HYPOTHESIS

Following the scientific method, we come up with a question that we want to answer, we

do some initial research, and then before we set out to answer the question by
performing an experiment and observing what happens, we first clearly identify what we
"think" will happen.

We make an "educated guess."

We write a hypothesis.

We set out to prove or disprove the hypothesis.

What you "think" will happen, of course, should be based on your preliminary research
and your understanding of the science and scientific principles involved in your
proposed experiment or study. In other words, you don't simply "guess." You're not
taking a shot in the dark. You're not pulling your statement out of thin air. Instead, you
make an "educated guess" based on what you already know and what you have already
learned from your research.

If you keep in mind the format of a well-constructed hypothesis, you should find that
writing your hypothesis is not difficult to do. You'll also find that in order to write a solid
hypothesis, you need to understand what your variables are for your project. It's all
connected!

If I never water my plant, it will dry out and die.

That seems like an obvious statement, right? The above hypothesis is too simplistic for
most middle- to upper-grade science projects, however. As you work on deciding what
question you will explore, you should be looking for something for which the answer is
not already obvious or already known (to you). When you write your hypothesis, it
should be based on your "educated guess" not on known data. Similarly, the hypothesis
should be written before you begin your experimental procedures—not after the fact.

A Step in the Process

Keep in mind that writing the hypothesis is an early step in the process of doing a
science project. The steps below form the basic outline of the Scientific Method:

1. Ask a Question
2. Do Background Research
3. Construct a Hypothesis
4. Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
5. Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
6. Communicate Your Results
Hypotheses Tips
Our staff scientists offer the following tips for thinking about and writing good
hypotheses.

 The question comes first. Before you make a hypothesis, you have to clearly
identify the question you are interested in studying.
 A hypothesis is a statement, not a question. Your hypothesis is not the
scientific question in your project. The hypothesis is an educated, testable
prediction about what will happen.
 Make it clear. A good hypothesis is written in clear and simple language.
Reading your hypothesis should tell a teacher or judge exactly what you thought
was going to happen when you started your project.
 Keep the variables in mind. A good hypothesis defines the variables in easy-to-
measure terms, like who the participants are, what changes during the testing,
and what the effect of the changes will be. (For more information about
identifying variables, see: What are Variables? How to use them in Your Science
Projects.)
 Make sure your hypothesis is "testable." To prove or disprove your
hypothesis, you need to be able to do an experiment and take measurements or
make observations to see how two things (your variables) are related. You
should also be able to repeat your experiment over and over again, if necessary.

To create a "testable" hypothesis make sure you have done all of these things:

o Thought about what experiments you will need to carry out to do the test.
o Identified the variables in the project.
o Included the independent and dependent variables in the hypothesis
statement. (This helps ensure that your statement is specific enough.
 Do your research. You may find many studies similar to yours have already
been conducted. What you learn from available research and data can help you
shape your project and hypothesis.
 Don't bite off more than you can chew! Answering some scientific questions
can involve more than one experiment, each with its own hypothesis. Make sure
your hypothesis is a specific statement relating to a single experiment.

Putting it in Action
To help demonstrate the above principles and techniques for developing and writing
solid, specific, and testable hypotheses, Sandra and Kristin, two of our staff scientists,
offer the following good and bad examples.
What Is a Hypothesis?
Imagine you have a test at school tomorrow. You stay out late and see a movie with friends. You
know that when you study the night before, you get good grades. What do you think will happen
on tomorrow's test?
When you answered this question, you formed a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a specific, testable
prediction. It describes in concrete terms what you expect will happen in a certain circumstance.
Your hypothesis may have been, 'If not studying lowers test performance and I do not study, then
I will get a low grade on the test.'
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The Purpose of a Hypothesis

A hypothesis is used in an experiment to define the relationship between two variables. The
purpose of a hypothesis is to find the answer to a question. A formalized hypothesis will force us
to think about what results we should look for in an experiment.
The first variable is called the independent variable. This is the part of the experiment that can
be changed and tested. The independent variable happens first and can be considered the cause of
any changes in the outcome. The outcome is called the dependent variable. The independent
variable in our previous example is not studying for a test. The dependent variable that you are
using to measure outcome is your test score.
Let's use the previous example again to illustrate these ideas. The hypothesis is testable because
you will receive a score on your test performance. It is measurable because you can compare test
scores received from when you did study and test scores received from when you did not study.
A hypothesis should always:

 Explain what you expect to happen

 Be clear and understandable
 Be testable
 Be measurable
 And contain an independent and dependent variable

How to Develop a Hypothesis

Another important aspect of a hypothesis is that it should be based on research. Remember that
the purpose of a hypothesis is to find the answer to a question. The first thing you should do if
you want to answer a question is to find as much information on the topic as you can. Before you
come up with a specific hypothesis, spend some time doing research. Then, start thinking of
questions you still have. After thoroughly researching your question, you should have an
educated guess about how things work. This guess about the answer to your question is where
your hypothesis comes from.
Let's imagine that you want to know why the leaves on the tree in your front yard change color in
the fall. First, you would research this phenomenon. You observe what you see happen and read
about the subject. You discover that the color change happens when the temperature cools. What
question does this information make you ask?
You come up with the following question: 'Does temperature cause the leaves to change color on
the tree in my front yard?' Next, you ask yourself if this can be tested. If it can be tested, you'll
write a hypothesis that states what you expect to find. Your hypothesis could be 'If lower
temperatures cause leaves to change color and the temperature surrounding a tree is decreased,
then the leaves will change color.'

Possible hypotheses
1. If the storm moves in more slowly then the wind will be weaker and the air will be
warmer.
2. If the light source moves faster than the sun in the sky then the sunflower will speed up
its rotation.
3. If the water slope the water follows is steeper the water will move faster downhill.
4. If the dog's bed is puffier then the dog will do more tight circles before laying down.
5. If the wiring in the switch in the circuit is reversed then the light bulb will not illuminate
when the switch is switched on.

Notice all of these possible hypotheses are "if - then" statements.

RESOURCES

https://www.sciencebuddies.org/blog/a-strong-hypothesis