Module 1

Management Science

- If you use quantitative approach- you’ll come up with optimal decision

Historical Development

US strengthen territorial- polarius project (counter attack to enemies)

Because of production process, they use management science (gawaan ng sasakyan- because of
machines production became faster)

Example in airconditioning how much horsepower is needed to cover a number of floor square ft

Use of cards in atm

7 STEPS OF PROBLEM SOLVING

Classification of Decision Making Process

Single-criterion: one objective

Multi-criteria- you want to achieve a lot in your objectives/ many objectives

Qualitative- subjective- manager’s judgment, experience, intuition more of an art than science

Ex. You want to know about freshmen experiences

Quantitative- objective, you address the problem, scientific

Why is quantitative better

There is no single solution (complex)

Model development- you’ll end up with good report generation if you have good and correct model

Example: determine the revenues of government and estimate 2025 revenue

You will conduct a model (linear regression, multiple regression)

Collect past 10 yrs of revenue

Check if data is linear in nature, or multiple regression

Generate now your 205 revenue

Module 2

Delphi method

-paramihan ng boto, majority of votes will win, must come up with a majority decision

Ex. Pagpili or pagvote ng Pope

Jury of executive opinion

-kuha opinion from a small group

Ex. Wala pang pope na Asian

Sales force composite

Ex. Sales person in Luzon, Vis and Min-get their indiv sals then come up with the nationa or overall sales

Consumer Market survey

-ask consumer what they prefer or need, so if you introduce the product to the market they would buy it

Causal Models

-variable x affects the y

-regression models

-independent and dependent variable

Ex. When you study for exam the result will be a good score

Time Series model

-attempt to predict future value

-independent variable is time element (daily, weekly, and monthly)

-dependent variable (relies on time such as sales, revenue, consumption)

-perform moving average, weighted moving average, exponentials, and the composition of time series
model (you have seasonality: trend), decomposition (you are separating trend from seasonality)
Regression Analysis

-predict the dependent variable based on the independent variable

Correlation Analysis

-measure the strength of the relationship between two variables

-not because there is high correlation between x and y it already means x is affecting y (this assumption
refers to causal effect)

-normal (Perason), not normal (Spearman)

-should only be between -1 and 1

Residual plot- differences between predicted and actual sales