(dollars per share, ratio scale)
225 23 225
Q4
200 200
22
175
YRI Forecasts 175
2022 (240.00)
2023 (260.00)
150 150
Consensus Forecasts
125 2022 (228.58) 125
2023 (251.06)

100 100

I/B/E/S Actual EPS

EPS* (209.83)
75 75

yardeni.com Latest data thru 05/12/22

50 50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / May 16, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 3.
15 15
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & YRI FORECASTS
14 (percent) 14
23
22 Q4
13 13
YRI Forecasts
12 2022 (13.4) 12
2023 (13.4)
11 Consensus Forecasts 11
2022 (13.0)
2023 (13.6)
10 10

9 9

8 8

Actual Margin
7 Profit Margin* (13.4) 7

6 6

yardeni.com Latest data thru 05/05/22

5 5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Four-quarter trailing operating profit margin.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 4.
340 340
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL
290 290
(I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)
(dollars per share, ratio scale)
240 5/12 240
Q4
190 YRI Forward 190
Earnings Forecast
2022 (265.00)
2023 (300.00)
140 140

90 90

Earnings Per Share

Forward* (236.79)
Operating** (4Q sum) (209.83)

yardeni.com
40 40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.
** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / May 16, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 Figure 5.
25 25
S&P 500 FORWARD P/E* Latest (17.0)
24 24
23 23
22 22
21 21
20 YRI Forward 20
P/E Forecast
19 2022 (16.0 to 19.0) 19
18 2023 (16.0 to 19.0) 18
17 5/13 17
16 16
15 15
14 14
13 13
12 12
11 11
10 10
yardeni.com
9 9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.
7000 7000
6500 6500
6000 S&P 500 INDEX & YRI FORECASTS 5700 6000
5500 (ratio scale) 5000 5500
5000 4800 5000
4500 4500
4000 5/13 4000
4200
3500 3500
3000 3000

2500 2500

2000 2000

1500 YRI Forecasts 1500

(red line)

1000 1000

yardeni.com
500 500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Page 5 / May 16, 2022 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Yardeni Research, Inc.
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