13.

42 READING 8:
LONG TERM WAVE STATISTICS

SPRING 2004

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°A. H. TECHET & M.S. TRIANTAFYLLOU

1. Long Term Statistics

Structural design analysis of offshore structures over a long time, specifically the total life span of the

structure or T , requires knowledge of the short term statistics of waves at the system installation location.

Over the life of a platform or structure there are a total of i storms, one of these can also include a “storm”

which is described completely calm conditions, similar to the null set in probability. The probability of each

storm event is, Pi , which can also be looked at as the fraction of the total life of the structure over which a

certain storm, i, exists. Thus the life of each storm, Ti is dictated by equation 1.1.

(1.1) Ti = T Pi

From short term statistics we have the frequency of waves, upcrossings, exceeding a certain amplitude,

ao .

r
1 M2 −a2o /(2Mo ) 1 −a2o /(2Mo ) 1
(1.2) n(ao ) = e = e = µ
2π Mo T T

Where T is the average period of waves in a storm. So it is easy to find the total number of times the

level ao is exceeded in a storm i, given by Ni as

Ti
(1.3) Ni = n(ao ) Ti = µi
Ti

Where Ti is the life of the storm i, Ti is average period of the waves within that storm.
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The total number of times level ao is exceeded during the life of the structure then becomes:

X X T 2
(1.4) Nao = Ni = Pi e−ao /(2Mo i )
all i i
T

where Mo i is the zeroth moment of the spectrum of storm i. It is necessary to make the assumption that the

spectrum is narrow banded so that we can write the zeroth moment in terms of the significant wave height.

This simplifies the problem since the significant wave height is the data most often available that describe

sea conditions over a certain time period.

Next we can adjust the equation for total number of upcrossings to reflect a number of upcrossings

exceeding the height, ho which is simply defined as twice the amplitude, ao .

µ ¶
X T 2h2o
−
ζ2
(1.5) Nho = Pi e i

i
T

Equation 1.5 represents the total number of upcrossings past a level ho over a time interval T . The

total number of upcrossings past the mean water level, ho = 0, is given by equation 1.6.

X T
(1.6) No = Pi
i
T

Having determined the equation for the total number of waves exceeding a level ho and also the total

number of upcrossings during the life of the structure, we can find the probability of a wave height exceeding

a design height ho in equation 1.7

P 2 2
Nho i Pi TT e−2ho /ζi
(1.7) P (h > ho ) = = P i T
No i Pi T i

This equation represents the fraction of total waves above level ho . Realizing the life span of the structure,

T , is constant we can cancel it out of equation 1.7 and rewrite it in the form

P ³ 1 2 2
´
Nho i e−2ho /ζi Pi
Ti
(1.8) P (h > ho ) =
No
= P ³ 1 ´
i T
Pi
i
 LONG TERM STATISTICS 3

The numerator and denominator of equation 1.8 each have the form of the expected value formula for a

random process with random variables T and ζ. So we can rewrite the probability as

n 2 2
o
1
E T
e−2ho /ζ
(1.9) P (h > ho ) = n o
1
E T

Note the subscript i is dropped since T is the random variable and Ti is a single random event. Thus the

expected value of the random variable is the sum over all the ith random events. This can also be extended

to a random process.

We now have and equation for the probability of waves above a level that is not implicitly dependent on

the life span of the structure. In practical application the average wave period can be neglected (cancelled)

and the probability approximated by equation 1.10.

n 2 2
o
(1.10) P (h > ho ) ≈ E e−2ho /ζ

One valuable calculation is related to the hundred year wave. This is the wave that exceeds some value,

h1 00, on the average only once in every one hundred years.

N (# of waves over h100 ) 1 T

(1.11) P (h > h1 00) = = =
No (# of total upcrossings) 100 years/T 3.16 ∗ 109 seconds

Note: This equation takes into consideration 100 years with the appropriate number of leap years. So now

we have an equation for the probability of the hundred year wave.

n 2 2
o T
(1.12) E e−2h100 /ζ =
3.16e + 9

Where T is the average period of waves over all storms. In order to solve for h100 we must have statistics for

very rough storms with high significant wave heights. Smaller, more frequent, values of wave height do not

play a role in this calculation and it is only the most ferocious storms that contribute to this value. Thus you

can imagine in order to collect this data observations during major storms, hurricanes, typhoons, etc., must
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SPRING 2004 °A. H. TECHET & M.S. TRIANTAFYLLOU

be performed over time. Under these conditions it is too risky for human observation and often equipment

is lost at sea making obtaining this challenging.

From probability theory it is possible to approximate the probability of extreme events by using a Weibull

distribution in the form

³ ´γ
xo −x1


−
(1.13) P (x > xo ) = e x2 −x1




 
 



where x1 , x2 , and γ are estimated from historical data and x1 is a threshold level below which the statistics



will not effect the extremes.






