BAEStAM STATISTICS

SdyeCA SteHsHy i C moemacOL Cp poTo

Boyean Cappotocc
nIolvs he
e Capoi co on oL Po1obcbukg
kooL
Tis Cappotoa iuoyes i au Pou oun bee Cs

eon UuHa i4 O0 do e d
Oudevidinu
emerges Hroua duen Coltec hOn . THd Ouue
-e besis Loun
Pos Heu oun beue ounm oun
Ycuye &un InteunCes Posein nuely-

PoUon
1eee

Fotequen Hs Stash T e mos Gue Used

in Feunnal me od
StaHsm
-e
eren haut ouThUuulan Rut in the 1org uun
OEhe met i-e, i involve Uepeaed toia
Unde he
Same (ondion)
Fon ea TOSSi a Coin b de mine
uhere i is u y
On not

nlo OF T0ss lo OL hea Ch) Oipienu (Tld

o

So
oo O

-3

O66
 Date
Page
CCn Con AdA at Ha l CA Fu Co in n
e Puro ba bu ky
head
TH euidtn Ciom th Obs enloHOn HLe
e imen dendind O e,
Hmes e epeiment 1 OneaLed
THa i C mog on dncubece
FotaqunH
Conoah

Baye's Theoutm

CCOndi honcu Potobci bii y

COndi HonoR Potobale i y he tobulet OAn euur

giun he Cnonen c U ad
by PCATG) Cnd Con b
dene Cy

PAA6
PCALB) PC)#D

Cuuy
game Suppos e cp\aen eed o dauw
C blaCle Casid uiK CA ira n OUd e

ultety hod dtaun CA btot ie Cassd

u hoL is e Potobeh i u O hen guNr9 game

CAn6)- p Coblcudrq O btolk Cund h i \Cirg

Pce) PCPiuirg Cand) 2
THs PAl) = 2/TL
S2 13
 Date

Page

Byes Theom

PAl6) = -

PA)
()
Co AdR o

fnem ese

u os
tAT)
aidtnie
PaSteuon

belie b hel d
Puon otefey o he Pou Conceived

uicelUhoo d GFey e UTob O ObseMÍ u u

oeuon 1eLes op do re d P u u d n bae d O

uhas he be e Obsenred

P(e) P
CEA-
(ena) 2 P( e]a) Pa)
CEA

This Ccn be &ub SnuHd In

ay 1-eoom ko O6 fam
CL&ena hve
cye gion

P(A19) = PCBTA) P tAJ

.PCB1A) PCA)
CreA
 Date
Page

Cus In a actoUy uo mo ne m& m2 maru Huu 601.

he COm o nen 9RIsecHy eL OUL OL
Hhe ro Fee Potadu CHo 2 O A, md
7 CO m
o be
Found efecHve IG
Oadomla dOuwn ou
(omponen Fonom - e Combned lo la Found decire
he no ba bii tho manen ecarud
b M1

PCM ) = P )PCN)
)
PCoo) - P m ) / m ) PCm)PC/Ki)

PLmel)
0 3 )x 0 +(0 o 2) 0 6

Bayesian In exeau TL 1 CAmehod O Se hshl C

jafeun U in wik Theouum 1 osed

opedc +e the Ponoba bu oun CA Po Heis Cy moUie

id u On in fo uma hon become auailQbie

Sayeson inbeunu 1 Cn Im poo1 e echwque

SPahshu especcAl in a e m a b cRSesh'a

Cnd

ennou ikeli hood Funci U

CA cUn huulau
fe oto haei y oF ObserVig
u mb en O n
he cds apc0" HuLlo
meo
ips Fon C Ciun Fcdoine ss o Coi'n H
daptndd
Poohube ry O obs e t v ing eady/ Fcai (s
e Ok Co i Ce)
 Date

Page

obs
P(y=e) e Pao6. 6
TL o i4Faur e 0
Py o | e) >CI-o) cuils Cy o ) is
O

oupousenhe he
noHac
Cnd O s

CAmod e l
Ct CCl COmbne
Obove
bo
o

biuy
a

O
Sgle
bo h He
0 4
Oukome
Uupouse e fU7o

Hs is Caed ennouR ui<eho od tuncHOn ng

Covn ippi e CCed Lenullstua

(17 Poeio eetie DisHou b u o

O
On beies Cabout he
PouTCme ey bast He
Pouu i Ous
expeuence.
T-e mo temo h col Funcho oSe oo
Pod o beie i be toubu hon
T ho Som e ve ce mceh-e mc c uto perwy
uHu enable mod el
beRee Cbo cu A
binoio disroi buho

