1.

To plan for the best possible course of action

Policy Forecasting among the various alternatives which the future may 1. Quantitative methods: Time Series, Regression
Analysis
offer
Process of predicting future direction / action - Method that relies on hard data / statistics and
towards a problem (policy agenda): 2. To use the past and present situation to determine statistical model to predict and project future
- What kind of option is suitable to solve a the future states of a problem. direction
particular policy problem? Problem Process
- What action to take? – new policy, 3. To shape the future in an active manner in relations 2. Qualitative Methods (Judgmental)
modifying policy, terminating policy to what has happened in the past. - Methods that relies on the opinions and judgments
of human being (individual or group of panel) to
predict future direction.
- The panels make decision based on their expert
judgment (knowledge, personal experience, and
intuition)
Purpose of Methods of
Forecasting Forecasting
Definition of
Terms 1. In-accuracy of info / data
2. Data is expensive & difficult to
access
CHAPTER 4 : 3. Limitation of forecasting methods
POLICY and techniques
1. Inducement: either positive such as tax 4. Invalid expert opinion
FORECASTING &
credit holiday or negative in nature such as 5. Personal bias
FORMULATION
fines and charges impose for pollution. 6. In-accuracy of forecast
2. Regulatory: to control and regulate Problems of
behavior of people such as regulation Types / Category
Forecasting
governing pollution. of Policy Options

3. Enforcement: involves giving (enforcing) - Process of formulating (drafting) /

certain people rights or duties they deserve. Policy developing acceptable courses of action
Formulation / options for the selected policy agenda
For example, human rights legislation.

4. Allocation of power: where certain body - It involves 2 main elements/ activities

is charged with power to improve certain
situation, e.g. Parliamentary legislations,
executive orders, judicial decisions etc

5. Distributive: extends goods and services

to members of an organization as well as Authorization
distributing the cost of the goods among the -At this stage, assuming the course of action is
members of the organization. able to resolve problem and is cost effective,
E.g. government policies that impact now the political actor / policy maker will be
spending for welfare, public education, deciding on which policy recommendation /
highway and public safety causes of action proposed to be accepted /
authorized.
- This is done through political process (first
reading)
Analysis
In deciding which courses of action / policy
option to choose for a selected policy agenda,
policy maker (administrators) will be doing 2
main tasks:
i. Analyzing the courses of action
ii. Deciding which type / category of policy
option to introduce