2. Encounter Frequency

 
The principle motions of a ship or structure in seas are defined as surge, sway, heave, pitch, roll and yaw.



A diagram of the coordinate system is shown in figure 1. Waves incident on the structure or ship can be

Figure 1. Motion of a ship defined with a right handed coordinate system with forward
motion as the positive x-direction and positive heave upwards.

described as head seas, following seas, beam seas, or quartering seas depending on the incident direction.

Figure 2 illustrates the first three cases and quartering seas are defined as those that approach the ship from
 LONG TERM STATISTICS 5

the either the port (left) or starboard (right) stern quarter of the ship (between 90o and 180o or 180o and

270o ).

head seas

o
0


bow
beam seas
o o
midships 90
270
ωλ
stern
o
180
µ
following seas

Figure 2. Incident sea description. Figure at left shows head, beam and following seas.
The incident angle, µ, is measured from the bow (x-axis is µ = 0o ) counterclockwise.

The motion of a ship, forward or otherwise, effects the way incident waves are viewed by someone aboard

the vessel. For example if the ship is making way in head seas with a constant velocity, U , then the waves

will appear to meet the ship at a faster rate than the actual frequency of the waves. This new, or observed,

frequency is termed the encounter frequency, ωe . If the waves are incident on the ship at some angle, µ,

then the component of the speed of the ship in the direction of wave propagation is Ua = U cos µ. The wave

crests move at the phase speed, Cp = ω/k and the relative speed between the ship and the waves is

(2.1) Ur = Ua + Cp = U cos µ + ω/k

Thus it appears that the waves have a phase speed Ur such that

ωe ω
(2.2) Ur = = U cos µ +
k k
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SPRING 2004 °A. H. TECHET & M.S. TRIANTAFYLLOU

Using the dispersion relationship for waves in deep water we can rewrite the equation for encounter frequency

as

U ω2
(2.3) ωe = cos µ + ω
g

for ω > 0. In practice we usually have the encounter frequency since it is observed and we would like to

calculate the actual wave frequency, so taking equation 2.3 we can solve for frequency, ω.

( s )
g U cos µ
(2.4) ω= −1 ± 1 + 4ωe
2U cos µ g

Looking at the equation 2.4 we see that there are several possible solutions for ω. These are dependent

on the incident angle µ. For 4ωe U cos

g
µ
> −1 (real values of ω) we can look at different incident angles:

(1) HEAD SEAS: incident angle between −π/2 < µ < π/2 and the cosine of the angle is positive (cos µ > 0).

The encounter frequency is always positive for head seas.

(2) FOLLOWING SEAS: incident angle between π/2 < µ < 3π/2 and cos µ < 0. Here there are three

possible scenarios:

|U cos µ| > Cp , ωe < 0, ship overtakes waves

|U cos µ| = Cp , ωe = 0, ship “surfs” waves

|U cos µ| < Cp , ωe > 0, waves overtake ship

The final case, where the waves move faster than the ship, can tend to cause problems in controlling a vessel.

Especially when the seas are not directly from behind the ship. This effect is greatest in roll and yaw. When

a ship is moving with the waves but overtaking them it can also appear as if the seas are approaching from

the bow, thus the actual incident angle is ambiguous and could be µ or µ + π.

The effect of encounter frequency also changes the observed spectrum of the seas. Energy must be

preserved under the spectrum thus we can look at the following

(2.5) S(ωe ) |dωe | = S(ω) |dω|

 LONG TERM STATISTICS 7

S(ω)
(2.6) S(ωe ) = ¯ dωe ¯
¯ ¯
dω

We can find the derivative of encounter frequency by the actual frequency by using equation 2.3.

dωe 2ω
(2.7) =1+ U cos µ
dω g

So the spectrum of the encounter frequency becomes

S(ω)
(2.8) S(ωe ) = ¯¯ ¯
¯
2ω
¯1 + g U cos µ¯

This spectrum has an integrable singularity at

−g
(2.9) ω= .
2U cos µ

At this value of ω the encounter frequency is

g
(2.10) ωe = .
4U | cos µ|

Given U, µ, we can look the two cases with encounter frequency

ω|ω|
(2.11) ωe = ω + U cos µ
g

(1) if µ is in (−π/2, π/2) then ωe > 0 for ω > 0 and ωe > ω for ω > 0.
g
(2) if µ is in (π/2, 3π/2) then ωe < 0 for ω < 0 and for ω > U | cos µ| .
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 µ
ω
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SPRING 2004 °A. H. TECHET & M.S. TRIANTAFYLLOU

ω >0
ω= µ








ω



Figure 3. Encounter frequency versus actual frequency for following seas (cos µ < 0) and




ω > 0.










ω >ω

ω ω =ω

 

ω

2ω
4ω ω <ω
Figure 4. Encounter frequency versus actual frequency for the three conditions: head,
beam and following seas.