Pon oba l i y
dAn y untion b e Fe disteu behon
O e ounm

t-x) BA)
O
fous
 Date

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T-e
e ocAto be be y daniy untHon o
tecUn ahon
o Cn e auu Co 1 e d e Sho e
deddi9 cLnAmeer
OFLe de S y unCKO heR Canctoo
tmben o neods &Le o o0A Cm oUUUu Pune
umben CD

Notel n p au nk ve b OndenSHend &1le he

Con bee CaR w l a e d by1noutng h e meon a ) and
SHndad deyiahon a ) o hee s U u buh0
ou lat d ay

1 PoStRuou 2eief Os toi burion

1he UOO tho a oose Pououn belie is Jo

Ob&aun C bete dis-Ou buHo THs 1 be (ause 4he

Aiply I qik a keiho od unch
un
Pos reuou dis Fou buion ieidu C founm Simoun

O dePouioo distoubuHon uN
eonie o oula Le o CAnd OndenSFend

Cc a Hr C TLeosAn
Posreun e e
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Page

C2,)
Pe N) -P7, Nle) Ce)_p
C - e)*, (I-6) L e CB) P i)

elzrd, N-2+JJ
-6)

beliek beom s
w, O Pos Heuon

PCelz+ -z+B)

Tust 1knouine he m eon Cnd Stendond

i ububos oF OUn beli e CAb0ul he PostotmeHen
Cand Obsenlrine
CCn p dae On be e C bau h e Mode Paacrnehen.l61
E uppose oo t i e C Loin i ased LL
ho amean ( as o CsTOUnd 6 6 Uu S lendad
deuionon

Then
-13 9 Bq2
e oun di tou bu Hon t b eased n e
ug de.

nospose 0 O6seAved so heody 2

M100) Tes (uon So) i t o o F S
Cd
Po-eu dn belce CUr
Poion ee, P(ei8& 2
PoSeoun Pe 2 M- 2 6)
-PLe| 39 2q
BAYESiAN NETUUORI

Ne k u a < Fa Und en - e
A Bayeian CoLego O
Poto ba b i s Hc nodeIie CPne) echnquu H a

1 Oed Comlu e Oen u b ireH

Concep OL

ne lOUlG Cum o mod COnd Hono

Boe &1Cin
deperdAnu Cnd d-erou CCu Sahon, upuseairg

Cond H o n c
depen deaU edgey ad Chd qnapk
TLtouqh ese
elaonc s s One Can eiuenku

COnduE JaFeten On He OTCndom

GiCph Ough e OSe OF etou

dou(ed CaCyie o t a p h i n ukU edge

Ti a

COouus Ponds CondiHonoi dRpendin G, and eau

LCndom LaiCble
nod e (OUUSfondg

uic Gua%
DucHed A

ind
bce Cn Ne a n l<,
T Osed
COnte C
Oren quta PL DAG Cnrei
SteshCC
j e Gny dino Hhe
HLe i n dino
nodls Ond inlu, he
OL
e o d es
OCHOnSHps blu OAG models e
o A
OCn
od e Onlen leLin ry
boued

On Me lOndi Hora (oro

2 DUHubuhn CPO) O
eOCK U1indom VaUasle
-tnt
 Date

Page

me a Uu O F
Join Pnokabei y i I io a
Same me e p(a
Cne 8).T
e
O A Cnd 6 ma
iobcbeiby oE He Sechon

vtte PCAn6).

ne
FaoTmA0a an edge CA B) s
Connecae tondom t a ua51sA ind e meo
Hheu P C61A) s cfecChoun in e oin obb
dyio bun o So w mus <nou C ) oun C
\alu O B Cnd A o Condu enu.

Fan e Couote a
bayio e
maunls (m) O Sudh k On Aamuha Fo
e
LaLevU

m ManKs PoiFoK JOU

e 6 6| 64
,e6
dmiso
2s eu

a
m 6
mo4o
 Date

TLe mcunky uu Page

ACm ev e (e) di Feulleay)

TO O e Suduns Ci)
Chgh lo
MUly -> Cacd tLe ) a ud re y
THe C CA hua Scoou CS)O he SHudA

Factoouur Toi Potobab ty DUtoubu hon

Pa,mi, eis) =Pa Im) Pmli, e u) P Ce) pCs\:)

P a Im): C O Sude Odm -> manlg
PCmli,d) C o he Shuden mcun l4 ->Io eam ievel
Ci)
P Cd) Potobabi k - Aam 1eve
CSi) C0 O CApu d SoRs- e .

The Puoba suy O C Utldcm auaLIe pends On h i

aun T aouu
nte u u o \
ayean
C

-- k) -
CxiOcny )

O te Bageton NeFuosleS SCaHSy He O CoL naUTkOV Utoenk

uHU Srate O C no a e i OndA HOnoRA nde pendR
O non- d e s Wdant